patrick.net

BayBear,

In SF, Marin and perhaps some areas of the Peninsula upper-end rentals have become multiple-bid situations. Even single family detached home rentals are moving in under a week, often for prices I wouldn't have bothered to laugh at a year ago.

I am surprised how quickly this segment of rentals has appreciated. 6 months ago I was trying to leverage my LL to drop our price by 20%. Now he's complaining about the extension option lease he signed with me, which allows me to stay here until Spring '08 at a fixed option price, but for the same rent. When we signed, it was a good deal for him (assuming mild appreciating rents at CPI). Now it's a great deal for me.

I love call options.

George,

what pray tell is the magic number? 4%? 3%? 2%?

I'll do it for -2.5% (note the little '-'). I'll even move to FL for that deal. :)

Peter P,

Condos have more cachet in NYC than in SF. Manhattan's market is dominated by co-ops (with strict and intrusive review processes) that render condos more desireable. The pricest condos are also prestige new construction with big name backers and architects and on offer to the richest people in the world.

In contrast, SF really doesn't attract as many billionaires checking out the very top of the food chain, have less attractive top end condo offerings, and condos are considered less desireable than SFH. Buying SFH in NYC (as opposed to townhouses, which seems to be going for at least 4 to 5 million) will run north of 20 million dollars and rarely ever even come on the market.

Comparing top price in the two cities doesn't do much unless you're already a billionaire or near billionaire. I'll check out a market based on what I can afford, not what I could afford if I was Mike Bloomberg.

FL is probably fine, but it's got heat and humidity all summer and mosquitoes and alligators and hurricanes and no mountains or skiing within driving distance. Which is all fine, if only the prices went back to 1994 levels.

George,

No need for a magical mortgage interest rate number. I'd move to FL if there were paying jobs there and houses cost $25K each. For that price, I'd move there even if the 30 year fixed rate was 100%.

George,

Nice house, now if only the company my husband works for would relocate........

Oh, well, never mind.

George,

"- hurricanes: Its like a roller-coaster ride that lasts for six hours. Oh, and it probably knocks out the power too. Afterwards, however, its like camping in your dark living room with MREs and canned food. Bonding time, I tell you, Bonding time!"

LOL! Show me some mosquito infested swamp land already, I'm sold!

I got one for the 1994 price levels. -- "You have to look at RE prices in petro-dollars and gold-dollars. Look at how much gas went up since! Florida's real estate is barely keeping up. And look at how much further "econometricians" are predicting oil could go up to, there's upside, I tell yah!

George,

O.K so it's been a few days since you've talked to a bona fide buyer, but you do have ONE good point! The Bonding!

When I was stationed in the P.I we would get 24 hour notifications from the weather guessers. Often they would shut the power down as much as 12 hours early! Our solution?

Typhoon Party! We would literally run local stores out of ice, beer, rum and coke! Then we'd have to hook up somebody's car stereo and run the wires into the patio and charcoal grill until the power came back on! I got to tell you man, they were fun! Some lasted as long as 48 hours!

So, in 25 years when miami and tampa (which have downtowns located below sea level) turn into Venices, we should be sitting pretty.

Anybody see the Al Gore movie? They showed a computer illustration of what Florida would look like if the Greenland ice glacier melts and sea levels rise 20 feet. The state was about 3/4 underwater. The caption on that picture should have read "Al Gore gets his revenge on Florida, circa 2025."

The caption on that picture should have read “Al Gore gets his revenge on Florida, circa 2025.

Funny you mentioned that. Pluto will enter Aquarius around 2023. Perhaps astrology can be quite literal? :)

Glen,

Well, it wasn't really Floridians who went against Al Gore, it was that stupid butterfly ballot that caused Palm Beach Jewish retirees to accidentally vote for Pat Buchanan.

If all the Greenland ice melted, I think we have a much bigger mess on our hands than a couple underwater Florida condos.

Sorry for the hyperbole...I need to check facts before posting...I think it was actually 100 years as the timetable and maybe 1/2 of Florida was underwater. Here's an article with a similar picture:

http://www.underwatertimes.com/news.php?article_id=74261835910

If all the Greenland ice melted, I think we have a much bigger mess on our hands than a couple underwater Florida condos.

True. But I pity the saps taking out those new 50 year mortgages... By the time they pay off their mortgage (if any of them ever do pay off their mortgage) their underwater mortgage will be replaced with an underwater property. (Sorry, that was bad.)

