patrick.net

Here in the Northeast, the low inventory means high prices and houses still going under agreement withing days or weeks. I don't know where you all live, but even I feel like I missed the boat and am willing to pay more for less.

I live in the northeast, and our lease ends in june. So we've been shooping both the rental market and the used house market. There's plenty to pick from, but the majority of it is overpriced crap.

I already own one house, but for our current needs, renting a primary residence has been a much better deal ( 1375 per month rent for a house that will hit the market @ 270k)

Agreed. Most is overpriced crap. I should have been more specific...anything worth looking at is closer to 475-600K in MA and things in that range are still going pretty quickly (and even with that, most of the houses still need upgrades). I was looking to pay between 400-450K and am now trying to figure out how to do 550K or more. I can only swing that with a huge down payment (which I have, thankfully) but only in locations with lower taxes. Unfortunately, the towns I am looking at have very high taxes (10K or more for that price range).

Yes, taxes are a bitch. In our current cozy little locale, the landlord is forking over 400 of that 1375 per month over in taxes. They are taking a bath, as they bought the house new in 2007 for 369k,,,,

I'm interested to see how motivated they are to sell. They won't renew our lease for another year, instead saying if they don't sell, were welcome to continue on a month to month basis. If something like that enters the fold, I'm going to demand some sort of compensation in the event that we'd be forced to move with such short notice

tts says

You can be totally mentally and physically fit and still end up poor if your economy is busted.

Economy doesn't look busted to me. Looks like average wage went up 7%. Robert Reich's graph should go into the next edition of "How to Lie with Statistics" if there is a next edition.

http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728/

First flaw in graph is no labels in the Y-axis.

Second flaw is no information about non-US wages. Non-US wages went up with globalization. So we are missing a bunch of wage growth. I'll bet extremely poor parts or China had percentage gains that blow away the productivity gains. This should be obvious when you are dealing with a small base.

Third flaw is why is he only going back to 1947? Quick search on Google shows many papers about productivity in the 19th century. But including that data might complicate the story he's trying to sell.

Homeboy says

Ah, quoting out of context - the last resort of one who has been beaten.

The things YOU EXPLAINED are patently obvious. But the things you explained are not the things I ASKED you to explain.

OK--at this point I don't even know what your question is. Why don't you try to clearly state it?

Homeboy says

My contention is that we were discussing the DOW, and you all of a sudden substituted in the NASDAQ. Why?

Because it illustrated my point. You didn't answer my question...

Homeboy says

So you don't understand that a percentage has to be OF something? Wow, I am floored. Didn't think I needed to explain this, but 10% of 100 is a different amount than 10% of 1000. If you are talking about a percentage, and you don't know what it is a percentage OF, then you quite simply don't know what you're talking about.

Of course I understand that. And I clearly stated it in my post earlier:

tatupu70 says

You obviously use the entire index value because you are comparing to a set starting point. You want to see the change from that index starting point value.

Like I said--I'm tiring of this. If you really have a question, please ask it and stop with the childish nonsense.

hrhjuliet says

It's not inventory, it's price. The houses on the market are going to sit there until the prices go down.

Easy enough to find out. Go to Redfin and look up the stats for your area of interest. you should find charts showing recent listing and sale prices per sqft. If your neighborhood is like mine you will find sale price / list price > 1 and you will also see crazy priced houses go pending in a week.

good luck.

My views on Bitcoin

http://smaulgld.com/bitcoin-a-mining-disaster-waiting-to-happen/

http://smaulgld.com/the-case-against-bitcoin-a-faith-basedemotion-backed-currency/

It's all about the weather. We never had so much weather in history as in the past three months

"Does this tool belt make me look fat?"

CaptainShuddup says

My point is, we'll be bailing out Pepsi and Coke before we know it.

The to big to Gulp act.

Bush/Republicans bailed out the TBTF.So what's wrong with more Big Govt. Republican private business Socialism. The House of Republicans didn't stop all of their Big Govt. funding to prevent the auto bailout.

Current rally is a sucker's rally.

DUMP it now or regret later.

bgamall4 says

Exactly, they believe the NWO will be taken down but the NWO will incorporate it at the time of their choosing.

so obvious a Trojan horse. Digital currency/cashless society is the goal of NWO-total tracking/total control

The Austrians pretty much side with gold going up do to debasing of the currency.

The reality is that we have deflation and the only way gold goes up in value is inflation.

We are not going to have hyperinflation unless there is an extremely unlikely event.

