patrick.net

http://www.ourbroker.com/news/mortgage-rates-remain-low-081814/

How Long Can Mortgage Rates Remain So Low?

Mortgage rates have been far lower than expected in 2014, rates which should have resulted in booming home sales and rising real estate values. However that has not been the case. Instead what we have is a weird situation where mortgage rates remain in a trough and potentially might even go lower.

First, the Dodd Frank rules have succeeded in reducing marketplace risk for mortgage investors. Therefore, they want to bring their dollars here from all over the world.

Second, with so many dollars and so little risk in the system it naturally follows that interest rates remain near the historic lows seen in 2012.

Third, it’s actually possible that rates could continue their decline and once again dip below 4 percent. As of mid-August we were not that far off and with real estate sales trailing 2013 and refinancing in the dumper it’s entirely possible that rates might actually go somewhat lower.

At this point the real question regarding mortgage rates is not how long they can stay so low but whether they might actually go lower. It will be interesting to see what happens in September when real estate sales begin to slow after the summer.

No it isn't. NAR says the market is great!

Sorry, I stand corrected. I didn't realize that NAR said that, after all, they are infallible.

For all the claims of economic improvement the reality is that much antipathy remains in the marketplace, a feeling that the recovery is incomplete and has not included everyone, a good reason in some eyes not to make major real estate commitments. A second point is that the Federal Reserve’s impact on mortgage rates is overblown because after tapering and more tapering rates after the initial rush have simply not risen. Indeed, it’s entirely possible after this week’s jobs report that mortgage rates might actually slink below 4 percent.

ChapulinColorado says

Sorry, I stand corrected. I didn't realize that NAR said that, after all, they are infallible.

Sacramento Real Estate (2008) and Realtor's. I remember that time well. :-(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsGQCTfYp1w

City-by-city look at home prices in June, including the slowdown in San Francisco

Here’s a city-by-city look at home prices, as the Case-Shiller 20-city composite rose 1% in June, to take the year-on-year gain to 8.1%
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/08/26/city-by-city-look-at-home-prices-in-june-including-the-slowdown-in-san-francisco/

• The annual gain for San Francisco has slowed from 18.4% in April to 12.9% in June.

Looks like you should hurry and buy a house in San Francisco or forever be priced out.

jvolstad says

Sacramento Real Estate (2008) and Realtor's. I remember that time well. :-(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsGQCTfYp1w

"Let's see what happens to housing values when the Fed stops devaluing the dollar."

Wanna take a guess?

SF: Nice houses...concrete yards.

ChapulinColorado says

Wanna take a guess?

jvolstad says

ChapulinColorado says

Wanna take a guess?

LOL

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/08/19/fannie-mae-sledgehammers-housing-forecasts-to-smithereens/

Fannie Mae Sledgehammers Housing Forecasts

You’d think the housing market is in fine shape, based on the sizzling optimism of the National Association of Home Builders, which just released its Housing Market Index. It rose to 55 in August – above 50 means more builders view conditions as good than poor – the third month in a row of gains, and the highest level since January.....

....

But without booming housing construction, the US economy would have to perform a miracle to reach “escape velocity.” And miracles are rare in our modern world. But then, there’s always “next year.”

There’s a fundamental reason behind the housing drag: Homeownership hit the skids when homes became a highly leveraged asset class, flipped and laddered by speculators, rather than lived in by normal folks. Read

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/07/29/heres-the-chart-that-shows-why-the-housing-market-is-sick/

ChapulinColorado says

SF: Nice houses...concrete yards.

My former Bay Area backyard. I had a great landlady and I consider her and her family, friends.

Very nice, especially large backyard for SFBA.... plus you don't have to mow the lawn.

ChapulinColorado says

Very nice, especially large backyard for SFBA

Had a nice view of the Bay as well.

Gorgeous. Can imagine the foggy fall. Love that fog rolling in the evenings or evaporating in the mid-morning/afternoon. Plus that October moon in the SFBA is my favorite.

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/08/22/the-home-flipping-bubble-implodes/

The Home-Flipping Bubble Implodes

Home flipping – buying a home and reselling it within 12 months, hopefully for a profit – is the American entrepreneur’s reaction to the vagaries of the housing market. When these gutsy people perceive a big profit opportunity, such as soaring home prices, they pile into the market, and profit grows on trimmed trees and freshly painted walls and rehabbed bathrooms, and flipping volume soars, and the time it takes to complete a flip drops, and nothing can go wrong.

Call it Crazy says

ChapulinColorado says

For all the claims of economic improvement the reality is that much antipathy remains in the marketplace, a feeling that the recovery is incomplete and has not included everyone, a good reason in some eyes not to make major real estate commitments.

This also has something to do with it:

*

Less people applying and more doubling-up. Especially Millenials.

Bubbabear says

Homeownership will only go up when people give up on the concept of pensions and treat their houses as a depreciating asset rather than a stock.

considering population growth is 3% annually but land doesn't grow and the current rate is higher than pre-bubble rate, i'd say that's a very positive graph.

Get a load of this chart from DataQuick’s National Home Sales Snapshot. It’ll tell you everything need to know about housing.

How about for SFBA...

http://www.dqnews.com/

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay140814.aspx

The Table in this link is insane. Sales are down but price is up for SFBA, except Solano.

As you can see, prices are flatlining or drifting lower while sales are sinking like a stone. That’s the whole ball of wax, isn’t it?

Sure, sales will increase in the spring (as they always do), but judging by the sharp dropoff in last year’s hottest markets, this could be the crappiest spring selling season since the crash.

Why?

Now take a look at one last chart. It’s by Logan Mohtashami at dshort.com. from an article titled, Mortgage Purchase Applications Running Out Of Time.

Again I stand corrected. Just didn't realize people still accepted cash.