US Presidential Election 2016: Without Precedent; Beyond Prediction
invite response
2016 Jan 23, 12:04pm 4,371 views 10 comments
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Tenpoundbass
2016 Jan 23, 12:23pm
All of that other talk was pure BS Trump has got this and it's nothing but predictable.
I like how the Liberals are all standing out side the wood shed listening to Trump take those amatures to school and wearing their asses out with old hickory spanking it red. The Demcorats are laughing at every yelp. Just OBLIVIOUS to the fact that it's their asses getting a whooping next.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Jan 23, 12:30pm
Sometimes the insurgent even wins the nomination, as did George McGovern in the Vietnam-tormented year of 1972.
And this year’s race is now far closer than the perfunctory coronation of Clinton which seemed likely even two months ago. Sanders might well prevail in Iowa and New Hampshire. More often than not however, the insurgent ultimately loses, and that is the expectation this time.
Just to nitpick the author, the current Democratic President was an insurgent who came from behind against Hillary. Hillary is losing steam to Bernie faster and earlier than when she eventually lost to Obama in 2008.
Hillary might be losing, because her whole history is outflanking from the right. But the Democrat base has gone leftwards.
turtledove
2016 Jan 23, 12:47pm
All of that other talk was pure BS Trump has got this and it's nothing but predictable.
You must have missed that part of the article that said that Trump's message is not only appealing to republicans, but also a large strata of the population. The point of the article is that the American voter has declared mutiny against the established political power. And, whether you want to admit it or not, is precisely the sentiment that has allowed Trump's rise. American voters appear to want the anti-candidate because they are so sick of the BS of the previous decades that have led us to where we are now. Can't say I disagree.
Trump has got this and it's nothing but predictable.
Perhaps, at the moment. But a lot can happen between now and the summer... and if he wins the nomination, between the summer and November. I wish Trump all the best. I truly respect him for being hated by the right and the left. I never expected to like him as much as I've grown to... But it ain't over until the fat lady sings. Hillary isn't going to just roll over and play dead. Neither is Bernie. Neither is Cruz. And neither are the established powers. Trump still has his work cut out for him.
turtledove
2016 Jan 23, 12:51pm
Hillary is losing steam to Bernie faster and earlier than when she eventually lost to Obama in 2008.
I hope you're right. I would love it if she lost the primary to Bernie. She is such a liar. At least Bernie believes what he says. I'm not buying his brand of socialist utopia, but at least when he's up there, I feel that he's talking from the heart... and not just trying to slime his way into office. Unlike Hillary whose beliefs change with the situation... That whole, "define the word 'it'" mindset is NOT what this country needs.
Tenpoundbass
2016 Jan 23, 1:44pm
... But it ain't over until the fat lady sings.
That's for certain, but it seems that the fat lady in this case has a contract engagement at the national Politcal Opera.
As long as he keeps singing and doesn't hit a sour note, he'll do fine. Regardless what ever mud he gets dragged into to finish a cat fight. That's not the dirt that will sink Trump.
If Trump has to start giving details of how he will make America great again. Regardless how great it sounds in theory to 99% of the voting population. IF there's the slightest thread hanging on that suit, they'll pull it until he stands naked and accused of rape. He should keep a tight lip on his policy rather more so than how he's been explaining it so far. There are still waaaay too many Idealist and the truth of the matter is. If they knew how roast beef got on the table they would swear off Roastbeef sandwiches. Even if they've eaten one everyday of their life. Most of those people would just switch to Ham sandwiches. Oblivious to how ham got on the table.
Ceffer
2016 Jan 23, 1:50pm
I can't wait til they start slinging the REAL dirt. Right now, they're just warming up their pitching arms.
Tenpoundbass
2016 Jan 23, 1:51pm
I hope you're right. I would love it if she lost the primary to Bernie. She is such a liar.
I have mixed feelings. I would like to see Trump tear her apart, and in the event Trump has a massive heart attack ala Andrew Breitbart style,after the primaries. This country would be royally fucked if Bernie got in.
I'm quite Certain that a Red America would conflict with ideologically with the rest of the Red World. More so than the understanding that Capitalist America and the rest of the Red world came to agreement and found ways to geopolitical exist.
A Red Socialist America ran by a Democrat congress would have China, Russia, and Cuba pointing nukes at us. Bernie would tax us all 90% to tell those socialist countries how it's done. And I don't think those Establishment clowns in those countries plays Comrade politics in a Mother Jones arena.
turtledove
2016 Jan 23, 7:41pm
He also has to make sure he doesn't have a Robert Kennedy moment.
He should probably shy away from saying things like this, too:
U.S. Republican front-runner Donald Trump expressed confidence on Saturday that he could push back attempts by his rivals to knock him off his top perch, saying he could stand on New York's Fifth Avenue "and shoot somebody," and still not lose voters.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSMTZSAPEC1NFEQLYN
Makes him sound like a pompous ass. If he's undone, it will be by virtue of his need to express every thought that enters his mind. He's going to have to get a filter if he's going to survive the next 9 months.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Jan 23, 7:56pm
I hope you're right. I would love it if she lost the primary to Bernie. She is such a liar. At least Bernie believes what he says. I'm not buying his brand of socialist utopia, but at least when he's up there, I feel that he's talking from the heart... and not just trying to slime his way into office. Unlike Hillary whose beliefs change with the situation... That whole, "define the word 'it'" mindset is NOT what this country needs.
http://www.ibtimes.com/hillary-clinton-losing-bernie-sanders-faster-she-did-barack-obama-2266217
US Presidential Election 2016: This is an election without precedent, its outcome beyond prediction
--- After months if not years of speeches, sound bites and shadow boxing, the race for the White House now gets serious with the first primaries a week on Monday. One thing is clear: voters are demanding something different – although heaven knows what ---
There are status quo elections. There are watershed elections. And then there’s the US election of 2016 which defies all categorisation. A Manhattan property tycoon-cum-reality TV star may become the most powerful man in the world; an avowed socialist could take charge in the spiritual home of capitalism. Americans might witness the first truly open nominating convention in 40 years, possibly even the break-up of a once great political party. And 2016 could produce – how banal the thought now seems – the country’s first female president.
So what is going on? The formal calendar is the familiar one, starting in nine days time, when voters in the state of Iowa, small, white, rural and as unrepresentative as they come, take part in the caucuses that kick off election year. Then come votes in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, followed by an accelerating cascade of primaries. July brings the conventions. And finally the big day, 8 November, when America will choose its 45th president, a routine 18 months or so since the first candidacy was declared. But normality ends with the calendar – for the Republican party at least.
Democrats have not been immune to the turmoil, but their contest thus far follows a familiar pattern. Not for the first time, an establishment candidate – in this case Hillary Clinton – is under challenge from the left, in the person of Bernie Sanders. Sometimes the insurgent even wins the nomination, as did George McGovern in the Vietnam-tormented year of 1972.
And this year’s race is now far closer than the perfunctory coronation of Clinton which seemed likely even two months ago. Sanders might well prevail in Iowa and New Hampshire. More often than not however, the insurgent ultimately loses, and that is the expectation this time.
The Republican battle however is in completely uncharted territory. The ordinary voter has risen in mutiny. The Republican elite, of Congressional grandees, rich donors, and national and state party bosses, has utterly lost control of events. The direction of the party, even its very existence, are in question.
So how on earth did it come to this?.... more
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/us-presidential-election-2016-this-is-an-election-without-precedent-its-outcome-beyond-prediction-a6828386.html