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Too Many Bears on Patrick


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2016 May 19, 6:02pm   38,153 views  239 comments

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Unlike 2007, prime age labor force peaking won't be an issue, No crash coming!

Next recession will be very normal

No over investment thesis in this cycle

Don't get caught in the everything is a bubble mentality

#Economics

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125   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 6:12pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

am using her thesis that productivity gains was crazy high past the 1970's and no way wages could keep pace

Keep pace--that's hilarious. Real wages gained exactly ZERO. I'd say that's a little worse than "not keeping pace"

126   _   2016 May 20, 6:14pm  

tatupu70 says

Of course some do. It's a long, slow journey to feudal times. We're not there yet.

RIGHT THERE......

That's what I wanted to hear

the SERF thesis

I am going to have so much Joy in the next 20 years tearing the left thesis apart ...

It will be my pleasure

127   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 6:14pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

RIGHT THERE......

That's what I wanted to hear

the SERF thesis

I am going to have so much Joy in the next 20 years tearing the left thesis apart ...

It will be my pleasure

Unfortunately, I'll have no joy proving you wrong over the next 20 years.

128   _   2016 May 20, 6:19pm  

tatupu70 says

Unfortunately, I'll have no joy proving you wrong over the next 20 years.

Penny for all the end of America thesis since 1790

You will be a billionaires

Picked the wrong country to bet against .. our people aren't a punch of sissy cry babies begging for stuff on social media sites, some do... Our men and women kick ass

And they will prove of extreme left anti Capitalist Bernie Sanders supports which most of you're ... the educated class...

I can't wait... It will be a honor

If Roberto was here this is what he would say

Whaaaa???...there's pent up demand???..but...but..but.. Logan's interpretation of his own data refuted such analysis 18 months ago???...some people take the same data... Recognize a bottom.. And correctly interpret the demand curve as stronger as hell!!!!!!

:-) Ha Ha Ha and odd ally I admit ... but I will break down your liberal Lions and get them to Join the American Glory we are about to see with Demographics

129   Strategist   2016 May 20, 6:21pm  

tatupu70 says

Logan Mohtashami says

So people have the ability to spend then correct, the middle class did purchases goods, services and shelter

Of course some do. It's a long, slow journey to feudal times. We're not there yet.

We are moving away from feudal times, tatu. We have democracy, a population that's increasingly educated, a standard of living that is the envy of the world, and we have iPhones. What more can you want?

130   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 6:23pm  

Since when does pointing out real problems make one Anti-American? If you don't understand the problems, how in the hell can you fix them? Trying to educate folks like you is a way to fix the economy and make America great again.

Sticking ones head in the sand is not the American Way. Nobody here is begging for anything. Or crying. All I want is for people to try to understand how the economy works and which policies got us in the mess we're in today.

131   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 6:25pm  

Strategist says

We are moving away from feudal times, tatu. We have democracy, a population that's increasingly educated, a standard of living that is the envy of the world, and we have iPhones. What more can you want?

You're right. I take it all back. I'm sure all the folks with $80K in debt and working at Starbucks for minimum wage are happy as long as they have an iPhone.

132   Strategist   2016 May 20, 6:25pm  

tatupu70 says

Unfortunately, I'll have no joy proving you wrong over the next 20 years.

Tatu, you are gonna get your ass kicked for the next 20 years.

133   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 6:27pm  

Strategist says

Tatu, you are gonna get your ass kicked for the next 20 years

lol-we'll see, won't we. I hope I'm wrong.

And there's always the possibility that Americans will wake up and elect Sanders or Warren and maybe we can fix things. One can hope.

134   _   2016 May 20, 6:27pm  

tatupu70 says

$80K in debt and working at Starbucks

Starbucks employs only 200,000 at peak, and since less than 3% of Americans Debt profile have student loan debt over 100K the chances of one working at Starbucks and carrying that debt is 0.237% :-)

135   Strategist   2016 May 20, 6:28pm  

tatupu70 says

Strategist says

We are moving away from feudal times, tatu. We have democracy, a population that's increasingly educated, a standard of living that is the envy of the world, and we have iPhones. What more can you want?

