patrick.net

X-Man,

Don't be too hard on Baybear, I too have been seeing first-hand evidence of low vacancy rates, high demand and rising rents in my area (SGV / L.A.). It's no illusion --the supply is much tighter than normal, while demand is up.

The wife and I are moving into a new place in October and got picked out of a dozen applicants --several of whom were there the day we did the open house. We were picked primarily due to excellent credit rating & superb references from our old landlord (12+ years). I guess sometimes a good credit rating CAN help after all --especially when you're a JBR.

Now whether or not this is permanent or short-term phenomenon is another story. My guess is the latter. CA is on track for a housing bubble-triggered recession starting no later than summer of next year. Check out the excellent research and charts over at Calculated Risk, The Big Picture & Piggington if you'd like some hard data. There's no "if" about it --the housing ATM is shutting down, and the only question is WHEN we go into full blown recession and mass layoffs.

Once we're in recession, landlords will have only fond memories of the days of 97%+ occupancy rates, when they could demand 10% rent hikes, renters with AAA credit and probably get both.

Hmmm Senor HARM, I guess from my vantage point in asspack $anta Barbara, the rents are already so high that any further increase just isn't likely to happen.

To me ready reports from the good folks in the realtwhore section spouting off meaningless stats about rents increases is just more hyperbole to ignore.

I'm tired of the fear mongering.

I’m tired of the fear mongering.

Me too, however, having been "out there" and seen what our hard-earned JBR money gets us (not much), I believe the high-occupancy statistics are true. Even so, I agree that quotes like this one are complete horseshit:

"Rent giveaways are still quite widespread there. But at some point, property owners are going to realize that rents are way, way below the appropriate levels," Willett says.

Uh huh.... rents here (at 50%+ net take-home pay for most wage earners) are not HIGH ENOUGH, while house prices are are "just right".

FUD

What would a psychic say to a FB?

Psychic does reading, gets scared look on face, gives money back to FB and says I've never done this before but you will need this money a lot more than me.

“Rent giveaways are still quite widespread there. But at some point, property owners are going to realize that rents are way, way below the appropriate levels,” Willett says.

That's the part that got me too. Hmm, I pay 6K per month but I only get 2K per month in rent, I can't flip it. Now Mr. SuperSaavySpecuvestors gets to thinking, "I know, I'll raise the rent from 2 to 6.5K a month"

Sure you will. Don't see it happening. Housing in $B is agrubly the most expensive anywhere, yet I am not seeing the explosion of rents. The "owners" have a cap to what the can charge, and I believe it's called the market. People are already a$$packed too much, a 2x rent increase? Then it's time to move.

And HARM I only pay 42% of my take home on rent. ahahahahhahahahahha,.

But hey, that still leaves 58% unaccounted for. Shit, see, rents are skyrocketing, I can afford to pay another 58%.

But hey, that still leaves 58% unaccounted for. Shit, see, rents are skyrocketing, I can afford to pay another 58%.

How many FBs spend more than 200% of their take-home pay on PITI?

only pay 42% of my take home on rent

Perhaps you could evict the pets (non-paying tenants) and sublet that "bonus room" in the back to an H1-B worker? That's putting your rental to work for you. :-)

Perhaps you could evict the pets (non-paying tenants) and sublet that “bonus room” in the back to an H1-B worker? That’s putting your rental to work for you.

Dude, I am so ahead of the curve, we have an Indian family living there right now! I charged them $2500/month, and get this, NO BATHROOM! It's ok with the exception of the constant curry smell.

We should not be too hard on the mortgage/real-estate industry. They should not be blamed. They simply supply what is demanded.

The housing bubble should not become a blame game. It is a natural product of human greed and fear. We are merely observers.

"We should not be too hard on the mortgage/real-estate industry. They should not be blamed. They simply supply what is demanded."

Hardly. If mortgage brokers scrutinized borrowers for creditworthiness and fully informed the borrowers of the risks of being upside down or a rising interest environment, then there would be less demand.

