patrick.net

Call it Crazy says

Moderate Infidel says

Analyzer says

Also, how is pent up demand measured?

By magical thinking.

Do you believe in unicorns???

I used to until a Leprechaun told me they weren't real.

veruca says

Leaving the playground now. Thanks for the fascinating commentary I enjoy as
I lurk on the outskirts. :)

Welcome Veruca! No, not one of the hip kids on the playground, but I also enjoy the commentary and if one evokes a thought I enjoy writing it, as I believe you did.

OurBroker says

nstance, the FHA is now allowing people who lost their homes to foreclosures and short sales to refinance in as little as 12 months. There is pent-up demand from the past five or six years. If we advance legalized immigration we can add another 3 million buyers over the next few years. Etc.

I wouldnt expect the bulk of illegal aliens, many of whom work at menial jobs to be able to afford homes- especially with the higher prices and interest rates.

Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea.Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market

David Losh says

a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a home

Hold on hold on hold on. I sympathize with this idea in cities like SF/NYC/LA, but we have now bundled so much of our California salaries into a fat savings account that we are now looking to just move back to the southeast where we can buy any house cash with our current DP and get out of the rat race.

Wealthy Chinese:SanFran::middle income Californians:non-coastal US

David Losh says

It may be that we are at a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a
home.

Is that really that bad? Consider that for most people that DO own a home, that's where a lot of their savings went to, and a good portion of their future income. Could that be why most boomers have little to no retirement money set aside, and all the liquid and financial assets ownership are concentrated in a very small group that owns 80-90% of them?

>>>Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea. Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market.

I'm not saying your wrong, just that this is happening.

Interestingly I was just sent a Zillow report for a group of houses for sale in Orange County, and the majority of them had price reductions. What gives?

OurBroker says

>>>Trying to get former foreclosed buyers in 12 months to qualify again is a dumb idea. Its desperate tricks like that to keep the mortgages flowing and the prices rising that destroy a legitimate housing market.

I'm not saying your wrong, just that this is happening.

Correct-it is a plan that they are pushing. Are there any preliminary #'s that show how many are/can take advantage

I wouldn't pin a housing recovery on the worst credit risks in the country or on illegal aliens

upisdown says

David Losh says

It may be that we are at a point where only the wealthy can afford to own a

home.

Is that really that bad? Consider that for most people that DO own a home, that's where a lot of their savings went to, and a good portion of their future income. Could that be why most boomers have little to no retirement money set aside, and all the liquid and financial assets ownership are concentrated in a very small group that owns 80-90% of them?

You make a good point-plenty of people own homes- but the pipe line of new homeowners is almost non existent -the age group 18-28 is in bad shape to buy-they are underemployed as a group and have lots of debt already from college
http://smaulgld.com/student-loans-and-unemployment-are-holding-back-the-economy-and-real-estate-market/

This housing market may be running out of steam..................

Thanks to all that subscribed to smaulgld.com today

I am still waiting to hear what will be the main drivers to support a continued rise in home prices? Investors? Job creation? Interest rates? or the hope of pent up demand?

Anecdotal evidence but I am looking in counties surrounding NYC and am seeing tons of price drops. Nearly every house I look at has been reduced at least two times in the last 6 months.

The price drops go back to spring...

egads101 says

You do realize you could have asked the same smug question 2 years ago, and mocked all replies, only to be as wrong as humanly possible?

Back then I had the answer investors and low rates.

I always get a kick out of the term 'shadow inventory'. Who really knows where the so called shadow inventory stands at this point, should we ask the shadow banks or the shadow Fed? It's a shadow alright!

According toZero hedge-building materials and garden supply dealers saw sales down 0.9%

LAST HOPE- Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

Maybe it will show some wishful thinking is left in the minds of potential homebuyers

smaulgld says

LAST HOPE- Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

Maybe it will show some wishful thinking is left in the minds of potential homebuyers

Don't count on that either- big miss on the index.
Recovery?

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

LAST HOPE- Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.

Maybe it will show some wishful thinking is left in the minds of potential homebuyers

What, like potential home buyers in Detroit???

Or all those immigrants becoming legal and buying homes!

Smaulgld in the Boston Globe! http://patrick.net/?p=1229346

>>>What, like potential home buyers in Detroit???

Times change. Pittsburgh has come back and it wasn't too long ago that New York City was bankrupt.

I was in Flint about two months ago and was greatly surprised by the rebuilding. It's not ever going to be the manufacturing hub that it once was, but new businesses are opening. Unemployment remains high, but not as high as 2009.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT26224203?data_tool=XGtable

OurBroker says

>>>What, like potential home buyers in Detroit???

Times change. Pittsburgh has come back and it wasn't too long ago that New York City was bankrupt.

I was in Flint about two months ago and was greatly surprised by the rebuilding. It's not ever going to be the manufacturing hub that it once was, but new businesses are opening. Unemployment remains high, but not as high as 2009.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT26224203?data_tool=XGtable

Sure, one day Detroit will return- but not in time to save this housing "recovery"

Tim Aurora says

Sorry to disappoint Smaulglg but the recocvery is well on its way

fewer Foreclosures don't mean more people will buy homes just like fewer initial jobless claims doesn't mean anyone got a job
At some point the bleeding stops, but recovery doesn't necessarily follow
http://smaulgld.com/initial-jobless-claims/

Do you think Bank of America understands what is happening?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-american-economy-doesnt-accelerate-132041458.html

smaulgld says

Do you think Bank of America understands what is happening?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-american-economy-doesnt-accelerate-132041458.html

Can we call it a shadow recovery? Shadows are only illusions anyway right.

Analyzer says

Can we call it a shadow recovery? Shadows are only illusions anyway right.

Bernanke's housing recovery is a shadow of Greenspan's housing boom- that is for sure and a lot more expensive

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

....or was 58 states, as Obama claimed????

UM that would be 57 states

Missed it by one....

Don't worry - Obama Nailed it-that is why he is President

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

Call it Crazy says

smaulgld says

....or was 58 states, as Obama claimed????

UM that would be 57 states

Missed it by one....

Don't worry - Obama Nailed it-that is why he is President

Crap, you mean if I guess 57, I could have been president too??

Yeah that and a subscription to smaulgld.com will make you the leader of the free world!