patrick.net

I’m like you, Kurt. I just use realtor.com and local listings. That information would be priceless for negotiations. Then again, that is probably the point in having limited access to that info.

Without full MLS access, my approach to building a history on properties in my local area is to drive around, collect flyers, and date them. This is how I noticed the San Anselmo place had dropped to $774K. I figure if someone really knows the area, they'll be in a better bargaining position.

The ditech instant home appraisal calculator that I heard about on this blog at least tells what the last sale price for the house was, and when it last sold. Not a complete history of changing hands, but it's helpful to know.

http://www.ditech.com/calculators/appraisal/form.do

I just looked up that San Anselmo house that KurtS posted, and it came up with the following valuation:

Last Sale Price: $537,000.00
Last Sale Date: 07/27/2004
High Value Estimate: $690,000.00
Low Value Estimate: $590,000.00

Interesting that even after a price reduction, they're still asking more than this particular calculator's high estimate of the property's value.

I just looked up that San Anselmo house that KurtS posted, and it came up with the following valuation:

Last Sale Price: $537,000.00
Last Sale Date: 07/27/2004
High Value Estimate: $690,000.00
Low Value Estimate: $590,000.00

Wow! You rock for looking that up!
I smell a flipper--good luck!

I was thinking the same thing--smells like a flipper. Kind of makes me want to do a random sampling of a a couple hundred remodeled houses listed in the BA on realtor.com and see how many of them have changed hands in the past year or so...anyone wanna help? We could each pick a town...

I was thinking the same thing–smells like a flipper. Kind of makes me want to do a random sampling of a a couple hundred remodeled houses listed in the BA on realtor.com and see how many of them have changed hands in the past year or so…anyone wanna help? We could each pick a town…

How do you do that? Do you just type in the address on ditech and they give you the info? If it's that easy count me in.

SHmend–the MLS keeps track of all that info, but you have to be a realator (or know one very well ) to access it. I actually had this type of access earlier in the year. the flipping activity was astronomical

Yuan

Do you have any numbers/stats on the amount of flipping going on? There are those (who shall remain unnamed :roll: ) who claim that speculation in the market is overstated and that it's just a bear's argument against normal price appreciation. It would be nice to have someone with first hand knowledge to back those of us who think speculation has been rampant.

SactoQt, for the Ditech appraisal calculator, yes, you type in the address. It requires the complete address (which realtor.com doesn't always give), I think, and it's a tiny bit cumbersome in that you have to select from a few menus--like a million different words for "Street."

I will try it (and time it) with a few more properties later just to see how time-consuming it would be to do.

what public records are available? what is only on MLS?

Real estate sales information is public record. Historical data is not always so easy to acquire (most towns don't have those records online), but it is also in MLS. Naturally info like square footage is public too.

MLS also keeps history like listing dates, days on market, relisting, listed and withdrawn, etc. That's private stuff. Also photos.

Note that this stuff is actually copyrighted data. They also claim a copyright on their collection of public information. Sketchy, but it has precedent.

The NAR doesn't exactly own MLS. I lied. The local Realtor® organizations own the MLS for their area. I think they generally organize by state, since RE laws are different enough. This is why you see different information on listings from different areas. There's a lot of stuff in there, only some of which is exposed.

SactoQt, for the Ditech appraisal calculator, yes, you type in the address. It requires the complete address (which realtor.com doesn’t always give), I think, and it’s a tiny bit cumbersome in that you have to select from a few menus–like a million different words for “Street.”

I'll have to play with it too. I know yahoo maps will give zip codes when you look for directions, so I think that could help with complete addresses. This could be such a great tool when you go looking for a house; not only would you know the history of the house you're looking at, but you could look at the activity in the whole neighborhood. Plus, sometimes it's just fun to be nosy. :grin:

The ditech instant home appraisal calculator that I heard about on this blog at least tells what the last sale price for the house was, and when it last sold.

Not always the case, however. I have been using that appraisal calculator for a while, looking up my current property and others I have owned....some of the results do not pan out with the correct info. If the property has been refinanced, that may show as the "last sale price". 2 cases: I refinanced in 2003 but it doesn't show...it shows my original purchase price (1999). But I know of a home that was purchased in 1989, and it was refinanced in 1999...it shows $0.00 sales price but has the date of the refinance as the "last sale date".

BayQT~

MLS also keeps data like "waterfront", "park-like view", "3-car parking", etc which is value-added stuff above public record information.

MLS also keeps data like “waterfront”, “park-like view”, “3-car parking”, etc which is value-added stuff above public record information.

