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What's Tomorrow's Agenda?


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2006 Aug 13, 12:41pm   18,555 views  109 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

balancing act

After a 2 year tightening cycle and 17 straight rate increases, the Fed has finally decided to pause. What do you think the Fed will do next?
Will the Fed pause again at their next meeting, or do you believe this is only a temporary reprieve? Or conversely, do you think it's possible the Fed could lower rates next time?
And most importantly, what do you think the Fed should do? What is in the best interest of the U.S. economy?
Also, will there be any real impact from the pause in the tightening cycle?

Lastly, what do you think the Fed's ultimate agenda is? Are they going to try to prop up housing to "save us" from a recession? Or do you think they will try to funnel U.S. $$ into something else, like the stock market?

#housing

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89   DinOR   2006 Aug 15, 4:57am  

SFWoman,

Uh, could someone refresh my memory here. Is this the same "15% is in the bag for Orange County" Gary Watts? Or is this a different guy? If so, how did we get from 15% in the bag to, "Please don't make your desperation to unload your overpriced pos so damn obvious"?

90   Peter P   2006 Aug 15, 4:59am  

Some rent for as much as 20K a month

I will not be surprised because I heard some hotels charge that much per day.

91   HARM   2006 Aug 15, 5:00am  

The lesser of those homes start around $1.5M. The three people I know who live there are roughly $2.4M, $3.5M, and one that’s maybe $4.0M.

My, we move in exclusive circles, don't we ;-). Please remember to toss me a few truffles and filet bones when I pass through the neighborhood, m'key?

92   DinOR   2006 Aug 15, 5:04am  

Peter P,

You know, I've heard those kind of numbers being thrown around by high end hotels but just because Robin Leach tells me that Mick Jagger paid 20K a night doesn't necessarily make it so? Or was "Sir" Elton?

Some of the homes in LV rent by the week also for the many convention goers as well. You DO save by taking the whole month but by the week is still pretty reasonable.

93   Peter P   2006 Aug 15, 5:10am  

Some of the homes in LV rent by the week also for the many convention goers as well. You DO save by taking the whole month but by the week is still pretty reasonable.

I think hotels are definitely cheaper than vacation condos. 30 nights/year at Four Seasons should cost WAY less than an IO mortgage of 1M.

94   Randy H   2006 Aug 15, 5:26am  

What a great stock market day, by the way.

Days with thin volume and strong breakouts are always good if you've bet the right direction.

Luckily for me the more doom & gloom I kept accumulating the more I reversed my bias to the bullish side.

95   DinOR   2006 Aug 15, 5:28am  

Peter P,

Let's say an avg. rate of $800 a night (Four SeasonsExecutive Suite) that's about 24K for the whole month. I'm not sure what an IO for a cool mil. would be but even if it WERE less, the "magic" seems to only work until midnight when the carriage turns back into a pumpkin anyway!

Not too sure how I'd feel about Mrs. DinOR brushing up on her tennis skills with the "resident pro" at the Four Seasons though?

96   Peter P   2006 Aug 15, 5:34am  

Not too sure how I’d feel about Mrs. DinOR brushing up on her tennis skills with the “resident pro” at the Four Seasons though?

Don't worry. It does not have a tennis court onsite. ;)

And don't worry about her gambling either. It does NOT have a casino.

http://www.fourseasons.com/lasvegas/

97   Peter P   2006 Aug 15, 5:35am  

That said, it is too pricy. I rather wait for those $149/night special at Venetian...

98   DinOR   2006 Aug 15, 5:38am  

MA,

I know it wasn't me. I've heard that for some time too. Can't get my mind wrapped around how exactly it is that GE and the likes are going to re-accelerate earnings and take a leadership role? In the end I guess I'm just a "widget" company guy. Last I looked Schering Plough is trading at like $19 a share? If you can deal with it call up a 10 yr. chart on SGP. Although I don't recommend it. It's too depressing.

99   Peter P   2006 Aug 15, 5:40am  

MA, there are ETFs on S&P/Barra indexes:

http://finance.yahoo.com/etf/education/09

You may want to take a look.

not investment advice

100   Peter P   2006 Aug 15, 5:43am  

However, SmallCap value has been outperforming LargeCap growth for quite a while:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=IJS&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=IVW

Is it possible that the turning point is near?

101   Peter P   2006 Aug 15, 5:47am  

The Four Seasons Mexico City is great, has enormous rooms for families, and is super cheap on weekends. The breakfast is also very, very good.

I have never been to Mexico City. How was the food in general? I never had luck with Mexican food. :(

102   DinOR   2006 Aug 15, 5:49am  

Well they say they have a "non-gaming atmosphere" but it's RIGHT ON the Strip!

One thing I HAVE learned about marriage over the years though is sadly gambling is infinitely cheaper than shopping! It can take 12 HOURS to burn through a couple of hundred bucks at penny slots! My buddy played a marathon session at the Silverton with "Lil' Lucy" and after about 14 hours he's UP six bucks?

Let's be honest here, how long does it take going shopping (no, not Walmart) to go through say 2/300 bucks?

When it comes to excess, how much worse is a casual gambling habit (bet's on the 49'ers) than a CHRONIC shopping condition?

103   Claire   2006 Aug 15, 5:51am  

So you guys like small caps, I was worried that I had made a mistake, the price of the fund I have has been tanking and I was considering cutting my losses and reducing the percentage I gave it in the portfolio, unfortunately it's in a 401k plan and I don't get much choice about which funds I can pick. Also I read in a Money magazine that traders were getting out of small caps - although that was a few months ago now. They seem to give a big weighting to large caps, but I'm not so sure. What do you think about mid-caps?

104   Peter P   2006 Aug 15, 5:53am  

Let’s be honest here, how long does it take going shopping (no, not Walmart) to go through say 2/300 bucks?

Not long enough.

When it comes to excess, how much worse is a casual gambling habit (bet’s on the 49′ers) than a CHRONIC shopping condition?

Shopping and gambling are all morally neutral bu themselves. The problem lies in the word "excess".

For me, food can be very expensive too. If I move to vegas, I will probably go broke without gambling. :)

105   Claire   2006 Aug 15, 5:58am  

I have been trying to consider who would fair better in a downturn, small cap versus midcap - i.e companies going bankrupt, I guess I'll know when it happens, luckily I don't have much money in the game at the minute, hopefully by the time I do, I'll be more savvy.

106   e   2006 Aug 15, 5:59am  

Where is this Strawberry?

107   Joe Schmoe   2006 Aug 15, 6:02am  

New Thread: REGIONAL RIVALRY

108   Randy H   2006 Aug 15, 6:38am  

eburbed

Strawberry is East of 101, the little Peninsula between Seminary Dr and Blithedale Ave/Tiburon Blvd. The McMansions are located in the new development up the hill or out on the point next to the water.

109   Allah   2006 Aug 15, 6:46am  

Is this legal?

$900000 CASH OUT RIGHT AFTER YOU PURCHASE! BUY AND REFI, WALK AWAY WITH CASH!

You can try that, but if you walk away, you'll be on the hook for the $900K. The bankruptcy law will enforce it unless you spent it on consumables.

but this certainly is:


We can use your old appraisal, or have it reappraised for a higher amount to get more cash out!

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