patrick.net

shrekgrinch says

Americans in general are thorough hypocrites on this type of ‘Ok, so you want A,B,C government, are you willing to pay X,Y,Z taxes for it?’ the-rubber-is-meeting-the-road kind of decisions.

Well... this IS where the rubber meets the road, right? After all Brown claims that if the tax increase doesn't go through there will be an all-cuts no-tricks budget this time around.

Whether that is true or not is another matter, of course...

SF ace says

It’s technically just extending what we already pay.

Hmm... but wasn't this a temporary emergency tax increase passed in 2008 to 'plug the gap'? I wasn't here at the time and I'm not clear on this history.

SF ace says

Here’s how it shakes out. tax measure does not make it into June Ballot, too late for that. Rep want a little leverage going into budget season. CA can’t bridge the tax issue to Novembver ballot without selling massive bonds and it’s not guaranteed to pass anyway. Budget season extended to record terrortory and in the end a budget with the tax extension and major budget cut with some sale of bonds to reconcile the balance.

Maybe. I expect some extended monkey-business is forthcoming, if nothing else.

An update on the slogging:

California budget: Talks between Brown, GOP break down -- again
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2011/03/talks-between-brown-gop-break-down-again.html

and the extended monkey-business:

Koch-Backed Group Targets California Republicans in Tax Fight
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29/koch-backed-group-targets-california-republicans-in-tax-fight.html

shrekgrinch says

How is exercising one’s rights to both free speech and petitioning of government officials to redress grievances qualify as ‘monkey-business’?

Maybe I'd like a little more out-of-state influence over what gets taxed or not in Wichita, and I'm just jealous...

I don't think it matters who buys which politician this spring - Brown is not really going to follow through with an all spending-cuts budget. If he REALLY feels like a tax extension/increase won't make it onto the June ballot, he'll try for November or increase taxes by some other way.

Ok... I forgot that prop 25 still required a 2/3 majority to raise taxes. But prop 26 doesn't limit ALL fee increases to a 2/3 vote, right? Seems like some wiggle room to raise fee/taxes here - particularly as 'budget-related' votes only require a simple majority now.

shrekgrinch says

So, if he doesn’t cut the budget…where’s the money going to come from? Whats the gap now? $24 billion or so? That’s a lot of dough for even California.

About half of this would have been covered by Brown's proposed cuts. I think the remaining 12 billion or so could be somehow fudged over by a combination of further cuts, some sneaky tax/fee increases, and yes, some tricksy accounting.

shrekgrinch says

Like I said in other postings, when the rubber meets the road then the pols might start thinking ‘out of the box’ and establish a state bank to provide credit financing instead of the bond markets.

Sweeeet - can we print our own money? Think QE-local edition... let the good times roll!!!

shrekgrinch says

BTW, for Patrick and Troy…here’s a site pushing for a Single LVT Reform in California: http://www.prospercalifornia.com/

Well something needs to be done - between the exhausting bureaucratic bullshit, high taxes, high cost of living (and operating) in most populated coastal areas, and ease of outsourcing just about any job, I can't see how California is going to appeal to business investment in the future. Particularly for small business startups (unless they focus on selling yuppie crap to tourists).

It is sad that Republicans in the legislature are blocking the people from voting on the tax extensions. Government of the people, for the people, by the people..... scrap that....apparently we are a nation ran by special interest which has more rights and privileges than the people.

ChrisLA says

It is sad that Republicans in the legislature are blocking the people from voting on the tax extensions.

I'm surprised that they didn't make the deal, given the leverage they had. Particularly since the tax extension was unlikely to pass this summer anyhow.

The idea of direct democracy is great in principle, but it seems like California is way to big to make it work well.

ChrisLA says

Government of the people, for the people, by the people….. scrap that….apparently we are a nation ran by special interest which has more rights and privileges than the people.

Buckle up... 1884, here we come!

A good link summarizing the current state of the state, and likely paths forward at this point:

California’s budget deadline looming
http://www.thereporter.com/news/ci_17817814

Looks like SF ace is on the money so far. IOU's anyone?

SF ace says

Here’s how it shakes out. tax measure does not make it into June Ballot, too late for that. Rep want a little leverage going into budget season. CA can’t bridge the tax issue to Novembver ballot without selling massive bonds and it’s not guaranteed to pass anyway. Budget season delay to record terrortory and in the end a budget with the tax extension and major budget cut with some sale of bonds to reconcile the balance. It’s been like this for the last 10 years, nothings going to change.