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I for one am totally upset for the Fed not hiking rates
I wish they had. The bond markets have already factored them in, but in the equities there continues to be uncertainties.
Will they...Wont they. Will they...Wont they. Will they...Wont they.
If they raised the rates by a token, the stock market would have rallied, and bond rates would have actually dropped.
No other typeepitaph says
Fed's decision to not raise rates when none of your indicators have been met?
1. Claims are at a cycle high,
2. LEI is at the cycle high,
3. JOLTS data, Yellen favorite blew open to a cycle high at 5.8 Million
The Only thing that isn't on their metric is CPI Inflation which is 0.20% from the Fed Target
But YTD inflation rates look better than 2% even with the importing of deflation from the world weak economies
Running over 2.5% PPI & CPI mix
The average of 2Q's GDP deflator, median CPI and core CPI: 2.43%. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1LU7 …
I wish they had. The bond markets have already factored them in,
When I saw the 2's at 80 I thought that's it
i think a lot of folks wish they actually could raise them, and a lot folks who miss the days of decades past - because there's no going back. i wonder how long it will take people to realize that the economy is like "wile-y coyote" after over-shooting a turn and running off a cliff, when he's just suspended in mid air about to realize the plunge he's about to take.
Interesting. Even if growth is North of potential, it can still be weak. More growth would be needed to have a positive impact on employment.
No matter what, this recovery is the weakest recovery ever. Very disappointing.
As I said before....there is no strong recovery, without a strong recovery in housing.
Logan Mohtashami â€@LoganMohtashami
Something I agree with the ChickenHawk
#FED
http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-a-stronger-housing-sector-isnt-boosting-the-u-s-economy-that-much-1441646534
Why a Stronger Housing Sector Isn’t Boosting the U.S. Economy That Much
It took me 3 years with my charts but I finally got the WSJ to call uncle last year when they wrote this has been the worst Recovery post 1980
It took me 3 years with my charts but I finally got the WSJ to call uncle last year when they wrote this has been the worst Recovery post 1980
The recovery is pathetic at best. I expected a much better economy by now.
I squarely put the blame on ultra tight mortgage lending. Housing is one of the largest sector of the economy, and we must get it moving. The longer it takes housing to recover, the greater will be the housing boom, and more chances of a bubble. OC median prices could easily jump 50% by 2020, to $1 million.
It took me 3 years with my charts but I finally got the WSJ to call uncle last year when they wrote this has been the worst Recovery post 1980
The recovery is pathetic at best. I expected a much better economy by now.
I squarely put the blame on ultra tight mortgage lending. Housing is one of the largest sector of the economy, and we must get it moving. The longer it takes housing to recover, the greater will be the housing boom, and more chances of a bubble. OC median prices could easily jump 50% by 2020, to $1 million.
As always, I have been posting these chart for 6 year
The mathematical demand curve for these price homes is little, even working off a 230K low base, 7 years into the economic cycle you're fighting to get 500K total K sales
Why would mortgage buyers over pay for a new home when there is a 80 - 100K gap in median prices
The people who were saying the demand curve would be strong are missing 8 million home buyers in this cycle now... where are they?
Renting
Diana Olick â€@DianaOlick
#Mortgage lending standards easing according to new @FannieMae survey http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-and-analysis/mortgage-lender-survey.html …
They weren't tight in the first place and I am reading its' not tight anymore
Lord have mercy on their souls
They weren't tight in the first place and I am reading its' not tight anymore
That is where we disagree.
Lord have mercy on their souls
:)
That is where we disagree again. Atheists have no souls.
That is where we disagree again. Atheists have no souls.
You know my degree was in history and senior thesis on the crusades :-)
On another note, we are doing bank statement loans now for high net worth and high cash flow buyers
On another note, we are doing bank statement loans now for high net worth and high cash flow buyers
Tell me more.
On another note, we are doing bank statement loans now for high net worth and high cash flow buyers
Tell me more.
Why are you upset about the Fed's decision to not raise rates when none of your indicators have been met?
LEI I was talking about
JOLTS
Claims
No time in American economic history post WWII we had these numbers on these 3 key reports and have rates at Zero when core inflation YTD is over 2% and the massive importing of deflation comes from one trick pony economies and those we a debasing currency
The best part is that the world is begging us not to raise rates, like a dog... pathetic
World economies have a demographic issue we don't have that problem here with our young work force coming on line in a few years
So I AM PISSED, their language was even worst
This is Yellen to me now
She is, IMO, an evil woman.
I was only talking about her looks
The entire FannieGate thing is a giant fraud I always get into twitter fights with that group
Strategist, I believed the stock market would rally if they DONT raise rates.....I was surprised to see that the stock market did not rally.
Do you mind explaining why the stock market would have rallied if they had raised rates?