The thing that makes the most sense to me is what Mish pointed out that the credit market has shrunk from what was 50 trillion to probably I'm guessing half that now.

In addition the dollar is still the most trusted currency (plus reserve currency status) so the dollars that are printed are spread across a big area.

This plus the fact that China is re balancing so the demand for commodities is way down.

Mike Pettis (Chinese Economist) he sees gold going lower by half

Of course this is just what I read...

So far the trend seems to remain in place.

indigenous says

This plus the fact that China is re balancing so the demand for commodities is way down.

China is also offloading US treasuries - watch out ;)

bgamall4 says

Perhaps they will come forward some day. But the argument that it is fake is not based upon family members blowing the cover of other family members. Now look at you being stupid Bigsby.

What about friends? How many friends have come forward? How many acquaintances? How many tens of thousands of people do you think that amounts to? You think this entire thing is a hoax because you believe 2 people look the same, one father acted strangely to YOU, and what else, oh yes, you can't see what you think are real tears in a couple of photos/interviews. That's it, isn't it? Try and guess how stupid that makes YOU look.

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

I don't mean to be rude or anything.

But if you are that young... Don't worry too much about what's happening with the economy.

WARNING!

Renting for Half The Cost has been caught in multiple lies on this forum. When caught this person does not admit wrongdoing but doubles down on the lie to ridiculous levels.

Do not believe anything posted by this person.

You have been warned.

mell says

indigenous says

This plus the fact that China is re balancing so the demand for commodities is way down.

China is also offloading US treasuries - watch out ;)

Yea but they already have taken dollars for goods.

Yup in the future they will buy fewer treasuries but they are looking at the same situation as the US in the early 30s they are not going to have fun. Until they develop their consumer market.

Bubble 2.0

or rather 1.1 since the only difference from 1.0 is that this time the govt is promising bailouts BEFORE the crash rather than after.

Tim Aurora says

hrhjuliet says

It's not inventory, it's price. The houses on the market are going to sit there until the prices go down.

Is that a wish, hope or dream. Anyways, you are allowed to have an opinion but until you can back it up with some kind of logic, it remains only as a wish.

It's not a wish. My home price goes down if the market goes down. I can see past my own little world though. The average home price should be about twice the median income. The market is artificially inflated and and therefore a risky investment. Only a fool would buy now. Yes, some fools will still be out there buying in this market, but that group is going to shrink. You can't make people buy at inflated prices. If you think this market is going up you are the one making wishes. At best it will flatline, but more than likely the market is going to tilt down, no matter how subtle, towards normal. The powers that be can't be can't prop up this mess forever.

A hybrid.

Behold the Champagne & Chicago Hot Dog!

Home prices should defiantly go up with these mortgages government backed.

They will very slowly lower the standards one by one.

The tapering from the Federal Reserve should also crash the precious metals markets.

Possibly strengthen dollars by a long shot and have another bubble economy.

Real estate flipping will be back. Those smart enough to quickly get in and out before the bubble pops will profit.

Another MASSIVE tech bubble should be here too like the on in 1999.

If the tech bubble collapses... The dollars will be moved to real estate.

Furthering the bubble.

During the height of the bubble. Precious metals will be all-time lows.

That's the time to acquire it. Not now.

Losses of the precious metals market maybe as much as 80% decline of gold and silver. Especially silver.

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

You are not a quack and should really not be ignored. Happy to say.

When ducks quack, people listen.

Flipping is already en vogue and tapering. It would need to heat up big time to get them back in. I feel like this subprime will benefit lower middle class more...ie those with weaker credit scores. Maybe won't help the middle and upper middle as much? And thus not be widespread?

I suppose this is the story of FHA since its inception. It should have ended within 5 years like the ownership policy that immediately preceded it (holc?). But when a "free" market becomes dependent on crack...there is only one institution able to provide endless supplies.

Never cease to be amazed at how simple everything is to Mish.

Chicago is an easy city to live in without a car, or to get around in without a car if you don't want to drive downtown (that is you take a train in or "the el.)"

This is because of taxis, which compete with eachother and have a long established system that involves regulations and licensing etc.

These new less regulated networks are great in some ways, but given the chance to grow, they could destroy or drastically hurt the ability of those in the old system to make a living driving a cab.

Then what happens ?

Will what happens automatically be whats best in the long run for the customers who currently rely on taxi cabs to get around all the time ?

The answers to these questions are not as simple as Mish would like to make them.

I can't imagine how the thinking goes. Is it something like this ?

Competition is always good, even if it totally destroys one established system, bringing in another that ultimately might not be nearly as good, for the customers or for the service providers ?

tatupu70 says

OK--at this point I don't even know what your question is. Why don't you try to clearly state it?

No, you know what the question is. You just don't know how to answer it, so you continue to obfuscate. Not gonna re-state a question I've already stated 6 or 7 times.

tatupu70 says

Because it illustrated my point.

Um, no - non sequiturs don't illustrate your point.

tatupu70 says

Of course I understand that. And I clearly stated it in my post earlier:

tatupu70 says

You obviously use the entire index value because you are comparing to a set starting point. You want to see the change from that index starting point value.

You say you understand it, yet you refused to answer my question, and instead refer me back to an earlier post. And then you accuse ME of childish nonsense. Riiiight....

Look, I've given you ample opportunity to make your case, and it is painfully obvious now that you are unable to. All you have succeeded in is getting angry and calling me names. I believe what's going on here is that somebody told you that percentages are the way to "normalize" market data, but you haven't the slightest clue how or why, and that angers you. You can't explain it because you don't really understand it yourself.

bgamall4 says

Ah, there was a lady on the emergency line saying on the day of the hoax that the rumor was it was a hoax. Been there done that Bigsby, but it won't change your mind.

You have one person, ONE, on the day of the event saying they heard it may be a hoax (presumably not meaning a massive government hoax, but a hoax as in a prank call or some such - hardly that surprising given how out of the ordinary the actual event was) and YOU think that's proof. Like I said before, how many thousands upon thousands of people do those involved know. And how many have come forward to say that they are acting? It's a simple question. What's the answer Gary?
The answer is, as with all your hoax nonsense, that you grab hold of the most tenuous of arguments like a rabid dog whilst simultaneously ignoring the absolute tidal wave of actual evidence that runs completely contrary to what you are saying. That makes you a very foolish person and one who seems to have a very loose grip on reality.

bgamall4 says

They moved in a couple of years before and most are likely gone.

Wow, some people (you claim) moved in a couple of years before (amazing) and most are likely to have gone (YOU claim, naturally with zero evidence for said claim). That's classic Gary right there.

The market health ultimately is determined by

individual investor sentiment
valuations such as price to earnings ratio and price to book ratio
inflation (i.e., commodity prices like oil and energy)
interest rates

We need to just say no to purchasing homes in this artificially inflated market.

I used inductive reasoning and abductive reasoning to reach my conclusion. My argument does not lack logic, we simply do not agree.

Homeboy says

No, you know what the question is. You just don't know how to answer it, so you continue to obfuscate. Not gonna re-state a question I've already stated 6 or 7 times

lol--after all the nonsense you've posted you refuse to post your actual question? OK then.

I've repeatedly answered it.

Homeboy says

You say you understand it, yet you refused to answer my question, and instead refer me back to an earlier post. And then you accuse ME of childish nonsense. Riiiight....

Homeboy says

All you have succeeded in is getting angry and calling me names.

Really--what names have I called you?

Homeboy says

I believe what's going on here is that somebody told you that percentages are the way to "normalize" market data, but you haven't the slightest clue how or why, and that angers you. You can't explain it because you don't really understand it yourself.

Again--percentages normalize the gains and losses. If you know that an index loses 3%--you know exactly how much money you've lost. 3% of your investment. It works for all indices, stocks, investments, etc. It's apples to apples when comparing to other indices, other time periods, other investments, etc. And you have to use the starting value and the ending value to calculate the % return. Otherwise you don't accurately calculate the % return on your investment.

The reason you use percentages is so you can calculate the return on investment which can be compared to other ROIs.

Rin says

who hang out in the Boston sports internet lounges are like PatNet, they have a real job out there, and then, this fantasy land of speculating about trade

I just did a checkup on this kid and yes, he's interested in Fantasy Sports Boston.

Sorry, but that's no career aspiration.

What were you expecting from a country that's 90% blacks?

Great report. Sounds like a great model for the future USA.

I moved out when I was 17 to live in the college dorms and have been on my own since.

Tim Aurora says

hrhjuliet says

abductive reasoning

What the heck is abductive reasoning??

Oh dear goodness, that explains a lot.

I prefer the kind of structure, built by the priviliged in D.C., Chicago, SF and NY, to benefit their way of life, be forced on those of us in flyover country, unilaterally. And of course, funded wholly on the backs of labor via fed income taxes?

Am I doing it right, sbh