1
0

Deflation Rearing its Ugly Head Around the Globe


 invite response                
2014 Nov 14, 12:55am   48,895 views  155 comments

by darlag   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

According to the latest figures, deflation is now perched on China’s doorstep.

In September, China’s consumer price index was up 1.6%, but its producer price index fell 1.8%. The CPI increase was its lowest since 2010.

Economic growth is also receding. It’s hard to pinpoint the exact figures, because Chinese economic data is notoriously sketchy. But in September, demand for electric power, a “bellwether for China economic activity,” fell 8.4% from the prior month, the second straight monthly decline.

“Deflation is the real risk in China,” stated the chief economist at a Hong Kong bank.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/deflation-rearing-its-ugly-head-in-subtle-and-not-so-subtle-ways-around-the-globe/

« First        Comments 129 - 155 of 155        Search these comments

129   indigenous   2014 Nov 18, 7:35am  

Heraclitusstudent says

This is why I think all this deflation fear is phony. Governments and central banks can create inflation easily if they choose to.

Not really. Even with the record QE printing of 4 trillion, it is 5% of the money supply if you include the bond market. If they pull a Japan then they might get inflation but then there would be a fine line between runaway and the 2% they are after. If it did take off the only way to reign it in would be higher interest rates which would lead to debt service consuming a huge chunk of the budget. Which would lead to Al Sharpton leading the charge...

130   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Nov 18, 7:50am  

indigenous says

Not really. Even with the record QE printing of 4 trillion, it is 5% of the money supply if you include the bond market.

Instead of printing $4 trillions and putting it in an account where it just sits doing nothing, try giving $10,000 (free of any debt) to every man woman and children in the US and see if there is still no inflation.

131   indigenous   2014 Nov 18, 7:58am  

Heraclitusstudent says

Instead of printing $4 trillions and putting it in an account where it just sits doing nothing, try giving $10,000 (free of any debt) to every man woman and children in the US and see if there is still no inflation.

That is the difference between investment and consumption, but they did not do that...

132   tatupu70   2014 Nov 18, 8:55am  

bgamall4 says

It has never kept pace with inflation, however, now they don't even try. It is a myth to think purchasing power has remained constant.

Of course it has. It's only since the late 1970s that it hasn't.

133   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Nov 18, 10:00am  

Call it Crazy says

I doubt there would be inflation, since that $10K would be spread through many parts of the economy and not focused in one area.

You think Joe 6-pack, who lives pay-check to pay check, would not go out and splurge given the opportunity, buy a vacation, a new car or an iphone?

http://www.youtube.com/embed/UW5RxOjpR8E

134   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Nov 18, 10:03am  

You are talking of people who have been programmed from a young age to BUY BUY BUY

http://www.youtube.com/embed/PRkOBgVx9Dg

135   indigenous   2014 Nov 19, 12:17am  

The point is that they gave the money to the cronies. No inflation because the money never made it to the market place.

136   tatupu70   2014 Nov 19, 12:37am  

New Renter says

The wealthy don't need a job regardless. During inflation they can just have their people invest their cash and live off the dividends, in a deflation just eh wealthy can just bank the cash.

No work required either way.

Obviously. Inflation hurts those that need a job, however.

New Renter says

As I understand it "full employment" simply means employers don't have a problem filling job openings.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment

I doubt most employers had any problem filling openings in the great depression.

I don't think you understand correctly. Do a bit more research on full employment.

137   tatupu70   2014 Nov 19, 12:39am  

Call it Crazy says

So, how do you get inflation from that?

You need to actually understand how an economy works. It's called demand/pull inflation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand-pull_inflation

138   indigenous   2014 Nov 19, 1:00am  

Call it Crazy says

Demand-pull inflation is a theory that simply does not exist in reality.

Don't tell the Ks that...

139   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Nov 19, 3:19am  

Call it Crazy says

You think Joe 6-pack, who lives pay-check to pay check, would not go out and splurge given the opportunity, buy a vacation, a new car or an iphone?

So, how do you get inflation from that?

Either it can be produced at the same cost and it's real growth or it leads to inflation.
Either way nominal growth.

140   New Renter   2014 Nov 19, 5:19am  

tatupu70 says

Obviously. Inflation hurts those that need a job, however.

So if you are unemployed under inflation your savings buy less and less. Under deflation your chances of getting a job (and the salary it might pay) get less and less.

Which is worse again?

141   tatupu70   2014 Nov 19, 5:22am  

New Renter says

So if you are unemployed under inflation your savings buy less and less. Under deflation your chances of getting a job (and the salary it might pay) get less and less.

Which is worse again?

If you have no money, it doesn't matter if prices are inflating or deflating.

But the point is that you are MUCH more likely to be unemployed under deflation than inflation.

142   curious2   2014 Nov 19, 5:26am  

tatupu70 says

But the point is that you are MUCH more likely to be unemployed under deflation than inflation.

That puts the cart before the horse. Unemployment can cause deflation, especially in subprime real estate and liar loans written to finance it. Deflation does not generally cause unemployment, except in the FIRE sector. Through decades of deflation in the tech sector, AAPL has continued to employ ever more people, both directly and indirectly. The FIRE sector tells you to fear deflation for the same reasons that the regime of Kim Jong Un tells North Koreans to fear South Korea.

143   tatupu70   2014 Nov 19, 7:20am  

curious2 says

Deflation does not generally cause unemployment, except in the FIRE sector

Of course it does. It has nothing to do with the FIRE sector, it's just Econ 101. Unless you are experiencing very high productivity gains throughout the entire economy(and it's highly competitive), deflation results from lack of demand. The same lack of demand that causes deflation also causes unemployment. And it's a positive feedback--deflation leads to unemployment, leads to more deflation, leads to more unemployment, etc.

Everyone likes to bring up a small subset of the tech sector and point to it as if the same thing could happen to the entire economy. Unless you can generate the same productivity gains elsewhere, it cannot happen.

144   curious2   2014 Nov 19, 7:31am  

tatupu70 says

deflation results from lack of demand. The same lack of demand that causes deflation also causes unemployment.

Congratulations, you've just refuted your own argument. Deflation and unemployment may be two children of the same parents, but the existence of the children did not cause the existence of the parents.

tatupu70 says

it's just Econ 101... it's a positive feedback....

No, it is neither of those things. You might believe those false assertions, having been unduly influenced by propaganda emanating from the FIRE sector, but they remain false. It's funny you mention Econ 101 though, it brings back fond memories for me, because I loved that class and got an A in it.

145   tatupu70   2014 Nov 19, 8:07am  

curious2 says

Congratulations, you've just refuted your own argument. Deflation and unemployment may be two children of the same parents, but the existence of the children did not cause the existence of the parents.

I refuted the argument I made about 50 posts ago? Really? I'm well aware that lack of demand is the root cause....

curious2 says

No, it is neither of those things. You might believe those false assertions, having been unduly influenced by propaganda emanating from the FIRE sector, but they remain false. It's funny you mention Econ 101 though, it brings back fond memories for me, because I loved that class and got an A in it.

OK--care to actually refute it? How would lack of demand not cause unemployment?

146   indigenous   2014 Nov 19, 8:16am  

It is not lack of demand it is a lack of production. Keynesian myth # 2842

Think of it like this: When Robinson Crusoe wanted to trade with Friday he first had to produce something to trade or even to consume what he had produced, right?

Somehow yous think that this does not apply to a modern economy, but it do.

147   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Nov 19, 8:46am  

indigenous says

It is not lack of demand it is a lack of production. Keynesian myth # 2842

Meeting end-demand is the goal of all production.

More like an obvious fact.

Otherwise we would pay people to dig holes with a spoon and other people to fill them with a fork.

148   indigenous   2014 Nov 19, 8:49am  

Heraclitusstudent says

More like an obvious fact.

You would think so...

149   curious2   2014 Nov 19, 8:49am  

Heraclitusstudent says

Otherwise we would pay people to dig holes with a spoon and other people to fill them with a fork.

Currently, we pay agribusiness to fatten people with corn syrup, then pay the medical industrial complex to manage the resulting diabetes. It "creates jobs," or so we are told, as people get fatter and sicker. (Conversely, actually curing or preventing diseases would eliminate jobs, so instead we convert diseases into chronic revenue models.) While productivity gains in other sectors (e.g. tech) cause prices to fall, we can count on the medical insurance sector to produce inflation every year, as legislation written to maximize revenues puts new technology to work for that purpose.

150   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Nov 19, 8:55am  

curious2 says

Currently, we pay agribusiness to fatten people with corn syrup, then pay the medical industrial complex to treat the resulting diabetes. It "creates jobs," or so we are told, as people get fatter and sicker.

Yes they also lend to people without checking their ids, and then sell you "identity theft protection". They create problems and charge you for the solution.

That's an interesting point but I'm not sure it addresses what was discussed:
- If demand slows, production slows, employment is down.
- If employment is down, demand slows.

151   curious2   2014 Nov 19, 9:01am  

Heraclitusstudent says

That's an interesting point but I'm not sure it addresses what was discussed

You're right, it was just a thought after your spoons and fork. I already addressed the OP topic, and a spurious claim about employment. Tying the two together, I would point out that GDP and other macroeconomic measures (including CPI) were developed for the purpose of generating objective data that could inform policy choices. Alas, these indicators have become fetishized at the behest of certain industries. As your spoon & fork metaphor showed, increasing "employment" does not necessarily result in value (or greater overall utility), and the medical sector amplifies that point by producing many examples of people who are objectively worse off because they produce more demand and employment. The FIRE sector mouthpieces want inflation, so they love perennial inflation in the medical insurance sector and hate deflation driven by productivity gains in other sectors.

152   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Nov 19, 10:21am  

I still think the goal of economic activity is to fill the needs.
It so happens that industries that are not exposed to international competition have been disproportionately inflated compared to those that are. Sometime with the complicity of authorities. Still we are not down to my spoon and forks example.

The fault of keynesians is to assume you can compensate a persistent problem caused by globalization: low wages, with a solution which was always meant to be temporary by nature: debt. End demand may indeed be the problem in the US, but in the long term it can only come from wages.

Plus anyway if you really want international trade, you have to deal with nations saving half of what they take in (China). If this wasn't the case, the issue wouldn't be so bad.

153   tatupu70   2014 Nov 19, 10:35am  

Heraclitusstudent says

The fault of keynesians is to assume you can compensate a persistent problem caused by globalization: low wages, with a solution which was always meant to be temporary by nature: debt. End demand may indeed be the problem in the US, but in the long term it can only come from wages.

Is that what Keynesians believe? I think that's what our politicians have foisted upon us because they AREN'T actually Keynesians at all.

154   Heraclitusstudent   2014 Nov 19, 10:37am  

tatupu70 says

Is that what Keynesians believe? I think that's what our politicians have foisted upon us because they AREN'T actually Keynesians at all.

Definitions.
What matters is how Keynes ideas are translated in the real world.

155   tatupu70   2014 Nov 19, 10:47am  

Heraclitusstudent says

What matters is how Keynes ideas are translated in the real world.

I understand what you're saying, but it seems wrong to call it Keynesian as it's not at all what Keynes advocated.

« First        Comments 129 - 155 of 155        Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste