patrick.net

EBGuy
do you mind naming the CSA you use? Since you've had a good experience, I'd like to look them up and maybe try the out, see how they compare to my current one.

I've used numerous CSA's, they are great. Nearly all full in Northern Virginia area also, all waiting lists.

I dumped them due to heavy travel schedule and "inconsistent" cooking companions. Gardening is fabulous therapy, though I'm mostly just feeding the deer these days. They are like rats in these parts, and the only fencing that works is the pricey electric 9 footer type that the vineyards all use. With global heating, look for a movement towards gardening and a rejection of grass lawns and associated lawn mowing.

NVR
are you saying you habitually electrocute Bambi?

The NY Sun and reporter there broke the story on Costco, which has been picked up now in headlines globally. It is leading the local network news here in DC currently.

I'll say this though, it wouldn't suprise me to much if my posting it here was an early contribution to the fire rapidly spreading. It would have done so anyway, but....some patrick reader forwards it to someone, who sends it to 50 friends, and we've got conflageration.

I'd also bet Patrick readers comprised the largest group of early readers aware.

Of course the government controlled media in China are front paging it, they need to counter their restless population who are not very pleased with local food inflation there.

It is a non story in many ways. "Rationing" is such a hot word, brilliant attention getter if not a bit inflamatory.

No, not electrocuting any deer...at least yet. Fence is outrageously expensive and I don't have one. The fence just sends a strong message to them I suspect, though I wouldn't want to touch one myself. (note to cityfolk on this list, it is not wise to urinate on an electric fence)

If you were referring to the ex-girlfriend dining companions, I generally just show them the door without any electrocution involved. :-)

There are 20-30 deer in my yard every morning and evening, and on a typical nighttime ride to civilization, it is not unusual to count over 100 on a 20 minute ride.

Now I heard that the rice shortage story even got on CNBC.

I hate to say this, this is more likely than not caused by a bunch of rice-staple immigrants reading about shortage back home and reacting in the similar fashion at Costco. Most Americans don't even eat rice, if anything, the most common rice type should be superfino, not the Kokuho rice at Costco.

However, a much more likely scenario is personal entrepreneurship. When I read about the rice shortage and riots, the first thing that crossed my mind was, hmm, maybe I can ship some California rice there to make a profit. I bet someone already took action.

The NY Sun and reporter there broke the story on Costco, which has been picked up now in headlines globally.

Another first, the great Internet Rice Panic of 2008. I swear when we were sitting around the dinner table last night and I searched rice rationing at Google news the only stories in the US that came up were NVRs Sun article and the local newscast from CBS5 (both with April 21 datelines) that I had mentioned in my "Great Depression" post (on this thread). It is rather humorous. I mean, you think Costco might have had the sense to ration rice at say, all its Midwestern outlets, instead of in the heart of the freakin' Silicon Valley where it is a staple. Heck it is a staple at my home and I'm not Asian. And then all the $200k earning couples get on the internet and tell folks back home there are food shortages.

Whoops, see that OO and I are thinkin' alike again...

However, a much more likely scenario is personal entrepreneurship. When I read about the rice shortage and riots, the first thing that crossed my mind was, hmm, maybe I can ship some California rice there to make a profit. I bet someone already took action.

Yep. A true capitalist will see any crisis as an opportunity. It is not wrong to exploit because Free market will ultimately deliver the greatest good for all.

the most common rice type should be superfino, not the Kokuho rice at Costco.

More likely Uncle Ben's, I'd guess.

OK, now this rice hoarding thing is spreading to Walmart and Sam's Club.

I think someone ought to be camping out at LAX ports checking on outgoing cargo ship. This is definitely not a food shortage news in the US, this is a rice shortage story fueled by pricing arbitrage, from West to East. If Americans are truly hoarding for the fear of running out of food, why the heck are these white guys dipping their hands into our staple food? Hey, get back to your pasta please.

I think food speculation is a good thing. At least, it provides trading opportunities. At best, Free Market will have a chance to regulate over-population.

Besides, higher prices must be good right? :)

Ok, I need to "hoard" some rice now. When prices are good, can I just sell rice on craigslist? What should be the exit strategy?

Ok, now this is really getting outta control.

The Chinese yahoo equivalents are now putting Food rationing in America on their headlines. One of the articles says, "even rich areas like the Silicon Valley has to go under rice rationing".

How did a Costco outta-rice story in Mountain View (at least 30% Asian population) morph into a pan-American food rationing news headline?

How did a Costco outta-rice story in Mountain View (at least 30% Asian population) morph into a pan-American food rationing news headline?

LOL! This is becoming funnier and funnier.

Costco should have implemented rice auctioning instead of rationing. It should display the greatness of capitalism.

The best defense against food shortage is an efficient market.

Wow, it is absolutely nuts. The great rice panic. To think we here might have played a small early part.

It is only going to feed on itself. I have a friend who told me he picked up a couple big "bags" this afternoon even though he doesn't eat the stuff.

My local grocery 12 midnight EST was fully stocked, all types. I wonder what their rice shelf looks like right now. Sheeple see that on the news and feel compelled to get theirs before it is all gone.

LMAO

:-)

OO

With you on the arbitrage theory, better than my expat asian hoarding theory.

I'd just add that the most likely "hoarders" are costco, walmart, and ilk sitting with warehouse inventory. Accelerate returns. They may just be doing it themselves, or better yet montetizing forward contracts so that their own supplies reduce.

OK, the NBC nightly news lead:

1. Hillary's win in PA

And #2. "RATIONING" OF RICE by major US retailers

Let the great rice panic begin! :-)

Rough Rice is up more than 2.5% today on CBOT:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_RR.N08

And #2. “RATIONING” OF RICE by major US retailers
Hmmm, my last words to my wife at the table last night were (cribbed from a CR poster): Don't panic. But if you do, make sure you are first.
I really hope she picked some up today. :-) Although, I am less worried about it at this point than I was last night... I can always conduct a raid off Peter P's cache.

Don’t panic. But if you do, make sure you are first.

First rule of panic: be the first to panic. :)

I can always conduct a raid off Peter P’s cache.

Since we don't cook much we have less than 1lb of rice at home. We have some macaroni though.

There is no point in hoarding food. In time of crisis people with guns will loot your hoardings. People with bigger guns always win. Start buying guns Peter P.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_9026803?nclick_check=1

Here is some rationing that we all need to worry about. According to my father-in-law, Bay Area went through a big drought in the 70s and was put under water rationing. One of the fastest growing business back then was lawn painting, people coming out with paint guns to paint your dead lawn green.

There will be no food crisis here. Only countries with too many people need to worry.

According to my father-in-law, Bay Area went through a big drought in the 70s and was put under water rationing.

This is why we must deregulate water. Price is the best rationing mechanism. (Thanks HARM for pointing that out.)

Sent an email off to a friend in China to ask if he had heard about our rationing. He mentioned that inflation is the topic de jour on the street as many food prices have doubled within the last year (oil, pork, etc.) -- basically confirming what OO has mentioned in his posts.

I was having a hard time understanding the dynamics of the Great Rice Panic of 2008, but I think this post by ocbear from Ben's blog has cleared it up for me.
Costco is running short because their price is 50% less then the Asian stores. 50lb in any of the local Asian supermarkets was $40 two weeks ago and going up. Costco 25lb bag was $10. They can’t keep it in-stock. I bought 2 when the brand I wanted came back in-stock. Someone else was buying 10 - she was afraid that the price would go up. And I take back what I said about it being a staple in my household. We eat a decent amount, but not that much!

So the "shortage" was due to Costco's mispricing of rice. When prices are set correctly, there will be no shortage.

So to tie together the disparate ends of this thread, should we use our stimulus checks to hoard rice? :)

So to tie together the disparate ends of this thread, should we use our stimulus checks to hoard rice?

LOL!

The word "hoard" has too much negative connotation. Let's say "invest" instead. :)

Peter P wrote: "Yep. A true capitalist will see any crisis as an opportunity."

You misspelled "amoral opportunist."

EBGuy do you mind naming the CSA you use? Since you’ve had a good experience, I’d like to look them up and maybe try the out, see how they compare to my current one.
BAI, it's Full Belly. Admittedly, they do seem to be the Walmart of the CSA scene. Not like some of the smaller ones where it is more of a "hands-on" experience (which you may, or may not, want). Their variety is impressive, but they did just raise their prices so there may be a "better value" out there.

I agree. I think he's over at Zillow these days.

Bap, thou shalt not invoke the name of GC. Yuck.

HARM says: F*ck the Jones’s. “Rich” is a state of mind.

A belated "right on", Brother HARM.

For all our wealth compared to the third world, Americans are impoverished for joy and fulfilment. Our true goal should be to provision well for ourselves (food, medical care, retirement) and then spend our lives attaining a minimum of possessions and a wealth of love, joy and kindness. We live in an age where wireless connections have replaced human connections, and where pursuit of finished square footage has been confused with the pursuit of happiness.

Dick and Jane can keep their McCrapshack. A 4000 sq.ft. lot is best used as a 3000 sq.ft. garden. :)

Holy *&^$%#$. Just watched the Monsanto documentary. What an eye opener. We belong to a great CSA in San Jose....Live Earth Farm. It is $30 a week and for us, it is well worth the cost. We get a ton of food for that price....all organic.

sbg,

I am on the waiting list of Live Earth, looks like I need to wait till 2009.

I was on the waiting list as well. It often opens up mid season. It is worth the wait :-)

Here is an interesting graph from CalculatedRisk, which maps declines in new-home sales with an overlay of past recessions. CR's point is that new home sales were falling prior to every recession (except one).

However, I am looking at this graph and trying to figure out if there is a different correlation as well. It looks to my eye that the depth of the fall also is somewhat indicative of the duration of the recession. Of course, this is just _one_ metric (new home sales), and without looking at the raw numbers it is hard to draw any sort of conclusion, but just eyeballing the chart looked that way to me.

Here is the link to the graphic:
http://tinyurl.com/4gdddl

And I forgot to add: if that correlation I observed is true, then all I can say about the current plunge in new home sales is YIKEY! Looks like a multi-year recession to dig out of this one...