patrick.net

“Crude is a sideshow here,” said Paul Hornsnell, head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London. “We were expecting gas to spike even before the storm hit because the situation was already very very tight — refineries were having trouble increasing production and inventories were (already) at a 20-month low — and that was last week.”

Gas did spike a lot.

http://tinyurl.com/75ema

Note the gap open near the right edge of the chart.

Just to clarify, the chart is for Natural Gas, not gasoline, which is equally crazy:

http://tinyurl.com/a22cx

"Just to clarify, the chart is for Natural Gas..."

hahahaha, thanks for pointing that out as well. I guess I'm getting tired. Thanks for the charts Peter. Now can you please point me to the direction of my bedroom.

Good night.

Pywiack, Thanks for the link about Valdez, Alaska. Very interesting.

NO is such a large city, I imagine any kind of relocation effort would be very difficult. And because it's one of those places that people have such strong emotional attachments to...I don't know. Common sense doesn't always prevail. I would not be surprised by the erection of even bigger levees. Maybe a lot of the population will just disperse elsewhere and stay, but even that would surprise me.

My home heating/cooling costs are already outrageous, the thought of it going up even more will have an impact on my spending, as will the rising cost of gas. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't think I'll stay there long.

Maybe I’m in the minority, but I don’t think I’ll stay there long.

Huh? Stay where?

Huh? Stay where?

I don't think I'll be in the minority for long. I think the rising cost of everything will force people to slow down on their spending.

Thanks for the housingmaps link, Surfer-X. Pardon my ignorance, but what does the color-coding represent (R-Y-G) ?

Sorry, Schmend Rick - I just called you Surfer-X. Must be the lack of coffee ;-)

BTW is it time for a post on whether Katrina will force a rate hike pause?

Yes, bring it on!

Or is that just too unknowable?

Whether it is unknowable is difficult to ascertain, if not unknowable itself. ;)

When is a price slump not a price slump, when its a correction.
Gotta love spin doctors.

Prices have fallen 5% in Sydney Oz, with next few years flat or falling.
Watch the exits for the scared investors.

tinyurl.com/b682v
(use bugmenot.com to get password for smh.com.au if necessary)

Back to lurking zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

BTW is it time for a post on whether Katrina will force a rate hike pause?

Yes, bring it on!

What? Bring on rate hike or a post?

I guess excess housing supply might now not be so extreme, but it will also mean that unemployment just surged.

What? Bring on rate hike or a post?

Both. Should we have a new thread on Katrina and rate hikes?

Katrina and rate hikes

Sounds like a pop band.

I think I called peter patrick once anyway.

No problem. Some thinks the "P" in "Peter P" means Patrick. It is not. The "P" stands for "Peter P".

Yes, now I feel a little bit of stack overflow.

Its the 30-year fixed mortgage

I don't get it, what's the catch here? Does it involve no money down, a cash-out refi, HELOC or some kinda IO-teaser rate? Why on earth would anyone want something like that!!

Loan originators will be thrilled if the fear of adjustables is put into the public and fixed becomes the hot must-have smart-money new-economy thing. They make money every time!

No risk to them regardless, but why not get $5k per go-round?

Do I win the “biggest bear of the day” award?

30% over 5 years? You're bearish, but not even close to Prat's 70% by... um... yesterday. :mrgreen:

I'm sure banks will continue to push "easy entry" ARM/IO/etc mortgages because they want to maintain volume/market share. Against all good reason, this might keep the bubble fueled for a while, and result in a harder correction?

(not "expert"--or investment advice)

Oh and I went for this super exotic loan, the 30 year fixed.

Sounds risky.

"until you wake up a bear one day."

Jack, so you're a bear now? Damn...who's going to keep us in line?

"You’re bearish, but not even close to Prat’s 70% by… um… yesterday."

That was *50%*.

I'm a bear, but it's not like I'm an *idiot* or something.

And note, my argument was that *either* there would be a 50% reduction in bay area housing prices OR that the storm of the century would destroy New Orleans by the end of august. Of course, I always felt the second clause was evident enough to omit making explicit.

chewbacca,
prat

Jack

My computer kept saying it couldn't connect with the remote computer last night, so I was essentially kicked off the night shift. And it's true the Katrina disaster is something that I spend several hours a night keeping up on. It's so tough to watch what's going on, but I almost feel I have to since so many are suffering. Does that make any sense? We've already donated to the disaster relief but that seems like such a small contribution. I wonder if donated blood would help? Sad sad sad.

I'd prefer not to get into the politics of the whole deal. Let's face it, there are a lot of agencies like FEMA who were also caught with their pants down. You can argue that since FEMA is Federal it's another Bush F*** up, but FEMA is in charge of disaster relief regardless of who sits in office. The fact is the scope of this disaster was overwhelmingly underestimated. I will say this though. Despite the massive problems that have been occuring, I'd still rather face a disaster like this in the U.S. because you know that there are at least resources that can be brought to bear and you know for sure that the media will be there to shine a spotlight on what's not being done right. I am also ashamed that so many American citizens are showing the worst side of human nature in the face of disaster. It's a disgrace.

Astrid

Here's the thing, you can find any number of blogs and sites that offer extremely slanted views of the same story and get a totally different outcome, which is why I stay away from politics. My father-in-law is the head of the Air National Guard in Ca, he's a Brigadier General and gets a lot of insight/info that you'll never see on the news. I've talked to many service men and women and other Generals who have been to Afganistan and Iraq and if it is such a cluster f*** they don't see it that way. Plus, they see the positives such as girls who are allowed to go to school for the first time in their lives and women who can actually go to work. That said, you are totally entitled to your view.
As far as natural disasters go, I am unaware of the administrations you mentioned having to deal with one on this scale. Not to mention Sept. 11 and a tsunami. I believe people will believe what they want to. I don't think there is any miracle that Bush can pull out of his ass that will sway any liberal to his side.

Wow, astrid. That link you provided (about Mike Brown director of FEMA) is a real eye-opener. Bush has made a number of (to put it politely) questionable appointments, but this may turn out to have been his worst.

SactoQt,

Point taken re: foreign policy, but how is providing adequate response to a major disaster at home a partisan issue? Not to metnion the fact that there might not even have been a disaster on this scale if the Army Corps of Engineer's levee funding hadn't recently been slashed: freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1473789/posts.

Here's the link to my father-in-laws credentials. I am very proud to be associated with him. He is an exceptional person of no little compassion who has dedicated most of his life to this country.
http://www.calguard.ca.gov/bio/briggenlucas.htm

There'a a good reason many of the citizens of New Orlean's are starting to call the flooded areas "Lake George".

That's just it Harm, I don't think it is a partisan issue and don't like seeing it made one. It's so easy to Monday morning quaterback this thing, but I didn't hear any major outcry before the disaster that the administration wasn't doing enough to prepare. This works both ways, congress didn't meet before hand when there was warning enough. No prominent Dems came out to say "we better get out there." Let's stop pointing fingers and get the thing handled already.

SactoQt, your father-in-laws credentials are impressive, and I would feel pride as well. I believe that pretty much everyone, whether they're pro-Bush or not support the troops wholeheartedly. Please do not fall into the trap of equating criticism of one particular administration and its policies with criticising the troops.

SactoQt, your father-in-laws credentials are impressive, and I would feel pride as well. I believe that pretty much everyone, whether they’re pro-Bush or not support the troops wholeheartedly. Please do not fall into the trap of equating criticism of one particular administration and its policies with criticising the troops.

Don't worry, I know the difference. I just have a view that's different because I have access to info that is not widely disseminated. It's hard not to feel that a lot of opinions are formed on only half the info availiable.

It’s so easy to Monday morning quaterback this thing, but I didn’t hear any major outcry before the disaster that the administration wasn’t doing enough to prepare. This works both ways, congress didn’t meet before hand when there was warning enough. No prominent Dems came out to say “we better get out there."

Well actully the NO Times-Picayune published a number of articles about just that in the months leading up to the flood, but as you say, where was Congress & the Dems on this? Occupied with other things I suppose --like brain dead people on feeding tubes, Janet Jackson't exposed tit, missing white women and gay people getting married.

I admit it, I don't get the NO times-Picayune. I saw an army engineer try to defend the lack of prep and it was a completely lame argument. They could and should have done better. I'm not a military advocate across the board, I just don't like to take extreme positions that refuse to listen to the other side, after all the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle.

SactoQt, I don't blame the military one bit for this disaster. If I had to assign blame at this point (and as you say, it's still too soon), I'd guess it was a combination of bad luck, bad policy decisions by civilian leadership and inadequate planning by FEMA and related agencies. Time will tell, I'm sure.

Astrid

I was once as passionate as you about the Dems but as time goes on you learn that your hero's are not as honest and forthright as you think and that the opponents are not as evil and incompetent as they seem. Time tempers all opinions through experience. I don't want to patronize so I'll leave it at that.

Harm

I don't blame the military either, it's just that the spokesperson for the army engineers was trying to argue after the fact that the preparations were adequate when they clearly weren't. It sounded as if he was more concerned with being right than addressing the real issue. I know firsthand that the military is a bureaucracy too and that politics can take the place of practicality at times. My father-in-law has lamented that fact from time to time.

Friends,

I haven’t been participating that much lately because I am concerned for a friend and his family in New Orleans. If any of you (or the lurkers) know Robert L. Warner Jr, sisters Helen and Sabrina or other members of their family, please post here for me or on any new topic. I check here regularly, and am checking all the lists that have been posted over the internet. If you’d rather not give me the information here, just let me know and we can communicate off this site.

Thanks all,

BayQT~

It looks like Rivermark is going through a phase of crazy sale - there are tons of brand new townhomes on sale, and some had price reduction for “quick sale”!

I'm not familiar with that dev., but I've heard of a dev in Sunnyvale on the site of an old nursery, something like 12/acre density--and still under construction. My guess: they missed their window of opportunity, and who would buy a hastily-built home?