patrick.net

This might, maybe, possibly, be the Main Reason:

Much of a market cap of a gas company is in the value of it's reserves. It wouldn't be surprising that if nat gas prices collapsed from over $13 to under $3, much of it's market cap would be wiped out.

The author knows this because he chose May 2008 deliberately for his comparison, this was the very peak of Nat Gas prices in decades; therefore he picked that time for his comparison to today, when Nat Gas prices are circling the drain.

Time for Goldman Sachs to get in and buy the reserves for a pittance, while leaving the current Gazprom shareholders with the losses. Then engineer a shortage or maybe a war or two, and presto, reserves will suddenly be worth a lot of money.

That also seems to be the game plan in Brasil, with Petrobras (PBR).

Nice work if you can get it.

Hmm, maybe it is time to buy some?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=OGZPY+Interactive#{%22range%22:%2210y%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}

Is OGZPY a real ownership of Gazprom or is it some 2nd-class stock of some sort?

The circling of the toilet continues:

Ukraine wins battle with Gazprom in contract clash
....

A three-year clash between Russia and Ukraine over the terms of a gas contract signed in 2009 has reached its critical point. In a move marking a major defeat of Russian state-controlled gas monopoly Gazprom, a Stockholm arbitration tribunal ruled in favor of Ukraine's Naftogaz, satisfying its claim to review disadvantageous conditions of the gas deal with Russia.

The arbitration rejected the claim by Gazprom to apply the so-called take-or-pay clause, which stipulates that Naftogaz pay for the annual gas supplies envisaged by the contract even if the company in fact purchased less gas than the contract terms had assumed. Gazprom demanded that Ukraine pay as much as $34.5 billion (30.6 billion euros) under this clause.
...
In a reciprocal move, Naftogaz requested a review of contractual gas prices. According to the agreement, the price Ukraine was paying for the Russian gas was bound to oil prices. As a result, during the years when oil prices were high, the gas price for the country was significantly above that for Gazprom's customers in Europe. In its claim with the court, Naftogaz demanded $18 billion in compensation for this price gap. The company also asked that a ban on re-exporting excess gas volumes stipulated in the gas deal with Russia be lifted. In its decision, the court satisfied these two claims as well.
...
Timothy Ash of BlueBay Asset Management suggested the court might oblige Gazprom to pay a significant award to its Ukrainian partner, "and I can't see Gazprom not paying." Ash also said that the ruling was rebalancing the relationship between Gazprom and its customers.

In a note for investors, Russian bank VTB Capital said the cancellation of the take-or-pay clause "looks like a loss for Gazprom, which tried to defend it as an important part of any long-term gas delivery contract." Its analysts also suggested this might have additional consequences for Gazprom's other contracts with consumers in Europe.

According to Krutikhin, the Russian gas monopoly "will have to acknowledge the existing reality." Ukraine has not been buying Russian gas for more than a year now, relying on reverse gas supplies from Europe, he noted, adding that the country "is managing well without [Russian gas]."

http://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-wins-battle-with-gazprom-in-contract-clash/a-39101679

Straw Man says

So what happened? Why is a company with the world’s largest gas reserves, operating in a country bordering China and the European Union – two of the world’s top energy consumers, performing so badly?"

It's something socialists can't understand. The value of a company, oil, gas is determined by the market.
Gassyprom does not innovate. It is dependent on the market only. Just like OPEC.
American innovative giants like Google, Apple, and Amazon rely on the best of what America offers......Capitalism.

Strategist says

Gassyprom does not innovate. It is dependent on the market only. Just like OPEC.

It's even worse: Gazprom is basically an arm of Russian government used for (misguided) political ends.

"Gazprom's defeat had been in fact "pre-programmed" by the company itself, suggested Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner with Moscow consultancy RusEnergy. In an interview with DW, he said that in 70 percent of cases over the last four years, consumers of Russian gas in Europe had succeeded in getting the terms of their contracts with Gazprom reviewed, including requirements envisaged by the take-or-pay clause. In all those cases, the Russian company made concessions in out-of-court settlements. Gazprom, however, demonstrated "an absolute inflexibility" in its deal with Ukraine, Krutikhin said.

Krutikhin believes that Russia's tough position in this case has political reasons: "What was going on in relations between Gazprom and Naftogaz is a purely political situation. Gazprom acted as the Kremlin's political instrument, and not as a normal company."

https://patrick.net/post/1316203/2018-05-24-analyst-report-predicted-that-gazprom-s-pipeline-projects-will-lose-lots-of-money-28b-to-be-exact

So sad. Damn Americans........why did they develop fracturing?

