patrick.net

You're all going to lose at the end ... wrong country to bet against.... bad bad bet

Ironman says

Move OUT of CA..

Net migration data ages 30-39 has be shown an outflow from CA due to housing cost.

Why is this, because people work hard and they have the ability to move to cheaper states such as Arizona and Atlanta for example.

You might not have faith in our kids, but those who work hard, finish high school, go and finish college, or have a trade show skill

Give them some credit for being productive people, they don't have the structural issues that non educated Americans have or those with a drug problem

Have some faith in your fellow Americans, and only focus on helping the poor and those who have substance abuse, they need it more than anyone :-)

Ironman says

Heraclitusstudent says

You have millions of millenials in CA that would absolutely buy a house for $300K.

Move OUT of CA.. They're are TONS of houses less than $300K that you can buy in many areas of the country..

The problem with you Millennial whiners, you want your cake and you want to eat it too.

You don't anything about me: neither my age, nor my net worth, nor where I live. It's not about me. So STFU.
You're the one whining btw. I was just describing facts about the market in CA.

Logan Mohtashami says

You might not have faith in our kids, but those who work hard, finish high school, go and finish college, or have a trade show skill

This is a straw man. This is not a question of faith in this person or that one. It's the aggregate that doesn't add up. There is a generation gap between what millenials can pay, and what boomers think they will get. The housing permanent equity elevator is dead. History will unmask the "wealth effect" as a giant centrally organized deception. The basic mechanisms that maintained the increasingly tattered veil of glittery wealth in the west are falling apart.

Which is why you can show 20 charts showing how good things are, if this is all sitting on one artificial leg and this leg breaks, then these charts mean absolutely nothing.

Logan Mohtashami says

Atlanta for example.

Anecdotally, shitload of Californians in Atlanta over last 3 years. Having said that, most of the starter level(town houses) new construction inside I-285 is now starting around 500K, which is roughly around $227/sqft. Even my area is around 165/sqft and I bought less than 3 years ago at 89/sf

Heraclitusstudent says

This is a straw man.

Everything is straw man argument when you point out that the extreme left is 100% wrong about how bad things are in America

Guys it's over

The days of you lying on this site about America is coming to an end

You had your chance of some titanic Recession that was going to bring down Capitalism in a soft demographic patch cycle

It didn't happen, none of the new normal secular stagnation thesis happened even in a light demographic patch cycle 2008-2019

Adjust your language or be prepared to deal with me and my charts for the next 20 years ...

It's not going to get any easier for you guys post recession

Best part is

Your beloved Europe had had a terrible economy since 2011 and not even their weakness dented us

You think we went from a 2 trillion dollar economy to a 19 Trillion Dollar with 1/3rd the population of China and this was luck

No way!

Incidentally I don't believe the economy will collapse tomorrow, or that a depression must necessarily happen. You may well be partly right. If anything a building boom would be very good in terms of real economy. Asset prices are an other question though. There is a difference between real economy and asset prices.
The problem is that you think you know, when in fact there are way too many factors to consider, and just a few factors can throw your nice prediction in the garbage bean. Your confidence is misplaced. The future will be very different from what we imagine. For one thing, banking and mortgage lending will probably be fully automated soon. Get on with the program.

Logan Mohtashami says

Your beloved Europe had had a terrible economy since 2011 and not even their weakness dented us

Europe is doing efforts to reform itself and this is always painful. We have every reason to think Europe will emerge stronger from this.

Ironman says

It gets really tiresome reading your daily crying sessions...

See: more whining.
Grow a pair of balls and put me on ignore.

Loser.

Heraclitusstudent says

Incidentally I don't believe the economy will collapse tomorrow, or that a depression must necessarily happen

Thank The Heavens.. See that's all I wanted to hear, everything else is fair game to talk about, we have to many end of the world types in the world

Heraclitusstudent says

Europe is doing efforts to reform itself and this is always painful. We have every reason to think Europe will emerge stronger from this.

Europe is old, it's demographic problem is in it's infancy, but Ireland and England will Fair well out of the group

Logan Mohtashami says

Europe is old, it's demographic problem is in it's infancy, but Ireland and England will Fair well out of the group

Well, we are talking of AI in an other thread. The future is to disconnect economic growth from demographics, and AI is the path. We must do that anyway as a matter of survival. People who think the world economy can continue to grow 3% a year forever are lunatics.

So Europe may well end up better off than many think, economically at least.

Ironman says

It gets really tiresome reading your daily crying sessions...

Ironman says

lose the daily entertainment of your crying sessions and delusional posts... not a chance..

Get your story straight. Moron.

Heraclitusstudent says

People who think the world economy can continue to grow 3%

The younger countries are in the east, India has a lot potential, but this century is going to be about how do countries handle their aging population and who has the younger work force to back their economies up

Logan Mohtashami says

The younger countries are in the east, India has a lot potential, but this century is going to be about how do countries handle their aging population and who has the younger work force to back their economies up

hmmmmmm. That would indicate Africa will be best situated for growth. I would bet on Asian countries.

Strategist says

That would indicate Africa will be best situated for growth.

We have saying about that

TIA

This
Is
Africa

Which means #(@#(@#@

Logan Mohtashami says

The younger countries are in the east, India has a lot potential

Really? I think this century we will find that high/dense population is more of an impediment than anything else. There are always resources that are limited. For example they have collapsing water tables and global warming will not help. They just can't expect to live like Americans are doing.
You just put too much faith in demographics. This is a problem of 2015, not 2025.

Heraclitusstudent says

You just put too much faith in demographics.

Imagine if India executes it's massive young population, a lot potential there, this chart stuns people when I show them this

India cooks the books.

That chart says that India has been out performing China for 7 years. There is no evidence of that on the ground.

Are you trying to back up your narrative?

indigenous says

India cooks the books.

That chart says that India has been out performing China for 7 years. There is no evidence of that on the ground.

Are you trying to back up your narrative?

Chinese stocks were hit bad recently. Looks reasonable.

Lots of violence on the way whenever you have disproportionate numbers of young people. That also happened here (crime rate began to skyrocket in the mid 60s and didn't begin to fall until the early 90s when the youngest boomer turned 30).

Logan Mohtashami says

maybe new home sales nirvana is on its way this year? lol. everything seems stronger this year though. people want them houses.

landtof says

stronger this year though

The best thing about the report was the revisions, all positive, headline too strong, like most M/M reports you get a wild headline swings and revisions in the next report.

But, the last 3 months

+
+
+

The one negative was that is was mostly on the high end, that has limits, hence why the median price took off, it was dismal report on the lower end.

All and All.. a solid report but do expect some pull back from today's headline

As always with housing in this cycle, it was dealing with the over hype on the sales estimates, this is why we had that big correction last year but it didn't mean housing was falling apart, it's just Wall Street has but some real out of context sales estimates that haven't been met in 2013, 2014, and 2015, things have calm down after that last correction, a bit more realistic numbers out there now

Slow and steady, this cycle wasn't going to be a booming housing cycle in terms of demand but that doesn't mean we can't see slow and steady growth

April 23

Now Updated

2016 New Home Sales: Best Of The Cycle

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/26/2016-new-home-sales-best-of-the-cycle/

Hello Logan. Were you on strike?

Strategist says

Hello Logan. Were you on strike?

No, I promised to never post a thread on this site.. But...will comment from time to time

Note..

April 23rd when I wrote the thread piece 2 negative YoY prints

Then we had some people call for the peak of new home sales in the cycle at roughly 500K

What happened after that ...

This did

2016.. forget the headline number for a second

The internals look good!

which I explain here

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/26/2016-new-home-sales-best-of-the-cycle/

Question for 2017 now...

Can total starts break over 1,200,0000

We have talked about this before

all the 50 year average in starts people to 1,500,000 have whiffed big time because of a lack of a demographic background

Explained here

"Housing Starts Roof Being Tested"

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/20/housing-starts-roof-being-tested/

The most important data line for new home sales is that median price is falling this is the single most demand bullish data line of the cycle right now, make shift in sales prices leads to higher volume, the * in all my predictions article

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Hello Logan. Were you on strike?

No, I promised to never post a thread on this site.. But...will comment from time to time

Why? Did Ironman threaten to beat you up?

Strategist says

Why? Did Ironman threaten to beat you up?

This site isn't suited for Data Miners, plus I am really getting stretched on time these days. Looking at the crazy thread headlines, lord have mercy, all the Anti American cry babies left and right .... ;-)

But maybe If I can get a good enough presentation material from the conference in a month.. I know you guys here all care about home prices.

Well, that's the group they have me in.

I will be speaking at 2016 Americatalyst: Fast Forward,October 30 – November 1st in Austin, Texas.

My panel will be called WITHERING HEIGHTS: House and Rent Price Projections and will include these speakers.

HOSTED BY

TONI MOSS, CEO, AMERICATALYST LLC and EUROCATALYST BV

TIM SKEET, Senior Advisor, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION | ICMA

FEATURING

DOUG BENDT, SVP of Research and Product Development, RENTRANGE

MARK FLEMING, SVP and Chief Economist, FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION

LOGAN MOHTASHAMI, Senior Loan Manager, AMC LENDING GROUP

ALLAN WEISS, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, WEISS RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward

Logan Mohtashami says

Senior Loan Manager

five executives and a loan officer walk into a bar...