If mortgage brokers scrutinized borrowers for creditworthiness and fully informed the borrowers of the risks of being upside down or a rising interest environment, then there would be less demand.

If buyers evaluated the true affordability of housing and did homework about the risks of future price/rate movement, then there would be less supply.

Absolutely… Or write mortgages to people who clearly don’t make enough money to pay them. I am suprised that “No-Doc” mortgages are even marketable to the MBS market. Even realtors refer to them as “Liar Loans” to their clients.

This is just a case of people with more information exploiting those with less information. Is it wrong?

I am not an apologist for anyone.

We should not be too hard on the mortgage/real-estate industry. They should not be blamed. They simply supply what is demanded.

The housing bubble should not become a blame game. It is a natural product of human greed and fear. We are merely observers.

Sorry, Peter P, but I cannot adopt such a fatalistic, laissez-faire attitude to the largest credit/asset bubble of our generation, and probably the largest of multiple generations.

This bubble was no accident. It was ENGINEERED by short-sighted greedy politicians and the special interests who own them lock stock 'n barrel. There was nothing INEVITABLE about it. It could have been prevented --or at least mitigated-- at multiple turning points.

--In 1997, Congress & Pres. Clinton could have said "no" to the 24-month RE capital gains-exemption club.
--They could have kept the exemption restricted only to one's primary/occupied residence and left it as "one-time" in your life only.
--They could have left the 1031 exchange "as is" (difficult to qualify for).
--In 2000, the Fed could have left rates where they were (or at least not slashed them as low as they did for as long as they did).
--The Fed could also have set lender minimum reserve and loan qualifying guidelines to prevent neg-ams and 100% financed I/Os from becoming the new lending paradigm.
--The GSEs could have been fully privatized and de-coupled from taxpayer "implicit bailout guarantee". Or, at the very least, their portfolios could have been greatly reduced/restricted from current mammoth proportions.
--Local government (and idiot voters) could have rejected NIMBY/NURB/SMUG anti-supply measures and tougher immigration policies decades ago. Instead we get rent "control" laws, "just cause we can" developer fees in excess of $100K per housing unit and Prop. 13.

"This is just a case of people with more information exploiting those with less information. Is it wrong?"

Yeah, that's why there are laws requiring informed consent and laws that explicitly forbids too much leveraging.

Arbitraging with previously undiscovered information is one thing, but willful concealment or misrepresentation of information is fraud.

insert: "demanded" before "tougher immigration policies" above

I just love the "rent thru the roof" fear mongering as the FB realize that they can't flip and run with 200K. The beautiful part is when these chumps try to rent their $hitboxes out for their monthly nut.

Here's a tip, when renting a house check the address in Zillow, if bought less than two years ago, pass. The owner of my pathetic rental bought it in '76, don't think he's in any hurry to jack the rent.

This bubble was no accident. It was ENGINEERED by short-sighted greedy politicians and the special interests who own them lock stock ‘n barrel. There was nothing INEVITABLE about it. It could have been prevented –or at least mitigated– at multiple turning points.

It is preventable only if people (buyers, lenders, politicians) can overlook their self-interests at least for a moment.

I am actually very depressed over human greed. :(

@Peter P,

Ok you got me. Maybe it was inevitable after all. ;-)

Peter P, regarding the blog party, we might be having fish, any chance of having you eat with you hands tied behind your back using only a pair of chop sticks in you mouth?

:)

[rant on]

Attention fellow homo sapiens:

Stop being so damned greedy, selfish, ignorant, fearful, lazy, self-indulgent, horny, myopic, arrogant, intolerant, fanatical and tribal/cliquish. Stop accepting what the MSM and so-called industry "experts" tell you at face value and go do some cursory research before you make the largest financial commitment (and possibly mistake) of your entire life. And --most importantly-- stop expecting the government to bail out your stupid ass for your own bad decisions.