Guidance and wording of global concern is new now and it's another reason why I hated that Fed meeting, one of the worst Fed meeting I have seen since I have been in finance dating back to 1996
Market should sell out because if you raise a freaking quarter when ECI wage inflation was back where it was in 2004 when the F.F. was at 1% then the Fed is saying the economy isn't strong enough to handle a .25%
If they raised the rates by a token, the stock market would have rallied, and bond rates would have actually dropped.
Strategist, I believed the stock market would rally if they DONT raise rates.....I was surprised to see that the stock market did not rally.
Do you mind explaining why the stock market would have rallied if they had raised rates?
1. Not raising the rates indicates a weak economy still in need of help. Especially after months of claims by the Feds of an improving economy.
2. Uncertainties are now sky high. Wall Street hates uncertainties.
3. The stocks rallied right up to the Fed announcement, on expectations of interest rates being raised.
Nevertheless, this is wall street. Some major signs of an improving economy, and the stocks will start rallying again.
He said banks cannot pay the interest
Ehhh, what about all the variable rate business loans? A fed hike would allow banks to increase their interest take on these loans. Also, cash deposits are at a record high, so banks have no incentive to pay higher rates to depositors even if there is a modest rate hike.
Here was my case for why America can take a rate hike
1. LEI is at cycle high
2. Claims are at a historic low
3. JOLTS data line shows 5.8 Million Job openings
4. Prime working age is at 81% with a missing of 2.8 million Americans from that group at the peak of 2007 and with JOLTS
at a opening of 5.8 million it's a Skill gap mismatch as college grads are at a 2.5% Unemployment
5. ECI wage inflation is basically where it's at when the Fed raised rates back in 2004 and back then we had 1% Fed Funds
See YTD wage inflation pressure
Average weekly earnings in the private sector in San Francisco are up 9.6% YoY: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1SD4 …
Average weekly earnings in Detroit up 5.7% YoY: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1SDa …
Portland? Up 9%: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1SDb …
Seattle up 7.6%: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1SDf …
Boston up 7.3%: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1SDg …
One of the few times I agree big time with a Fed Member
Bullard: The case for policy normalization is quite strong since FOMC objectives have essentially been met http://bit.ly/1Mj7jdA
This slight cool down in MI2MP is actually bullish for new home sales, either due to make up shift is different or discount on top
Obviously we don't have the same back drop in terms of demand and fake demand like we had in the housing bubble, but bigger homes are great for profits bad for affordable crop
Unlike existing homes, new homes market is a 90% mortgage market place running at 500K Sales, so the market place to effective rate inflation impact would be seen there.
This is a reason we have seen a cool down in new home sales this from the start and running on 5 months of negative revisions and 2015 will be the 3rd miss new home sales year in a room unless we get a 574K print in every report until the end of the year
"bumps out the back" a surfing term used for a set of waves coming in. we're almost done the second bubble, but the builders in my location are still doing the estate homes in the gated communities into at least next year. 4000 to 5000+ sqft i doubt they will be discounted but we'll see.
"bumps out the back" a surfing term used for a set of waves coming in. we're almost done the second bubble, but the builders in my location are still doing the estate homes in the gated communities into at least next year. 4000 to 5000+ sqft i doubt they will be discounted but we'll see.
That ratio chart above I believe it's used for existing homes which is much cheaper than new homes,
CA has been heavy this cycle for Luxury apartments. However, CA does have some major dual income factor model home buyers meaning people making over 190K combined income.
My client base is between 128K -343K with a bulk in to 179K- 257K, so those people can afford homes and this is taking out a lot of the foreign buyers out of the equation.
I know my parents home that we have been trying to sell at 1,945,000, we had no luck this season, even though our next door neighbors sold their homes for 2.5 and 2.45 million... both foreign buyers and both cash
In the past 20 years the Fed's favorite inflation metric, the PCE price index, has been below 2% half the time.
Obviously we don't have the same back drop in terms of demand and fake demand like we had in the housing bubble, but bigger homes are great for profits bad for affordable crop
Home builders cater to whatever demand there happens to be. High end buyers tend to have more down payments, higher incomes, and better credit.
Buyers on the other end of the spectrum are not getting the loans they deserve. When that changes, builders will build lower priced homes.
I also don't see anything close to a housing bubble in the face of an accumulating housing shortage.
I also don't see anything close to a housing bubble in the face of an accumulating housing shortage.
Inventory for new homes is at 5.4 months
Sales demand curve is terrible in this cycle, I always give the builders super kudos for not mass building single family homes, they knew always the demand curve was for renting.
This was a great idea for the builders
If people can't buy, they will rent. Housing demand in terms of units is always a function of demographics.
I think renters who would rather own, but can't, are victims of post crash lending practices.
This is very unfair to those who want to own, but can't. Forced to pay higher rents, forced to watch home prices rise. Stuck in the middle.
If people can't buy, they will rent. Housing demand in terms of units is always a function of demographics.
Very true, hence why we have a renting cycle, that won't change until years 2020-2024. The best thing to do is cool down the rental inflation.
On that note the builders have their first rental community which ever new home they built is a rental, which is a first I believe with single family homes
Zillow: US home values up 3% over the last year, but 28% of homes saw values go down http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137190 …
As always many different Price Index for housing
Very true, hence why we have a renting cycle, that won't change until years 2020-2024. T
Partner, just 5,4,3,2 years ago, you ranted on and on about the "fakecovery"… Graph after graph disputing housing markets recovering…
In reality, what happened? prices went flying up everywhere!
Literally EVERYWHERE!
Soooo, why do you continue making predictions about the future, given that EPIC FAIL!!!!???
You couldn't see the biggest market movement in history, staring it in the face, with all your graphs and data. Yet still, you think your opinion is relevant???
Let's look at some of your past "wisdom"
http://loganmohtashami.com/2011/12/14/housing-emperor-exposed/
http://loganmohtashami.com/2011/04/http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/03/09/housing-zombies-last-stand/http://loganmohtashami.com/2012/04/02/housing-actions-speak-louder-than-words/
Anybody listening to your advice then, and not buying a home made the mistake of a lifetime. You couldn't have been more wrong if you tried!
Partner, just 5,4,3,2 years ago, you ranted on and on about the "fakecovery"… Graph after graph disputing housing markets recovering…
In reality, what happened? prices went flying up everywhere!
Literally EVERYWHERE!
Soooo, why do you continue making predictions about the future, given that EPIC FAIL!!!!???
You couldn't see the biggest market movement in history, staring it in the face, with all your graphs and data. Yet still, you think your opinion is relevant???
Let's look at some of your past "wisdom"
As always, after Spring of 2012 when inventory came below 6 months, ever single Housing prediction article for the year had price gains
You can be my guest at look, Every housing prediction article for the year has price gains, all of them as the model is very simple
Under 6 Months and lack of distress sales to conventional sales, always price again. :-)
So your thesis is flawed and by looking at your article you picked out I can see why, really went back too didn't you and forgot to add all the price gain predictions
Clever, but that only works on the novice... good try though
"You couldn't see the biggest market movement in history, staring it in the face, with all your graphs and data. Yet still, you think your opinion is"
On this, to my knowledge not one person that I know of on wall street or the economist that even I have talked to had the thesis that this cycle wouldn't have enough qualified home buyers in America.
Per the evidence that the mortgage demand not only has been the weakest on record, it will go down in American economic history as the worst adjusted to popualtion demand curve from main street ever recorded at the lowest interest rate curve post WWII. Which my lord was my core thesis for 6 years, and still to this day, that has held up at the number #1 housing call of this cycle.
Evidence #1
Evidence # 2
If you take out the 20% cash buyer metric roughly been 1,000,000 extra homes bought with cash 20% above historical norms
the net demand curve for existing homes even in 2015 is actually not that much from the Great Recession lows
Evidence # 3
Even with the biggest collapse of net sales for new homes, this has been the weakest recovery ever recorded on the demand that has ever been taken
Anybody listening to your advice then, and not buying a home made the mistake of a lifetime. You couldn't have been more wrong if you tried!
I always found this amusing, since I work in the mortgage industry which would mean I am working in an industry in which I tell my clients to not buy a home. I have found this to be very funny, it's been a favorite of one particular person. So, to this particular person , your sentence structures hasn't changed in 5 years. However, I do admire your passion and logic. Notice that after Spring of 2012 every single price gain was positive. However, if that was the only thesis used to show a housing market strength , then housing bubble in itself was great housing market every recorded. However, price isn't the only variable as we can see in this cycle, supply means more to pricing that strong demand.
The beauty is that I can't hide behind a fake name, I have to bring the data, which has to be correct, because if it wasn't no body would care
But
Lets take a look at who cared over the years
CNBC
Countless times over the years
https://www.youtube.com/embed/o9O_FDLPdgA&t=10m35s
Bloomberg
Tons of interviews over the years
The only person asked to speak at the BNY mellon Stock Conference for Housing economics back in December at the Ritz ;-)
Social Media Star Article 2014
Even when the Fed didn't hike rates, who do they ask to comment?
University Of Chicago Booth Conference talking about Housing economics a
Even the UCLA Anderson Housing Conference :-)
So, I understand why you have to be the troll, I understand the appeal hiding behind a fake name, making a false narrative to get a little tickle, I 100% get that
So, please, keep this up, everyone has to have their troll followers and to you who says the same sentence I think for years now....
If you want an autograph just let me know where to send it buddy
In front of City Hall, one of the articles they wrote about me ;-) I got nothing but love for ya, because in the end
Math, Facts and Data wins out over any troll, and that's why if you google my name and google your real name, nobody is going to know who you're.....
If you want an autograph just let me know where to send it buddy
Damn...blastfrompast got schooled.
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http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/09/10/the-fed-rate-hike-and-the-housing-impact/
#housing