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Rate Hikes or Not?


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2005 Sep 2, 5:04pm   10,856 views  74 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

It's no longer just about oil prices, the economy is going to get hit with a MAJOR impact from Katrina. What do you think the Fed's response will be? Will the Fed continue to raise rates? Will they stop raising them and let them stay at current levels? Or, do you think they might actually lower them?

What do you think the lasting impact of Katrina is going to be? How is it going to affect the economy and housing?

#housing

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31   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 2:44pm  

In San Luis Obispo there is a fucking church on every corner, worse in Cambria, every 1/2 block. Keep your “god” out of my wife’s womb, or give the people who have the children the money to give the child a decent fucking life. I am so sorry people because I just rant and rant, but I don’t know what the fuck to do.

Vote. Encourage others to vote. Can you image if the 50% who don't vote did??? It could change the whole framework of this country.

32   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 2:50pm  

I gotta log off for awhile. Please behave all. ;)

33   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 3:32pm  

I'm fine with the popular vote, it's all good with me. The whole vote thing would work. Hear me out. Most of the voters who vote now are the boomers and the elderly. The 18-25 vote is virtually nil. Again 50% of the population doesn't vote. If they did, screw the boomers, they're not powerful enough to outweigh the rest of us if we'd just vote. I vote, but soooooo many people I know don't bother. I'm tired of people who don't vote complaining about how things are.

Btw. I have a unique view on the whole pro-choice issue. I'm for it, I think it's necessary. But, I was adopted as a child before Roe v. Wade and I know if I had been concieved later, weeeeell, I wouldn't be here talking to you good people. I also have never had a pregnancy scare. Birth control is plentiful and effective and if actually used can pretty much prevent most unwanted pregnancy's. I've know women who've had 4-5 abortions because they were too lazy to use birth control and were then unable to have children. Did you know that every time a woman has an abortion it scars her womb? It does. But I still think a woman should have the right, and no woman should ever bear a child out of rape or incest.

34   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 3:37pm  

Sacto, I don’t think there ever should be a question as to reproductive issues as women should be the only ones who decide when where and what a woman should do with their bodies.

I hear you loud and clear.

35   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 3:41pm  

Surfer-X

My dad is also extremely passionate about the issue. I'm pretty sure it's saved his bacon some time in the past. And you seem very passionate about so many issues. Are you always like this or is the blog a place to vent. Me? I'm usually pretty even tempered. I figure I'll worry about it when the time comes. I don't think it's worth getting an aneurysm until I know for sure I need to get angry about something.

36   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 3:48pm  

Surfer-X

I'm sorry if things have been hard. I guess I'm lucky to still feel glad to be here. My upbringing was less then stellar, but I'm learning that's more often the case than not. Oh well, move on. I know from your posts that you have a fabulous sense of humor and I for one am glad you're around to talk to us.

37   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 3:59pm  

Well Jack, it looks like you've logged off too. Just as well, we can't seem to stay OT no matter what.

38   HARM   2005 Sep 3, 5:23pm  

Well Jack, it looks like you’ve logged off too. Just as well, we can’t seem to stay OT no matter what.

Geez... should I take back what I posted earlier? I guess this is now the 'anything you're passionate about' blog.

39   Peter P   2005 Sep 3, 5:26pm  

Geez… should I take back what I posted earlier? I guess this is now the ‘anything you’re passionate about’ blog.

I am really passionate about food. Should we talk about sushi or Prime(tm) steak? :)

40   Peter P   2005 Sep 3, 5:30pm  

Anyway, my feel is... rate hike at measured pace until 4.5% - 5%. I guess we will hear more and more from the FED about hw "robust" our economy still is even after Katrina and that risks of inflation remain elevated.

41   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 5:33pm  

Harm

I'm so so sorry. I deleted a bunch of inflamatory stuff, and then got into another completely random discussion with Surfer-X. I'm thinking about re-posting a "why so emotional?" blog. Tempers are a flarin' these days.

42   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 5:35pm  

Peter P

I think the fed is going to keep raising rates too. I think the risk is greater if they don't for fear of sending "weak economy" signals out by not continuing the rate hikes as planned.

43   Peter P   2005 Sep 3, 6:03pm  

SactoQt, there is no more ways to spin this any more. Whatever signal the FED sends, it will be taken as a bad signal sooner or later.

We are actually in a situation that is very similar to 1999/2000. I was amused by the market seemingly cheering only at bad news.

The credit/liquidity bubble is undeniable. Its end is also near.

44   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 6:10pm  

We are actually in a situation that is very similar to 1999/2000. I was amused by the market seemingly cheering only at bad news.

I'm not sure I understand the market cheering at bad news part.

45   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 6:20pm  

Stanman

It really isn't what you think. I'm often more conservative in my opinions and thought there was value in much of what you said. The problem is that when people start arguing back and forth vs. having a real discussion that's on topic it contaminates the whole thread and no one really ends up participating. Surfer-X's comments do not represent my feelings but he wasn't engaging in an argument so I left them. If you find them particularly offensive, then heck, I'll go ahead and delete those too. Why not, this has not been a particularly productive thread. Maybe I should take the whole post down. I'm too tired to keep this up.

46   SQT15   2005 Sep 3, 6:32pm  

To be fair Jack suggested I delete his comments too. I'm sure he'll feel contrite tomorrow.

I'm not a Bush basher at all. I heard on the news a number of times that the Governor of Louisiana didn't request Federal aid when it would have done any good. It has also been said by a couple of media outlets that Bush wanted to get aid out asap but was hindered because of her inaction.

47   Peter P   2005 Sep 3, 6:46pm  

I’m not sure I understand the market cheering at bad news part.

The market was/is reacting postively to negative news (e.g. Katrina 2005) while reacting negatively to positive news (e.g. good employment numbers 1999/2000). Basically it was/is declaring itself a liquidity bubble.

48   Zephyr   2005 Sep 3, 10:37pm  

Censorship is a tool for suppressing opposing views, nothing more. We can put a nice perfume on it to make it sound like it has a noble purpose. But the stench of censorship wafts through that. This is clear to any who step back from the specific situation and consider the broader ramifications of censorship. Who’s views are to be censored? What is acceptable, and what is not? Who decides? There are no unbiased people in the world, so there will never be an unbiased censor.

We may not like what some people say. We may disagree with their view. We might even find it offensive. If so, then we should speak our view and our objection. But censorship is a very weak response. We will not all find the same things offensive. Some people are easily upset and some are not. Never shall we be able to please everyone. No serious exploration of any topic can be completed if we are to avoid all areas of potential sensitivity. Censorship is the death of intelligent discourse.

I hope this forum will return to intelligent exploration.

49   Zephyr   2005 Sep 3, 11:52pm  

On the other hand, there is certainly some value to be gained from having rules, provided the rules do not restrict the expression of viewpoints on the topic.

Some examples include “all posts should have some connection to the topic” and “No use of profanity” etc.

The response to rule violations must be uniform, regardless of how or by whom the rule is violated.

50   Zephyr   2005 Sep 4, 12:05am  

The most fundamental issue to determine is whether this forum is to be a discussion board that allows and explores differing viewpoints, or shall it be a “feel good” club, limited to like minded people and harmonious comment.

51   Zephyr   2005 Sep 4, 12:16am  

Jack, It is not possible for me to judge the comments by Iceman because I can’t read them. I gather that his comments were offensive and censored.

In looking back through the thread I find flagrant and repetitiously offensive comments by serfer-X left uncensored. So what is the standard for censorship. Who’s books shall be burned and whose shall be kept. Make some rules and enforce them evenly.

52   Zephyr   2005 Sep 4, 12:18am  

Jack, I do not know the history of MP so I can’t judge. During the limited time that I have spent on this board I never saw anything that would cause me to care one way or the other about his posts.

53   Zephyr   2005 Sep 4, 12:28am  

Jack, It is one thing to censor profanity including racial slurs. But this board seems to allow flagrant profanity. I don’t think it is good to allow it. Some profanity (such as racial slurs) is more broadly offensive than other profanity. But it is all offensive. Where will you draw the line?

If you allow some profanity and bashing, when is it ok to insult and bash, and when is it not?

54   Zephyr   2005 Sep 4, 12:29am  

Fill me in. Why was MP evicted?

55   Zephyr   2005 Sep 4, 12:57am  

Ok, So, I see that MP was considered to be disruptive to the value of the forum and (between your comments and what I remember of prior discussions) ignoring him was not practical.

56   Zephyr   2005 Sep 4, 1:11am  

Jack, I recognize that some people will be destructive to the value of this forum. Perhaps they are offensive (not because they disagree). Some are a problem because of how they post, or because they push the board away from the topic, or because they clog things up in general. Certainly a person can do these things without breaking specific rules, so rules will not cover all situations.

You ask what is wrong with a vote (to evict). Unfortunately, the very process of a vote is disruptive to the dialog of the board, and is subject to the happenstance of timing – voting is limited to those online at the moment. Voting works, but it is awkward if the need is more than a rare occurrence.

I don’t know how the mechanics of the website work, but it seems that the only efficient way to keep the forum on topic and away from profane insults, bashing and jamming is to have one person responsible for each topic thread, and have that person be the judge using a standard that is not influenced by topical bias or opinion.

I am only a visitor here. I share my observations for your consideration.

57   SQT15   2005 Sep 4, 2:21am  

Oy Vey!
It seems trying to keep the blog civil is a no win. If I delete I offend, if I don't delete I offend.

Zephyr

I meant what I said earlier, it's the arguing back and forth that got deleted more than the context. It has a lot to do with 'I'm right you're wrong, so there.' Surfer-X can be offensive, but at the time no one was arguing with him or complaining so I let it stand. If there had been a large outcry that would be different. As it is there aren't any uniform rules, and I'm thinking it's time there should be.

What say you all?
Profanity?
Arguing in attack mode?
Content-- racism, politics etc.?
What kind of rules would you like?

58   SQT15   2005 Sep 4, 2:27am  

Btw I'm going to be out most of the day, so I won't be here to delete today, and so things are going to have to run their course. Hopefully by the end of the day there will a consensus on a uniform rule of conduct that can allow us to proceed without all this nonsense.

59   SQT15   2005 Sep 4, 3:18am  

Iceman

I'm sorry you feel slighted. I'm also sorry that you can't see how bringing race into the argument could be construed as offensive. I am not a liberal, and I don't vote liberal. I'm kind of a weird republocrat type who is more socially liberal but fiscally conservative. I try to be tolerant but there were two very quick votes to bump you off the thread. I didn't try to block you though, I never contacted Patrick and attempted to have you evicted, I simply deleted comments that there were quick, strong responses to. I am more than willing to listen to your arguments if you would just please try to keep in mind that there are some hot button issues that are perhaps best avoided. This is after all a HOUSING blog and all the discussions about politics are probably best had elsewhere.

60   SQT15   2005 Sep 4, 3:26am  

Iceman

One standard that has been uniformly agreed upon is no personal attacks. You only prove yourself wrong when you do that. If they continue I will contact Patrick and have you blocked from the site.

61   SQT15   2005 Sep 4, 3:33am  

I gotta go, please everyone try to behave like adults.

62   KurtS   2005 Sep 4, 3:50am  

"I’m also quite familiar with the socialist/communist tilt that the academia has and it’s effect on the more “educated” people of this country, ie: middle to uppermiddle class whites."

Lmao...ok, ok...this is all too funny--but wasn't this blog about rate hikes?

"I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, communist subversion, and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids. "
--General Ripper, Dr. Strangelove

63   HARM   2005 Sep 4, 5:20am  

Hopefully by the end of the day there will a consensus on a uniform rule of conduct that can allow us to proceed without all this nonsense.

SactoQt,

Welcome to the wonderful world of blog moderating! ;-)
Seriously, I'm sorry you are having to bear the brunt of the as yet not satisfactorily resolved issue of "when to delete/ban”.

My feelings on censorship are quite similar to Zephyr's. I don't particularly like it, or being forced into the role of censor, but there are times when it is justified, particularly to avoid the blog from devolving into a personal attack-oriented flame war. I also don't want a form of "tyranny of the majority" to codify a particular bias and squelch all opposing viewpoints. As many have pointed out, what good is a one-sided debate? Of course, this is a private blog, not the Constitution we’re talking about, so having some rules in place doesn’t seem out of line.

Unfortunately I don’t have any easy solutions to give you. In the past I have been reluctant and slow to pull the trigger (witness that it took 6 weeks and 2 votes to eradicate MP), and the end result: I've pleased almost no one. Some criticized me for acting too slowly, while others were uncomfortable with the idea of blocking anyone under any circumstances. And herein lies the difficulty in "ban by vote", as Zephyr correctly pointed out.

At this point, though, having a single-man moderation format wouldn’t work, mainly because everyone (especially Patrick) is too busy with work, family etc. to actively monitor this blog 24/7. So I think the next best thing would be to institute a more-or-less uniform set of rules that the various thread moderators could use as a general guideline.

Here are some I would suggest:

(1) No gratuitous personal attacks directed at another blogger or flame wars.
I see no discussion value in allowing personal flame wars to hijack this blog. If you want to get passionate, attack the issues, not other bloggers. Occasional comedic jabs at other bloggers (within reason), or forceful-but-valid criticism of someone else’s arguments do not constitute personal attacks in my book –just good debate.