Yes, misinformation can be truly value-adding for the seller.

Yuan

Yeah, it would be difficult to get hard #'s on flippers, but I think your gut feel is probably accurate enough. I've noticed that the markets that have been pegged by the media as weakening out here have seen a huge surge of properties both for sale and rent. Speculation in the Sacto region (especially in the area of Natomas which is by Arco Arena) has been rampant enough for the broadcast news to do a number of stories on it. The Bee also recently printed an article that stated speculators are getting nervous, specifically around the Natomas area, and that a lot of 'for sale' signs are popping up. I think it will have a cascade effect; once on area starts selling off, investors in neighboring areas will get nervous and do the same thing. I think what we're seeing out here now is the tip of the iceberg.

The family who sold the house are in Venture Capital, and they actually bought a larger house just down the street. I don’t really think anybody should blame them for being ‘investors.’ I mean, they invested in the house to live a nice life. They invested so their kids could have a nice safe environment to play in. And, they invested their proceeds to an even larger house. Is that so bad?

Don't blame at all for being investors, or for buying (not *investing*) in a nice house to live a nice life. But how much damn house does one need to raise kids? $2.5 million worth of house? I guess so. If I had the money, I'd look at the very nice houses, too. But I'm frugal and definitely a bit practical in my spending or investing.

Personally, I think the house and location is fantastic, despite it being in the middle of landfill.

HUH!!?? Did you say in the middle of a landfill??? 8-O Oh, I'm finished now. LOL! I have no more to say about this house.

BayQT~

I have had difficulty getting accurate information about foreclosures too. My Mom and Dad bought a house years ago, and were halfway through the process before they found out the 'seller' was actually the already foreclosed on previous owner. They had scammed some other people on other properties as well by 'selling' properties that had already been repo'd by the bank. Fortunately my Mom thought something was up and investigated the property before they put any money down. They ended up buying it from the bank and turned in the former owners for fraud.

My point in posting this is that I've noticed a lot of sites that advertise foreclosures for sale but list the owners as the sellers. If the property is already foreclosed on, obviously it is now owned by the bank. Now, I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to some owners who are trying to sell before the property is foreclosed on. But I think a lot of people are just trying to get interest in a property by claiming they are selling it before it's foreclosed on, because a lot of the asking prices on the so called foreclosures I saw were astronomical.

Needless to say, I don't trust a lot of sources I've seen on the net about foreclosures.

MP,

Yep...you are right. I completely forgot about what happened in the Marina District after the Loma Prieta Quake in '89. Lots of liquifaction.

tinyurl.com/84l45

BayQT~

I remember when I was in school in Japan, and my homestay father was telling me about the Kansai airport, which was built on landfill. It was the newest most high-tech, ultra modern airport. I saw it, and I must admit it was really nice. Now in Japan, landfill is very common due to the lack of land. I don't remember the price tag on building the airport, but it could have been in the billion dollar range.

Anyway, it was sinking.

I did see a story on the history channel about how they were going about fixing the problem. This involved lots more landfill and mega$$$. As far as I know the airport is still open, so maybe the problem is solved-- at least temporarily.

Once again, it always pays to buy in the best location possible, despite the high price.

I agree... locations beyond school districts though.

As far as I know the airport is still open, so maybe the problem is solved– at least temporarily.

I don't think the problem is solved. It is just sinking so slowly that it does not matter... yet.

Speaking of liqufaction. Not long after I left Japan the Kobe quake hit. I know that despite supposedly earthquake- safe building that had been done, there was massive damage, and that many railroads that had been built on landfill totally collapsed.

I don’t think the problem is solved. It is just sinking so slowly that it does not matter… yet.

Since they've already spent lots of $$ shoring it up, it might be sinking faster than we know.

I know that despite supposedly earthquake- safe building that had been done, there was massive damage, and that many railroads that had been built on landfill totally collapsed.

It is just difficult to build structure for earthquakes because there are some many different forms and types. I really think we should have hydralic dampening devices. An active dampening foundation should stand a better chance.

I don’t think the problem is solved. It is just sinking so slowly that it does not matter… yet.

Sort of like the Tower of Pisa, huh. They just continue to shore it up the best way that they can.

BayQT~

It is just difficult to build structure for earthquakes because there are some many different forms and types. I really think we should have hydralic dampening devices. An active dampening foundation should stand a better chance.

How likely is this to happen? I mean, is it cost effective enough or do you think builders will just figure it's cheaper to build another traditional style house when the old one falls down?

How likely is this to happen? I mean, is it cost effective enough or do you think builders will just figure it’s cheaper to build another traditional style house when the old one falls down?