You're right. I take it all back. I'm sure all the folks with $80K in debt and working at Starbucks for minimum wage are happy as long as they have an iPhone.

If I was them, I would be happy as hell. Declare BK, and all the debt is gone, but you get to keep the iPhone. Only in America.

136   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 6:29pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Starbucks employs only 200,000 at peak, and since less than 3% of Americans Debt profile have student loan debt over 100K the chances of one working at Starbucks and carrying that debt is 0.237% :-)

Very poor use of stats there Logan. You're making some really poor assumptions about the population of Starbucks workers.

137   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 6:30pm  

Strategist says

If I was them, I would be happy as hell. Declare BK, and all the debt is gone, but you get to keep the iPhone. Only in America.

Except student loan debt isn't discharged in BK. Nice try.

138   _   2016 May 20, 6:32pm  

tatupu70 says

population of Starbucks workers.

http://www.statisticbrain.com/starbucks-company-statistics/

On this note my friends, I must go over pay at Whole Pay check I bid you a good night

Jacek Malczewski. Death, 1902.

139   anotheraccount   2016 May 20, 6:32pm  

Logan, it's becoming clear from this thread that you are not "data dependent". You are just as much of an ideologist as everyone else.

140   Strategist   2016 May 20, 6:35pm  

tatupu70 says

Strategist says

If I was them, I would be happy as hell. Declare BK, and all the debt is gone, but you get to keep the iPhone. Only in America.

Except student loan debt isn't discharged in BK. Nice try.

If you have student loan debt of $80K and are working at Starbucks for minimum wage, it's either:
1. Temporary, until you get the right job.
2. Permanent, in which case you are an idiot.

141   _   2016 May 20, 6:36pm  

tr6 says

"data dependent".

All I do is post charts up! Don't make me dump every single data line post March of 2009 here

142   indigenous   2016 May 20, 6:37pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

trade show skill

do you mean the trades?

143   _   2016 May 20, 6:45pm  

Poverty sucks I agree
20 May 1506 - Explorer Christopher Columbus (aged 54), died in abject poverty in Spain.

144   _   2016 May 20, 6:56pm  

Well, thankfully no major inflation hawks were here today

Cash is sold by weight Hyperinflation in Germany, 1923

145   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 7:17pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

http://www.statisticbrain.com/starbucks-company-statistics/

On this note my friends, I must go over pay at Whole Pay check I bid you a good night

And this is why you will never understand-you don't want to learn from your mistakes.

146   FWinston   2016 May 20, 7:23pm  

I just read the title of this post and KNEW that he (or she, sorry ma'am!) wasn't talking about real bears. Now that would be funny with a capital F!

147   _   2016 May 20, 7:23pm  

tatupu70 says

And this is why you will never understand-you don't want to learn from your mistakes.

Your thesis is that Americans are becoming serfs

That this economy is so bad and so horrible that this term is being used

You already lost

I just want you all to be around when your American Horror shows doesn't happen and then we will remember

The strong fought on and the soft begged and cried and pushed fear of serfs down the Americans

This is going to be a theme of my financial writing going out for the next decade with many other people

We are going destroyed the extreme left wing ideology of Serfs

I can't wait....

Glory is for Brave, crying is for the weak you bet against thew wrong country and the wrong people

148   indigenous   2016 May 20, 7:24pm  

This could turn into a Sword of Damocles

149   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 7:32pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Your thesis is that Americans are becoming serfs

Once again--please don't state my beliefs. You usually just make a strawman that you can fight because you can't or won't actually discuss my real points.

I'm saying inequality is rising and we're very close to where we were in 1929.

Logan Mohtashami says

That this economy is so bad and so horrible that this term is being used

Nope--that's not at all what I said. I said we're on a LONG journey toward that end. Just curious--do you think demographics cause the Great Depression?

Logan Mohtashami says

The strong fought on and the soft begged and cried and pushed fear of serfs down the Americans

This is going to be a theme of my financial writing going out for the next decade with many other people

You're hilarious that you continue to try to frame it as the strong vs. the weak. You've watched way too many movies Logan. This is real life, not Hollywood.