I don't know if global warming is really a problem. Maybe it wouldn't be so bad. We could open a glacier pipeline to get fresh, cold glacier water to all the refugees. The Canadian and Siberian agriculture industries would boom to produce plentiful food for everyone. I just wouldn't want to own any low-lying properties. (I'm talking to you, San Franciscans and New Yorkers.)

The problem with Doomsday Pools is you can never collect. Nevertheless, I'm in for a solar powered radio, 2 boxes of ammo and a crate of canned peaches. I'll take November 13, 2017.

That solar radio comment was dumb.

George,

Would that be in USD, Euros, or petrodollars?

On second thought, I'd be up a bottle of penicillin capsules, two large bags of tortilla chips, and some water purifying tablets. July 16, 2015.

Glen,

Yeah, except most of Europe would be 2 or more climate zones colder and drier, and most of the Netherlands would be underwater. Many of the glacier/ice melt rivers would become much less predictable and have longer dry periods (including the Ganges, the Mekong, the Yangtze, and the Colorado river systems) Africa will probably suffer worse even worse droughts. Major die offs in the world's fisheries.

It'll be quite an adjustment.

According to the Mayans, the 4th world (this one) finishes on 21st December 2012 - to make way for the final, 5th world.

So - my date 12/21/2012.

25 litres of distilled water, 10 packs of vegetable seeds and a machete.

Oh, and let me throw in a pair of Nubian pygmy goats, just to sweeten the deal ;-)

Yeah, except most of Europe would be 2 or more climate zones colder and drier, and most of the Netherlands would be underwater. Many of the glacier/ice melt rivers would become much less predictable and have longer dry periods (including the Ganges, the Mekong, the Yangtze, and the Colorado river systems) Africa will probably suffer worse even worse droughts. Major die offs in the world’s fisheries.

Well, it is hard to predict dynamic systems. We may find that new rivers replace the old ones, new sources of food become plentiful, etc... I agree that the first 100 years or so would be pretty tough and major dislocations would arise. But I think people would eventually redistribute themselves geographically and make the necessary adjustments. This is one more reason why I think people should be relatively free, without interference from governments, to choose where on the planet they would like to live. People will naturally gravitate to areas that have the resources to absorb them. We will all need to learn to get along a lot better with our neighbors.

According to the Mayans, the 4th world (this one) finishes on 21st December 2012 - to make way for the final, 5th world.

So it is fine to get a 5 year "fixed" NAAVLP loan starting next December? :)

Major die offs in the world’s fisheries.

Huh? 8-O

In contrast, SF really doesn’t attract as many billionaires checking out the very top of the food chain, have less attractive top end condo offerings, and condos are considered less desireable than SFH. Buying SFH in NYC (as opposed to townhouses, which seems to be going for at least 4 to 5 million) will run north of 20 million dollars and rarely ever even come on the market.

That should probably have read Buying SFH in Manhattan (as opposed to townhouses, which seems to be going for at least 4 to 5 million) will run north of 20 million dollars and rarely ever even come on the market.

There are plenty of SFHs in Queens that are affordable.

What sad is that the most dangerous parts of the Bay Area cost dramatically more than the most dangerous parts of NYC.

See the comments on this post: http://www.burbed.com/2006/08/08/burning-hot-city-heat-maps-silicon-valley/

Glen,

It seems to me that genocidal wars are more common than peaceful migration and population redistribution. Europeans obviously have more resources and they're not as heavily dependent on agriculture, but it will mean a dramatic drop in living standards due to increased energy consumption (colder winters, hotter summers) and higher food costs.

As for the glacier/snowfield fed rivers, the problem is that the glaciers would retreat to nothing. Those sources are not replaceable. The water that used to run until the next monsoon season would simply not be there.

Higher temperatures will also lead to bigger storm systems and higher evaporation rates, so the world would end up more like the desert southwest - more flashfloods and more drought periods.

Peter P,

Major changes in ocean salinity or temperature will cause some fishery die offs. Others may replace them in time, but the transition could mean higher fish prices for certain fishes. This does seem like more of a problem in the Atlantic than the Pacific, for the time being, if that's any comfort.

eburb,

Yes, thanks for the correction. I had gone back to the Manhattan = NYC mindset. I assume most multimillionaire buyers at the $2000+/sq ft level do not bother looking at the other 4 boroughs.

Kevin,

I like your version of "unity". Quite excellent. Friends don't let friends buy at the top of the market!

I liken the #2's (as you put it) to the "24 Second Shot Clock" in NBA Basketball. Only in RE it's the "24 Month Clock". When you're bringing the ball up court with a "fresh shot clock" you see a lot of passing, head faking and positioning for a sure bucket. As the clock winds down you see frantic "Hail Mary" shots from a recovered loose ball at HALF COURT! (At this point your only hope is to try and get fouled) or in our case, get the FED to stop raising rates.

Right now the "Shot Clock" has 7 seconds remaining.

We will all need to learn to get along a lot better with our neighbors.

Maybe I'm just getting too cynical, but I doubt it goes down that way. Rather I think those with power will simply take whatever resources and land become valuable away from those without power.

That has been the way of things for many millions of years. We just have bigger clubs now.

Maybe I’m just getting too cynical, but I doubt it goes down that way. Rather I think those with power will simply take whatever resources and land become valuable away from those without power.

I agree, just a little wishful thinking on my part.

Rather I think those with power will simply take whatever resources and land become valuable away from those without power.

I afraid that will be the cause until at least 2023.

Re founding/framing Ideals - they are not liberal or conservative. Most liberals want to take my guns away. The founding framers would be shocked and aghast at the firearms laws that do nothing to crime but make subjects out of citizens.

Personally I'd like to own a RPG. Just think of the great hunting and personal protection capabilities! It'd totally make EPA a safer place to be.

Frankly, not that Shrub or the GOP is any better, but to insinuate that Kennedy, Schumer, Swinestein, Boxer, Pelosi, Kerry, and folks of that ilk respect my bank account, my money, the taxes I pay, my rights - forget it. Those people want to use populist wealth redistribution tactics like taxing the crap out of me

Instead, we just borrow to redistribute our future wealth to corporations. :(

surferxman.googlepages.com/IMG_0641copy.jpg

Interesting way to track the median price.

http://housing-watch.com/regionview.aspx?city=San-Jose

Not much good at close quarters, so I don’t see how it would help in EPA. You would be better served with an automatic 7.62 mm carbine in that sort of situation.

Good point! Though maybe you could use the RPGs as covering fire. After all, the best defense is a good offense. Fight them over there so we won't have to fight them overe here... etc.

In any case, if everyone is armed, then there wouldn't be crime (we'll ignore Texas.)

Well, at least that's what the argument was after the Colin Ferguson incident:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Ferguson

Gun rights advocates frequently cite the Ferguson attack on the commuter train as an example of the danger of disarming the population, arguing that Ferguson was able to shoot as many victims as he did because no other person on the train was able to return fire.

Ah, a shoot out in a metal tube - what could possibly go wrong.

I did see a H2 with a (fake) M240 mounted on the hood, in the parking lot across from the Cheesecake Factory at Valley Fair, of all places.

Well, the other side of 880 isn't all that great... especially by Race Street.

To those saying/asking about early recovery.

The dot-com crash seems to have happened in a very short span of time. It did not happen that way. During the way down, everyone was calling for bottom at every stage.

I remember Jim Jubak on MSN Investor. Fed had cut interest rates. Within a year, they were supposed to "work their way" into economy and we were supposed to start flying again.

The rates did not matter. The ratios did not adjust by earnings catching up with valuation. Red Hat did not earn enough to be the next Microsoft. Ratios adjusted with price catching "down" with earnings.

That adjustment, even for an emotionless asset like stock, took a long time So recovery happening soon ? Forget about it. The bottom is not going to happen soon. We will talk about recovery when we reach the bottom.

Does anybody know if I have to let them through?

Your lease probably has such a clause. Nevertheless, you should probably help her for good karma.

I'm not sure what you can do, but given the current market, do you think she will be able to sell? At least you still have a year(?) left on the lease - she would have to break it - are there any provisions in your lease?

I am renting too, and it concerns me that my landlord might also decide to sell.

I am renting too, and it concerns me that my landlord might also decide to sell.

I have decided to live only in an apartment complex until I buy, if at all possible. Now that repartments are beoming common, the risk of condomization should be small.

Peter P,

Well, I won't move until I have too - or the landlord sells, and then I'll move into an apartment complex until I'm ready to buy.

My problem is I'm in a month to month lease, which has never been an issue until now.

However, everyone that owns in this area are all saying that this area never goes down, or doesn't get affected much - in which case, the landlord will hopefully be very complacent and not want to sell before the market tanks - by then, we should be in a position to decide on buying something.

LILLL,

Do you really want to buy the house you're in? If your landlord is like mine, they spend the least amount of money they can on the property and the termites have been having a huge party for years. You ideally want to (or rather I do) buy from someone who's been living in their house, and maintaining it (and maybe improving it) over the years.

Is condomization some kind of birth control?

Oops. Should have said:

The incentivization of condominiumization has diminished. :)