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When will you buy? What will you buy?


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2005 Aug 30, 12:53pm   22,536 views  174 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

The housing bubble will end but prices will not go down forever. At some point, it will be a good time to buy again. When will that be? How do we determine that point in time? What will you buy? How will you finance it?

(Note: this is not the same as the "Dream Homes" thread because the next house you buy may or may not be your dream home.)

#housing

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136   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 4:17am  

SactoQt, your father-in-laws credentials are impressive, and I would feel pride as well. I believe that pretty much everyone, whether they’re pro-Bush or not support the troops wholeheartedly. Please do not fall into the trap of equating criticism of one particular administration and its policies with criticising the troops.

Don't worry, I know the difference. I just have a view that's different because I have access to info that is not widely disseminated. It's hard not to feel that a lot of opinions are formed on only half the info availiable.

137   HARM   2005 Sep 2, 4:18am  

It’s so easy to Monday morning quaterback this thing, but I didn’t hear any major outcry before the disaster that the administration wasn’t doing enough to prepare. This works both ways, congress didn’t meet before hand when there was warning enough. No prominent Dems came out to say “we better get out there."

Well actully the NO Times-Picayune published a number of articles about just that in the months leading up to the flood, but as you say, where was Congress & the Dems on this? Occupied with other things I suppose --like brain dead people on feeding tubes, Janet Jackson't exposed tit, missing white women and gay people getting married.

138   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 4:25am  

I admit it, I don't get the NO times-Picayune. I saw an army engineer try to defend the lack of prep and it was a completely lame argument. They could and should have done better. I'm not a military advocate across the board, I just don't like to take extreme positions that refuse to listen to the other side, after all the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle.

139   HARM   2005 Sep 2, 4:31am  

SactoQt, I don't blame the military one bit for this disaster. If I had to assign blame at this point (and as you say, it's still too soon), I'd guess it was a combination of bad luck, bad policy decisions by civilian leadership and inadequate planning by FEMA and related agencies. Time will tell, I'm sure.

140   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 6:00am  

Astrid

I was once as passionate as you about the Dems but as time goes on you learn that your hero's are not as honest and forthright as you think and that the opponents are not as evil and incompetent as they seem. Time tempers all opinions through experience. I don't want to patronize so I'll leave it at that.

141   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 6:05am  

Harm

I don't blame the military either, it's just that the spokesperson for the army engineers was trying to argue after the fact that the preparations were adequate when they clearly weren't. It sounded as if he was more concerned with being right than addressing the real issue. I know firsthand that the military is a bureaucracy too and that politics can take the place of practicality at times. My father-in-law has lamented that fact from time to time.

142   sfbayqt   2005 Sep 2, 6:41am  

Friends,

I haven’t been participating that much lately because I am concerned for a friend and his family in New Orleans. If any of you (or the lurkers) know Robert L. Warner Jr, sisters Helen and Sabrina or other members of their family, please post here for me or on any new topic. I check here regularly, and am checking all the lists that have been posted over the internet. If you’d rather not give me the information here, just let me know and we can communicate off this site.

Thanks all,

BayQT~

143   KurtS   2005 Sep 2, 6:42am  

It looks like Rivermark is going through a phase of crazy sale - there are tons of brand new townhomes on sale, and some had price reduction for “quick sale”!

I'm not familiar with that dev., but I've heard of a dev in Sunnyvale on the site of an old nursery, something like 12/acre density--and still under construction. My guess: they missed their window of opportunity, and who would buy a hastily-built home?

144   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 8:31am  

I overheard a conversation yesterday that I haven't heard in a long time. The people were discussing all the homes for sale in our area and how the prices are being lowered on everything. And then they even said that they thought the prices weren't being reduced enough as the homes were still not selling. Halleluiah.

145   loveuser   2005 Sep 2, 9:09am  

Rivermark was in low 400's for a town home (looks like 3 boxes piled up) 2000 but when checked in 2004 the same about mid 700. I thought 400 itself was high at that time.

146   loveuser   2005 Sep 2, 11:23am  

Saw lot of development on San Thomas near the rivermark area, I don't remember anything built there in 1996 but suddenly it started to look like small city in that area now. Recently stopped checking any houses as almost none are reasonably priced. In fremont warmsprings district a 50year old house with 1500sqft on 6000sqft lot was 500k in early 2003 now it is almost about 950k+. Hope the bidding will stop and the prices will come to normal soon (I believe that 500k for such a old house with not much upgrades should be max low 400k at the most).