150   Strategist   2016 May 20, 7:34pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Poverty sucks I agree

20 May 1506 - Explorer Christopher Columbus (aged 54), died in abject poverty in Spain.

Wow. If he was around in the 21st century, he would have health insurance, modern medicine to keep him alive longer, royalties, and an iPhone with GPS.

151   anonymous   2016 May 20, 7:35pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

but I will break down your liberal Lions and get them to Join the American Glory we are about to see with Demographics

there is a lot behind this. biggest generation and they prefer a house in the suburbs, SUV's, are having kids, want stability in life. we are gradually moving into a new american phase where social ideals and spiritual enlightenment will take a back seat to social order. people will take stable corporate jobs and they will consume.

152   anonymous   2016 May 20, 7:36pm  

FWinston says

I just read the title of this post and KNEW that he (or she, sorry ma'am!) wasn't talking about real bears. Now that would be funny with a capital F!

shut up, faggot.

153   _   2016 May 20, 7:38pm  

tatupu70 says

You're hilarious that you continue to try to frame it as the strong vs. the weak. You've watched way too many movies Logan. This is real life, not Hollywood.

You said Serfs and now like most extreme left wing people I know comparing today to 1929 which the economies bare very little similarities

It will be a honor destroying the serf thesis when our prime age labor force grows again and all the Mickey Mouse economic theories get crushed

And all it is

A bunch of educated Liberal on this site hiding behind their fakes names claiming American is on a awful path

It will be honor piece by piece after the next recession and recovery cycle happens....

None of the things you talk about will happen there is No Serf thesis in America this isn't the old Empires of the past

I wish I believed You liberals on this site believed in the Serfs

You would take your families and leave America and curse the great Serf empire down

Please, are you kidding

Is this the best you Liberals ...

got...

Serfs... really

154   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 7:40pm  

Wake me up when you're done with the strawman arguments. I guess they are the only ones you can win these days.

155   _   2016 May 20, 7:42pm  

Peddling Fiction

Lord did he have it right.... that's what it is Peddling Fiction

156   indigenous   2016 May 20, 7:48pm  

And the Sword of Damocles?

157   _   2016 May 20, 8:18pm  

indigenous says

And the Sword of Damocles?

158   tatupu70   2016 May 20, 8:19pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

You're basically creating a false narrative thesis that the best economy in the world with an impending prime age labor force growth is about to hit a deflationary spiral resembling old European Serf economies

And what did people think about the economy in the 1920s? Ever heard the term "Roaring 20s"?

But, of course, no parallels at all.

159   _   2016 May 20, 8:20pm  

indigenous says

The same thing occurred in the 1920s

Complete 100% different time and economy then to now

No housing market, no massive car sales, I can't believe we are even having this conversation that the economies of 1920 and similar to economic structure of today

Drinking started way to early

160   indigenous   2016 May 20, 8:20pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

2 complete different economies

Is there a similarity in the demographics, i.e. was there a lull in the population in the 30s?

161   _   2016 May 20, 8:21pm  

tatupu70 says

And what did people think about the economy in the 1920s? Ever heard the term "Roaring 20s"?

But, of course, no parallels at all.

100 Million Cars sold
40 Million Homes sold
57K median income in America today

This is borderline sociopath economic theory now

162   indigenous   2016 May 20, 8:21pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

No housing market, no massive car sales, I can't believe we are even having this conversation that the economies of 1920 and similar to economic structure of today

You are not listening, in both cases the Central bank increased the M2 before the collapse. This is the cause of bubbles.

163   _   2016 May 20, 8:21pm  

indigenous says

Is there a similarity in the demographics, i.e. was there a lull in the population in the 30s?

Prime age labor force decline happened in 2007, that was it... we are slowly growing

Lord the M's are 8 million bigger than the Boomers it's not comparable

164   indigenous   2016 May 20, 8:23pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Prime age labor force decline happened in 2007

Did it decline in the 1930s?

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