patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

No housing market, no massive car sales, I can't believe we are even having this conversation that the economies of 1920 and similar to economic structure of today

You are not listening, in both cases the Central bank increased the M2 before the collapse. This is the cause of bubbles.

indigenous says

Is there a similarity in the demographics, i.e. was there a lull in the population in the 30s?

Prime age labor force decline happened in 2007, that was it... we are slowly growing

Lord the M's are 8 million bigger than the Boomers it's not comparable

Logan Mohtashami says

Prime age labor force decline happened in 2007

Did it decline in the 1930s?

You had 30% unemployment rates and you -10% GDP back in the Depression we had real bread lines back then

This notion of 1929 Great Depression thesis right after the Great Recession... Bad Bed.. Bad Bad Bad bet

Logan Mohtashami says

100 Million Cars sold

40 Million Homes sold

57K median income in America today

This is borderline sociopath economic theory now

Again--you're missing the forest Logan. Real incomes are stagnant. Sales of existing houses mean nothing. It adds very little to the economy.

Regardless, like I said the economy was very strong in the 20s. And still we had the Great Depression.

you are not listening, I have not had a drink in a week, how about you?

tatupu70 says

Real incomes are stagnant

So with Stagnate income and we still bought 100 million Cars and 40 million homes and retail sales are at a cycle high with mortgage demand at a cycle high 2016 and this is due to stagnate income and this is a thesis for a great depression

indigenous says

how about you?

I rarely drink

Always a Great Depression fear monger if every group ...

You still aren't copying what I say, for whatever reason.

Logan Mohtashami says

So with Stagnate income and we still bought 100 million Cars and 40 million homes and retail sales are at a cycle high with mortgage demand at a cycle high 2016 and this is due to stagnate income and this is a thesis for a great depression

cycle high? That's all you've got now? So, it's not as bad as it was at the worst of the recession? Woo Hoo.

And for the 3rd time. The economy was great in the 1920s. Right before the Great Depression. So, you're theory that we can't have a depression soon because things are OK now is nonsense.

Words of wisdom from one of your liberal kin

Logan Mohtashami says

Always a Great Depression fear monger if every group ...

Not me, you are responsible for that. The King Dollar and the Demographics kill that idea. But the central bank does cause damage.

tatupu70 says

The economy was great in the 1920s.

If you read about the roaring 1920's you would realize this cycle bears nothing to it either

You guys are all off tonight

Great Depression and Serfs really

Logan Mohtashami says

If you read about the roaring 1920's you would realize this cycle bears nothing to it either

Oh, please do tell. I have read about it. What are the major differences?

Logan Mohtashami says

A 20-year collapse like Japan

Our demographics bare nothing and neither does our economies... move it out 2040's

tatupu70 says

What are the major differences?

Are you serious, honestly is this a serious question you're asking?

Regarding the Sword of Damocles, the increase in the M2 and the question regarding demographics in the 20s have been asked 3 times with no answer.

These questions are not going to be answered.

Logan Mohtashami says

Are you serious, honestly is this a serious question you're asking?

This is the question you keep dodging.

When 2020 comes and there is no Great Depression

Trust me... all I have to do is wait..

Starting from today you two I am going to spend my discussion blowing your economic non sense and Great Depression Serf economic theories

Just you two .... day in and day out

It will be my pleasure, You both have embarrassed yourselves tonight

So, no answer then?

Trying to educate lost souls like yourself is not embarrassing. Frustrating, perhaps. But not embarrassing.

Starting tomorrow

Logan vs Great Depression Serfs May 2020... we keep this thread alive that I will start tomorrow all the way ....

The foundation of big four is solid now... now we run into a stronger labor force...

But hey I will give you to 2020

BTW Friedman, Mr. MMT, was really a Keynesian. Because both believed in the demand thesis.

My demand curve thesis for housing had a demographic light patch to it from 2008-2019 but following that discipline that changes starting year 2020 and you're trying to import a weak Japan demographic thesis here when our labor force growth is going to be good.

It's not going to be a 5% GDP economy but it will be much more solid with economic output

Your 2020 is Japan Depression and My America 2020 is giving birth to a strong young labor force

That sounds about right between you and I

Ok, calling it a night my wife thinks I am flirting on line ...

Have a good night everyone sleep well! Don't let the Serf bugs bite ;-)

One of these days we all have to meet for Drinks

jazz music says

. and houses can only go up?

Home prices and inventory have a strong correlation, once inventory breaks over 6 months and we get a recession that can bring distress homes into the market then the negative pricing factor gets stronger.

