patrick.net

CaptainShuddup says

Well how come no one was panicking in 1995 when the homeowner ship rate was only 64.8%?

I don't know that they weren't panicking but part of the answer is that the rate hadn't just been 69%. Right? Kind of like prices.

Maybe I've missed it, but none of these articles mentions how big the group of people might be who choose not to buy. There's always some reason like loans are too hard to get or whatever. I'm hoping I'm in a small group of people as that tends to suggest smarter decisions when it comes to finances.

I bought a house in 2010, does that make me foolish?

If anything, I'd like to think people aren't over extending them selves in hopes of finding a bigger Idiot. Flipping a house, requires more than just buying houses.

And there's a huge unknown variable, it's not if your house will sale, but when and for how much? And more importantly, will they be able to make the mortgage payments until then.

Then folks that did by their Dream house but bought more house beyond their means.
Didn't buy a house, they tried to buy a new life. One where they live in a nice house, and have a nice job that pays them a lot of money to live in a large house.

CaptainShuddup says

I bought a house in 2010, does that make me foolish?

No, there are lots of situations where buying a house makes sense. So far none of them are my situation.

FunTime says

It now stands at 64.8 percent, according to the U.S. Census, down from a high of over...

The remainder of the sentence:

...69 percent at the height of the last housing boom.

5% points is not a big deal. Considering unemployment rates, shift in demand (Millennials living at home or in urban areas, increase in population, XY preferring to rent...)

I've seen this story before, but the 64 and the 69 are so close, I don't think it says:

FunTime says

The homeownership society is clearly over

JH says

5% points is not a big deal.

Disagree. Only a small percentages of houses are sold in any given year. 5% is a large number relative to that.

JH says

5% points is not a big deal.

On what are you basing that idea? You realize, based on a population of 300,000,000, that's 15 million people right? Now multiply that by the median house price.

Viewed another way it's a 5/69 decrease or 7%. Would you like a 7% raise? Would you mind if your taxes went up 7%?

Doesn't increase in population make the percentage even more significant? Percent of a bigger number is a bigger number?

JH says

64 and the 69 are so close, I don't think it says

I agree the headline is sensational. I didn't write it.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

If you are gay

Why do they need to be gay? Because the gays always make the neighborhood nice and have more disposable income?

Call it Crazy says

corntrollio says

JH says

5% points is not a big deal.

Disagree. Only a small percentages of houses are sold in any given year. 5% is a large number relative to that.

FunTime says

On what are you basing that idea? You realize, based on a population of 300,000,000, that's 15 million people right?

That's a lot LESS homeowners... But, what you need to look at is the direction... If Americans are doing so well and making money, and we are in a wonderful recovery, why is the level of ownership back to 1995 levels??

*

*

Maybe the 5% have been visiting this site.

Call it Crazy says

That's a lot LESS homeowners... But, what you need to look at is the direction... If Americans are doing so well and making money, and we are in a wonderful recovery, why is the level of ownership back to 1995 levels??

Because it is a reversion to the post 1960 mean. And we have a long way down before we get to (pre) post-war boom numbers. The jump to 69% was a blip.

BTW, couldn't find a chart that included post-2009, but you know the story.

FunTime says

JH says

64 and the 69 are so close, I don't think it says

I agree the headline is sensational. I didn't write it.

Well, now, this is the headline:

Homeownership falls to 19-year low: Here's why

You made your title the first line of the story...which is sensational, yes. Especially considering that 60-65% rate was normal for over 30 years.

But it's funny that NBC will talk about increased home prices as a "recovery" and then run this story about homeownership society being over. As CiC pointed out, this is silly.

If I have a house in Chicago, rent a house in Bay area, the home ownership would drop, right?

JH says

Especially considering that 60-65% rate was normal for over 30 years.

Which suggests those are the extremes and thus the excitement about the number going toward one or the other. That is the significance of that five percent. A number moving only five percent doesn't mean it's not significant. Look at the interest rate number. What if that moves 1%? People freak.

hanera says

If I have a house in Chicago, rent a house in Bay area, the home ownership would drop, right?

Technically somebody owns both homes. I wonder how they do this calculation. Maybe it's just a fixed calc (like CPI) to convince us we need LOW interest rates forever.

FunTime says

What if that moves 1%? People freak.

Haha, right? Here is the headline for your 100 basis point increase: Interest rates skyrocket by 30%!!!! Buy now or be forever priced out!!!!

hanera says

If I have a house in Chicago, rent a house in Bay area, the home ownership would drop, right?

Yes. They are both investment properties.

There's still a 28 point spread on the side of ownership. I would not call this "clearly over."

JH says

You made your title the first line of the story...

I finally got your point about me getting to chose my own headline on Patrick.net. Got it. Yes, I'm in a mode right now where I'm realizing my attempts to very carefully and peacefully communicate cause confusion. So I'm resorting to words I don't like hoping they communicate more.

dublin hillz says

There's still a 28 point spread on the side of ownership. I would not call this "clearly over."

Yeah, that's one of the reasons I don't agree with the headline. Plus there's little that's "clear" about this subject. What's clear is that mortgages have been set up to extract more money from the masses, that's viewed as a good thing and is also driven by many leadership officials. I want to spend less of my money into the hands of people whose only value to society is the ability to scheme/scam ways to get more people to spend more money. Although I consider them very smart and society obviously values their trickiness by paying them vast sums of money. How many pieces of paper are signed before borrowing the money to buy a house? What multiple of your income is required? How much interest do you pay? How much above the purchase price of the home does the average buyer pay? Where are estimates of that? How much more does the average buyer pay than renter in terms of dollars spent on furniture, the every attractive additions, etc? I don't see that in any of the calculators except in "maintenance" and I don't think that's a careful accounting. Buying houses is great for America because it drives business!

FunTime says

Yes, I'm in a mode right now where I'm realizing my attempts to very carefully and peacefully communicate cause confusion.

Haha, the more exciting communication here is not usually the peaceful type. Your title probably made for more discussion than if you had used the actual title...so hey, it worked!

FunTime says

Yes, I'm in a mode right now where I'm realizing my attempts to very carefully and peacefully communicate cause confusion.

Haha, the more exciting communication here is not usually the peaceful type. Your title probably made for more discussion than if you had used the actual title...so hey, it worked!

FunTime says

I don't see that in any of the calculators

The calculators are all smoke and mirrors to convince unprepared people to jump in with their clothes on. And they are created by people like this (or dumber).

To translate that into the vernacular, the bank, JP Morgan, was running huge bets (tens of billions of dollars, what we might think of a golly gee gosh that’s a lot of money) in London. The way they were checking what they were doing was playing around in Excel. And not even in the Masters of the Universe style that we might hope, all integrated, automated and self-checking, but by cutting and pasting from one spreadsheet to another. And yes, they got one of the equations wrong as a result of which the bank lost several billion dollars (perhaps we might drop the gee here but it’s still golly gosh that’s a lot of money).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/02/13/microsofts-excel-might-be-the-most-dangerous-software-on-the-planet/

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

What ASSHOLE! owns a home? America has always been a home flippership society, anyways.

Lincoln was flipping log cabins when he wasn't fighting vampires.