Yes, this all makes sense. Gazprom is only worth 51B while doing 100B of revenue and paying 6% dividend. Chevron is worth 245B while doing 134B in revenue and paying 4% dividend. How are those companies different again besides being located in different countries?

Oh yeah the difference is that Russian oligarchs steal all the profits and buy treasuries with them.

anotheraccount says

Yes, this all makes sense. Gazprom is only worth 51B while doing 100B of revenue and paying 6% dividend. Chevron is worth 245B while doing 134B in revenue and paying 4% dividend. How are those companies different again besides being located in different countries?

The investors obviously think it matters. If you don't think it matters, the stock price must be undervalued. You should buy some stock.

US considering sanctions on Nord Stream 2 firms: report

An American official has said that the United States is considering imposing sanctions on multinational corporations taking part in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, according to a report.

Kurt Volker, the US special representative for Ukraine, has told a press conference that, while no decision has been made so far, there is an ongoing debate in the United States on whether sanctions should be introduced, Poland’s wpolityce.pl news service reported.

It quoted Volker as saying that potential sanctions would hit European corporations working with the Russians and adding to Europe’s dependence on Russia for energy.

Europe’s 'energy security and stability' at stake

The US State Department spokeswoman said in March that the US government opposed Nord Stream 2 as the project would undermine Europe’s energy security and stability.

Heather Nauert told a news conference at the time that companies engaged in the construction and financing of the pipeline “could expose themselves to sanctions” under a US federal law known as the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

At a department press briefing in Washington, Nauert said that “firms that work in the Russian energy export pipeline sector could – if they engage in that kind of business, they could expose themselves to sanctions under CAATSA.”

She added: “As many people know, we oppose the Nord Stream 2 project; the United States Government does. We believe that the Nord Stream 2 project would undermine Europe’s overall energy security and stability.”

Nauert also said that the project -- which would carry gas from Russia to Germany while bypassing Poland and other countries in its region -- would provide Russia with “another tool to pressure European countries,” especially Ukraine.

“We’ve seen that – what Russia has done in the past, when they’ve turned off the pipeline in the middle of winter, causing some families to not have heat ... and we think that that is simply wrong,” she said.

According to reports, work has officially begun to build the German section of the contested gas link.

Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine all oppose the Nord Stream 2 project.

Five Western European energy firms at risk of sanctions?

According to wpolityce.pl, the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act could hit five Western European energy companies that have announced plans to pick up half the tab for building the pipeline.

These companies -- ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and Wintershall -- have decided to lend Russian gas giant Gazprom USD 950 million for the construction of Nord Stream 2 and have recently extended the repayment period until 2035, wpolityce.pl said.




http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/364463,US-considering-sanctions-on-Nord-Stream-2-firms-report

I don’t know, Democrats sure bash it daily like it eats children or something.

Strategist says

So sad. Damn Americans........why did they develop fracturing?

HEYYOU says

Burn million year old carbon quickly,no consequences.

OK you have a point. My point is.....If you MUST burn fossil fuel, lets burn American fossil fuel. Or fossil fuel from our friends.

KIEV, Jun 19 (PRIME) -- Ukrainian energy holding Naftogaz Ukrainy has received an approval of the Commercial Court of London to freeze assets of Russian gas giant Gazprom in the U.K. under a previous decision of the Stockholm arbitration court, CCO Yury Vitrenko said on his Facebook page on Tuesday.

“We have been waiting so far for cancellation of a court of appeals decision on suspension of execution of the arbitration court’s decision in the Netherlands and Switzerland. Still, this did not block us from receiving orders of a U.K. court to freeze Gazprom assets for further enforced recovery. We have just received the orders for Gazprom,” he said.

Ukrainian news agency UNIAN reported that Vitrenko referred to a decision of the Commercial Court of London that stipulated that Gazprom has to submit a list of all U.K. and Welsh assets with a price of over U.S. $50,000 to Naftogaz Ukrainy within 48 hours after receiving the order.

The Stockholm arbitration court ruled earlier in 2018 that Gazprom must pay Naftogaz Ukrainy U.S. $2.56 billion for non-shipment of gas.

http://www.1prime.biz/news/oil_gas/_Naftogaz_Ukrainy_says_London_court_permits_arrest_of_Gazprom_assets/0/%7BD6CA1D82-8698-47AE-97E3-3C9C654690AB%7D.uif?layout=print

Hassan_Rouhani says

US considering sanctions on Nord Stream 2 firms: report

But Trump is in the pocket of Putin!!!

The MSM who never lies told me so!

Did you get this from Fox News?