Since this cycle is very clean on the mortgage front the next cycle down turn will bear nothing to housing bubble which was lead by fake demand and exotic debts that didn't create much equity.

We also don't have a cash out boom either unlike 2004-2006 that took more equity out of the equation.

Adjusting to inflation prices are still 20% below the peak of 2006

jazz music says

... and houses can only go up?

Such hubris is comical. If I were you I would hide behind an avatar and take a name like ... The Loan Arranger, ... no no no ... that is American alright, but your brand of patriotism is too shrill more like ...YES ... Baghdad Bob, That is you. Baghdad Bob's Mortgage.

It has been my honor, namaste.

@Strategist what do you think about this fucking horse shit right here? this guy needs meds, bro.

"No over investment thesis in this cycle"

the investment angle is a red herring

The crash won't be due to over investment but due to excessive debt that cant be paid back and due to inflated asset prices like stocks that don't bear any rational econmic relation to their valuations

smaulgld says

The crash won't be due to over investment but due to excessive debt that cant be paid back and due to inflated asset prices like stocks that don't bear any rational econmic relation to their valuations

That thesis could have been used from 2010-2016 and has been used as valuation have never been cheap but with low inflation and low rates the cycle had had legs and is going into it's 9 year of expansion

She is old and she can't break over 2,136 .... but the Americans bears are showing their lack of economic background..

A deflationary spiral with Americans economics it's very difficult to have with our consumption based model as technology and globalization have killed inflation

I welcome the right and left to join forces against me for the next 15 years and their massive American crash economic theories, Or U.S. citizens becoming Serfs or some deflationary spiral

Last 5 years I have studied the hard left and right and what they preconceive to be economic equilibrium to some disaster American end

I have realized that

A. Investing thesis
B. Actually don't have a background in economics or versed in economic data
C. Create False economic theories base on their own political and economic ideology back ground

This is very normal in history for the extreme left and right cry a sad river pain when they just act like Drama Queens

So, I renounce them all, every last one of them and their false death and destruction theories

We aren't Europe, Japan, South American, Russia or some desperate debasing currency exporting nation that gets punished when the dollar rise

You people picked the wrong country to bet against...

This time .... someone is going to call you both out... because once we get this recession and it doesn't creates Serfs or some titanic deflationary spiral, or some Great Depression

They everyone here will realize you were all just a bunch of story tellers that weren't versed in economic data.

This is battle I am willing to wanting to take on 2021! No Great American Depression...

Logan Mohtashami says

They everyone here will realize you were all just a bunch of story tellers that weren't versed in economic data.

You are free to have your opinion that demographics somehow override inequality. And that real wages will somehow go up as more people enter the workforce.

But don't pretend that economic data supports your theory. All the charts and graphs you've posted support my thesis. No real wage growth for 16 years. Peaks and troughs of each economic cycle are getting lower. We understand data and interpret graphs much better than you do.

tatupu70 says

. No real wage growth for 16 years. Peaks and troughs of each economic cycle are getting lower. We understand data and interpret graphs much better than you do.

Get on talking .. this is game plan for the next 15 years to show the extreme left are just as off as the extreme right

Your lack of understanding employment to population economics shows

Logan Mohtashami says

Your lack of understanding employment to population economics show

You often mistake disagreement as lack of understanding. I fully understand your thesis but believe it to be incorrect.

tatupu70 says

I fully understand your thesis but believe it to be incorrect.

If your thesis had any merit our economy would look like Europe or South America

Except Americans don't cry, Americans don't beg, We work!

I don't buy your talk, if you really believed this you have taken your family away from here and moved to Sweden

Your children and grand children becoming Serfs ... why would you ever put them through that horror?

Logan Mohtashami says

If your thesis had any merit our economy would look like Europe or South America

What are you talking about?

Logan Mohtashami says

I don't buy your talk, if you really believed this you have taken your family away from here and moved to Sweden

Huh? I'm doing fine. My children will be fine. My grandchildren will be fine. And I want to help fix this country, not run away.

landtof says

jazz music says

... and houses can only go up?

Such hubris is comical. If I were you I would hide behind an avatar and take a name like ... The Loan Arranger, ... no no no ... that is American alright, but your brand of patriotism is too shrill more like ...YES ... Baghdad Bob, That is you. Baghdad Bob's Mortgage.

It has been my honor, namaste.

@Strategist what do you think about this fucking horse shit right here? this guy needs meds, bro.

jazz music says

landtof says

@Strategist what do you think

BWA HAHAHAhahahahahaHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!

Our Shakespeare read the crisis facing Venezuela, the country that is over the cliff. He is in deep pain at the thought of his comrades being overthrown.
Eat some cake, Jazz.