patrick.net

@RG

I do not know if there is enough demand to support those prices but there is enough demand for houses in areas where the schools have 800+ API. The demand is mainly driven by the Indian and Chinese population but Whites create the foundation. Crappy places in Los Gatos will sell for a price higher than the best say in East bay or even Morgan Hill. Reason is simple, good community plus 800 plus API (900+ API is ideal). The demand is high for 900+ API, supply is less.

It's not about the schools alone, the neighbourhood itself is great.
you would see so many kids playing safely in the streets, Couples with strollers as compared to any other parts of san jose or even cupertino.

You'll find people with ettiqutte they will give you right of way during driving and smile ( No rush) and wish you or smile at you if you are walking.

And since the dominant culture is of niceness then whatever percentage of people are joining nicer communities tend to follow the "general rules of being nice" unlike cupertino where sometimes people are waiting on the sidewalk but people are in rush to hop on to freeway because they have to work their Ass off to pay that mortgage....

Can't write it all but drive by or Spend some weekends in the parks around here and you would be able to notice the difference.

@newbie

I was specifically talking about Cambrian. I spend 90% of my time following houses in that area. Of course demand/prices are local. However, macro economic trends should affect all regions. If all the tech jobs get off shored who is going to pay half a million bucks for a wooden box on 4000 sqft of land?

@cloud13

I live in downtown San Jose now and don't think it's all that bad. I do see people out pushing their kids around. And the parks nearby all have kids playing in them. There aren't that many kids playing in the streets, but that is a good thing. Streets are for cars not kids ;).

Other than the schools, I don't see much different about the Cambrian area....

newbie says

I think the deals are good for the price & location. What do you think?

Some of the ones on redfin are sold at loss. Im sure many prior buyers thought the same way when they paid $600-700K, but that didnt stop prices from falling.

Anyway, many of these homes were around $200K and some much less before the bubble (1998), and than doubled quickly. But as you can see below under normal times, prices bearly moved with inflation, schools or no schools.

FWIW, prices are still irrational. Do the math. Your looking at around 300K at the most.

And NO! interest dont matter, between 1988 and 1995, interest rates did fall as well. Did the price go up ? only at rate of inflation. But we didnt have this irrational thinking amoung buying public back then. Why do so many try to rationalize these bubbles today?

What cost $152,000 in 1988 would cost $195,190.59 in 1995. What cost $200,000 in 1995 would cost $283,288.50 in 2010. (from inflation calculator)

Property History for 1814 LITTLE BRANHAM Ln
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
May 13, 2011 Price Changed $509,900 -- MLSListings #81116025
Apr 12, 2011 Listed (Active) $529,900 -- MLSListings #81116025
Feb 24, 2011 Sold (Public Records) $460,577 -- Public Records
Nov 21, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 11.4%/yr Public Records
Mar 31, 1999 Sold (Public Records) $279,000 9.3%/yr Public Records
Mar 31, 1995 Sold (Public Records) $195,500 3.7%/yr Public Records
Apr 06, 1988 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 -- Public Records

@ RG:

It's not just schools but also It's the quality of people you interact with them and their mannerism. Youc can't live in isolation. you would actually be walking to some park, Buying at some store ....you know mundane things in life also matter.

And then your kid is going to follow the same example...they learn by observation.

For starters visit the Farmer's Market in cambrian on Wednsday's annd the visit the Farmer's market some place else ( say Beryessa near pidemont road)........you'll find that people are generally nice.

cloud13 says

It’s not just schools but also It’s the quality of people you interact with them and their mannerism.

I guess the former buyers long before the bubble didnt get charged for the quality of the people and their "mannerism". Perhaps didnt get charged for the weather, schools, farmers markets, or wine festivals which were around for decades past. Are we now charging through the nose for all this, a new hidden tax for all of this?

@ thomas.wong :

It's a hard fact of life....the residential segregation happens over time :-)

Best neighborhoods saturate, Better neighborhoods attract better people who can't afford in the so called best neighbourhoods.

The glaring example of this is cupertino/Saratoga. People started buying in Cupertino because they couldn't afford saratoga and over time Cupertino is eqaully good......It's saturated.

The same will happen to cambrian.

@cloud13

Sorry, but you sound like someone trying to jusify where you are living. I've lived all over the bayarea:

1. Sunnyvale
2. Palo Alto x 2
3. Santa Clara
4. Newark
5. San Jose Downtown x 3

None seemed any "nicer" than any other place. I visit farmers markets in 2 or 3 locales (san jose downtown, los gatos, san francisco). I go to stores all over and I drive all over. I go to parks all over (los gatos, saratogs, san jose , sunnyvale, marin, palo alto, san carlos, foster city, salinas and so on). No one place seems to have "nicer" people than any other place. They all have an equal number of douche bags.

My quality of life is just fine downtown . By far and large the biggest contributor to MY quality of life is the commute. The shorter the better.

I suppose if I stayed home all day (like my wife and son) the stuff within walking distance would matter the most. Luckily the children's museum and many parks are nearby. What great kids places are in Cambrian?

Schools are #1 on my list of criteria for buying... otherwise it would be best to rent cheap and put my kid into private school.

cloud13 says

It’s a hard fact of life….the residential segregation happens over time
Best neighborhoods saturate, Better neighborhoods attract better people who can’t afford in the so called best neighbourhoods.
The glaring example of this is cupertino/Saratoga. People started buying in Cupertino because they couldn’t afford saratoga and over time Cupertino is eqaully good……It’s saturated.
The same will happen to cambrian.

By the numbers growth in Bay Area has been flat since 2000. Jobs and employers however have brutaly declined.

You could make that argument back say in the early 80s as we saw both population and jobs in new Tech industry grow. Were things different ? Same Farmers markets, same wine festivals, same families, etc etc. Did we see back in the 80s home prices doube/triple in a few short years for the same reason of saturation.

Saturation in hype only!

RG says

@cloud13

Sorry, but you sound like someone trying to jusify where you are living.

Clearly. And I'll bet he's loads of fun at parties. "Wow, you live in Cambrian? Uh-huh." yawn "Residential segregation? Really? points to wall I'm going to turn this way now".

pkowen says

Residential segregation

All it shows is that sellers in cupertino/PA have will have to compete with sellers in So San Jose in a declining market with lower sales volumn and and lowering prices.

@cloud13 - You have a valid point of community behavior and affinity of a particular group of people with similar traits and needs to coalesce. Yes, people in Los Gatos are comparatively more polished in their behavior as compared to people living in in communities with utility trucks parked on the road overnight. There is a price to it. This is the reason I am looking at Cambrian area and not Evergreen (do not like bumper to bumper aggressive traffic).

I did drive around Cambrian and found it to be a nice neighborhood... becomes nicer as you go South towards Los Gatos.

@thomas.wong1986

Your points are very valid. However, as you also noted that inflation is not the only contributor for price increase. You can buy a house in Union City, Valejo, Stockton, etc. for a price lesser than the amount it would take to build the same house. The material cost will be higher than the price it is selling for.

The main contributor is demand. Demand created by immigrants mostly from India and China. However, as RG rightly said, if jobs are not created, there will be no inflow of people, hence, no demand.

I wish I could rent forever. Given a choice, I'd do that. But I am married. Nothing against the married female sex. Its just that I'm tired of yap yap yap about having our own home (a big contributor towards creation of demand).

newbie says

The main contributor is demand. Demand created by immigrants mostly from India and China.

LOL! Good God! Like I said, no population growth.

newbie says

The material cost will be higher than the price it is selling for.

The wood that comes from the mills is the same wood that goes to same parties.

1. What creates the demand? Not so much of tech jobs, but easy lending: FHA, Fannie Mae, etc. If you squeeze the credit standards, the demand goes down, despite tech jobs.

2. Linkedin IPO is another factor that increases the demand!

thomas.wong1986

San Jose Population (* Forecast - Source: City of San Jose Planning)

1990 782,248
1995 825,300
2000 894,943
2005 941,435
2010 945,942
2015* 1,063,600
2020* 1,137,700
2025* 1,219,500
2030* 1,299,700
2035* 1,380,900

raindoctor says

2. Linkedin IPO is another factor that increases the demand!

creates a bubble not demand, as similar hype created the tech and later housing bubble by year 2000. After all its free money.

look back to all the prior IPOs before 1995, can you ever see such irrational behavior from IPOs. Cisco went IPO back in early 90s but their stock prices like so many others before went up based on fundementals not hype.

After 1995, everyone lost their minds, and that hasnt changed much even today. Will see at what price LinkedIn shares will trade after 6 months and employee's lock out shares hits the market.

newbie says

Forecast - Source: City of San Jose Planning

Right! Give them A's in Financial Analysis.

Forecast - Source: Bible

1990 782,248
1995 825,300
2000 894,943
2005 941,435
2010 945,942
2011 June 734,233 (rapture)
2011 Aug 314,933 (earthquake)
2011 Sept 199,921 (plague)
2011 Oct 0

@pkowen: This thread is about cambrian , so I'm expressing my views on this neighbourhood.

@RG : May be the difference is subtle , you need to spend the entire
evenning or afternoon in a park (just like as if you are living there).

@Thomas Wong: I know you are right to some extent, The home prices
are overpriced ( See all my posts from the past) but should i be
waiting another 5 years, 7 years or 10 years ?
And In the end I'm only provdiing feedback to the people who are on
the verge of buying and expressing my views about neighbourhoods
rather than "Is it the right time time to buy"

@cloud13

I guess I'm just too uncultured to notice...

cloud13 says

@pkowen: This thread is about cambrian , so I’m expressing my views on this neighbourhood.

Yeah I know, It's clear to everyone you feel very special about being in Cambrian.

I lived there for two years, 2005-07. I know the area very well. I liked it ok, but wasn't particularly enamored with it. I was totally astounded at the crap they were pushing then for $800k+. So now it's $650k. Still over-priced. In the big scheme Cambrian is an old suburban area, pretty unimpressive and average. It is car dependent. Willow Glen is nearby, but Cambrian is not equivalent to Willow Glen. I never 'hung out' in Cambrian, nor would I. I went into Willow Glen or elsewhere.

But don't let me rain on your parade.

Willow Glen is good if you plan to send your kids to private schools. Other than Booksin/Bagby Elementary they do not have much to offer. The situation may improve. I'd prefer Willow Glen over Cambrian if it had good public schools.

@ thomas.wong1986:

WRT population forecasts: I thought you talked sense most of the time. This time your observation is biased may be because you are a landlord and want everyone to rent forever. Do you have any other source of population forecast data? I'd like to see that.

Good deal. Considering the prices and the school areas.

newbie says

@ thomas.wong1986:
WRT population forecasts: I thought you talked sense most of the time. This time your observation is biased may be because you are a landlord and want everyone to rent forever. Do you have any other source of population forecast data? I’d like to see that.

Not a LL or Renter. Owner in Los Gatos since early 90s. My career in Accounting currently Controller for hightech company. I have no interests in investment real estate. If anything people should be buying at prices more reasonable not to tip over the local economy. My message has been buy only at pre-bubble 1996-97 prices plus inflation (30-40%). And that is where we are headed for. http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

As far as population growth and prices, thats bogus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Clara_County,_California#Demographics

While we had near doubling of population in the past, 1960s we didnt see prices doubling to the extent as in the prior 10 years. Current growth has gone down to mid single digits form prior decades. There are also plenty of articles regarding out migration from CA in general over the past 10 years.

What is more important is we are not seeing the industry/job growth we once had in the 80s. From a few public companies to over 340 by 1994 to over 400 by year 2000, and now down to low 200s.

Fact is, over the past 10 years jobs have migrated outward from the region due to high home costs, which are at the end the day are the burdens of employers. As such everyone is at risk, renter, owner, or new buyers as home prices have inflated well beyond any income support.

Whosoever bought the above 2 properties is at least sitting on 200k equity now.

He He....Thomas.wong we've been seeing only in-migration looking at the 6 SFH we own in 95124 bordering LG. you would be surprised that someone from Canada signed a lease looking at the house over Skype . Isn't that amazing ?

RG says

@cloud13

I live in downtown San Jose now and don't think it's all that bad. I do see people out pushing their kids around. And the parks nearby all have kids playing in them. There aren't that many kids playing in the streets, but that is a good thing. Streets are for cars not kids ;).

Other than the schools, I don't see much different about the Cambrian area....

I was talking to a homeowner in the Naglee area. Nice craftsman houses with basements, decent sized lots. She did complain about the homeless as well as the loud San Jose State students. If you can put up with that downtown can be pretty nice.

thomas.wong1986 says

While we had near doubling of population in the past, 1960s we didnt see prices doubling to the extent as in the prior 10 years.

Go over to the Orchards supply on Blossom Hill and Meridian. They have a huge picture of what the valley looked like in the late 50s early 60s. Nothing but fields. Ok, the population doubled, so what? Plenty of room to build new houses then.

Now? Not so much. The population per sqft is MUCH greater now with far far less open space to expand to.

Thasssrite Newbie!

Outsource the parenting responsibilities to Statistic of The Standardized Test Score.

Be a Quant!

How Hip is that? Very, and Cool too. No need for boots in the ground investigation, just zip! hip! statistic!

New Renter says

Nothing but fields. Ok, the population doubled, so what? Plenty of room to build new houses then.

Now? Not so much. The population per sqft is MUCH greater now with far far less open space to expand to.

and still more space to make more homes.. as was the case of the Lumber company near downtown Mountain View off Evelyn now rentals and new homes...

not to mention all the new homes in the revamped downtown Sunnyvale Mall.

anyway, the point I want to make is.. WE had a great booming economy to support

buyers as we grew to become Silicon valley for the past 50+ years... We actually

reached 400public companies by year 2000.. but nearly 13 years later we are down

to only 200 .. we lost a lot of employers over the past decade.. Not happy at all and it

sucks...

Today we may be close to 1950-60 as to jobs locally vs year peak 2000 ...

we are no where near the boom times with good growing incomes.

I'm not sure what your point is, Evelyn still has a Lumber Co., Sunnyvale lumber only a short distance from downtown MV. There are many auto repair shops along Evelyn between downtown MV and Sunnyvale. There is still quite a bit of good old fashioned blue collar industry in that area.

Mintons Lumber .. now its Apt buildings...

http://www.mv-voice.com/news/show_story.php?id=3614

Early next year construction will begin on 203 apartments and an underground parking garage on the site. Young professionals are expected to take up residence here, replacing the woodworkers, homeowners and contractors that frequented Minton's.

And certainly around that area we saw new developments go up over the past 5-10 years.

very difficult to say we have limited land for development. There is always new homes going

up even in the most odd areas..

thomaswong.1986 says

Mintons Lumber .. now its Apt buildings...

http://www.mv-voice.com/news/show_story.php?id=3614

Again what's the problem? We NEED more residential housing in the SFBA.

New Renter says

Again what's the problem? We NEED more residential housing in the SFBA.

yep,,, and we are getting it.. no problem.

If only we were growing jobs equally.. which we are not.

Out jobs are dismal... we are employing far fewer today than decades ago...

the vast majority of SV Tech jobs are outside of the region...

If jobs are moving out Thomas then who are these people who are buying these houses developed at these former mill sites ?

thomaswong.1986 says

New Renter says

Again what's the problem? We NEED more residential housing in the SFBA.

yep,,, and we are getting it.. no problem.

If only we were growing jobs equally.. which we are not.

Out jobs are dismal... we are employing far fewer today than decades ago...

the vast majority of SV Tech jobs are outside of the region...

So what? There are still plenty of Chindian billionaires to buy whatever is built at overinflated prices.

Morgan Hill is ridiculous and the school test scores suck.

The people buying homes these days aren't the ones living in them.

It's like a buffet that's run out of food. You're so hungry that they could bring out stuffed crap rolls and there'd be a throng that cleans out the tray before it's even set down.