0
0

Land Prices & the Property Bubble


 invite response                
2005 Aug 25, 1:03pm   12,273 views  126 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Per GreenCanopy's request:

Several here emphasize housing as an investment, shorn of mystique, a place to put money. While this a simplified picture, it is analysis-friendly. Treating housing as an asset class leads to a couple of interesting questions (–> topics?): To what degree can we understand the ‘bubble’ as herd-mentality asset rotation, and how can we further decompose the asset class called ‘housing’.

I like the second one first, because it has more to suggest for what types of property might do well during a deflation. Housing decomposed as Land+(Bricks+Sticks)+Labor+Regulation vs the MacroEc variables. What you haven’t covered (or I’ve missed) is an opinion on land prices and their behavior within the property bubble. Should they behave similarly?

Things to consider:

  • Higher housing supply = More available houses, but less attractive land. No, we’re not really running out of land, but is there enough of a perception to preserve a mania?
  • The NAAVLP phenomena applies much less to lots, as applications for land mortgages and construction loans are examined quite rigorously (simultaneously fogging two mirrors…). Perhaps speculation is as rampant with land, but could the landowner be less forced to run for the exits? Also, the tax burden is lower on unimproved land.
  • Study One, Bank of Canada, emphasizes land’s importance in housing appreciation:
    The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the U.S. http://tinyurl.com/dpx6u
  • Study Two, Cato, emphasizing regulation’s importance in housing appreciation:
    Zoning’s Steep Price http://tinyurl.com/dhng5
  • Thoughts?

    #housing

    « First        Comments 105 - 126 of 126        Search these comments

    105   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 3:15pm  

    Let's get this over with as quickly as possible, so we don't waste even more time on the subject, okay? I want a thumbs up or down on MP from EVERYONE --not just regulars.

    Prat, SactoQt, Peter P, Jack (need I ask?), TWIT, Gabby, Shmend Rick, Zephyr, Mr. Right, astrid (again, need I ask?), Yuan, Kurt S, Veritas, News, AntiTroll, primetroll, chan, SIM, hymie, pbass, ptiemann, SoldAtThePeak, Dipanjan, laverty, SiliconValleyRenter, NervousinOakland, Van Kouver, Jamie, Karrie, matt_walsh, Surfer-X, Cattle, Economist...

    Still waiting... what'll it be ??

    106   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:17pm  

    I think quesera's right, ignoring hasn't worked because there is always someone who'll answer. Maybe better to ban because intelligent people are leaving in disgust.

    107   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:18pm  

    Ban and be done with it.

    108   praetorian   2005 Aug 26, 3:27pm  

    I'm pretty doctrinaire about free speech, but sadly he's made the site measurably worse off for both sides of the debate. He's free to start his own no-doubt heavily traffic'd blog and discuss the finer points how how much better his life is than everyone elses there. It gives me no pleasure to say this, but...

    [mortal-kombat-voice] finish him [/mortal-kombat-voice]

    Cheers,
    prat

    109   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:32pm  

    Harm

    It just occured to me that my tolerance for MP has probably waned because I haven't had any poetry from primetroll to make it bearable. I think it was AntiTroll who offered to make MP some fugu, blindfolded no less. I wish MP would take him up on his offer. :twisted:

    110   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 3:40pm  

    Actually the fugu reference was from primetroll's latest Haiku masterpiece --see his 6:20 post. ;-)

    111   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:43pm  

    Oh my goodness, I got my people mixed up and didn't even realize primetroll was still making it interesting. What's wrong with me? Too much white noise I think...

    112   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 2:03am  

    @MarinaPrime,

    How on earth did this last post create such a fuss? Harm, News.. are you guys trying to ban me b/c we have this bet? That’s really weak guys. And then, i read some guy named ‘Chan’ calling me a POS asshole etc etc. When have i ever used a swear word or put down anybody?

    Even when provoked, i keep it pretty civil

    If you had bothered to read the entire thread you would have known that the bet or lack of civility on your part had nothing to do with it. And btw, I've deleted Chan's comments and gave him a warning.

    I really don't care one way or the other. Problem is, many others on this blog DO care, and your presence appears to be keeping many of them away. I don't like having to play the role of censor, but that's the way it is. I'm sorry, but it seems to have come down to either you or everyone else --we'll know by tonight anyway.

