patrick.net

marcus says

I just don't know. A lot of market behavior is related to human behavior. Programs can be programed to predict human behavior, but when the humans are removed, what do you have then ? IS it more predictable ? Less? I don't know.

Actually I think so far computers are changing the way things are done, and where the jobs are, but they have not caused massive unemployment. We are still relying massively on human labor at every levels. Even for repetitive physical tasks low wage labor in poor countries may be cheaper than robots.

The problem is real AI. We may well see rapid progress in terms of what AI can do, and such a technology would change the world radically.
This will not be a good news for most of mankind.
And I think it is coming.

Heraclitusstudent says

The problem is real AI. We may well see rapid progress in terms of what AI can do, and such a technology would change the world radically.

This will not be a good news for most of mankind.

And I think it is coming.

Yes, it's coming and it spells the doom, for white collar workers everywhere.

A big problem these days is that firms aren't hiring domestic scientists, engineers, etc., to perform the automation. They've outsourced that aspect, hiring people on the H-1B visa instead. More foreigners have been imported over the past decade to take tech jobs, than have tech jobs been created.

The situation is now so bad that even top grads from top schools can submit their resumes to firms that apparently are doing this sort of work, not even to receive the basic courtesy of a response. Large swaths of extremely talented people are going un-noticed, their skills going into a state of atrophy. Meanwhile, the lower-end, the government workers, seem to be doing incredibly well. As are the service sector workers.

Mark77 says

The situation is now so bad that even top grads from top schools can submit their resumes to firms that apparently are doing this sort of work, not even to receive the basic courtesy of a response.

The thing is that the owners and execs have devalued labor. Realize this, in the past, HR was called personnel dept, not human resources. Even the overall label, given to employees, is insulting and demeaning, like they're furniture and not people.

Now, with the world trying to garner science & engineering degrees, it's made it even easier for execs, to move work around, to accomplish their goals which is a certain amount of output with lower overhead.

The thing is that as long as we value business-y types, we will see never see a resurgence in American tech careers. Ppl like myself, who'd started in tech R&D, with a degree in applied chemistry/chemical engineering, will leave for B-school (a/o finance), patent law, or health care/medicine.

In fact, even within technology careers, ppl would rather become Oracle DBAs and system admins, managing data centers, than in programming and core R&D. And part of that is that it keeps 'em closer to management than tech, the idea being that R&D is the first thing which gets outsourced. A VP would still like his pet DBA, producing reports for him, and may not be comfortable, sending that job over to Asia, as he'd use that data for his personal career path.

"the development of information technologies and the automation of work"

that and the invention of intermodal cargo and global communication, both of which facilitating trade with cheap-labor / weak currency states like China, India, E Europe, and the Philippines.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Bm8

blue is working-age population, red is workers in mfg and information (right axis).

We've lost 6M -- 30% -- of our jobs in just these two sectors since 2000. This goes beyond technology and has more to do with trade policy.

NAFTA, MFN with China -- we've seen TRILLIONS being sucked out of the paycheck economy thanks to free trade (with trade deficits).

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NETEXP

Heraclitusstudent says

I think so far computers are changing the way things are done, and where the jobs are, but they have not caused massive unemployment.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO

Bellingham Bill says

This goes beyond technology and has more to do with trade policy.

The problem is that this is what execs want.

Think about it, all the clamoring for the govt to increase STEM workers is just a smoke screen to offshore more STEM work.

In the end, executives do not like headcount. In fact, one VP I remember, said a bold face lie, "We like headcount! We want to grow!". And then, a year later, half that company was let go and the non-sales, non-consulting roles were sent to Asia.

Rin says

In fact, even within technology careers, ppl would rather become Oracle DBAs and system admins, managing data centers, than in programming and core R&D.

I thought that was because being the DBA pays better.

One thing to consider is that China is teetering on implosion. This is a natural consequence of decades of mercantilism. All of that manufacturing is going to shift to other countries.

zzyzzx says

Rin says

In fact, even within technology careers, ppl would rather become Oracle DBAs and system admins, managing data centers, than in programming and core R&D.

I thought that was because being the DBA pays better.

Why do you think it pays better? It's the closest one can get to management, a.k.a. data center management, while still retaining a technical role. One doesn't need to go back to school to become a DBA. Afterwards, if one attends enough meetings with execs, they become a database manager. The shift in pay had occurred, during the mid-90s, as a result of this phenomena.

indigenous says

All of that manufacturing is going to shift to other countries.

Yeah, but that's it ... other countries, like Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, etc. The jobs seldom come back to America.

Rin says

Yeah, but that's it ... other countries, like Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, etc. The jobs seldom come back to America.

The fact is that the largest manufacturing country in the world by far is the US, there is a reason for that, we are good at it.

When a shopper goes shopping for turbines, heavy construction equipment, airplanes that will fly 100s of people, with six sigma performance, they look at value for their money.

The value is measured in unit cost. If the product is not six sigma it does not get considered. Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, etc. have a hard time making stuff to six sigma standards. Let alone at a lower unit cost.

That being said those trinkets that you see in Walmart are stuff the US was not competitive in because of labor cost. Thanks to Uncle Ben the dollar is worth less than it used to be. That means that some of that stuff might be made domestically.

Before you turn you nose up at this understand that manufacturing in the US is more and more automated. When the price of a robot is at 100k the payment is around 2k a month at which point you say what sort of worker will I get for 500 a week.

The economy grows in unexpected ways if the government doesn't get in the way. Which it has been big time for the last couple of decades thanks to Bush and Obama. We desperately need another Coolidge.

indigenous says

Before you turn you nose up at this understand that manufacturing in the US is more and more automated. When the price of a robot is at 100k the payment is around 2k a month at which point you say what sort of worker will I get for 500 a week.

Yes, there's both automation and lower domestic shipping costs. Net result, fewer workers and the profits role up to the executive suites.

indigenous says

Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, etc. have a hard time making stuff

Yes, they don't need to manufacture goods, not used in Asia itself by multinational corps, but they can maintain a global code base and probably with a higher level of efficiency than the body shops in South India.

In fact, India's reliance on the body shop mentality, instead of expert IT solutions, has made itself irrelevant, for the next IT wave. I think that India will go back to its 1980 level, when global corporate America finds alternatives in Southeast Asia.

They were a paper Bengal tiger.

Ted Kaczynski was right about technology. It isnt just a collection of small gadgets anymore, it is a holistic system when your oven needs to connect to the WiFi. Technology can never become less efficient or useful, which will eventually leave human labor obsolete.

Rin says

Yes, there's both automation and lower domestic shipping costs. Net result, fewer workers and the profits role up to the executive suites.

You act as if companies don't fail as well? How many corporations have been around for over 100 years?

Rin says

Yes, they don't need to manufacture goods, not used in Asia itself by multinational corps, but they can maintain a global code base and probably with a higher level of efficiency than the body shops in South India.

What?

Rin says

In fact, India's reliance on the body shop mentality, instead of expert IT solutions, has made itself irrelevant, for the next IT wave. I think that India will go back to its 1980 level, when global corporate America finds alternatives in Southeast Asia.

What?

India's biggest problem is there corrupt bureaucratic government, that and a piss poor job of training people.

epitaph says

which will eventually leave human labor obsolete.

Poppy Cock

indigenous says

Rin says

In fact, India's reliance on the body shop mentality, instead of expert IT solutions, has made itself irrelevant, for the next IT wave. I think that India will go back to its 1980 level, when global corporate America finds alternatives in Southeast Asia.

What?

India's biggest problem is there corrupt bureaucratic government, that and a piss poor job of training people

Regardless of cause/effect, corporations will slowly stop the IT offshoring to India for better destinations.

Rin says

Regardless of cause/effect, corporations will slowly stop the IT offshoring to India for better destinations.

I thought Libertarians were negative but you mutts take the cake.

indigenous says

You act as if companies don't fail as well? How many corporations have been around for over 100 years?

When a company fails, its assets get absorbed by private equity, spun out, and merged some some other company.

As for 100 year firms, we have Pratt, GE, DuPont, Westinghouse, State St, etc.

Rin says

As for 100 year firms, we have Pratt, GE, DuPont, Westinghouse, State St, etc.

what percentage is that?

yes the bankruptcy process, so what?

indigenous says

Rin says

As for 100 year firms, we have Pratt, GE, DuPont, Westinghouse, State St, etc.

what percentage is that?

yes the bankruptcy process, so what?

You asked if there were century old companies. Someone even put together a list ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_companies_in_the_United_States

As for percentages, who cares, when today's JP Morgan Chase was a merger of Manufacturer's Hanover, Chemical, Chase, Bank One, JPM, Bear, Wash Mutual, and so on. That's what, an 8 to 1 adsorption?

Rin says

Manufacturer's Hanover, Chemical

BTW, I used to know mid-level ppl at the above firms, prior to the merger.

Well, all of 'em were whacked but I'd bet that the redundant VPs above them were given nice exit packages.

Rin says

As for percentages, who cares

The point is that there is a very high mortality rate for Corporations.

You have drank so much kool aid that you decisions are so full of hate that they are irrational.

I have to be careful of that with government, very few are more negative than the libertarians. It will color your thinking if you are not careful.

Rin says

Then, something changed ... the development of information technologies and the automation of work.

You need to reread history and see everythings changes constantly.

Your whole thesis is proven wrong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-B9k6FXCPOc

Rin says

Millennials will be the 1st generation to see the end of work

Perhaps more like the first stupid generations because they keep
ignoring the past... all the accomplishments...

little snotty arrogant pricks more like it...

Rin says

hen a company fails, its assets get absorbed by private equity, spun out, and merged some some other company.

As for 100 year firms, we have Pratt, GE, DuPont, Westinghouse, State St, etc.

many just die out... with no outside interest, assets sold to public.
always interesting to go to SV liquidation sales/auctions.

indigenous says

The value is measured in unit cost. If the product is not six sigma it does not get considered. Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, etc. have a hard time making stuff to six sigma standards. Let alone at a lower unit cost.

very true and people keep missing this. In short no matter how cheap the labor costs, the spoilage is too high which gets factored into good units which
does not lower unit costs, but increases.

Bellingham Bill says

Heraclitusstudent says

I think so far computers are changing the way things are done, and where the jobs are, but they have not caused massive unemployment.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO

What is your point?
There was an internet bubble and y2k bug?

thomaswong.1986 says

Rin says

Then, something changed ... the development of information technologies and the automation of work.

You need to reread history and see everythings changes constantly.

Your whole thesis is proven wrong.

_https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-B9k6FXCPOc

Ok, I'd skimmed through that documentary and I don't see how that changes how corporate execs and owners, are changed by the fact that certain ppl are curious & have adherence to rituals? Workers need to earn money, to survive. Ppl, however, are dis-empowered, why do you think I'd advocated for a welfare state for scientists and engineers, independent of corporate or academic America.

indigenous says

You have drank so much kool aid that you decisions are so full of hate that they are irrational.

I have to be careful of that with government, very few are more negative than the libertarians. It will color your thinking if you are not careful.

I think that was my idea of the science/engineering sponsorship state, where S&Es will get a basic stipend, if they pass a series of S&E exams.

As far as funding it goes, I don't think an ordinary financial firm can make it happen, including the Gates/Buffet foundations. It'll have to be lobbied through the Dept of Defense, since those are the deep pockets in DC.

I don't expect much, however, from corporate America.

Rin says

I'd advocated for a welfare state for scientists and engineers, independent of corporate or academic America.

While otherwise I'm sure very smart? When it comes to economics you are illiterate. I mean you FAIL economics 101.

What is truly amazing to me is how complete propaganda permeates otherwise intelligent people.

Rin says

Ok, I'd skimmed through that documentary and I don't see how that changes how corporate execs and owners, are changed by the fact that certain ppl are curious & have adherence to rituals?

Changes is a constant in the western world.... its part of our culture.

Rin says

I think that was my idea of the science/engineering sponsorship state, where S&Es will get a basic stipend, if they pass a series of S&E exams.

And as the USSR showed.. such ideas have failed.

indigenous says

What is truly amazing to me is how complete propaganda permeates otherwise intelligent people.