Bill Imposing Sanctions on Companies Building Russian Gas Pipeline Heads to White House

Dec. 17, 2019, at 3:45 p.m.

BY TIMOTHY GARDNER

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate on Tuesday passed legislation to slap sanctions on companies building a massive underwater pipeline to bring Russian natural gas to Germany, but it was uncertain whether the measures would slow completion of the project.

The Senate easily passed the U.S. defense policy bill with language backed by Senators Ted Cruz, a Republican, and Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, imposing sanctions on companies laying pipeline for the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 project. It now goes to the White House, where President Donald Trump is expected to sign it.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-12-17/bill-imposing-sanctions-on-companies-building-russian-gas-pipeline-heads-to-white-house

If Russia hadn't bullied Poland, and others, so much, they wouldn't have to build this pipeline.

Booger says

If Russia hadn't bullied Poland, and others, so much, they wouldn't have to build this pipeline.

The idea behind these "bypass" pipelines is to open the door to full-blown attack on Ukraine. As things stand now they can't do it because the transit pipeline would most definitely be blown up in many places thus effectively ending Russian gas exports to Europe.

Booger says

If Russia hadn't bullied Poland, and others, so much, they wouldn't have to build this pipeline.

And killed a planeload of Polish officials near Smolensk...

21 December 2019
Allseas suspends Nord Stream 2 pipelay activities

In anticipation of the enactment of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Allseas has suspended its Nord Stream 2 pipelay activities.


https://allseas.com/news/allseas-suspends-nord-stream-2-pipelay-activities/

Liberal_in_blackface says

Booger says

If Russia hadn't bullied Poland, and others, so much, they wouldn't have to build this pipeline.

The idea behind these "bypass" pipelines is to open the door to full-blown attack on Ukraine. As things stand now they can't do it because the transit pipeline would most definitely be blown up in many places thus effectively ending Russian gas exports to Europe.

Because a pipeline in the Baltic can't be attacked???

Booger says

Because a pipeline in the Baltic can't be attacked???

Russians would not blow up pipeline in Baltic, but provide they have alternative means of gas transport they will blow up pipeline in Ukraine themselves (via their proxies in E. Ukraine).

rd6B says

Russians would not blow up pipeline in Baltic, but provide they have alternative means of gas transport they will blow up pipeline in Ukraine themselves (via their proxies in E. Ukraine).

What's stopping someone from attacking a pipeline in the Baltic?

Booger says

What's stopping someone from attacking a pipeline in the Baltic?

The only "someone" attacking pipeline will be Russians themselves. Pipeline in Baltic Sea brings them money, so it will not be attacked. pipeline in Ukraine becomes obsolete if there is a pipeline in Baltic, so Russians themselves might blow it up to screw over Ukrainians.

Booger says

rd6B says

Russians would not blow up pipeline in Baltic, but provide they have alternative means of gas transport they will blow up pipeline in Ukraine themselves (via their proxies in E. Ukraine).

What's stopping someone from attacking a pipeline in the Baltic?

Why attack it in the first place?

Fun fact: CEO of Nord Stream 2, Matthias Warnig, is a former Stasi agent.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nobody-see-bottom-europe-plunging-105922904.html


Nobody Can See Bottom for Europe’s Plunging Natural Gas Market
[Bloomberg]
Vanessa Dezem and Will Mathis
,Bloomberg•February 14, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- As natural gas prices across the Atlantic are flirting with their lowest level in more than two decades, European energy traders this week struck a very bearish tone at a giant industry event in Germany’s industrial heartland.

The global glut of the fuel has seen prices plunge in the U.S., Europe and Asia as a wave of liquefied natural gas hits the market. Associated gas from oil fields in North America also boosted supplies at a time when demand growth is under threat from a slowing global economy and the coronavirus.

Against a noisy backdrop of live music from saxophones and violins to pouring of beer at plush corporate stands at the E-World in Essen, more than a dozen traders, executives and analysts quizzed by Bloomberg were so perplexed by the slump they wouldn’t pinpoint a low. The bearish market was a main talking point at the event, which attracted more than 25,000 visitors from Europe and beyond.

“It is possible that gas prices in Europe will decline even further,” said Domenico De Luca, head of trading and sales at Swiss utility Axpo Holding AG. “There are a lot of bearish signals in the short term,” he said, citing full gas stores and even more LNG supply coming online in the summer.

The European benchmark slumped by almost half last year and has slid a further 27% this year to trade near their lowest in more than a decade. That comes as Asian LNG has never been cheaper and U.S. futures are near levels last seen in 1998.

