patrick.net

Yet despite all this talk of automation replacing human workers you can still walk into just about any pharmacy in America and have your prescription filled by a human staff. The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

New Renter says

The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

At the moment, heath care is not about tech but about licensing and regulation. The pharmacist is the legal intermediary between the customer and the Oxycontin. Thus, each pharmacy will have at least one PharmD there, at any time, for legal reasons.

Likewise, at a clinic, the day when a nurse or a PA can do 100% of an internal medicine doctor's job, with a handheld Watson MD tablet, the GP role will role down to exactly one physician, the one who'll rubberstamp each referral to a specialist or declare that a cold is a cold & send the guy home. Today, when you see your GP for 5-10 mins, in the future, it'll be 20 seconds over a telescreen. His only purpose is so that a clinic doesn't get shutdown for not having one generalist MD on staff.

Understood but the banking industry must have faced similar security issues in the 80s when ATMs were on the table.

A human pharmacist does not provide any added security, indeed less as a human can be robbed easier than a robot.

As to providing the right medication to a customer a pharmacist knows only what is faxed over by the prescribing physician. No human added value there.

USF already has a robot pharmacict so the legal issues may not be as insurmountable as all that.

New Renter says

Understood but the banking industry must have faced similar security issues in the 80s when ATMs were on the table.

Different strokes, it's not the actual security of protecting the Oxycontin from the junkies but the fact that there's an APA, who's given a pharmacist the gatekeeper status.

For the bank, their issue is more business than anything else. If ATMs were continually hacked then customers would stop signing up for ATM cards and would only conduct business at the counter with a Driver's License and a live teller.

New Renter says

USF already has a robot pharmacict so the legal issues may not be as insurmountable as all that.

Yes, but I believe that all university hospitals have a staff PharmD, just in case. You see, that's just the whole point. That single staff member covers the legal requirements, even if he doesn't have a real job.

New Renter says

Yet despite all this talk of automation replacing human workers you can still walk into just about any pharmacy in America and have your prescription filled by a human staff. The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

I don't see why you cannot have a robot doctor in some cases.
Show your face on camera, answer a few questions and get your prescription.

Strategist says

New Renter says

Yet despite all this talk of automation replacing human workers you can still walk into just about any pharmacy in America and have your prescription filled by a human staff. The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

I don't see why you cannot have a robot doctor in some cases.

Show your face on camera, answer a few questions and get your prescription.

For the most part, in terms of internal medicine, the physician's assistant has already co-opted that role. Thus, a $100K per year high end nurse person has already replaced a $180K/yr MD GP. It's only the fact that legally speaking, the MD needs to conclude the diagnosis, is why he's kept around as a generalist. In the future, all doctors will have to become specialists to keep their jobs.

Rin says

I don't see why you cannot have a robot doctor in some cases.


Show your face on camera, answer a few questions and get your prescription.

For the most part, in terms of internal medicine, the physician's assistant has already co-opted that role. Thus, a $100K per year high end nurse person has already replaced a $180K/yr MD GP. It's only the fact that legally speaking, the MD needs to conclude the diagnosis, is why he's kept around as a generalist. In the future, all doctors will have to become specialists to keep their jobs.

And if a doctor in India is giving me a prescription the cost would be really low. How much do doctors make there? Cannot be more then what a burger flipper makes in San Francisco.

Strategist says

And if a doctor in India is giving me a prescription the cost would be really low. How much do doctors make there? Cannot be more then what a burger flipper makes in San Francisco.

In order for a clinic to set this up, all they'll need to do is have a ship, some 15 miles off the coast of any US state, and they'll be in international waters. Then, they can practice medicine without being busted by the govt. Of course, if they bring the Rx drugs on-land, they may get busted for trafficking but that's another story.

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Changing technology has been with us ever since they invented the wheel. Workers in dying technologies will always be susceptible to being laid off, retraining and retirement. New generations come in and learn new skill and get jobs that never existed before.

Until now, most new technology were about doing faster and better things that were already done before. Planting food, extracting ore, producing metals, assembling stuff. The "new" jobs were evolutions of the old ones even if sometime radically changed.

At some point we will see technologies that simply don't require *any* humans. It's not even a question of speed. It will be an integrated self-maintaining machine from ore to recycling.

And the new technologies can think. Previous generations had dumb technology. Now we have Watson and it's ilk. This throws jobs that require human brain power and discretion onto the scrap heap. As AI evolves there won't be anything a human can do better than a computer. We are well on our way to this future and we have to figure out what we will do once no human or only a tiny minority of human artists are qualified to work. Humans have spent thousands of years primarily defining ourselves by our labor and our abilities to acquire resources and now we're on the loosing end of that proposition. I have no idea how this is going to end.

Rin says

Strategist says

And if a doctor in India is giving me a prescription the cost would be really low. How much do doctors make there? Cannot be more then what a burger flipper makes in San Francisco.

In order for a clinic to set this up, all they'll need to do is have a ship, some 15 miles off the coast of any US state, and they'll be in international waters. Then, they can practice medicine without being busted by the govt. Of course, if they bring the Rx drugs on-land, they may get busted for trafficking but that's another story.

What a great idea. You just solved our screwed up medical system. Patients are always going to countries like India and Singapore for surgery at 1/10th the cost. It's easier to get on a boat a few miles off shore.
The prescription can come by mail from somewhere else.

Strategist says

Patients are always going to countries like India and Singapore for surgery at 1/10th the cost. It's easier to get on a boat a few miles off shore.

It better be calm seas if someone's cutting me open.

Let's start with regular medicine on the ship first but then, fly ppl onto a foreign land, for intensive elective surgeries.

futuresmc says

We are well on our way to this future and we have to figure out what we will do once no human or only a tiny minority of human artists are qualified to work. Humans have spent thousands of years primarily defining ourselves by our labor and our abilities to acquire resources and now we're on the loosing end of that proposition. I have no idea how this is going to end.

It's either anarchy or a full blown welfare state.

futuresmc says

And the new technologies can think. Previous generations had dumb technology. Now we have Watson and it's ilk. This throws jobs that require human brain power and discretion onto the scrap heap. As AI evolves there won't be anything a human can do better than a computer. We are well on our way to this future and we have to figure out what we will do once no human or only a tiny minority of human artists are qualified to work. Humans have spent thousands of years primarily defining ourselves by our labor and our abilities to acquire resources and now we're on the loosing end of that proposition. I have no idea how this is going to end.

If artificial intelligence becomes superior to natural intelligence, all humans will be traveling, partying and pursuing hobbies. The money would come from what the smart robots produce for us.

Strategist says

If artificial intelligence becomes superior to natural intelligence, all humans will be traveling, partying and pursuing hobbies. The money would come from what the smart robots produce for us.

But in the beginning, all it needs to be is smart enough, to replace many of the dumb white collar jobs out there. I mean c'mon, does the avg person use any multivariable calculus on his job?

Rin says

Strategist says

If artificial intelligence becomes superior to natural intelligence, all humans will be traveling, partying and pursuing hobbies. The money would come from what the smart robots produce for us.

But in the beginning, all it needs to be is smart enough, to replace many of the dumb white collar jobs out there. I mean c'mon, does the avg person use any multivariable calculus on his job?

Most people cannot even add.

Strategist says

Most people cannot even add.

Thus, we need no where near the so-called Strong AI singularity to completely vanquish the current white collar job market.

Rin says

Strategist says

Most people cannot even add.

Thus, we need no where near the so-called Strong AI singularity to completely vanquish the current white collar job market.

I didn't know what Strong Al is...had to look it up. You have to come down to my level. I know what multi variable regression and calculus is, because I did the shit. Like you said, not once, ever, did I have a need for it. I'm so glad I forgot it all.
You are right, the white collar job market with low skills is soon to be extinct. Look what happened to all the typists.

Strategist says

You are right, the white collar job market with low skills is soon to be extinct

Much of the white collar world is 'low' skills, even if they mimic themselves as high end.

How does a typically Oracle DBA think? 'What's the costliest SQL statement? What's the typical daily load?'

How about a tax consultant, 'What's the implication of a jurisdiction based transaction? How about applying those charges to another business quarter?'

The above can both earn six figures but for the most part, their real talent has little to do with creativity. They're a part of the whole 'dog & pony' show of corporate America. At some point in time, AI will replace many persons like the aforementioned despite not having reached the full intelligence of a so-called human, nevermind a Leonardo DaVinci.

Rin says

Strategist says

You are right, the white collar job market with low skills is soon to be extinct

Much of the white collar world is 'low' skills, even if they mimic themselves as high end.

How does a typically Oracle DBA think? 'What's the costliest SQL statement? What's the typical daily load?'

How about a tax consultant, 'What's the implication of a jurisdiction based transaction? How about applying those charges to another business quarter?'

The above can both earn six figures but for the most part, their real talent has little to do with creativity. They're a part of the whole 'dog & pony' show of corporate America. At some point in time, AI will replace many persons like the aforementioned despite not having reached the full intelligence of a so-called human, nevermind a Leonardo DaVinci.

Many low level white collar jobs are more in danger of being replaced by low paid workers in third world countries, rather then robots. As the wages of third world workers rise, robots will become more of a threat, even to the third world workers.
How would a robot replace a creative mind like Leonardo Da Vinci, or even getting a simple idea? Creativity is a living thing attribute.

Strategist says

How would a robot replace a creative mind like Leonardo Da Vinci, or even getting a simple idea? Creativity is a living thing attribute.

The point is that Leonardo Da Vinci is not a 'job'. He's an independently wealthy person who follows his passions.

Back in Leo's day, he was sponsored by a nobleman. He wasn't an engineer for Honeywell corporation.

Today, most while collar types are corporate b*tches, not Da Vincis.

To be a Renaissance man, you need your own source of funding, independent of corporate things like billable hours or licensing revenues.

"I was reading a book the other day. It's all about civilization or something. A nutty kind of a book. Do you know that the guy says that machinery is going to take the place of every profession?"

--Dinner at Eight, 1934

Rin says

Today, most while collar types are corporate b*tches, not Da Vincis.

In other words, Watson on a desktop = end of white collar-dom.

Sure, a lot of ppl will try to become salesmen a/o some-sort-of lead role but as in musical chairs, those jobs will not be open to all the displaced so-called knowledge workers.

In my actuary example, the two certified actuarial fellows, in place of running a dept of 25 persons, will simply have Watson do all the analysis, pricing, and projections for them. Even the two fellows could one day be replaced but for the sake of appearance and legal statute, it's better if the owners keep that skeleton crew around. So there you have it, 27 jobs compressed into 2. This will happen, industry after industry.

Why would the big 3 accounting firms need to recruit from a 100 universities when all those auditing tasks could be done by a Watson server? Yes, each of the remaining senior auditors will simply be the human face for the Fortune 5000 clients who want to speak to someone about their GL and compliance issues. Again it's a 10 to 1 compression ratio of former human jobs to future human jobs.

Rin says

Again it's a 10 to 1 compression ratio of former human jobs to future human jobs.

Is no one worried? Or has everyone accepted my prognostication?

Rin says

Rin says

Again it's a 10 to 1 compression ratio of former human jobs to future human jobs.

Is no one worried? Or has everyone accepted my prognostication?

Nope, no worries.
By the time it happens, I will be with Pamela Anderson, Britney Spears and Madonna.

New Renter says

Yet despite all this talk of automation replacing human workers you can still walk into just about any pharmacy in America and have your prescription filled by a human staff. The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

You already have geniuses like Vinod Khosla advocating machines replacing humans as doctors - I'm sure it makes a good speech. The opinions of billionaires are broadcast no matter how stupid or insane they are.

But I don't see people addressing the basic problem: What happens to all the humans who can't get a job because technology has automated and/or replaced it?

I'm glad I didn't grow up in this era - it sucks.

monkframe says

But I don't see people addressing the basic problem: What happens to all the humans who can't get a job because technology has automated and/or replaced it?

What you don't seem to understand is that the heads of corporations, don't care about these cultural and macroeconomic issues. Their concern is their bottomline and their golden parachutes.

There seems to be this nonsensical notion that corporate execs care about maintaining a particular number of employees. Sorry, but that's just not the case.

What's going to happen in reality, is that the dystopia will kick in, before the politicians decide to go for the long term welfare state.

monkframe says

You already have geniuses like Vinod Khosla advocating machines replacing humans as doctors - I'm sure it makes a good speech.

there are some people who are lucky.. right place right time and their are real geniuses... Vinod is just lucky but not very bright.

The future of business will eventually eliminate production jobs, all the way down to stocking shelves.

Where one should be focused over the next twenty years:

-Engineering
-Marketing / Design
-Legal
-Plumbing / Electrical
-Care / services / therapy
-Research

Forget middle management and working your way up the Peter Principal org chart. If you are not skilled in one of the above it'll be a very bumpy ride.

Strategist says

Most people cannot even add.

Sure they can ... just let me get my calculator out here. Wait, the calculator has been replaced by this app on my phone so ... what was the question? Oh yeah, so now I have the app loaded up, what math problem did you have again?

Strategist says

I know what multi variable regression and calculus is, because I did the shit. Like you said, not once, ever, did I have a need for it.

But wasn't it cool to learn/finally know that you actually COULD divide by zero?

Rin says

despite not having reached the full intelligence of a so-called human, nevermind a Leonardo DaVinci.

I dunno, you should SEE how creative some electricians and plumbers get when trying to get something passed for inspection. The ideas and the way they reason behind the ideas ... the very definition of creative.

I'm waiting for robots to replace Realtor's. How hard is it to open a door and tell the buyer what a great time it is to buy.

When are robots going to replace consumers? The human ones we have now are very ineffective at spending money and buying houses.

mmmarvel says

Strategist says

I know what multi variable regression and calculus is, because I did the shit. Like you said, not once, ever, did I have a need for it.

But wasn't it cool to learn/finally know that you actually COULD divide by zero?

I never learnt that part. Must have been sleeping in math class as usual.

Rin says

monkframe says

But I don't see people addressing the basic problem: What happens to all the humans who can't get a job because technology has automated and/or replaced it?

What you don't seem to understand is that the heads of corporations, don't care about these cultural and macroeconomic issues. Their concern is their bottomline and their golden parachutes.

There seems to be this nonsensical notion that corporate execs care about maintaining a particular number of employees. Sorry, but that's just not the case.

What's going to happen in reality, is that the dystopia will kick in, before the politicians decide to go for the long term welfare state.

Oh, I understand that very well, it's just their insanity and stupidity as they megaphone it to the rest of us that I was noting.

Jaron Lanier has interesting things to say about this subject of automated jobs replacing the masses in employment. He even has a proposal that seems very reasonable: That we be paid in micropayments for all the data being collected (stolen) on us every day we live.

New Renter says

Yet despite all this talk of automation replacing human workers you can still walk into just about any pharmacy in America and have your prescription filled by a human staff. The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

The large mail order pharmacies probably work this way. your neighborhood pharmacy can't be setup to to huge volume like that

CMY says

The future of business will eventually eliminate production jobs, all the way down to stocking shelves.

Where one should be focused over the next twenty years:

-Engineering

-Marketing / Design

-Legal

-Plumbing / Electrical

-Care / services / therapy

-Research

Forget middle management and working your way up the Peter Principal org chart. If you are not skilled in one of the above it'll be a very bumpy ride.

Wrong wrong wrong!

Young peole need to focus on what society actually values, not what it pays lip service to. This of course is to be attractive, preferably an uberhottie. This is the bare minimum needed for the REALLY lucrative professions:

Golddigging (there is no faster path to wealth than marrying rich!)
Celebrity
Sales

Don't let the dissapointment of what you were born with set you back, modern cosmetic dentistry and surgery can work miracles.

zzyzzx says

New Renter says

Yet despite all this talk of automation replacing human workers you can still walk into just about any pharmacy in America and have your prescription filled by a human staff. The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

The large mail order pharmacies probably work this way. your neighborhood pharmacy can't be setup to to huge volume like that

Why not? A robot pharmacy would likely have a breakeven point measured in at most couple years at most over a human run one. Probably less.

New Renter says

Sales

That's exactly where I'm at today.

When I'd started in this hedge fund work, I was in the quant/IT support side for our prop trading algos, developing point-in-time risk analysis tracking with taxable audit trails. You might say that that was a "real" job in a BS sort of way, as it's far removed from industrial R&D.

Then, as funds flowed in and auditing protocols were finalized, I was spending more and more time, yakking with clients, to help sustain and grow the business.

Today, that's nearly 100% of the my job.

So yeah, Sales! Sales! Sales! I'm not the Wolf but perhaps, a Bobcat of Wall Street :-)

Strategist says

mmmarvel says

Strategist says

I know what multi variable regression and calculus is, because I did the shit. Like you said, not once, ever, did I have a need for it.

But wasn't it cool to learn/finally know that you actually COULD divide by zero?

I never learnt that part. Must have been sleeping in math class as usual.

No point is staying awake for those university classes as that theoretical convergence of the denominator towards zero, is based upon continuous function where dx - > 0 and then, you have an analytical solution for a derivative.

Real world data is discretized, in the 1/2, 1, 5, 15 min demarcations and thus, the denominator has to convergence upon a low noise threshold, for the result to be applicable, otherwise, it's just a random blip.

And that's all I can say, the rest is all voodoo.