I guess you really have not worked with executives in your career & thus, have bought into academic theories of pure Supply/Demand dynamics and other stuff without recognizing distortions at all levels, including political/monetary actions, geared towards the higher ups.

What I've observed is that the baseline worker bee, usually gets the shaft in the end, paying for a rentier society where they're at the bottom strata.

If you believe that the above will change on your lifetime, then I'd say that you're living in a Private Idaho.

thomaswong.1986 says

Rin says

I think that was my idea of the science/engineering sponsorship state, where S&Es will get a basic stipend, if they pass a series of S&E exams.

And as the USSR showed.. such ideas have failed.

The USSR had forced their scientists to pretend to do work & much of that work had to align with party ideologies. And outside of that, their only other option was to join the Red Army.

But yes, despite those piss poor conditions, Soviet scientists did in fact do a lot of good work in mathematics.

http://geomblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/soviet-style-mathematics.html

http://tinyurl.com/ob4chz6

Here, in my sponsorship, S&Es are free to do what they want. Plus, at $32K-$40K per annum, many will leave for a higher paying job, being a bean counter for corporate America. Yes, many will try to find a monied career out there. Realize this, S&Es, by nature, are intelligent persons and one can parlay a tech background into some business function out there, even if it's as dull as fixing unix batch scripts for accounting.

Here's that thread on the science sponsorship state

http://patrick.net/?p=1240106

Rin says

examination

Examination = degree. We already have such a system in the universities. No need for an additional 'examination'. Having said that, I don't agree with paying stipends or welfare to anyone, nevermind scientists. What I do have a problem with is immigration and economic policy that essentially places the careers of scientists and engineers in handcuffs with the glut of foreign labour and the anti-industrial policy thus induced.

Mark77 says

Rin says

examination

Examination = degree. We already have such a system in the universities. No need for an additional 'examination'. Having said that, I don't agree with paying stipends or welfare to anyone, nevermind scientists. What I do have a problem with is immigration and economic policy that essentially places the careers of scientists and engineers in handcuffs with the glut of foreign labour and the anti-industrial policy thus induced.

No degree, that's lining the pockets of university administrators. This is self-study.

This is to liberate the free thinkers from brain dead jobs in finance, like the one I have right now.

Let me re-type that thread here...

I think it's time that the horseshit about science and engineering careers comes to an end.

Corporations are offshoring R&D and the govt is limiting funding to key *pet* principal investigators in the academy (plus national labs). You know, the loudmouths who shout slogans like 'Nano' 'Nano', all day.

So here's my plan... we create a federally funded program, paid out of the defense budget and that's the science & engineering sponsorship society.

The idea is that by getting a particular score in a series of science & engineering exams, i.e. Organic Chemistry, Signals & Systems, Partial Differential Eqs, etc, one can get a stipend of $32K to $40K per year, to sit around and contemplate. The military will also provide some subsidized housing in a coastal area in the Carolinas, next to a base and thus, provide added security. Others, can either get their own place [ wherever they want ] or live with their parents.

Then, in order to maintain one's stipend, a new exam must be taken every two years. Thus, for a person who's let's say a biochemical engineer, he might take catalytic processes or mass transport phenomena, so that he keeps his stipend. Or, if he's more broad based, complex variables or structural biochemistry. Obviously, this means that during the year, each recipient will be doing a little bit of studying, in preparation for another exam.

The idea here is that we create a society of STEM folks, who're free thinkers and neither postdoc serfs of the academy nor the b*tches of corporate America's MBA-ologists.

New ideas and creative proposals will come out of the above program. And at the same time, this will keep a certain multi-generational talent of S&Es going, regardless of the whims of corporations and academic hacks.

Rin says

The idea is that by getting a particular score in a series of science & engineering exams,

I think enacting policy measures (ie: stopping the H-1B program, fixing economic policy) to encourage the private sector to engage such individuals is far more effective than concocting a minimal-compensation welfare program. After all, the people enrolled in such a hypothetical program would be in competition with 'paid' scientists. Eventually business would seek to unload all of its R&D onto the low-priced scientists, much like they do with the H-1B's today, and to a lesser extent, on the open source software community.