(2) No spam.
This should cover not only “real” commercial spam, like the kind that up until recently infested Ben’s blog on a daily basis, but someone who insists upon repeatedly posting far off-topic, irrelevant nonsense --especially the incendiary kind intended to incite a flame war.

(3) Occasional infractions can be enforced by simply deleting the comments and issuing a warning to the offender. Repeat offenders may have to blocked. The decision to block should be mainly reserved for habitual or extreme offenders, and can decided upon either by (a) the thread moderators among themselves, or (b) put up for a simple majority vote (as was the case with MP).

I’m uncomfortable with the idea of censoring profanity (excepting where directed at another blogger –see #1) in that it would “sanitize” the blog too much and automatically eliminate many of the blog favorites, such as the oft-mentioned Surfer-X rants.

Just my opinion, I look forward to hearing from others…

64   HARM   2005 Sep 4, 5:45am  

Stanman,

Glad you agree --hopefully we can all come to some kind of consensus on this and move forward. I didn't see all the back-and-forth between Iceman, Jack and you before they were deleted, so I can't comment about that, but I agree that legitimate posts should be kept. Please keep in mind, though, that SactoQt, Peter P & myself are not professional moderators, so we sometimes will make mistakes.

65   HARM   2005 Sep 4, 6:52am  

Note: If anyone disagrees with this post and it gets deleted, I will not post any more to this forum.

Stanman, no one is in favor of deleting/banning on-topic opinions --it's mainly the personal attack/flame war stuff that really gets people turned off.

66   SQT15   2005 Sep 4, 7:17am  

Boy oh boy. I am not a fan of censorship. Remember, Journalism degree? Big fan of free speech. The thing is that immediately following Iceman's post I had 2 people (I can't remember who besides Jack weighed in) who were really offended. I looked at the post and did see comments that unneccessarily brought race into the discussion. I made a choice to delete to try to keep things civil. Stanman interpreted the dialoge that followed as he chose to and started to engage Jack in a flame war without the full context of the discussion. It just further deteriorated from there. Jack doesn't get a free pass either, but as Jack is typically a gentleman I did give him the benefit of the doubt. At the end of the day, no one is happy. I'm tired of the nonsense and think I'm going to bow out. Perhaps someone else can create a new thread and moderate all the childish behavior. I already have two children to raise and don't need any more of this crap.

67   Jamie   2005 Sep 4, 7:22am  

Wow, I was away from the computer for a few days and missed the party! This is one prolific group.

HARM, I think your list of guidelines is a very good one, and I also think you thread moderators are doing an excellent job. Thank you to HARM, Peter P, and Sacto (am I missing anyone?) for keeping this blog going so well.

This is truly the most intelligent group I've ever encountered in the internet. Now let's all hold hands and sing kumbaya. :-P

68   Jamie   2005 Sep 4, 7:36am  

Random thoughts:

Sacto, I'm sorry you've had such a hard time trying to moderate this weekend. I hope you'll still stick around and talk to us. I always enjoy reading your posts. You and I share very similar views, so I know if I don't have time to post that you will have said what I was thinking. :-)

I have nothing intelligent to say about this particular thread's topic. But I keep thinking about a point that has been made here in the past few months regarding how some seemingly unrelated event--like Katrina--will be the thing that causes the housing market downturn. I can't remember who said that, but it's stuck in my head.

Seems like people are feeling really passionate this weekend, and I have to guess it's a residual effect if seeing one of our great American cities washed away and seeing images on TV that we never imagined really happening in America. (Anyone read Stephen King's The Stand? That book's been on my mind a lot this week...how when civilization is destroyed, we're left with trying to survive amid a struggle between good and evil. It was shocking to me to actually see a bit of that happening in NO this week.)

Prat, I want that "Bush - Just to Piss You Off" bumper sticker too.

69   KurtS   2005 Sep 4, 7:43am  

"The fact is that people in the S.F. Bay Area act as if they live on a university campus where nobody can possibly state anything besides their liberal opinions, or they are banned or flamed."

A few BIG assumptions there about SF BA (and I darsesay not fact). This stuff really has no place on this blog, and to quote Jack "I truly don't want to keep this up". Agreed on all counts; there's no reason to go there.

Now...if the Fed keeps the rate low to help recovery in NOLA, does anybody think that will prolong speculation in housing?--just an on-topic issue I've been thinking about...

70   Jamie   2005 Sep 4, 7:53am  

KurtS, I do think rates remaining low would probably prolong speculation outside the gulf coast. I have a hard time imagining people continuing to speculate right now in hurricane zones though. If they do...well, lot's of things defy logic in the housing market lately.

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