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Regional Rivarly


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2006 Aug 15, 6:00am   22,214 views  212 comments

by Joe Schmoe   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

By Joe Schome.

To me, one of the most interesting aspects of the bubble is that its effects are felt differently in differnet areas. Not just on a nationwide level -- appreciation has been mostly flat in TX, while prices have tripled in many parts of CA -- but the bubble even affects different regions of the same state in a disparate way.

For example, while the median price in the SF Bay Area is higher than the LA median, I think that SF is nonetheless far, far more affordable than LA.

For example, you can get a 2BR condo in a decent school district like Walnut Creek (average SAT score 1140) for $200k. To get a 2BR condo in an LA school district with that kind of average SAT score, you'd have to spend at least $400k, and probably $600k.

The disparity in SFH prices isn't as pronounced, but there is a disparity there too. For example, as of this posting there are 32 SFH's for sale in the SF Bay Area's best public school district, Cupertino (average HS SAT score 1251). In San Marino, the LA area's best public school district (average HS SAT score 1231), there are 5. Now, Cupertino has roughly two and a half times as many listings as San Marnio and is about four times as populous, so it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but the fact remains that Cupertino is cheaper. Also -- and this is really important -- SFH's are not the only type of housing for sale in Cupertino. There are 2BR condos in Cupertino starting at $545k. San Marino is zoned solely for single family homes, there is not a single condo in the entire community. The cheapest avaialble listing of any kind in San Marino is a 1,000 square foot 2BR house for $798k.

So viewed in this light, while the SF Bay Area may have a significantly higher median price than LA, it is actually far more afforadble. A middle class, college-educated family not might want to live in a 2BR condo in Walnut Creek, but they can afford to do so if they stretch just a little bit. In SoCal, by contrast, the situation is much worse for middle class families. While there are several $200k condos in Walnut Creek, a place with very good schools, there is not a single 2BR condo listed for less than $200k in Compton, SoCal's worst public school district. Thus, the folks in SoCal are getting squeezed by the bubble a lot more than folks in NorCal.

The bubble is even more intersting in places like NYC. There, a generic 2BR condo in a one of the nicer areas of NYC's Upper West Side will cost you $949k. We're talking about Jerry Seinfeld's apartment here, not a high-end place with a view of Central Park or the river. The upper-income suburbs of New York are dirt cheap by comparison. Private schools are a must. Mehdham, NJ has SFH's starting at $374k; Scarsdale, NY (a city with an average per capita family income in excess of $200k) SFH's start at $600k. Values are all over the map in the NYC area. Clearly, the bubble affects different regions differently.

#housing

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159   Sylvie   2006 Aug 16, 5:02am  

X - man no apologies needed. I just thought you were the local patrick neighborhood watch patrol. Humor rules.....

160   astrid   2006 Aug 16, 5:19am  

fewlesh,

There'll be a step up in basis when you inherit. So what capital gains?

161   astrid   2006 Aug 16, 5:29am  

SQT,

You may want to search for an uncharacteristic remark by "you" and get rid of it too.

162   DinOR   2006 Aug 16, 5:32am  

That's why I CAN'T STAND CNBC! They totally cater to people that use the House ATM to fund 5K ETrade gambling (damn it, I mean "trading") accounts. Almost all of their on screen "talent" colors the coverage with their subjective opinions it's hardly worth watching at all.

Make the switch over to Bloombergs. NONE of their talking heads believe that THEY are bigger than the event they are being paid to COVER! There are plenty of people I can go to if I want to hear opinions.

163   astrid   2006 Aug 16, 5:32am  

Mr. Vincent,

Unfortunately, it's probably best to just to totally ignore some of the comments here. I tried enforcing a consistent standard on comments on my threads once...and I don't start threads anymore.

164   DinOR   2006 Aug 16, 5:38am  

astrid,

I really couldn't tell where Fewlesh was trying to take us either? "Just flip your properties into a 401K kinda like thing then will them to junior". Huh? What? Is anyone out there aware of any prayer in the slightest that will get you from assets long held OUTSIDE of a "qualified plan" account INTO a retirement account and mind you all of this without so much as having a JOB?

165   Claire   2006 Aug 16, 5:53am  

Well you can will a ROTH IRA to your family and they are not required to draw from it, so it can be passed on down the generations. And you can get an intermediary to set up either (and I can't remember the exact details) a 401k or IRA with investment property (but I'm not sure it can be existing property), but it has to be carefully done or the IRS will have you. Not sure you can do it without a job though....but if you have investment property income, maybe there's a spin there somewhere....

166   DinOR   2006 Aug 16, 6:13am  

BA,

Don't forget all the equity locusts from Las Vegas buying there too!

167   DinOR   2006 Aug 16, 6:17am  

maybe there's a spin in there somewhere"

Claire, spin indeed. I've heard of these Miracle Roth IRA Seminars where the gist is to take an 80 year old (show them as having an income) and pump up their Roth as a means to pass wealth tax free. Where this house of cards falls apart is that guys like me don't have the audacity to tell a client it's O.K to show a now 84 year old janitor as recieving a "consultants fee" to show earned income!

