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Barring the Fed balance sheet, government debt, home prices, stock market and student loan debt, a lot metrics going down hill.
Speaking of which, all of you should see the documentary, I was at recent conference with the Producer of "Money for Nothing" it's a documentary about the Federal Reserve and its impact on the economy
Here is the trailer, if you haven't seen it Gary you will like, it's a bit basic but in a great format
http://moneyfornothingthemovie.org/trailer/
Documentary website
http://moneyfornothingthemovie.org/
Watched it. Great video.
Watched it. Great video.
It's a nice documentary and a good timeline of economic history with current and previous Federal Reserve members. The producer/director and I hit it off when he heard my interview on Bloomberg arguing Bernanke poor QE velocity thesis
Watched it. Great video.
It's a nice documentary and a good timeline of economic history with current and previous Federal Reserve members. The producer/director and I hit it off when he heard my interview on Bloomberg arguing Bernanke poor QE velocity thesis
Definitely a must watch for anyone who is trying to figure out what is going on in the market today.
What is your take on the above chart?
It shows the correlation of crony Fed purchases (MBS etc.) and rising house prices (LA in this instance) with brutal clarity. Case closed. Real median income has been dropping, party's over.
What is your take on the above chart?
California has had a massive rise in home prices since April 2012. One item to remember is that using mix sale data a lot upper homes are selling now and not a lot of low end homes to the market. So the people who have cash, strong incomes and assets and buying it and the lower end home aren't selling as much. So, the price inflation is rampant.
trong incomes and assets and buying it and the lower end home aren't selling as much.
Are you saying, rich are getting richer and poor are getting poorer?
Are you saying, rich are getting richer and poor are getting poorer?
In every economic cycle that goes positive the rich will get richer because they own the assets and they usually own them debt free, while others have to take on debt which leaves a massive gap. If they do own equities they benefit from that. However, the gap will always rise for the rich and even richest of the 1% even. Professor Sufi from University of Chicago Booth asked me to come to go to his Housing conference in LA last year, we kind of see eye to eye on the wealth factor model and we both agree in this cycle it's going to be less for the lower end class
http://houseofdebt.org/2014/03/29/measuring-wealth-inequality.html
.."TOAST"
limits to this expansion. This a big reason why we don't see top line revenue growth from the business in America
.."TOAST"
limits to this expansion. This a big reason why we don't see top line revenue growth from the business in America
Damn! Coming up for air or going down for the third time?
If any of you like economic charts updated daily my facebook page has almost every economic data updated on the wall with other charts as well.
We got back all the jobs loss on the private sector side from the Great Recession, but........ #DTI #LTI even with the 10 year at 2.76% and ZIRP in play, it's a different cycle for sure and capacity consumption isn't a strong as many as thought. Hence why we don't have top line revenue growth and CAP X spending is light
Housing market, tech stocks and first time home buyers?
Housing market
Exisiting home sales most likely will end the year between 4.9-5 million so flat market would be the best case but slightly negative most likely
New home sales will likely be up 8-12% in total sales
First time home buyers will be soft this year 26-30% of the market place which is very low on historical standards
Tech stocks are getting spanked, stock market will be ok Up 3-7% this year because ZIRP is in play and the 10 year note is still very low to help demand.
Thank you. I really appreciate your input; always intelligent and practical.
>
As you can see here, we clearly overbuilt for housing and the even new home sales and starts got impacted when housing inflation rose on both fronts
Take all affordability indexes the media and financial companies like Zillow and the NAR promote with a grain of salt because they thesis is based on the fact that everyone has a 20% down payment. Comical with this cycle I know .... and yet they never add an * to their metrics
Hence rental nation, if this much can't create liquidity through liquid assets
Mind that census always counts delinquent homeowners as homeowners, so with 3 million loan still in delinquency and many in California still, these numbers need to have an * to it because it's slightly worse
Come on, Logan, gives some hint on upcoming inventory situation!
Logan, good graph, but I have yet to see that inventory here in North OC.
North OC.
Lower end market would be lighter than the upper end areas in California in general. More transaction are higher end homes rather than lower end homes.
Lower end market would be lighter than the upper end areas in California in general. More transaction are higher end homes rather than lower end homes.
That simply amazes me. I can't think of logical explanation. It seems as though investors would be more interested in those low end market for rental purposes and high end would be move up or first time live-in buyers. Confused.
That simply amazes me
What I see once the Robo signing settlement was signed and California homeowners act law was put into motion the process of putting lower end homes into the market was simply just delayed because there is now a legal process on trying to make a loan modification work for these type of homeowners
there is now a legal process on trying to make a loan modification work for these type of homeowners
Won't it apply to both low and high end?
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