    113   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 2:07am  

    Peter, SactoQt,

    I'm going to be tied up until late tonight, so can you please monitor the active threads for me (if a flame war erupts, send the offenders' IPs to Patrick, etc.)? Thanks.

    114   Jamie   2005 Aug 27, 2:39am  

    So are we still supposed to vote? I will just in case. I personally would just say keep MP around for the sake of freedom of speech, because I find it easy to ignore his comments when they get overly useless (and I do think he's bizarrely--and unintentionally--funny), but if he's keeping intelligent posters away...I have to vote to ban. :-(

    But who will be the voice of dissent? Where's Fake P? I miss him.

    115   sfbayqt   2005 Aug 27, 2:51am  

    Jamie,

    Yes...For all who have not voted, per Harm's last post the deadline is still midnight tonight.

    BayQT~

    116   Peter P   2005 Aug 27, 4:41am  

    Re MP, I vote "abstain".

    117   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 5:18am  

    Well, MP has made his final farewell, twice. Yet promised to check in at the end of the year. :roll:

    Maybe we can have an actual discussion now.

    118   Peter P   2005 Aug 27, 5:44am  

    changing his name to Scrooge McDuck.

    LOL :lol:

    119   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 6:54am  

    Primetroll's idea has merit. If MP get's over his tantrum and checks back in, and the vote goes in the 'let him stay' direction, let him have his thread and those of us who'd rather not talk to him can just not participate in that thread. The real trick will be in getting him to stay off the other threads.

    120   KurtS   2005 Aug 27, 6:57am  

    Let’s get this over with as quickly as possible, so we don’t waste even more time on the subject, okay? I want a thumbs up or down on MP from EVERYONE –not just regulars.

    Well, only because we get "blogged down" on this one person--bye!
    Conversely, I think it's good to consider how I can bring something interesting/useflul to this site.

    121   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 6:59am  

    Well, only because we get “blogged down” on this one person–bye!
    Conversely, I think it’s good to consider how I can bring something interesting/useflul to this site.

    I suppose we should all be asking ourselves that.

    122   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 8:15am  

    Ultimately the problem with MP is that I want to give the guy the benefit of the doubt but he always screws it up for me. :neutral:

    123   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 5:36pm  

    Ok, it's past midnight, so the "polls are closed" so to speak. Fellow blogsters, may I have the envelope please.... (drumroll)

    Ban MP: 9
    (10 if you include astrid, who hasn't posted since the "incident")
    keep him: 2
    Abstain: 1

    BAN IT IS!

    124   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 6:19pm  

    Some parting thoughts...

    Things about MP I will miss:
    1. Having a relentless anti-bubble contrarian to argue with now that Fake P & Face Reality rarely post anymore.
    2. primetrolls' MP-inspired poetry
    3. His comic relief value --many of his claims and "arguments" were so ridiculous and over-the-top that they couldn't be taken seriously.

    Things about MP I WON'T miss:
    1. His immature, arrogant, solipsistic way of defining everything in relation to his own absurd, inflated ego-projection of himself.
    2. His tendency to provoke (or manage to be the center of) numerous nasty flame wars, thereby driving away quality posters.
    3. ALWAYS ON TRANSMIT NEVER ON RECEIVE (over time he improved somewhat, but this tendency never really went away).
    4. His whiny, disingenuous, fake self-pitying (see his "last" post above) and painting himself as a victim when he damned well knows WHY he's being banned.

    Too bad it has to come to this, but sometimes "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one."

    125   HARM   2005 Aug 28, 3:40am  

    Np, Jack. Hopefully this will put the matter to bed for good.
    I've already noticed a measurable improvement in the quality of posts and participation --heck, even Surfer-X came back to weigh in.

    126   praetorian   2005 Aug 28, 7:24am  

    “the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one.”

    Here's the great thing about the internet: He can start his own blog, and put out his message for all to consider. Not only that, he can turn on comments, and he can link to posts here, posting counter-arguments.

    So, he get's a forum for his viewpoints, and we don't have to do bayesian a**hole filtering when reading threads here. And, if the fancy strikes us, we can head over to his place to see his arguments.

    Really, it's a win-win.

    Cheers,
    prat

    « First        Comments 105 - 126 of 126        Search these comments

    Please register to comment:

    api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste