patrick.net

I haven’t gotten that “artistic” quite yet.

Van Gogh is my favorite painter. But I am not going to cut off any of my body parts yet (except hair).

Did you guys see MarinaPrime's example? If the high end is so crazy and the median price of SF is still pretty much the same, I cannot start to imagine how bad the lower end has become!

One other thing people forget is that the early 90s California collapse happened in a FALLING interest rate environment. Properties indeed became much more affordable as demand collapsed.

Two obstacles to overcome in a falling price environment:

* lending standard will be air-tight
* prices can still go significantly lower

I was going to take the "purge" route w/MP because no one wants him around, and I'm hoping to discourage him. What do you guys think? Wait till the inevitable flame war, or just purge?

Soviet-style purge! :)

I only know that 2^25964951 - 1 (7816230 digits!) is prime. This is a mathematical truth and is not in the eye of beholder. ;)

Good Lord! What a pain in the ass. I've never seen someone so determined to be a nit wit.

Hey SactoQT, you may just want to stop deleting these. This proves ONCE AND FOR ALL what an absolute CRACKPOT this guy is.

Isn't it amazing that someone who is completely despised keeps coming back? What is this guys deal?

You just know he's going to log on at 4:00am and start posting all this crap again. _sigh_

I work in the financial district and don’t understand how anybody could actually live in that city.

I live in San Jose downtown. I do not undestand how anybody could live here. What was I thinking? Glad that I am a renter. Moving next year.

I had some friends who lived in SF and I admit, I couldn't figure out the attraction. But I'm not into the city life. I lived in West Hollywood and couldn't stand it.

Give MP his due...MP is prime...he works his ass off...diggin' all day for 1 example to make a case; A for effort, I say.
Moving right along...
My gripe, also my fear (as from prevs thread), is that irrational is now rational. Relates to this notion: since so many people fucked up (or so we all would like to think), and due to what can be crudely defined as "strength in #'s", somehow it'll all work out for "them"...and even worse: maybe they "get it", and we don't...? Is "rational" subjective???
So, the fear, the gripe, is that I got it bass-ackwards...and housing costs work up to 85% of gross income... but that's okay, don't fear...microelectronics real cheap: designed here, & mfrd in china; Moore's Law stays on track, actually turns out to be conservative with industrialization of quantum computing...so much info at your disposal...plug it into your head, it pushes all the right buttons...pleasure, pain...simulated to perfection. And it's so cheap! Only 5% of gross for 1-yr subscription. You'll never have to leave your home. Grand Canyon? push this button here. Want a little romance? press here. Sweet, saucy, succulent chilean seabass at The HOUSE, de nada...green button over there.
Why the helll am I thinking about bladerunner right now???
Garcon...'nutha glenlivet, 2 cubes.

Peter P,
SJ downtown? I think it's a bit better now than, say, ~10-15 yrs ago. I actually enojoy hanging at Gordon Biersch; or parking under the old "SJ Live" (WTF street is that again?)...taking the elvator up for some s*bucks, then hittin' the IMAX, just to get all dizzy. But then, I dig pretty simple things. But yeah, it lacks that certain "je ne sais quoi"...mostly 'cause a lot of people go there w/civic inferiority complex & try to make WAY to much of it...but it's not bad if you just take it for what it is...i.e. limited expectation! JMHO.

I think it’s a bit better now than, say, ~10-15 yrs ago. I actually enojoy hanging at Gordon Biersch

I actually live one block from Gordon Biersch. :) Perhaps we can hang out sometime?

To be fair, there are nice area in San Jose (e.g. South part). But the downtown area is not too nice still. Auto insurance premium says all. Well, I guess "downtown living" is still a relatively new concept to me.

Good nite all... need to meet up with Jack and Kurt tomorrow...

As I have said, we should probably organize more activities for our "support group". :-P

Hey, I grew up in the "South part"...down the street from IBM's, err-Hitachi's, HDD facility. It's now quite expensive to live there. Live in Evergreen now...very nice, but freeway access bites.
You must be living in one of those newer high-rise complexes...3rd st. maybe?
Anyways, g'nite & enjoy the get-together tomorrow.

Hey, jbunniii, I understand the resentment a bit...& I think more people are understanding it...once people actually realize that the external craziness is causing such distress, & pressure to buy, the less likely they are to follow the herd. Hey, your post gave me an idea...how 'bout posting FICO #'s? Last time I checked, I was 803. Less debt now, so maybe a bit better.

Back on topic, my beef is “The American Way” of work, work, work, so that you can consume, consume, consume, and that as a result we live relatively isolated lives with not enough family time, socializing, community involvement, and travel to maintane balanced priorities.

Or the James Bond way, work hard, play hard, drive fast cars. ;)

(Obey all posted speed limits and traffic laws.)

Longtime reader first time poster. Peter, be proud of what you’ve created with this site, it’s the most useful compilation of info and opinions on this subject on the net.

BeWiser, Patrick created this site, I am just a guest like yourself. :)

The only truly “safe” investment is TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities). These yield a real return of about 1%.

There is no such thing as a truly safe investment. There are risks no matter how you do it.

For example, TIPS are tied to some CPI measures, which are subjected to "hedonics" and other governmental manipulations.

I guess one safer investment is to have your self sufficient ranch and your own private security force. Still, you can be robbed by your neighboring ranch with a bigger security force. ;)

When you get the chance, take a look at the ratio between house or apartment prices and median incomes in economically successful areas of Europe and Asia, and you won’t feel so bad about the situation in the Bay Area.

I'm not sure that's a fair comparison, because there are stark differences between the US and Europe, including attitudes towards housing, and how cities are structured. In dense, urban areas of Europe, the "American dream" of an oversized home are impractical. Many people prefer living within urban centers, but they don't whine about their limited space; they deal and enjoy life. What's more: housing hasn't inflated at skyrocket rates like here (I'm thinking of Germany and Switzerland) And, unless you're a country farmer, you won't typically have the land to support a large rural-style home.
Some countries have growth restrictions to preserve farmland, keeping development vertical in urban areas. Add to that--negative population growth in some EU countries.
Just my take based on living there a short time--US and the EU are vastly different.

Third world work culture and social culture runs rampant in SV.

To be fair, Silly Valley actually has Second World work and social culture. The problem is recent past success is creating a sense of complacency.

Boogieboarder-Y, if you wish to escape from certain social elements, Marin is Prime. ;)

Cars too plentiful and large for the shitbox garages.

Vehicles are just to large. It is a nuclear arm race. I need to get a big a$$ SUV next time just to be same. ;)

The thing that irks me the most is, as a person who can own his home free and clear in a prime BA neighborhood, I feel poor. I know I am worth a lot, on paper. But there is little I can do. I live here, it is not like I can cash out and move somewhere else. I thought about selling and pocketing the cash, but what if inflation hits? That means I will have to kiss goodbye the nice property tax break that I have enjoyed by being here earlier than recent settlers, and I still need to buy the same home at the same price.

The thing that many renters may not be aware of is, we owner occupiers dislike the situation as much as you do. I want to see my home appreciate in a nice steady and SUSTAINABLE way. What is the point of making paper money if all this paper money can vanish in the thin air, and you are left with a ghost town?

That said, I am still counting my blessings. At least I won't be pressured to get into the interest-only crap just to buy a beat-up home in a shabby neighborhood. Cash-rich renters out there, don't bow to the pressure of buying, protect your money well (put them in some foreign currencies), when the bad time hits, I am counting on you guys to save the BA realty market because all the recent buyers will be handing their keys over to the banks.

Forgot to mention, I'd really like to see a lot of these stupid investors go broke, because they deserve to, but I am afraid that our stupid government would have no choice but to bail them out later, with MY money and penalizing my financial prudence. Therefore, the only way I see that I can get back at them is to park all my money in non-USD betting against the USD so that these morons can only end up with worthless US pesos later.

LaColt,

it’s because everyone on this blog missed the boat on RE

Bit of a snap judgement don't you think? There are a lot of people who post here who are owners and still think the market is over-valued.

MP isn't disliked because of real life examples, he is a braggart who rarely keeps to a consistent story and doesn't keep his word. (such as when he claimed he was going to leave the blog) Many of us tried to give him the benefit of the doubt but his posts generally deteriorated into flame wars with other posters. Since the flame wars always seem to include MP it seemed prudent to kick him off. You'll notice that if other posters don't respond to him his posts become increasingly rude and provocative. In short, he's an annoyance.

What bugs me?

1. I have to get caught up in this.

2. The blame will not be put in the correct places, which are - the Fed and stupid Americans.

Finally able to meet with Jack and Kurt. Both are very nice guy. We should have more meetings. :)

Face Reality, one must be able to derive income from global assets to win the next "class" war.

My gripe is the growing population of gangbangers in my east san jose area. In the last few years the flood gates seem to have been left WIDE open for mexican immigrants.

I am pro-immigration. However, I have to agree with your gripe. From my Downtown San Jose apartment, I am blogging with police sirens in the backgroud again.

I’m seeing larger numbers of teenagers just hanging out. Many are clearly gangbangers.

I would support a curfew on teenagers in San Jose. Anyone? ;)

Inquiring mind - gosh, so bitter!

Bitter is prime. Bitter melon - delicious!

Gotta love it.

Bitter melon tastes great and it has excellent nutritious value.

Gotta love it.

Bitter is Prime

http://tinyurl.com/8c6uu

Anybody that’s making $100K+ can easily afford a condo in the Bay Area without an NAAVLP. Problem is a lot of people insist on single family homes.

Not really. A decent 2/2 condo frequently costs 600K, with 20% down one would have a loan principal of 480K, which requires household income of 160K+ under the 3X guideline.

Horizons need to be broadened. The majority of 2 bedroom condos in the East Bay are not THAT high and is sitll a resonalble commute to SV and SF.

600K is in central San Jose. A nice 2/2 condo in the Peninsula approaches 1M. If we keep broadening horizon we will be living in apartment conversions in Tracy. ;)

(2/2's in Fremont still frequently cost more than 500K, a 400K loan after 20% down still requires 133K+ income to be "conventional")

I live in a 3-bedroom, 1400 square foot townhome with attached 2-car garage in Dublin which, price per square foot, tends to be HIGHER than Fremont. Last one like mine sold for $560K.

Most Fremont condos are not that expensive. I’ve seen 2 bedroom condos in the $400Ks and some even still in the 300s.

That is a pretty good deal.

BTW, you are right, I am now seeing a lot of East Bay condos selling for 400's. :)

I like condos philosophically because I think it is a sustainable way to live. SFH's in urban or near-urban locations are not the best way to allocate resources.

hey
LeftCA to go to Azirona . . .

Hey, a good move.

Thanks for the post. It was very informative and I liked reading about your experiences in CA.
I know many on this board won't agree - because of the old "it's my town" mentallity - but I see CA degrading rapidly over the next 10 years.

You wrote . . .
"Overall, we are glad we made the move. I miss my friends the most. It is harder to make friends in your 30s than it is in your 20s."

What I've found is the older you get, the fewer friends you want/need.
So just find the right girlfriend, and that'll be most of what you need.

Good luck, and congratulations on the home swap killing.

If we keep broadening the horizon we will be living in apartment conversions in Tracy.

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P -
"A decent 2/2 condo frequently costs 600K, with 20% down one would have a loan principal of 480K, which requires household income of 160K+ under the 3X guideline."

Well yes, but under the "anything goes to make a profit and damn the long term risk" guidelines, a household income of 100k a year would be sufficient . . . .

Excuse my ignorance, but where is Dublin, and how far is the commute to San Francisco. How many miles is it? I’ve heard of Antioch, but that’s b/c i’ve heard it’s really, really far away and some people make the commute.

Dublin is quite far away for Bay Area commuter. It is in Ireland, so I guess it has an easier commute to London.

Dublin, CA is near the 680/580 junction. So it is actually pretty good for someone who commutes to East Bay work locations. I believe it also has BART. ;)

It is a bit far for Peninsular commuters like me. :(