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There is no real estate bubble !


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2006 Sep 6, 3:39pm   13,536 views  160 comments

by StuckInBA   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

tombstone

I now agree with the housing bulls. There is no housing bubble.

The bubble is no longer "is", it is now "was".

Yes, I think it's time to officially declare that there is no longer a housing bubble in USA. There was one, whose size, implications and aftermath are the only remaining questions. The MSM has jumped on the bandwagon. The bulls (NAR, CAR and their mouthpieces) have no clue as to how to describe the situation.

The depth and speed of the unwinding process seems to have surprised everyone. Take a look at the DQ charts for Bay Area.

http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSJMN.shtm

San Mateo and Santa Cruz have -ve YOY gains for the median. Santa Clara is holding to a 0.1% gain. The price per SQFT is also rapidly trending downwards. Sales have fallen over the cliff. No matter how faulty and lagging these indicators are, they will make headlines. I was hoping to see that (-ve YOY median in Santa Clara county) happen by the end of this year. Seems like we are way ahead of schedule.

Maybe we all wish this to get over quickly, but we know it won't. Still, do you think it's happening faster than you had expected ? Or slower ? Or about the same ?

- StuckInBA

#housing

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63   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 8:25am  

Animals would eat you if they evolved the teeth and stomach and cutleries for it.

Very true. There are no laws in the Animal Kingdom against slaughtering humans.

I wouldn’t oppose vat grown meat though, as long as it tastes good.

I agree. But we should never ban meat.

64   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 8:27am  

Some open space preserve people actually approached us for support. They said they wanted to force vertical development. No support from me!

Once we allow/encourage vertical development and fix the urban environment there will be less sprawl as a result. Banning development will not work.

I should have told them that I would support building condos in Yosemite.

65   Randy H   2006 Sep 7, 8:27am  

The answer is genetically engineered, cloned meats for consumption.

*hides*

(someone did say we need to stir up more controversy around here, so I also propose the above be powered by breeder nuclear reactors)

66   astrid   2006 Sep 7, 8:28am  

Peter P,

2 rules.

Never invite vegans for dinner. If vegans show up uninvited, toss them a garden salad and a lemon juice vinagrette.

Spinach quiches for the rest.

I don't support factory farming though. They're unnecessarily cruel and polluting in my opinion, and the meat doesn't taste very good.

67   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 8:29am  

The answer is genetically engineered, cloned meats for consumption.

No need to hide.

I would support that. If cloned meat (cheap Kobe beef?) is available, there will be less demand on slaughtering animals. Problem solved.

68   skibum   2006 Sep 7, 8:30am  

Robert Coté Says:

CNBC [thefinancial entertainment network] on in the background, and they are just hammering housing,

Yeah, brutal and even Maria is piling on.

I'm picturing Maria piling it on... not a bad one.

69   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 8:30am  

Never invite vegans for dinner. If vegans show up uninvited, toss them a garden salad and a lemon juice vinagrette.

Perhaps a pasta with pine nuts, arugula and cherry tomato.

70   Randy H   2006 Sep 7, 8:32am  

I can guarantee that it will happen, eventually. It's a question of time. In the future, people will pay a huge premium for "natural" food, whereas engineered food will provide mass sustenance. It will happen for pure economic reasons. Less pollution, greater safety, higher efficiency, and more reliability of product quality. There will probably be some zealots who will try to bomb the factories, but that's always the case with anything that works well.

71   skibum   2006 Sep 7, 8:33am  

newsfreak Says:

Or should the tombstone be wrapped in perigraniteel?

I think the tombstone in the graphic is granite already!

But back to the original post, technically, isn't the bubble still alive and well? The deflating/collapsing period of the bubble is still part of the bubble phenomenon, just the downside of it.

72   StuckInBA   2006 Sep 7, 8:33am  

HARM-X Industries Ltd :

Cool. Thanks for the graphics.

73   astrid   2006 Sep 7, 8:35am  

CNBC women are the penultimate generation in the Bene Gesserit breeding program.

74   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 8:35am  

One of the questions unresolved from the BlogII party was; if cats had opposable thumbs would we be pets, food or sport?

All three. Cats are amazingly smart and/or "evil". One of our cats has "human" eyes. Very cute, yet scary at times.

75   astrid   2006 Sep 7, 8:36am  

Peter P Says:
September 7th, 2006 at 3:30 pm

"Perhaps a pasta with pine nuts, arugula and cherry tomato."

If you want them to come back...

76   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 8:38am  

If you want them to come back…

All right, I will scare them away by throwing in some crab meat.

77   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 8:38am  

Sprawl is good. Sprawl encourages biodiversity. Sprawl protects indeveloped spaces from the machinations of planners.

Perhaps. This is why we should let the market decide.

78   astrid   2006 Sep 7, 8:40am  

I think cats have made incredible strides in making us their pet, food (can opener), and sport even without opposable thumbs.

79   Randy H   2006 Sep 7, 8:42am  

CNBC women are the penultimate generation in the Bene Gesserit breeding program.

Somehow, thinking of them as scifi witches doesn't make them any less attractive in my mind.

80   astrid   2006 Sep 7, 9:33am  

Peter P Says:

"All right, I will scare them away by throwing in some crab meat."

Perhaps a sea urchin dressing. You could claim you thought sea urchins were a vegetable.

81   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 9:34am  

You could claim you thought sea urchins were a vegetable.

You mean it is not? 8-O

83   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 10:14am  

I think the movement to force vegetarianism upon humanity is real. If we do not act we will soon face a crisis.

We are seriously being distracted from real issues like terrorism, diseases, and overpopulation.

Someone should start a Human First initiative.

84   a_friend_of_patrick   2006 Sep 7, 10:18am  

long time lurker here ... first time posting.

thought I'll share what I read in Rob Black's blog: http://robblack.typepad.com/robblack/

>>
Real Estate . . . These days there are more ``home for sale'' signs then than at any other point in time since 1993. Most gauges are confirming that the housing market has hit the brakes and may be in a tailspin. Existing-home sales dropped a more-than-expected in July while new-home sales fell 22 percent from the same month last year. And construction spending fell the most in five years. Higher mortgage rates and affordability concerns have been the bogeymen in the current U.S. housing decline but little attention has been paid to the adjustable-rate mortgages. Those with adjustable-rate loans -- almost a quarter of all U.S. mortgages -- will face re-adjustments soon. That means higher monthly outlays. Some 1 million people may lose their homes when 60 percent of adjustable loans ratchet borrowing costs higher by the end of 2006. Those at greatest risk are typically credit-challenged, carry high-cost, sub-prime adjustable loans and are mostly black or Hispanic. For the record, these borrowers tend to be concentrated in all urban areas in California.

Home-price growth slowed during the second quarter from a year earlier in the sharpest three-month plunge on record since 1975 which indicates this year's housing slump is deepening. The quarterly slowdown came during the ``spring selling season,'' when about half of a year's home sales typically occur, suggesting the housing market may be slowing more rapidly than economists initially predicted.
>>

85   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 10:24am  

As a first course or appetizer? Ewwww. Not even with a solid grenache. I’m not even a fan of cheeses in the first salad but a heavy meat early on? No, humans should never be served before the red wine.

Hor D'oeuvres. :-D Just kidding.

86   Michael Holliday   2006 Sep 7, 10:45am  

Phoenix is coming undone.

87   requiem   2006 Sep 7, 10:50am  

I am truly worried about our future in the hands of those who think animals have more rights than humans.
How can we fight back?

Such people can be handled by "Stray Human Projects"; they can be caught, spayed/neutered, and released into the Kalahari or other wild area to live as nature intended.

(With apologies to the person who originally suggested this, in Another Place.)

88   astrid   2006 Sep 7, 11:01am  

The PETA people deserve just that. They make a mockery of themselves and discredit more reasonable efforts to improve animal quality of life via spay/neutering, shelters, humanely raising meats, and so on.

They should be locked in a cage with 20 or so rabid minxes.

89   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 11:05am  

Just to clarify. I am not entirely against vegetarianism as a religion. However, it should not be involuntarily forced upon others. Sadly, I see this as a trend.

90   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 11:06am  

Animal welfare should only be an after-thought at least until we archieve Utopia.

91   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 12:26pm  

That’s a very, very common Science Fiction subtheme.

Culturing meat is already possible. It is just not economically feasible yet.

92   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 12:43pm  

Do you suppose this guy still works at Channel 6?

Huh?

93   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 12:51pm  

Isn’t that a little high? Even in the US most colleges don’t charge in the millions.

don't? won't?

94   anonymous   2006 Sep 7, 1:12pm  

*unlurks*

I've got my issues with the PETA. THere are these Toronto Vegetarian Association ads that offer to send you a free vegetarian cookbook if you email / write an address. But what you get is not a cookbook. Nooo it's a booklet with graphic articles / picture of animal cruelty, with maybe a few random vegetarian recipes at the back. No useful articles on how to make the switch, or what protein sources can replace the essential amino acids in meat (most vegetable protein sources will not give you ALL the amino acids you need).

Said mailout also contained a CD. I'm sure, with PETA docu-footage on more graphic stuff which I did not view. I guess their idea is to SHOCK you into vegetarianism and maybe some activism. Well, all good and fine, I guess, if you're into animals. I wrote them a pissed off email because I didn't like the deceptive nature of their ad and their tactics. but of course they never bothered to write back.

My primary interest in going somewhat vegetarian was to have a smaller ecological footprint and to be healthier (less fat intake). Ironically, I think PETA / Toronto Vegetarian Association set me back a few years.

Oh, and more U.S. housing bubble-trouble articles appeared in the Toronto newspapers this week. With more disclaimers that "it could never happen here". Yes yes, Toronto housing prices rose faster than inflation for the last five years, but not as fast as in Bubblicious California. Of course, the authors didn't bother to realize that housing prices do not have to shoot to the sky to fall -- they can just as easily fall from a not-very-high-plateau because it is already very difficult for median young family to buy a house, or even a townhouse, unless they move far out to the 'burbs.

*relurks*

95   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 1:22pm  

My primary interest in going somewhat vegetarian was to have a smaller ecological footprint and to be healthier (less fat intake).

You can begin by eating more veggies. I love veggies myself, although I do not like lettuce.

I guess their idea is to SHOCK you into vegetarianism and maybe some activism.

I doubt I can be shocked into vegetarianism by any graphic video.

96   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 1:29pm  

Many private schools are already at about $160,000 for four years.

And that is before sushi.

97   Michael Holliday   2006 Sep 7, 1:29pm  

HARM Says:
My apologies if someone has already posted this, but… wow!
Scroll down to “Reported Attacked!” link.

http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/
_____

I would have whacked that chick if she hit me with the water bottle.

I would have slapped her so hard on the left hand side of her face, she'd still be fricken' seeing stars.

Plus, my big-ass palm print would be permanently emlazoned on the side of her face in crimson, glowing red infamy!

I would have taken that dude to the ground, choked him out, then slapped another big paw print on his chubby cheeks like that chick.

Then...then...

I woke up.

Yawn...what a nightmare!

I dreampt of this weird ass housing bubble in California and all sorts of weird sh-t. Thank god I'm back in Kansas Toto. There's no place like home!

98   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 1:32pm  

The detiny of food is to be eaten.

Perhaps I should make this into a T-shirt.

99   Randy H   2006 Sep 7, 1:40pm  

I would have taken that dude to the ground, choked him out, then slapped another big paw print on his chubby cheeks like that chick.

Yea, maybe I'm just made of essentially dumbass, midwestern, redneck, farmtown boy stuff, but I'd have twisted that chump's head off like a rusty bottle top out of an old pop machine.

(One too many Ikura & Sake tonite. Pardon.)

100   Peter P   2006 Sep 7, 1:47pm  

Ikura & Sake

Which came into existence first: sake or ikura?

101   Randy H   2006 Sep 7, 2:30pm  

What we have here in Bend is a massive Bid/Ask spread.

And people berate me for uttering the word "sticky".

102   requiem   2006 Sep 7, 2:38pm  

Yea, maybe I’m just made of essentially dumbass, midwestern, redneck, farmtown boy stuff....

I think that only effects the 'how' you'd take them to the ground, not whether you'd do it at all. I think most rational people would do something to neutralize the threat. Personally, I think it's more efficient to step aside and help them find their way into a nearby section of wall or pavement. Seems easier, less liability, repeat as needed.

Oh, and "Vegetables aren't food. Vegetables are what food eats."

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