patrick.net

@New Renter, I have a problem reconciling your graphs with the concept that people are paid according to their productivity.

1) the productivity gains may not have raised prices of the goods. Fast food restaurants are incredibly productive but the dollar menu is still there.

2) I don't think your graphs show total wages paid to employees. i.e. employee wages + paid holidays + paid sick leave + paid personal days + paid vacation time + employer subsidized dental/medical/vision/prescription insurance + retirement plan employer contributions + employer paid life insurance + Medicare tax + Social Security tax + unemployment tax + workers compensation tax + etc., etc., etc.

3) they do not measure the specific contribution of labor to growth in output. Rather, they reflect the joint effects of many influences,
including changes in technology; capital investment; utilization of capacity, energy, and materials; the use of purchased services inputs, including contract employment services; the organization of production; managerial skill; in addition to the characteristics and effort of the workforce.”

tatupu70 says

That wasn't my point. My point was that inflation is a distraction. Real wages is what matters--whether inflation is 1% or 10%

So show some evidence that workers are directly worse off with deflation than inflation.

indigenous says

@New Renter, I have a problem reconciling your graphs with the concept that people are paid according to their productivity.

1) the productivity gains may not have raised prices of the goods. Fast food restaurants are incredibly productive but the dollar menu is still there.

Why would productivity gains raise the price of goods?

indigenous says

I don't think your graphs show total wages paid to employees. i.e. employee wages + paid holidays + paid sick leave + paid personal days + paid vacation time + employer subsidized dental/medical/vision/prescription insurance + retirement plan employer contributions + employer paid life insurance + Medicare tax + Social Security tax + unemployment tax + workers compensation tax + etc., etc., etc.

Most of these benefits have been declining as well.

indigenous says

they do not measure the specific contribution of labor to growth in output. Rather, they reflect the joint effects of many influences,

including changes in technology; capital investment; utilization of capacity, energy, and materials; the use of purchased services inputs, including contract employment services; the organization of production; managerial skill; in addition to the characteristics and effort of the workforce.”

If labor isn't productive it's eliminated rather quickly.

New Renter says

1) the productivity gains may not have raised prices of the goods. Fast food restaurants are incredibly productive but the dollar menu is still there.

Why would productivity gains raise the price of goods?

Misspoke, meant to say price of labor.

New Renter says

Most of these benefits have been declining as well.

How does that effect the graphs?

New Renter says

If labor isn't productive it's eliminated rather quickly.

Not the point.

New Renter says

Too much government meddling:

Telling two consenting human adults can and cannot do in the privacy of their own bedroom.

Marijuana laws

To little government meddling

Goldman Sachs and the rest of the gang.

Exactly. Keep in mind that no laws were needed, just enforcement of existing laws. GS committed clear cut fraud for which joe 6 pack would go straight to prison. But the rule of law was abolished by the administration.

mell says

GS committed clear cut fraud

What did they do?

indigenous says

mell says

GS committed clear cut fraud

What did they do?

Sold toxic investments to clients as "prime" and "safe" while knowing they would blow up shortly thereafter, even bragging in emails about it (referring to them as "junk" or similar). It doesn't matter what rating they had, you cannot sell a car with a perfect carfax record if you have inside knowledge that it is in very bad shape and will break down shortly. This will get you straight to jail. Yet, nobody was prosecuted, ergo the rule of law was abolished. Placeholder was the perfect lapdog to preside (or better not preside) over this.

indigenous says

mell says

GS committed clear cut fraud

What did they do?

JPM did that too - look up "sack of shit" with jpm.

sbh says

Clearly the market is too free then. We need more regulation and oversight.

No, you just need to apply existing laws. Otherwise the new laws will affect the small fish only and make things worse, same for too cryptic/long laws. There is no leeway in this, if you have knowledge something is shit you have to disclose it. Also keep in mind that not only weren't the laws enforced, the offending institutions were bailed out from going bankrupt, rewarding criminals who should be in jail with continued multi-million dollar bonuses. How's that for a good slap in the face?

sbh says

Clearly the market is too free then. We need more regulation and oversight.

That is what you got out of that? I get corrupt crony capitalism that deserves the AF treatment.

More robots, more productivity gains ?

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/293061/rise-of-the-robots

New Renter says

So show some evidence that workers are directly worse off with deflation than inflation.

See 1930s. That's deflation.

bgamall4 says

Last time they laid off employees who were needed, in order to pay the debt.

I doubt it. If they laid off employees that were needed, their profits would go down and they would pay off debt more slowly.

mell says

Sold toxic investments to clients as "prime" and "safe" while knowing they would blow up shortly thereafter, even bragging in emails about it (referring to them as "junk" or similar). It doesn't matter what rating they had, you cannot sell a car with a perfect carfax record if you have inside knowledge that it is in very bad shape and will break down shortly. This will get you straight to jail. Yet, nobody was prosecuted, ergo the rule of law was abolished. Placeholder was the perfect lapdog to preside (or better not preside) over this.

It's not that simple. I agree that they should have been prosecuted, but it's far from a slam dunk case.

A good lawyer can easily make a case that it's not fraud if they have an outside ratings agency certify the risk-regardless if the broker disagrees. That's why those agencies exist--to get an "unbiased" certification of risk so that the brokers can't screw you.

IMO--the ratings agencies ought to be prosecuted as well.

tatupu70 says

See 1930s. That's deflation.

And I think it's clear that the 1970s higher unemployment rate and concomitant inflation were BOTH driven by the same dynamic, baby boomers (born in the 1950s) flooding into the workforce.

We got inflation then because the job market expanded to take this influx.

We've not got inflation now because the job market is NOT expanding iike then.

shows we're "expanding" at HALF the peak rate of the 1970s.

And I put that in scare quotes since the job growth under Obama has been just getting us back to the 2007 peak still.

sbh says

I can hear Indigiot clawing at the door, but his squealing catechism just doesn't come through

That I believe...

You say deflation as if it were a bad thing???

The question is not "how much money", but "does it circulate".

With deflation the money moves slower because everyone wants to hang-on to it.

And this is a self-reinforcing mechanism.

2% of inflation just nudges people to spend or invest, both of which help.

The problem with "printing money"/QE is that it is done in a way that doesn't create inflation or extra circulation of money. It's just added cash that sits idle in accounts. Which is why Japan is falling back in recession and why recovery is so slow in the US.

It's so obviously wrong that it's hard to think it's not deliberate.

It's wrong to say deflation helps lenders, inflation helps debtors:

Interest rates compensate for either deflation or inflation, unless it is somehow unexpected in the market, which is unlikely.

Heraclitusstudent says

2% of inflation just nudges people to spend or invest, both of which help.

Not if they think the financial system will crash again. Not far fetched, as we are reminded that the world can be pitched into another tailspin by the mere indictment of criminal bankers.

it is clear that the US and likely world financial system is a fraud, and that crimes will not be prosecuted. In such of an obvious environment, sitting on cash might be the prudent thing.

Blurtman says

Not if they think the financial system will crash again.

The system will crash again if debts go up but not wages, which comes back to "does the money circulate?". They mask deflation with asset inflation which is temporary because the real economy doesn't follow, and assets ultimately have to align with reality.

And when the system DOES crash it will be the perfect pretext to do more of the same.

This is NOT a necessary consequence of "money printing" or trying to force to inflation. This is just a consequence of THE WAY THEY DO IT. i.e. giving cash to rich people.

Look at 3 stories that speak volume about current policies:

1 - Japan falling in recession in spite of (or because) massive QE.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/17/business/international/defying-expectations-japans-economy-shrinks-further.html?ref=business

2 - Workers unclear on the concept ask the central bank for more help. Everything the central bank did provided almost no help to them. But they think an emotional appeal to a technocratic organization will help. That's the thing with QE: giving public money to the rich has never been that popular.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/15/business/economy/face-to-face-with-the-fed-workers-say-the-economy-needs-more-help.html

3 - complaints that inequality are increasing. Duh.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/17/opinion/inequality-unbelievably-gets-worse.html?_r=0

CaptainShuddup says

Deflation is the stuff "OH Happy days are here again!" is made of, for everyone that doesn't depend on what the market is doing.

Unless you depend on a job and income, that is.

Deflation is great for manufacturers that aren't in debt up to their eyeballs, or is owned and operated by private funds. They get to enjoy cheap production costs, while all of the Idiots with their heads up Wall streets ass and the Banks and Investors owns those companies, it's pure pandemonium and panic. Don't confuse your worst nightmares for everyone else sweet dreams.

The small guy has been living deflation for about 8 years now, so it's about damn time you people get some. The end of our economic hardship DEPENDS on it.

I see the US dollar, S&P and other US markets are living in a bull environment for what could amt. to several years. Anyway that’s what my eyes, numbers and understanding are saying to me. This is a sweet spot for those who can interpret the current flow of capitol cause and effect, deflation and continued low gold, silver and interest rates ranging between 2.6% - 5.25% etc.

The causes are a long list to pick from geopolitical, austerity of policy, unrest of people living in poverty, riots, wars and so on, the effect is countries around the world taking risk off the table. Their exposure is real; US companies (1% ers) are bringing assets back to the US in both monetarily and human form. Other countries are moving the money flow to the west investing in dollars and markets which will soak it up critical mass, including the bond markets.

RE median and below will likely go sideways in the range of the last high 2014 and low 2011 in general excluding high end and luxury. I witnessed many median home sellers going into the RE market this season with realized losses with expectation of the buyer, buying the remainder of the sellers loss above reasonable fundamental market levels. Many of these properties stayed as seller’s home or rental and some having to go back threw the process of finding new renters.

Gold, silver and digital currency will continue to fall to lows most can’t come to terms with in the same regards as the bull rally in the dollar.

Price in the Dollar stabilizing above the high of 88.70 will be a 2nd stage confirmation and the odds are heavy we will not see the dollar (DXY) below 85 for an extended length of time although it maybe tested. This will provide some long term opportunity for currency trading and investing.

All I see is opportunity and and have plans to participate.

tatupu70 says

New Renter says

So show some evidence that workers are directly worse off with deflation than inflation.

See 1930s. That's deflation.

Correlation does not imply causation.

New Renter says

Correlation does not imply causation.

Sure it does.

New Renter says

Correlation does not imply causation.

You're actually correct about that--deflation is a symptom of lack of demand as is unemployment. Not sure you'll care when you're in the soup line though.

Graybox says

This is a sweet spot for those who can interpret the current flow of capitol cause and effect, deflation and continued low gold, silver and interest rates ranging between 2.6% - 5.25% etc.

Exactly.

You need a strong deflationary gravity so you can pump so much money into the market without creating inflation. Inflation would cause rate rise and ravage the market. They just have to keep the sweet spot going until....

Correlation can have many parts not always visible, calculable or a sure bet. At best it can be included as part of the odds factor as a forward indicator. However kind of like the warning "Past performance is no guarantee of future results.". Price and the ability to interpretate is the golden ark as it were.

The world is in a risk off environment thus the cash flow to the west. More than likely much of it will go to more liquid markets such as equity markets rather than hard assets such as RE median homes and less.

The Sweet Spot USA is situational and it appears to me to be in it's beginnings, critical mass will eventually pop the bubble but will take considerable time. That will be the prime time and sweet spot concerning RE, metals and int. rates. Whomever might have their bets in that corner at this time I believe will be sorely disappointed.

I maybe mistaken but I think the money is in 1st position not deflation or correlation. The demand for the dollar is at the forefront, which markets 101 say that causes dollar strength and the ability to buy more junk we don't need for less.

tatupu70 says

New Renter says

Correlation does not imply causation.

You're actually correct about that--deflation is a symptom of lack of demand as is unemployment. Not sure you'll care when you're in the soup line though.

...and again with the fear mongering.

Graybox says

The world is in a risk off environment thus the cash flow to the west. More than likely much of it will go to more liquid markets such as equity markets rather than hard assets such as RE median homes and less.

The Sweet Spot USA is situational and it appears to me to be in it's beginnings, critical mass will eventually pop the bubble but will take considerable time. That will be the prime time and sweet spot concerning RE, metals and int. rates. Whomever might have their bets in that corner at this time I believe will be sorely disappointed.

I maybe mistaken but I think the money is in 1st position not deflation or correlation. The demand for the dollar is at the forefront, which markets 101 say that causes dollar strength and the ability to buy more junk we don't need for less

WTF?

New Renter says

WTF?

It's okay your on the right side by renting your home. Just don't tell me your buying fist loads of gold and precious metals, otherwise you will definitely have cause to inquire WTF....

New Renter says

and again with the fear mongering.

Sorry-some things are scary and deflation is one of them. If you look through my posts, I think you'll find I'm a generally optimistic sort, but there's not really anything to celebrate in a depression.

tatupu70 says

there's not really anything to celebrate in a depression.

At a human level, a depression can be a good thing. Less greed, more time talking to your neighbor (in bread lines), and a general refocus on the things that really matter.

Though of course there are jumpers too.

To God, all things are good.

Deflation is nothing to be afraid of unless you are leveraged to the hilt, which is why the government and the banks are afraid of it.

You mutts associate deflation with the great depression but depressions and deflation are two separate things. Inflationary depressions are more common. The reason the great depression was so severe was because of the handiwork of Hoover and FDR, mostly the latter. The recession of 1921 was much more severe and was over in 18 months but again because of the two mutts...

To everyone else it is a good thing.

indigenous says

Deflation is nothing to be afraid of unless you are leveraged to the hilt...

... or you need a job to survive.

Heraclitusstudent says

indigenous says

Deflation is nothing to be afraid of unless you are leveraged to the hilt...

... or you need a job to survive.

Which is why the wealthy would love deflation--they don't need a job and they have available cash that can be used to buy assets at fire sale prices.

Heraclitusstudent says

... or you need a job to survive.

Au contraire, deflation is the natural disposition of the economy, it was the way the US rolled up until 1913.