The coronavirus outbreak added another layer of difficulty for gas shipments as trade patterns shifted with more LNG cargoes heading for Europe as Chinese demand dived. At the same time, the absence of any real winter in the Northern Hemisphere added even more pressure on prices.The mild weather has also left European storage sites almost full, which will translate into record low injections this summer, De Luca said. That means prices could continue to slide until they reach a point where it doesn’t make financial sense to sell into the market.

But those levels still appear some way off. Tor Martin Anfinnsen, a senior vice-president at Norway’s Equinor ASA, said in an interview that the region’s second biggest supplier had no plans to curb supplies.

“If someone is hoping for supply relief from Norway, we will have to disappoint them,” Anfinnsen said in Essen. “We will be the last ones to turn off the taps. We are far away from reducing flows.”Oil prices have also slid this year, another victim of the coronavirus, leading some OPEC members to consider deeper cuts in oil output. The group’s most important ally, Russia, is not so sure, promising OPEC an answer “soon.”

Essen is also the home of RWE AG, Germany’s biggest power producer who will receive almost $3 billion to shut its coal plants by 2038. One result of the cheap gas prices is that coal burn at power stations slumped last year. That’s good for the environment since coal is twice as polluting as gas.

Russian Gas

As the traders in Essen focused on the oversupply, one industry executive on Friday talked up the need for more gas from Russia, the region’s biggest supplier.

Austrian energy company OMV AG helped finance the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will bring Siberian fuel directly to Germany. It’s being delayed after the pipe-laying company hired to complete it was hit by U.S. sanctions.

“From my point of view, the market needs this additional gas” as domestic European supplies are dwindling, OMV Chief Executive Officer Rainer Seele told Bloomberg Television.

In the meantime, Ewout Eijkelenboom, senior consultant at Kyos Energy Consulting in the Netherlands, thinks that prices could fall until at least the summer.

“It won’t be a straight line, we will see bumps,” he said. “The LNG market is in a cycle where many projects are coming online at the same time and demand is not responding.”



=============


Note the cheap Russian whores like that Rainer Seele fuck still peddling the "need for Russian pipelines" while the market is drowning in NG oversupply.

What does this mean for the Iranian Oil Bourse? Will it still replace the USD in Energy Trades with the CoronaRenMenBi?

NoCoupForYou says

What does this mean for the Iranian Oil Bourse? Will it still replace the USD in Energy Trades with the CoronaRenMenBi?

Yeah, have been reading about this at ZH for ten years now. Soon, very soon all oil trade will be denominated in [rubles], or [dinars], or [kauri seashells], and US of A economy will die a flaming death.

U.S. Says It Has Thwarted $6 Billion Russia-Germany Gas Pipeline

Patrick Donahue and Matthew Miller
BloombergFebruary 15, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s top energy official said he’s confident that Russia won’t be able to complete the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea -- and signaled that the U.S. will press forward with its opposition to the project.

Asked about Russian efforts to circumvent U.S. sanctions on the pipeline by completing it on its own, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said “they can’t” -- and dismissed claims that project owner Gazprom PJSC will face only a short delay.

“It’s going to be a very long delay, because Russia doesn’t have the technology,” Brouillette said in an interview at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. “If they develop it, we’ll see what they do. But I don’t think it’s as easy as saying, well, we’re almost there, we’re just going to finish it.”

The pipeline, which would pump as much as 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from fields in Siberia directly to Germany, has become a focus for geopolitical tensions across the Atlantic. Trump has assailed Germany for giving “billions” to Russia for gas while it benefits from U.S. protection.

Nord Stream 2’s owners had invested 5.8 billion euros ($6.3 billion) in the project by May 2019, according to company documents.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-says-thwarted-6-billion-154551054.html

WARSAW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 30th March, 2020) Poland's state energy company PGNiG said on Monday it had won a case against Russia's Gazprom on the price for gas and now had a right to get $1.5 billion back.

According to the Polish company, "Stockholm's arbitration court had made a final ruling in an arbitral case of PGNiG against Gazprom and Gazprom Export regarding the decrease in contractual price for gas delivered by Gazprom under the natural gas sale-and-purchase contract, signed on September 25, 1996.

WOMP WOMP!

Russians reap what they sow!

rd6B says

Yeah, have been reading about this at ZH for ten years now. Soon, very soon all oil trade will be denominated in [rubles], or [dinars], or [kauri seashells], and US of A economy will die a flaming death.

Israel Shamir and Esteban or Papi Escobar or whatever his name is. Total Ayatollah Russia shills.

The pipe layer which was coming from Far East to save the dying Nord Stream 2 project has suddenly changed its destination to Port Said:





Capitulation?

(Bloomberg) -- Natural gas flows from Europe’s biggest supplier slumped after a price rout and with storage sites at above-average levels.

Flows from Russia via the Yamal-Europe pipeline that runs across Belarus and Poland to Mallnow, Germany, slumped to zero Tuesday after a sharp decline since Sunday. Shipments into Baumgarten in Austria, a major European hub for Russian gas, fell by 25% from its 10-day average.

Gazprom PJSC said it continues to use the Yamal-Europe link, with actual volumes depending on client requests. Operators Gascade Gastransport GmbH and Gas Connect Austria GmbH have not notified the market of any currently planned or unplanned works.

“Such a significant reduction in gas transit is primarily driven by weak demand in Europe amid warm winter, high levels of gas in underground storage and demand distortion due to Covid-19,” VTB Capital said in a note.

The European gas market has been watching for signs when key producers Russia and Norway will start curbing flows as an unprecedented glut keep on growing. Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe’s biggest traded market, plunged as low as 3.365 euros a megawatt-hour last week, or $40.7 per 1,000 cubic meters. Those levels indicate that the economics have deteriorated even for low-cost producers such as Gazprom.

“We note that on average Gazprom pays around $47 per 1,000 cubic meters of transit costs for pipelines other than Nord Stream, including via Ukraine, where the company has ship-or-pay obligations,” VTB Capital said.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-gas-flows-europe-plunge-120744971.html

.

Strategist says

Gassyprom does not innovate. It is dependent on the market only. Just like OPEC.

Its value is based mostly on a commodity. I agree, as Gazprom has to figure out how to become more productive or profitable.

At least it is good news for the German economy which depends a lot on Gazprom for natural gas.

.

Farewell from US Ambassador Grenell: New threat against Nord Stream 2

The United States is preparing further sanctions against Nord Stream 2.

Berlin Richard Grenell did not make many friends in Berlin, but this was never his intention. The outgoing US ambassador did not come as a diplomat, he came as a banner bearer of the America first ideology of his president Donald Trump - and so he also says goodbye.

In the usual undiplomatic tone, Grenell calls on the federal government to fundamentally rethink its policy on Russia. "Germany must stop feeding the beast while not paying enough for NATO ," he told the Handelsblatt. Grenell had already left Berlin on Sunday. He will probably never come back to Germany.

The Americans have long been bothered by German imports of Russian gas. Above all , they fought the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline with a determination that had long been underestimated in the federal government. At the end of last year, the USA managed to force a construction freeze. Your means: threats of sanction against western specialist companies who lay the pipes on the bottom of the Baltic Sea with their ships. Since then, the Russians have been trying to complete the rest of the pipeline themselves. To do this, they moved two ships to German coastal waters.

The movements of the ships "Akademik Tscherski" and "Fortuna" are suspiciously followed by the United States. Because the Americans expect the Russians to ultimately succeed in completing the pipeline. The next economic policy intervention is therefore already being planned in Washington.

Grenell met with senators and MPs last week. "Further sanctions meet non-partisan approval," he reported. "Despite the election campaign, legislation could go ahead quickly." The Americans' goal: to prevent the pipeline from going into operation, if not construction. It is still unclear what form the new sanctions would take. One possibility would be to threaten companies with trade fines who use special equipment to maintain the pipelines. Sanctions against Russian gas buyers are also discussed in Washington.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.handelsblatt.com%2Fpolitik%2Finternational%2Fostseepipeline-abschiedsgruss-von-us-botschafter-grenell-neue-drohung-gegen-nord-stream-2%2F25861262.html

Gas Surplus Is So Big That Russian Flow Cut Can’t Move EU Prices

(Bloomberg) -- The natural gas glut is now so severe that prices hardly move even when Europe’s biggest supplier curbs flows to the region.

Europe is choking with gas as demand slumped in line with the virus-stricken global economy, storage sites are fuller than usual and little respite is seen in liquefied natural gas imports even with benchmark prices near record lows.

As traders watch for signs when key producers such as Russia and Norway start curbing flows, Gazprom PJSC, which has one of the lowest marginal costs of importers to Europe, briefly reduced shipments through a key link via Belarus and Poland. Russia’s move wasn’t enough to give prices a sustainable lift.

“Natural gas demand is very weak and low prices are signaling supply must be cut,” said Trevor Sikorski, a gas analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. “Prices will stay in a range in which it pressures supplies. Cuts now are keeping prices falling further.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-surplus-big-russian-flow-040000772.html

Europe is choking with gas

Sounds like World War One again.