Of course they rather have buildings that fall down every few years... :(

Sort of like the Tower of Pisa, huh. They just continue to shore it up the best way that they can.

But they will not fix the problem even if they can... otherwise, there will be no Tower of Pisa.

What was I thinking? Builders wanting to build something that lasts????
Silly me. :?

otherwise, there will be no Tower of Pisa.

There will still be a tower, but it won't be the leaning tourist attraction anymore. (that's what you meant isn't it Peter?)

There will still be a tower, but it won’t be the leaning tourist attraction anymore. (that’s what you meant isn’t it Peter?)

Yes, there will be "some tower around the town of Pisa" but no "Tower of Pisa".

Thanks for the lovely picture of the collapsed building BayAreaQT. Very nice of you.

Hmmm...I guess he didn't like the photo. :evil: I'm so bad.

BayQT~

It is just difficult to build structure for earthquakes because there are some many different forms and types. I really think we should have hydralic dampening devices. An active dampening foundation should stand a better chance.

If I remember right, some skyscrapers actually do have hydraulic dampening.
In terms of landfill areas, it's pretty hard to prevent liquefaction, because the actual soil gives way, possibly negating foundational and structural retrofits. Whole office buildings in Japan have sunk down a few stories (under ground level) from liquefaction. I think the best defense is to sink pillings deep through the landfill to bedrock--perhaps someone here knows for sure. This is what I see done along water, and I'm glad to be on bedrock! :)

Now, regarding MP’s Marina’s whoop-de-doo dream house….there are just folks who have money to throw at anything and will find words to justify it. Granted, it is probably “prime” property (what IS a good, working definition of “prime”?) but…wow…that’s a lot of money. $400K over asking? How many offers could there have been? Just wondering….

Now lets think about this.

If there was only one buyer, then the buyer blew 400K.

If there were more buyers then the buyer blew 400k, why?
The sellers were supposedly venture capitalists or the like. I would probably guess they would know the current market price, right?

They might have listed low to start a bidding war, or to unload. BUT, if they asked market price (current market) then the buyers blew 400K.

I guess money must not really matter to some people.
Maybe there are lots of wealthy people? Good luck to them.
Imagine selling 400K over asking. Well done sellers.

Hope they bought well or did they blow 600K.

."..see how many of them have changed hands in the past year or so…anyone wanna help? We could each pick a town… "

Jamie, I checked a few properties in my "neck of the woods" (Marin); here's a few random ones. I'm sorta surprised at the numbers bought/sold within a couple of years.

Kentfield 4/4: last sold 7/00 for $700K, now asking $1.3M
San Rafael: 4/2: last sold 5/02 for $600K, now $950K (optimistic!)
San Anselmo: 2/1 cottage, last sold 11/02 for $525K, now $750K (ditto)
San Anselmo: 2/2 cottage, last sold 7/04 for $625K, now $700K (loss)
Greenbrae: 3/2, last sold 2/05 for $1.33M, now $1.35M (uh-oh)
San Rafael: 3/3, last sold 1/05 for $715K, now $750K (oops)

@AntiTroll: Maybe there are lots of wealthy people?

There are tons and tons of wealthy people! And foreigners too! And the Marina is the only place they want to live in the entire world!

Also: front cover of AZ republic: WATER SHORTAGE. stop all construction now.

I asked my "investor" friend who have bought properties in AZ about water rights... he said "What water rights?"

There are tons and tons of wealthy people! And foreigners too! And the Marina is the only place they want to live in the entire world!

It's going to get very crowded.

There are tons and tons of wealthy people! And foreigners too! And the Marina is the only place they want to live in the entire world!

It’s going to get very crowded.

The place will sink under its own weight.
But wait, they could use a new sales angle:
Marina: Venice of the Future!â„¢

No offense, but Venice is not exactly a nice place to live. Water quality is often less than ideal...

More from Ben's blog:

"The FHLB of Pittsburgh said on Thursday it will restate over four years of financial results, mainly due to derivatives accounting errors."

"Half of the 12 FHLB regional member banks are now restating earnings for similar reasons." There was a time when talk of derivatives problems was taken more seriously. Any one of these banks could be a bigger mess than Enron.

Will there be OTC derivatives meltdown in October?

I think the potential for liquefaction in the Marina has been greatly overstated here. New Marina homedebtors can simply reinforce thier foundations using the tons of cash they've all made from the perpetually rising equity of their homes. It's a well known fact that fresh crisp new $100 bills can stop liquefaction dead in its tracks. Nuff said... :-P