BayArea says

five executives and a loan officer walk into a bar...

;-) that has benefited me for so many years, people thinking I was just a loan officer, but I believe my bio is going to make my dark cover go away.

It has been an advantage over many people who aren't versed in all economic data, I am actually friends now with all the national housing economist, it will be nice to finally meet them in person

Logan Mohtashami is a financial writer and blogger covering the U.S. economy with a specialization in the housing market. His work has been published by Benzinga.com, Business Insider, and in his own highly respected blog, LoganMohtashami- Financial Truth. His blog articles are frequently reposted by economic insiders sites such as David Stockman’s Contra Corner, The Wall Street Examiner, dshort.com, Advisor Perspectives and quoted by HousingWire, BankRate.com, AmericanBanker, Danielle DiMartino Booth and many others. Housing experts such as Professor Amir Sufi, (Booth School of Business), Professor Anthony Sanders (George Mason University) and reporters from CNBC and the Wall Street Journal have quoted Logan. Audio interviews with Logan have been featured on Jason Hartman’s Young Wealth Show, and he is a recurring guest on David Lykken’s Blog Talk Radio and Kathleen Hays Bloomberg Financial where he does the national housing market preview at the start of each year.

Called a social media star by National Mortgage News, and “the chart guy” and “housing guru” by nearly everyone else, Logan’s astute analysis of economic data and years of direct lending experience allow him to present a unique, informed and unbiased perspective on the financial markets. Logan is perhaps best known for his highly prescient yearly predictions articles, and his weekly predictions on the health of the housing market and mortgage rate trends on Bankrate.com

But...

What I want ... a shot at the Anti Fed people, I am hoping David Stockman shows up for that debate and I can get into that one!

Now that will be fun

Demographics vs Anti Central Bank people

List of all the panels and discussions here

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward

Awesome Logan, best of luck with it! Report back to us after the conference.

So when will the fed tighten interest rates :-)

BayArea says

So when will the fed tighten interest rates :-)

I like my model of 2.5% core and 4% ECI wage inflation to get any rate hike cycle going.. but.. December is in play...

It's not going to be driven by data, data is going to slow and steady util the next decade but inflation will make them move...

Still not enough to get them going yet.. Maybe December but after that.. follow inflation!

Janet is a JOLTS lady, rule of thumb

U6 under 10% and U3 Under 5% gets the wage inflation process started but not enough yet to get the Fed going

The trump recessions will mean deflation for a decade.

Followed by either the Hunger Games or Cannibal Anarchy!

nirvana-ish

Logan Mohtashami says

The most important data line for new home sales is that median price is falling this is the single most demand bullish data line of the cycle right now, make shift in sales prices leads to higher volume, the * in all my predictions article

builders getting some confidence in younger / first-time buyers?

landtof says

builders getting some confidence in younger / first-time buyers?

they cycle was so one sided that any movement of growth from under 400K group would impact these lower level sales but would send lower the median sales price.

This cycle is very unique in that aspect, so the falling price has to be explained in that manner

Last month's report
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/08/23/solid-new-home-sales-print/

8% growth year over year in homes between 200K-300K

that kind of data trend is needed because once you start from 675K-775K you don't have the low bar thesis anymore for sales and you need to earn it. So, growth on the lower end needs to happen,

landtof says

nirvana-ish

Ivy Zelman: I think we're in nirvana for #housing. I'm the most bullish I've ever been. @cnbcfastmoney
9:18 AM - 7 Mar 2013

Ivy Zelman:

1/15/2015

Last year was disappointing, but favorable conditions remain. "We had expected 15% to 20% starts growth and it turned out to be flat." Housing starts will keep growing at 15% compound annual growth rate through the end of the decade.

This year she made a video now trying to explain why the builders aren't building as much

As much as I had a better sales demand call that she did since 2013

The housing start thesis was the real winner because that was something everyone thought we would hit 1.5 million shortly and we can't break 1.2 million yet and now you lost steam with multifamily housing

"Housing Roof Being Tested"

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/20/housing-starts-roof-being-tested/

Logan Mohtashami says

Last year was disappointing, but favorable conditions remain.

True, but i am still disappointed.
1. I expected median OC prices to increase 10%+ in 2016, but so far it is only running at a 6.5% rate. :(
2. I expected new home sales to be a lot higher than it is now. :(
3. I expected the economy to be growing at a 3% rate in 2016. :(

How am i gonna be rich if this continues? :(

Strategist says

3. I expected the economy to be growing at a 3% rate in 2016. :(

I had 1.9%-2.3% for 2016

Consumption is good, but domestic investment was going to be light this year