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"But the new monetary morality has nothing to do with virtue, and everything to do with necessity. It is no accident that the concept of "inflation" has experienced a dramatic makeover during the past few years. Traditionally, mainstream discussion treated inflation as a pestilence best vanquished by a strong economy and prudent bankers. Now it is widely seen as a pre-condition to economic health. Economists are making this bizarre argument not because it makes any sense, but because they have no other choice.
America is trying to borrow its way out of recession. We are creating debt now in order to push up prices and create the illusion of prosperity. To do this you must convince people that inflation is a good thing...even while they instinctively prefer low prices to high. But rising asset prices do little to help the underlying economy. That is why we have been stuck in what some economists are calling a "jobless recovery." The real reason it's jobless is because it's not a real recovery! So while the current booms in stocks and condominiums have been gifts to financial speculators and the corporate elite, average Americans can only watch from the sidewalks as the parade passes them by. That's why sales of Mercedes and Maseratis are setting record highs while Fords and Chevrolets sit on showroom floors. Rising prices to do not create jobs, increase savings or expand production. Instead all we get is debt, which at some point in the future must be repaid."
Yep - 'nuff said!
Save that there is no market clearing and banks are not lending and the credit market has shrunk and innovation has resulted in deflation.
That deflation is the real thorn that the FED cannot tolerate.
Things would be orders of magnitude better if they would allow the market to clear.
The real reason it's jobless is because it's not a real recovery!
Bush's recovery up to 2004 was a jobless recovery, but 2005-2007 was anything but.
The Obama recovery 2009-2014, such as it is, matches the 2002-2007 almost precisely:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=u3n
it's nothing to write home about, but since it took $6T in consumer debt take-on to give us the Bush Boom/Bubble, it doesn't surprise me that a similar debt rise has given us the Obama Recovery.
It's not a bubble since it's not predicated on unsustainable flows like the housing bubble was.
Rising prices to do not create jobs, increase savings or expand production. Instead all we get is debt, which at some point in the future must be repaid
If only prices rise, things will be fucked, yes. But rising prices is one half of a wage-price spiral, what our idiot system is trying to engineer, and a wage-price spiral will in fact devalue existing debt, just like it inflated away our WW2 debt, 1970-83.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=u3p
we were running big deficits in the 1970s (for the time), yet debt to GDP went down!
Now, I don't think a wage-price spiral is in the cards, since we don't have a massive intake of employable women to boost household incomes like what we had in 1970, nor do we have the demographic bumrush that 1970-90 was, where the economy gained FORTY MILLION JOBS (1994-2014 has seen a +30M job gain on a much bigger base -- in percentage terms the 1970-1990 growth was over TWICE the 20-year GOP congress period 1994-2014).
What we do have is a reserve army of underemployed now, where we are 12M jobs short of the 1999 'full employment'.
Manufacturing, construction, information employment is dead. Retail is maxed out apparently, more or less on direct internet sales' chopping block.
We're fucked, yet corporate profits are $2T/yr and Gini has never been higher.
Libertarians, GOP don't have any solutions to that, they celebrate that actually, since AEI, US Chamber of Commerce, Hudson Institute, Hoover Institution, Cato, and the rest of the right-wing message machine are fronts for corporate and oligarchic fascist interests like Koch, Olin, Scaife, etc.
Again, we're fucked. Relocating to a less fucked place is not a bad idea. Too bad Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark are so North. I speak Japanese, so they're semi-viable for me, but I can't make heads or tails of their prospect (they're 2X in the debt hole we are and are trying the same BS with Abenomics we're doing).
But this does bring up the fact that the US dollar is just too damn overvalued. The Mexican factory wage is $2/hr, and the Shenzhen wage is still not much higher even with promised wage increases and some yuan strengthening.
And as for all this debt, it's owed to the Maserati and Mercedes set. Default would be in order, and my default I mean printing it away, since countries with debt in their own fiat currency can soft-default if & when they choose.
A weaker dollar would make American mfg wages more competitive again. It would also pull more ag wealth out of the country, which sucks for us.
But our $500B/yr trade deficit isn't going to go away without a more competitive dollar! (Can't say 'weaker' since 99% of our miseducated populace would automatically think that's bad).
If Schiff really wants a vibrant middle class again, he needs to figure out what policy will keep more income within the middle-class paycheck economy.
We've got $6T flowing out of it via corporate profits, housing and health expenditures ($2T each on all).
Health does have some good employment but other two are a horror show for the middle class an we can't expect conservatives to fix this since they're the ones profiting from the policies that created these flows.
it's nothing to write home about, but since it took $6T in consumer debt take-on to give us the Bush Boom/Bubble, it doesn't surprise me that a similar debt rise has given us the Obama Recovery.
This is what i don't get about these Keynesians. How can you call something a recovery when it requires you to take on unsustainable debt?
If only prices rise, things will be fucked, yes.
Problem is, prices are in comparison, the only thing rising. I did a little math of 8 year price and wage changes:
2004
Gold = 526
Oil = 51
Milk 16.04
Corn = 2.47
Soybeans = 7.56
Cattle = 89.67
Coal = 81.60
Wage = 35,648
Wage/wk = 685
2012
Gold = 1,638
Oil = 95
Milk = 20.01
Corn = 6.67
Soybeans = 13.95
Cattle = 127.58
Coal = 182.48
Wage = 44,321
Wage/wk = 852
8 - Yr Percentage Change
Gold - 211% Increase
Oil - 85% Increase
Milk - 25% Increase
Corn - 170% Increase
Soybeans - 84% Increase
Cattle - 42% Increase
Coal - 123% Increase
Wages/Yr - 24% Increase
Wages/Wk - 24% Increase
Every Item I've listed in the 8 year period (except for the price of milk) has vastly outpaced the rate of wages
.
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=commodity-price-index&months=300
http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/uspricehistory/us_price_history.html
http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-100-year-historical-chart
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html
Edit: I actually low-balled the price of gold. In Dec 2012 Gold was over $1,600. Math has been updated.
Every Item I've listed in the 8 year period (except for the price of milk) has vastly outpaced the rate of wages
Good post - this is exactly the core of the problem. While they fumble to rearrange the basket to keep inflation numbers seemingly "low" it doesn't really matter if it's "only" 2%-3% per year, if wages don't keep up that's fucking brutal. And if you take the everyday essentials inflation index, the yearly avg. inflation is more like 3%-5% or more.
Good post - this is exactly the core of the problem. While they fumble to rearrange the basket to keep inflation numbers seemingly "low" it doesn't really matter if it's "only" 2%-3% per year, if wages don't keep up that's fucking brutal. And if you take the everyday essentials inflation index, the yearly avg. inflation is more like 3%-5% or more.
But to come up with a solution, you have to understand the problem. The US is creating plenty of wealth--that's not the issue. The problem is that is being distributed poorly--and that's why we have such high disparity.
Fix that problem and median wages will outpace inflation.
Good post - this is exactly the core of the problem. While they fumble to rearrange the basket to keep inflation numbers seemingly "low" it doesn't really matter if it's "only" 2%-3% per year, if wages don't keep up that's fucking brutal. And if you take the everyday essentials inflation index, the yearly avg. inflation is more like 3%-5% or more.
But to come up with a solution, you have to understand the problem. The US is creating plenty of wealth--that's not the issue. The problem is that is being distributed poorly--and that's why we have such high disparity.
Fix that problem and median wages will outpace inflation.
And what do you propose?
This is what i don't get about these Keynesians. How can you call something a recovery when it requires you to take on unsustainable debt?
There's nothing unsustainable about our debt.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=u7J
shows it is topping out in GDP terms, and not counting Fed holdings, it's actually 0.6 not 0.7.
That's twice the previous ratio, which means interest rates have to be half or less what they were 10 years ago for the debt burden to be 'sustainable'.
And that's what they are. Welcome to the Japan trap!
The core problem is the rich have all the money in the economy now.
The top 1% has 20% of all income. The top 5% has 33%. The top 10% has almost 50%.
To fix our economy, we have to fix this asymmetry.
Everything else is noise.
What do you propose?
Raise taxes more on the 1% and tax-dodging corporations first and foremost.
First, the top 10% tax burden should rise from 19% to 21%, that'd give us ~$100B/yr to pay off the SSTF, 2015-2035.
Instead of mucking around with the minimum wage, cut to the chase and raise taxes on corporations $500B/yr
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP/
knocking them back to 2011 after-tax profit levels (oh noes!!)
Take $400B/yr and employ 4 million people at $50,000 per to build 1.6 million new homes a year until there are more homes than people wanting to move in.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USCONS
Housing costs are killing us here.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CUUR0000SEHA
As is our $2T/yr health care system, or lack thereof.
And our $1T/yr natsec state. Money and wealth flushed down the toilet there.
Problem is every one of these fixes directly threatens very, very powerful (i.e. monied) interests. So nothing gets fixed, and the bullshit level in this country rises and rises.
Poor people aren't the problem here. Rich people are. Maybe the GOP will start understanding this, maybe not. Conservatives of course have long ago allied themselves with the interests of the rich.
But shit's getting out of hand, man. 12 million people are essentially out of work now.
As for inflation:
corn prices are up 25% not 170%, the commodity bubble crashed apparently.
That's twice the previous ratio, which means interest rates have to be half or less what they were 10 years ago for the debt burden to be 'sustainable'.
Eventually the interest rates will have to rise as the debt load gets bigger and bigger. the Fed can't buy up all the treasuries.
Raise taxes more on the 1% and tax-dodging corporations first and foremost.
First, the top 10% tax burden should rise from 19% to 21%, that'd give us ~$100B/yr to pay off the SSTF, 2015-2035.
That's not going to work, the rich will just move their money else where to avoid taxes and if you increase the taxes on corporations, they're just going to pass it down on their workers and consumers causing demand to shrink then profits but guess what the workforce will shrink as well. We'll see people get laid off or work less hours and we're back to square one except the U.S. will have even a smaller tax base.
Housing costs are killing us here.
that's due to the FED and government.
Eventually the interest rates will have to rise as the debt load gets bigger and bigger
dogmatic assertion not fact.
the Fed can't buy up all the treasuries.
they can increase the money supply, penalizing all money-good holdings.
That's not going to work, the rich will just move their money else where to avoid taxes
another dogmatic assertion not fact.
They can move their money wherever they want. We'll just print more.
The important thing is the flows from productive enterprise, getting people back to work and these people getting fairly paid for the value they add to the economy, and them also keeping more of their income from the rentiers in our economy, in health, housing, energy, police-state, etc.
that's due to the FED and government.
yeay, another dogmatic assertion. Talking with Austrians is like talking to a fucking wall.
This is no longer a capital-constrained economy. If the 1% want to sell up and sail on to greener pastures, they can go right on ahead. We don't need their capital. What we need is honest people making honest money again.
The Romney class has destroyed this country.
That's not going to work, the rich will just move their money else where to avoid taxes
LOL, wtf you thinkt eh rich have been doing as of late?
LOL, wtf you thinkt eh rich have been doing as of late?
Getting Congress to dance to their tune.
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/effective_rates_0.pdf
You're just to ignorant to know wtf is wrong with the economy.
you've run out of light, and heat, and reduced to emitting smoke now.
Good job moving down to the bottom rung of argument, too.
it doesn't really matter if it's "only" 2%-3% per year, if wages don't keep up that's fucking brutal.
in the end, the inflation will stop if wages fail to keep up. Prices simply cannot go up if wages (and/or consumer debt) doesn't go up with them.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=u8A
shows our big-two outgoes -- housing and healthcare -- are over 50% of incomes now.
should other sectors of the economy go up, some others will face headwinds and might even go down.
the sectors with the biggest economic rents -- housing and health care -- are also the ones where government has a large ability to intervene, with both supply side solutions and sheer price control attempts.
Capital is not some scarce commodity like it was in the hard-money pre-industrial 19th century. The Fed has pushed $3.2T into the economy since 2008:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=u8E
and there's nothing stopping them adding another $4T this decade.
Capacity utilization:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCU
is still at what was recessionary levels in the 1970s, so we don't have a supply-side issue, we simply have consumers that are essentially self-liquidated now.
Inflation is not some homogenous miasma, it is simply consumers bidding up the cost of goods, since all goods are allocated on the bid.
No bidding power, no inflation.
Problem is we've also distributed trillions of USD into the global economy via our immense trade deficits 1990-now, promissory notes that we'll give the bearers that dollar-denominated wealth in return.
Exports are very inflationary, and I do fear China et al buying up our food production this century, leaving us with less to eat and more dollars to chase up prices.
But, again, the long poles in the inflationary tent are housing and health care. Solve these issues -- cut the rents -- and we'll have more of our incomes available for other life necessities.
Unfortunately, like I said above, the housing and health care cartels are very powerful interests. Even in California the Dems have yet to go toe-to-toe with the Howard Jarvis people, even though the latter attacks the democratic coalition regularly.
And what do you propose?
Highly progressive taxation, inheritance tax, increase capital gains taxes--that would be a good start.
Whaa, whaa, whaa........
I'm not crying--I'm doing fine. I just want to point out what the problems are so if others want to discuss solutions, we have a common baseline.
If/when you want to have an adult discussion, let me know.
Yes a game of Whack a Mole. It is interesting how the memes are propagated, and the ignorance of critical thinking.
Please enlighten me then--how am I incorrect?
1. Do you disagree that the reason median wages are lagging inflation is because all the wealth is going to the top? Keep in mind I can very easily prove this to be the case.
2. Do you think the US economy is capital constrained? Keep in mind interest rates remain incredibly low.
Let's start with those two questions.
that would be a good start.
treating the symptoms and punishing the many (rich) for the sins of the few (rich).
taxing corporate profits more and capital gains not at all would be OK with me, too.
conservatives argue as if
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP/
does not currently exist (never seen them try to defend it at least)
but without fixing the supply shortage of housing and healthcare, we're really chasing our tails here. The end-user cost of a worthwhile higher education is also an issue now, too.
what we need is the nordic socialism without the nordic mortgage debt leverage. Unfortunately, the NO/SE/DK sphere is only 20M people, half Swedes, this scale is almost a toy economy compared to ours ($1.3T in total GDP, the combined GDPs of Ohio, NJ, and Georgia).
(man, Norway has the same GDP as Sweden with half the population, guess with their oil they can afford to run a weaker currency regime)
Keep in mind I can very easily prove this to be the case.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GINIALLRH
done in one
moving away from fiscal stuff, socially:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/health/daily/051606/teensex.html
lot easier to run a welfare state if the teen pregnancy rate is 30% ours, and 2/3 of teen pregnancies end in abortion, twice our termination rate.
We're going to have 100M more people by 2050, Sweden, maybe 1M.
Wish I'd studied Swedish in college instead of Japanese, LOL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zvv2l_P_SRI&list=UUmkzxLsMxufAK_UoPXCX8LQ
You cry about wealth disparity in almost every thread.... Apparently you aren't doing so well or you wouldn't be harping on it all the time....
Really? Why is it that Gates and Buffet complain about disparity then?
This is the problem with many conservatives--they care only about themselves so that can't believe that others don't share their selfish outlook...
This is the problem with many conservatives
note his tactic of avoiding the top end of the pyramid and shifting the thread to the ad-hom.
It's just diversion, the tactics of bullshitters and disrupters.
2004
Gold = 526
Oil = 51
Milk 16.04
Corn = 2.47
Soybeans = 7.56
Cattle = 89.67
Coal = 81.60
Wage = 35,648
Wage/wk = 6852012
Gold = 1,638
Oil = 95
Milk = 20.01
Corn = 6.67
Soybeans = 13.95
Cattle = 127.58
Coal = 182.48
Wage = 44,321
Wage/wk = 8528 - Yr Percentage Change
Gold - 211% Increase
Oil - 85% Increase
Milk - 25% Increase
Corn - 170% Increase
Soybeans - 84% Increase
Cattle - 42% Increase
Coal - 123% Increase
Wages/Yr - 24% Increase
Wages/Wk - 24% IncreaseEvery Item I've listed in the 8 year period (except for the price of milk) has vastly outpaced the rate of wages
Well said. The US malinvestment on housing loan, that sent housing soaring 2X -3X since 1997 and the signing of the CRA has likely caused false valuation of other commodities. We should enact fiscal policies that are moral, such as a basic goal for saving and frugality. The CRA (even though it may be true that its leakage into standard loans was not 100% correlated) caused a huge malinvestment in homes, and then the government grew in size (because so much was being made richly in real estate). Now that the bubble has since popped (and therein also reinflated by another malinvestment, QE1- QEn) the goverment stayed large and expensive, more $$ is spent on salaries than infrastructure, and the cost of commodities and disposable goods are trapped in a correlated manner with high housing.
Thus, the discussions on what the fed does next and how each path is perilous is true.
I think you have that wrong... The conservatives want the government out of the way so they can take care of themselves
Nope, I have it correct. The conservatives want the government out of the way so they can exploit the less fortunate.
Call it Crazy says
I guess you consider conservatives "selfish" because they want to care only about themselves and not "share" their successes with the rest of the country who won't become self-sufficient....
You almost have that correct. Replace "won't" with "can't" and you're getting closer. It's hard to be self sufficient when there are no jobs available and/or the jobs are part time at minimum wage with no benefits.
Which is why you cry wealth disparity all the time so the nanny state can come change your diapers and take care of you...
Again--I'm doing fine. You know where Westfield is I think. Do you think I'm on welfare living here?
It's hard to be self sufficient when there are no jobs available and/or the jobs are part time at minimum wage with no benefits.
alternatively, it's easy being 'self-sufficient' when you have legal title to millions of dollars worth of existing productive capital and/or land.
Especially land. The conservatives of the midwest with their 1500+ acre farms (given away for essentially free back in the 19th century) crack me up. Yeah, if every household could have 1500 productive acres, we wouldn't need gummint so much. Too bad we only have 400M acres of productive cropland, and ~100M households, that's 4 acres per household -- only 1 out of 400 households can have that 1500+ acre freehold to be self-sufficient.
Not that these rural conservatives can't get by without government, they're on the dole as bad as anyone, really.
Not that these rural conservatives can't get by without government, they're on the dole as bad as anyone, really.
That's a fact. It amazes me how easily they have been brainwashed...
It amazes me how easily they have been brainwashed.
nah, 'got mine fuck you' explains a lot. People in large groups, where divisions become apparent, become nasty pieces of work.
The mix of oligarchic facism -- the traditional GOP moneybags, like those behind the alleged plot to get rid of FDR in 1933
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot
plus Old South corn pone racism, Midwest rural conservatism, end-timer Christian fundamentalism (20-30% of the population right there), anti-government survivalist nutballs . . . the rightwing coalition is one piece of work.
I'll be staying in the (west coast) blue areas from now on, and if that fails, it's off to Japan.
Though maybe Maui would be OK for me. Having monthly access at least to a real Costco would be nice.
That's a fact. It amazes me how easily they have been brainwashed...
I love how you guys just seem to throw around facts when 95% of the time they're just total BS.
http://www.paulgraham.com/cornpone.html
is an interesting read, something I knew existed but hadn't actually read yet.
Twain was a smart, smart man.
I love how you guys just seem to throw around facts when 95% of the time they're just total BS.
Percentage of "total BS" refuted by you in this thread: 0%.
Move up the pyramid, good sir.
2. Do you think the US economy is capital constrained? Keep in mind interest rates remain incredibly low.
Absolutely! This is what you and Bill don't seem to understand. You can bring up that record "profits" graph for the umpteenth time, but this is majorly the result of leveraged debt. Companies "take advantage" of cheap interest, take on debt, sell their own bonds (woo-hoo!) etc. Truth is this country is continuing to build on debt leverage and those record profits don't mean shit when the next crash comes and the banks start calling in their revolving credit facilities on a massive scale to once again try and stay solvent. Then leveraged AKA "record profit" companies will start folding left and right again and you will cry for the next bailout. Same goes for "private wealth. There is no massive wealth, esp. not compared to the massive debt. Most of that wealth depends on asset valuation and can vaporize within weeks if not days, nothing of that is substantial. And any of that wealth that is tangible is always one step from being moved abroad or stashed away in foreign bank accounts. Don't be fools. The US is VERY capital constrained, it's just flush with fiat credit which is not the same ;)
but this is majorly the result of leveraged debt
unsupported assertion. and even if true (it's not) corporate profits should be taxed more anyway.
There is no massive wealth, esp. not compared to the massive debt
Actually the massive wealth -- the 1%'s -- is lent out to the massive debtors -- the middle quintiles.
In 2010 the top 1% had 40% of the net worth, the bottom 80% 5%.
http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html
Top 1% owes 6% of the debt, while the bottom 90% owes 70%.
Don't be fools. The US is VERY capital constrained
I think we're talking past each other, LOL.
By capital I mean the ability to pay for goods and services required while creating new wealth.
This can be private credit facilities or outright printing by the Fed given to enterprises via the Treasury.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCSRESNW
shows there's $2.5T sitting unused at the Fed earning 0.25% or whatever. And the Fed itself could push $25T into this economy if it wanted to get everyone back to work (think Solyndra x 50,000 LOL)
Might have to, too, given how fucked our politics are.
The parasitical rich you defend here can flee with suitcases of gold, but they can't flee with the US's cropland, physical plant, built infrastructure, natural resources, or workforce, and that's the true wealth of this and any nation.
Here's hoping they fuck off to Dubai or whatever sooner rather than later, too.
in the end, the inflation will stop if wages fail to keep up. Prices simply cannot go up if wages (and/or consumer debt) doesn't go up with them.
That's nonsense. This certainly can happen when productivity does not increase. We are in a global economy. Look for Argentina as a recent example.
2. Do you think the US economy is capital constrained? Keep in mind interest rates remain incredibly low.
Absolutely! This is what you and Bill don't seem to understand. You can bring up that record "profits" graph for the umpteenth time, but this is majorly the result of leveraged debt. Companies "take advantage" of cheap interest, take on debt, sell their own bonds (woo-hoo!) etc.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/04/cash-cow-of-50-largest-us-companies-who.html
(think Solyndra x 50,000 LOL)
I have a better idea than solyndra. Lets just pay people to watch porn. According to you, that would be a great economic development.
According to you, that would be a great economic development.
nope, if I thought that I wouldn't decry our $1T waste of natsec spending.
What I want is actual wealth-accretion, capital formation for the Keynesian BS we've got to do because we're too chickenshit to tax the powers-that-be marginally more.
New homes with new appliances. New freeways. New trains. New CNG-powered buses. New PV panels for solar roofs across the nation. Nuke plants. A four lane tunnel through the Sierras. You name it, I want it built this decade and next.
Not just the $3.2T the Fed funneled to TBTF. That didn't work, but $3.2T divided by $100,000 would have paid for 4 million jobs for 8 years, half the actual recovery that we've seen:
This certainly can happen when productivity does not increase.
that's just it though, we have 12M people now sitting home unemployed.
are there not factories for these people?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP
2M construction jobs lost:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USCONS
Information employment levels back to the early 1990s:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO
we're not fucking Argentina, we're the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
We put a dozen men on the moon FFS.
We are in a global economy
That can be better integrated. Neoliberal globalism has screwed us pretty bad -- Perot was entirely correct in 1992.
Free trade with trade deficits is what has screwed us. We're $4.2T in the hole already, that's all the money from our paycheck economy we've lost overseas.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/intinvnewsrelease.htm
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