147   quesera   2005 Sep 2, 11:42am  

Looks like all the bears are wrong. Donald Trump says so:

http://donaldtrump.trumpuniversity.com/default.asp?item=98726

Or maybe he doesn't. By the end, I can't tell any more.

I guess I'm fired, then. Crap.

148   loveuser   2005 Sep 2, 2:23pm  

Let me pray god for the Katrina victims to recover fast and get well soon.

What is the impact of Katrina on US economy and the effect on house pricing (could be an indirect impact like a little up in gas price because of the refiniries shutdown and/or producing crude oil).

Since almost the complete city has to be rebuild will the home builders be doing good.

149   Jimbo   2005 Sep 2, 2:27pm  

SactoQt where are you going to move to?

Sorry astrid, you are right, I was talking to you. I think your plan makes sense, especially if you think you can get 8-10% after taxes from your investments. In the long run, real estate makes a pretty good investment still, but there are better ones. Isn't this the same thing as the David Lereah argument :-D

150   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 2, 2:48pm  

Speaking of Rivermark condos, there sure are a lot on CL. I love the one that says "Win a trip to BALI".
http://www.craigslist.org/cgi-bin/search?areaID=1&subAreaID=2&query=rivermark&cat=rfs&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max&neighborhood=

151   Zephyr   2005 Sep 2, 3:06pm  

I just looked at the driftglass link… Isn’t it terrible how those Republicans have sent this hurricane into New Orleans to drown the black people!

152   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 3:09pm  

Astrid

No disrepect intended, but I don't have the energy or interest in continuing a dialogue about the politics of a national disaster. There's blame enough to go around and one parties policies have little relevance at this point. I think there are plenty of Republicans who feel most of the Dems are firmly entrenched in an ideology that has little common sense behind it. Are they right? No. But flat out dismissing either side is wrong. I feel it is a great thing that this country has a multi-party system as it keeps both sides in check. OK, enough already with the politics.

SactoQt where are you going to move to?

I'll end up staying in Ca for the foreseeable future because of jobs/family. With any luck the market will come down enough to make me be able to see the charm of my home state again.

153   Zephyr   2005 Sep 2, 3:09pm  

I am curious about one thing though. There was plenty of warning of this storm. The people were told to evacuate. The superdome was offered as a shelter. Why would any healthy person of better than moronic IQ not walk the one or two miles to the superdome to be sheltered from the storm?

154   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 2, 3:13pm  

Yeah, problem is the democratic leadership is simply too extreme...not very grounded. Both sides have extremists, but dems are being steered by extremists...irrationalists who wouldn't understand the concept of Atlas Shrugging if they read it a thousand times... IO-, ARM-, neg am-type folks.

155   Zephyr   2005 Sep 2, 3:17pm  

If I am ever in such a situation it will not be because I was too lazy to walk two miles to safety.

156   praetorian   2005 Sep 2, 3:18pm  

@astrid: My boy chesterton: http://www.chesterton.org

Basically, I'm unwilling to forgive the left for its lack of a sense of humor. You'd have to have a heart of stone to still be liberal after 5 years of berkeley and 4 years of San Francisco.

I'm thinking of getting a bumper sticker made:

"Bush. Just to piss you off."

to rock on my car. Just to see the apoplectic coffee explosions on 280 on my way to work. Regardless of your political persuasion, *tell me* that wouldn't be funny...

Cheers,
prat

157   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 3:22pm  

I just looked at the driftglass link… Isn’t it terrible how those Republicans have sent this hurricane into New Orleans to drown the black people!

I looked too, and I'm still trying to find the eloquence or the facts to back up the rhetoric. Sorry Astrid. Btw, you started paying attention to politics at 15? Were you reading anything other than the progressive lefts pov since then? Again, no disrespect intended, but it's all too slanted to take seriously.

158   praetorian   2005 Sep 2, 3:24pm  

@astrid: don't take my comment as a jibe. I'm just playing.

More smart, successful, and better looking kids agree with you than with me. Therefore, I'm reduced to...

Consider, chewbacca...

_smile_

Cheers,
prat

159   praetorian   2005 Sep 2, 3:30pm  

While I'm on the topic, and since this thread has devolved (and we are at 200+ posts anyway, so we have crossed the coherent thread horizon), may I share one of my favorite chesterton quotes?

Lovely.

"What embitters the world is not excess of criticism, but an absence of self-criticism."