*Not tax advice

168   HARM   2006 Aug 16, 7:06am  

RE: the "colorful exchange" between Surfer-X and Mr. Vincent.

I second Peter P & SQT: banning X? Never gonna happen.

OTH, the impartial, detached moderator part of me (reluctantly) says: "You know, Mr. Vincent may actually have a point. X was the one who first injected profanity in a personal way. Of course, X without his profanity is like a Boomer without his Viagra."

Then the not-so-detached, pissed off/screwed-over Gen-Xer in me says, "F--K yah!! Go give that smarmy, arrogant Boomer asshat the verbal ass-whooping he so richly deserves!"

What to do, what to do...
Oh, wait, this isn't even my thread! (whew! dodged that bullet :-) ).

169   skibum   2006 Aug 16, 7:23am  

DinOR Says:

That’s why I CAN’T STAND CNBC! They totally cater to people that use the House ATM to fund 5K ETrade gambling (damn it, I mean “trading”) accounts.

Remember that CNBC stands for CONSUMER NEWS business channel. They're just living up to the moniker (pro housing ATM consumer). They suck. Kudlow gives me a huge headache. I want to take that white collar of his and strangle him every time I see that tool.

170   Sylvie   2006 Aug 16, 7:28am  

I've been thinking about Austin as one of the possible destinations in the next six month. Everything I've read indicate housing is really affordable in fact Texas in general has high affordability.

171   Sylvie   2006 Aug 16, 7:35am  

OH God Kudlow is on now EST. He is such a piece of work... They are so pissed off that people might find all this bad housing and economic slowdown news a reason to vote a different party in next time. As we get closer to november they get more agitated.

172   Randy H   2006 Aug 16, 7:35am  

I think CNBC is reasonable during market hours. I heard plenty of housing hard-landing sentiment today. There is a bias towards a total-economy soft-landing right now, but they're just following momentum. Anyway, it's always good to see the occasional smugsuck senior analyst get humiliated on the big screen.

The commercials in this area at least are the best. About 15-20% of them are Remax love your realtor(tm) ads.

173   astrid   2006 Aug 16, 7:51am  

Sheesh, get your news from the internet and cut out the commercial breaks. :)

174   Glen   2006 Aug 16, 7:58am  

The news is all good! Haven't you heard? Inflation (ex food, energy, health care, education and housing) is under control!

175   Peter P   2006 Aug 16, 8:07am  

I just saw on Google News that they have arrested Jon Benet’s killer.

But what about Natalie Holloway?

176   skibum   2006 Aug 16, 8:11am  

Randy H Says:

I think CNBC is reasonable during market hours.

One thing I'll give them is the reporters of the female persuasion are generally very attractive. I wonder if that had an effect when Bendover Ben blurted his opinion to Maria Bartiromo at that party a few months ago...

177   skibum   2006 Aug 16, 8:15am  

Peter P Says:

"I just saw on Google News that they have arrested Jon Benet’s killer."

But what about Natalie Holloway?

Are you implying Natalie Holloway is Jon Benet's killer?

178   Glen   2006 Aug 16, 8:18am  

One thing I’ll give them is the reporters of the female persuasion are generally very attractive.

What, you don't like Suzy Assaad?

http://tinyurl.com/pcd7a

(Glen-- I changed the link to a tinyurl because it was skewing the whole page-- SQT)

179   Glen   2006 Aug 16, 8:19am  

Whoa... I think I crashed the site with that link!

180   astrid   2006 Aug 16, 8:20am  

"I just saw on Google News that they have arrested Jon Benet’s killer."

Wow, that harkens back to lighter, more innocent days when this country thought it's biggest problem was angry gun toting suburban teens.

181   Peter P   2006 Aug 16, 8:22am  

Are you implying Natalie Holloway is Jon Benet’s killer?

Huh?

182   Peter P   2006 Aug 16, 8:23am  

I was just trying to find out if there is progress on the Aruba case.

183   Glen   2006 Aug 16, 8:27am  

America's favorite news stories:

5. political sex scandal
4. celebrity crime
3. pretty white girl disappears (under age of consent)
2. live car chase
1. pretty white girl disappears (over age of consent)

184   astrid   2006 Aug 16, 8:33am  

Yeah, we can all do with more HOT WHITE SLAVE ring exposes. Maybe Ken Starr could do an independent counsel report for HOT WHITE SLAVERY of 17 year old blonde girls.

Maybe it's time to watch Spartan again. Gotta get the girl.

185   skibum   2006 Aug 16, 8:37am  

Peter P Says:

"Are you implying Natalie Holloway is Jon Benet’s killer?"

Huh?

Sorry, a bad attempt at humor.

186   Randy H   2006 Aug 16, 9:13am  

One thing I’ll give them is the reporters of the female persuasion are generally very attractive.

I wonder if that had an effect when Bendover Ben blurted his opinion to Maria Bartiromo at that party a few months ago…

That's putting it mildly. Many of them are prone to having that "Seinfeld's super attractive girlfriend Nicky episode" effect. I'd hate to run into any of them at a cocktail party whilst holding SEC 10b/14e information.

187   speedingpullet   2006 Aug 16, 9:31am  

CNN has had the JonBonet thing running all day. I suppose it makes a nice change from explosions in the Middle East.

Still, you have to wonder how much 'news'it is. Breathless reporters asking a different cell-phone broadcast talking head every hour what's going on, and they keep on saying 'we don't know at this time...'

And there's poor old Wolf Blitzer, standing there in night-time Jerusalem, doing links about it.

188   Sylvie   2006 Aug 16, 9:58am  

Hey gang found and interesting site that compliments this site.

EconomyinCrisis.org

Check it out it covers alot of what is wrog with the national economy.

189   Sylvie   2006 Aug 16, 10:00am  

Too bad Patsy didn't live to see this.. I think the Ramseys suffered the stress effects of the stigma. I think it killed Patsy sooner. Tragic

190   Allah   2006 Aug 16, 10:11am  

Was at the bank today;had to take care of some business so I was sitting a (half hour or so) while in a cube by the window. Across the street from the bank I can see a realtors office;door held open by a stone, dark inside. The entire time I was there I didn't see one person enter or leave. I asked the banker, "They don't seem to be to busy over there, huh?". She tells me, "I haven't seen anyone enter or leave there the whole year". We both looked at each other and laughed.

191   skibum   2006 Aug 16, 10:57am  

allah,
I love the anecdotes. Keep 'em coming!

BTW, if you haven't seen it yet, the DQ Bay Area numbers are out for July:

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0806.shtm

A choice portion of the press release:

Last month was the slowest July since 1996 when 7,682 homes were sold. The average July sales count since 1988 is 9,158.

"One of the questions being asked is how much future activity was drawn into the present in 2004 and 2005 when interest rates were at their lowest levels in decades. How much of today's demand has already been met? If the market is indeed going into a lull, expect low sales and flat prices through fall and on into next year," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $627,000 last month. That was down 2.6 percent from June's record $644,000, and up 3.5 percent from $606,000 for July a year ago. Last month's year-over- year increase was the lowest since May 2003 when the $427,000 median was up 3.4 percent.

Has anyone else noticed that the new standard realtwhore line these days is, "the reason for low sales volume is that everyone who was 'supposed' to buy this year (and next) already bought in 2004-2005 because of low interest rates." That's just pure BS.

192   e   2006 Aug 16, 12:09pm  

Has anyone else noticed that the new standard realtwhore line these days is, “the reason for low sales volume is that everyone who was ’supposed’ to buy this year (and next) already bought in 2004-2005 because of low interest rates.” That’s just pure BS.

Did they hire Baghdad Bob?

193   Michael Holliday   2006 Aug 16, 1:20pm  

Here's an interesting Freudian Slip:

shit_hits_the_fan Says:

"I’ll add my 2 cents worth. I would assume the real reason why there are such cost diffrences in terms of housing between LA and SF is the kinds of people that lice in these areas."
_____

Yes, the kind of people who LICE in these areas.

You mean the kind of lice that people these areas, don't you?

Ha, ha!

Someone please tell me another Kiyosaki story, particularly the kind about his charlatanry. I'm in need of some merriment.

194   surfer-x   2006 Aug 16, 2:07pm  

Banned? Shit I don't care if Mr. Vincent has four fucking olives in his Martini.

Go for it, I say it's more of a salad at that point.

I think I need an intervention, thinking of making payments to loan company for house in Ventura. Cuter than shit Ca bungalow.

Help HARM. Perhaps Sunday Sept 3rd blog party?

Send money, guns and lawyers.

195   Randy H   2006 Aug 16, 2:32pm  

Rick Reno,

Your is a pronoun, reflecting genitive form. You're is a contraction, comprised of a normally nominative case subject and verb.

Apparently good grammar was less emphasized in earlier generations.

196   Randy H   2006 Aug 16, 2:45pm  

Troll,

lol. I've never even had a beard. I did use to kick bullies' asses when they fucked with me though. Bullies are pretty much always wimps; which you probably didn't realize about yourself growing up while thinking you were tough by taking the retarded kid's lunch money.

197   Randy H   2006 Aug 16, 2:48pm  

you are from a different generation and for that I am sorry for you.

LMFAO.

Apparently you were concerned about yourselves. Or didn't you have children? I sure hope not.

198   surfer-x   2006 Aug 16, 2:50pm  

Randy H, any chance of being in $B during the labor day holidaze? If so Sire, I most humbly offer you the chance to get loaded at my pathetic rental.

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