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Another Demographic Projection


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2013 Dec 12, 5:40am   1,014 views  4 comments

by Bellingham Bill   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

This one is kinda interesting, it graphs Age 20-24 population vs Age 65-69

The closer these get together the theoretically easier it will be for people to find jobs, as the boomers age out of the workforce into retirement.

The takeaway is that we'll have a tailwind here for employment through 2026.

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1   Bellingham Bill   2013 Dec 12, 5:45am  

Putting things in perspective, I'll add age 70+ in green:

Hello Senior Service Economy!

2   Bellingham Bill   2013 Dec 12, 5:50am  

School-Age in Purple:

Indicates there'll be education hiring as young'uns are increasing while the baby boomer teacher contingent will be leaving en-masse.

The median boomer is age 59 in 2014!

3   humanity   2013 Dec 13, 2:45am  

Bellingham Bill says

The closer these get together the theoretically easier it will be for people to find jobs, as the boomers age out of the workforce into retirement.

I don't see why. Wouldn't it be better if 65 - 69 was going up at the same time that 20 - 24 is ? In your first graph the 65 to 69 group is relatively constant.

I think I would rather see a graph of 60 to 65 against the a 25 - 30 age group.

Can you do that ?

Some people take longer to finish college for any number of reasons, or are in very entry level jobs the fist couple years. Which is why I think people early in career but not 22 - 23, against those at the end (60 - 65) would be more telling. I guess maybe 65 - 69 is more representative of end of career these days.

4   Bellingham Bill   2013 Dec 13, 3:10am  

humanity says

I don't see why. Wouldn't it be better if 65 - 69 was going up at the same time that 20 - 24 is ?

anything to close that gap in the first graph is good, yes.

If my thinking about 'replationary' demographics is correct at least.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LRUN24TTUSM156S

is unemployment for young adults

the 65 to 69 group is relatively constant

rising 33% in the next 15 years isn't so constant!

I think I would rather see a graph of 60 to 65 against the a 25 - 30 age group.

Just move the blue curve to the right 1/2" and the red to the left 1/2" ;)

Japan's demographics are interesting:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=pZA

now that's a good curve if you're a young person looking for work, IMO.

Outside of any domestic youth-oriented industries of course.

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