Cheers,
prat

160   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 3:34pm  

Bad Shift

Too true. The tragedy has raised some tempers in the face of some unfortunate events and dragging politics into it is pointless. I think some levity is in order, so I too thank you Prat.

Chewbacca

161   praetorian   2005 Sep 2, 3:35pm  

"There’s no shortage of blogs with exactly the kind of discussion above"

Really? Where?

I've grown so weary of all the level-headed political discussions I read online. Something with a bit more oooomph would be nice. I mean, how many times can you read another middle-of-the-road "Bush/Hitler eats babies cooked in poor people stew by the jews" essay or a yawn-inducing "Democrats want to sell aborted fetuses to the UN to create a clone army of communists created by the jews" post?

I mean, really.

Cheers,
prat

162   Zephyr   2005 Sep 2, 3:38pm  

Prat, These stories are silly, but some peopel seem to believe them.

163   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 3:38pm  

“What embitters the world is not excess of criticism, but an absence of self-criticism.”

That'll be my deep thought for the day. ;)

164   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 2, 3:42pm  

But re: RE, what about all those Rivermark condos on Craigslist???
Anyone from So.Bay comment?

165   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 3:43pm  

I’ve grown so weary of all the level-headed political discussions I read online. Something with a bit more oooomph would be nice. I mean, how many times can you read another middle-of-the-road “Bush/Hitler eats babies cooked in poor people stew by the jews” essay or a yawn-inducing “Democrats want to sell aborted fetuses to the UN to create a clone army of communists created by the jews” post?

You know, if had your gift for writing, I would have stayed in journalism much longer. Priceless.

166   praetorian   2005 Sep 2, 3:43pm  

Did I mention the jews?

Because, like, *totally*, the jews.

Wow.

Cheers,
prat

167   praetorian   2005 Sep 2, 3:50pm  

@astrid

Smugness and self-satisfaction are the enemies of all men of goodwill. I join you, arm in arm, in your fight against them, comrade.

_queue the international_

Cheers, and don't leave, what fun would that be?
prat

168   praetorian   2005 Sep 2, 3:53pm  

Warming to the theme, I offer another chesterton quote:

"Among the rich you will never find a really generous man even by accident. They may give their money away, but they will never give themselves away; they are egotistic, secretive, dry as old bones. To be smart enough to get all that money you must be dull enough to want it."

Hmmmm.

_strokes chin and considers life ambitions_

Well, on that note, goodnight.

Cheers,
prat

169   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 4:08pm  

Well, despite Prat's heroic efforts to save this thread, I think it's been run into the ground. New thread ideas? Anyone...anyone?

170   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 2, 4:44pm  

Well earlier today there was talk of a "rate hike or no" thread. I suppose to discuss whether there should, and whether there would, be one, and what the ramifications would be. I was looking forward to that because it sounds like it would be a good source thread (i.e edumacational). Don't know why no thread yet, though....

171   Zephyr   2005 Sep 2, 4:48pm  

The suffering in New Orleans is truely a shame...

From another website:

“Much of the suffering in New Orleans was avoidable. LOCAL authorities were slow with the evacuation order, and did not utilize resources at hand to evacuate those who lacked transportation.

Perhaps they were concerned that once they had evacuees on busses they had no plan for where to take them.”

http://www.city-journal.org/html/eon_09_01_05ng.html

http://instapundit.com/archives/025310.php

The city had countless buses in the city that they just parked and left to be flooded.

172   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 4:51pm  

Well earlier today there was talk of a “rate hike or no” thread. I suppose to discuss whether there should, and whether there would, be one, and what the ramifications would be. I was looking forward to that because it sounds like it would be a good source thread (i.e edumacational). Don’t know why no thread yet, though….

The main thread masters have been away today, but I can put one up. In terms of rate hikes, are we speaking in response to Katrina, or do you want to address other factors?

173   SQT15   2005 Sep 2, 5:06pm  

Actually never mind. I went ahead and created a new thread. It's basic but we need to move on.

174   Jimbo   2005 Sep 3, 2:19am  

astrid, I will miss your presence, but agree that it is probably a good idea to cool off for a bit. Maybe not weeks, but however long you feel like you need.

This is not a political blog, per se, and I would hate to see it turn into one. There is plenty of that out there.

My politics are pretty close to yours, but I came from the other end. I grew up poor and was practically an anarchist in college. Now I consider myself progressive socially and pragmatic fiscally.

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