Attention Boomers & SilentGens (nice Un-Boomers excluded):

Stop expecting the world to perpetually reward you for having been born during an unprecedented period of technological progress and prosperity. Face it: you were born "lucky". This was not due to your "superior" genes, or divine intervention --it's luck plain and simple. Stop expecting the rest of the world top carry your lazy f@cking ass to your (richly appointed) grave in the style to which you've become accustomed. No, I do NOT care to pay my taxes PLUS yours AND your maid/nanny/gardener's AND finance your early retirement as well, while I eat top ramen and share a room with 9 day-laborers.

[/end rant]

Peter P, regarding the blog party, we might be having fish, any chance of having you eat with you hands tied behind your back using only a pair of chop sticks in you mouth?

Huh?

Wow! This thread really got going today after coming to a stall in the middle yesterday. I thought it was done when we were talking about the yen, $, cents, pounds, etc..

I thought it was done when we were talking about the yen, $, cents, pounds, etc..

Please feel free to start new threads whenever the old one is going nowhere.

This blog has lengthy threads on "huh?" and knives. So just about anything is possible

I do want to bring the recent discussions about Pluto and Xena into the mix. Will Pluto's demotion from planet status rescue (or doom) the housing bubble?

I do want to bring the recent discussions about Pluto and Xena into the mix. Will Pluto’s demotion from planet status rescue (or doom) the housing bubble?

Pluto is very important. It gives a lot of insight regarding generational movements. I do not care what astronomers say about it.

Sun and moon can be considered planets of Earth as well. It is a matter of perspective.

Sun and moon can be considered planets of Earth as well. It is a matter of perspective.

I thought they hung that Italian dude, what's his name, Cornholius for suggest just that.

Minimum wage in California got raised. Brace for inflation!

Any form of rent control or condo conversion regulation will only make future bubbles worse. A renter's union is not the answer.

There needs to be a formidable force against NIMBYists and anti-growth activists though. I think national builders can be that force in the future and they ought to be our friends.

Inflation - "Can you imagine, when a six pack of Budweiser costs 1,200 dollars?" - Vince Ricardo a/k/a Peter Falk in the IN-LAWS 1979. "Jees, that would be terrible" - Sheldon S. Kornpett, D.D.S. a/k/a Alan Arkin.

Sun and moon can be considered planets of Earth as well. It is a matter of perspective.

By what definition is the sun a "planet"? At best one might claim the Sun is a sibling of an incomplete binary system with Jupiter; but even that's a stretch.

By what definition is the sun a “planet”?

Sun revolves around Earth in relative terms. Since we are here on Earth, it is not unreasonable to see this as the center of the universe.

"Sun revolves around Earth in relative terms. Since we are here on Earth, it is not unreasonable to see this as the center of the universe."

But so does every other star. What makes the sun a planet and not a star?

Also, anyone here think the Earth is flat and all this talk of roundness is a conspiracy amongst cartographers and airline pilots?

And then there's all this gravity and electromagnetic fields non-sense. All our "electronic" devices are obvious run by magical invisible elves and powered by tiny hamsters on hamster wheels.

Sun revolves around Earth in relative terms. Since we are here on Earth, it is not unreasonable to see this as the center of the universe.

How does that change the gravitational interaction of the system? The fact still exists that the Earth and the 8-11 others, along with a whole lot of debris, are satellites subject to the sun, not vice versa.

And then there’s all this gravity and electromagnetic fields non-sense. All our “electronic” devices are obvious run by magical invisible elves and powered by tiny hamsters on hamster wheels.

I was arguing with my sister-in-law last week at dinner. She insists that humans "already have all diseases", and it is only a depressed constitution that allows them to get the best of you. I asked her if she had Ebola and Bird Flu, to which she just got annoyed at my lack of ability to "understand the obvious".

How does that change the gravitational interaction of the system? The fact still exists that the Earth and the 8-11 others, along with a whole lot of debris, are satellites subject to the sun, not vice versa.

You are thinking too much. :)

Don't you think it is better to see thing as they are presented to us? If Pluto are demoted, I suggest that we demote Uranus and Neptune as well because they are not visible to the naked eye.

Why don't we just go back to the "classic" system of personal and transpersonal planets: Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn.