patrick.net

The nominal value of realty in BA won't go down 32% cumulative. If that happens, our country's financial system will be in big trouble. Hence comes in the government and money printing. Therefore, the nominal value of homes will probably drop around 15-25% to the most, while USD takes a big hit. But that is the only way to inflate our banks out of bankruptcy.

That said, it is plausible that some quite undesirable neighborhoods that have been lifted up by the overall RE bubble may go down 50%, in nominal value. But I wonder if you dare to pick up some properties there after the bubble bursts.

All it is is a socialist transfer of wealth from shareholders to employees who are getting a lucky deal and earning much more than they would command in a sane market. A market is never sane when its participants think the money is growing on trees.

Storry Stanman, everything you dislike is not "socialist." it is a transfer of wealth from VCs to founders and well understood by everyone involved. Big Bad Ole' Gubmint ain't got nothing to do with it.

I joined my current company pre-IPO and got a fair chunk of stock. Not enough to retire on, but enough that I have a downpayment for a bigger house, if I wanted. I would have not taken this job without the stock options, since I could have gotten a bigger salary elsewhere.

And I have to admit, doing this at a different company during the dot com boom got me my downpayment on my first house. I know I have been the preacher of "save 10% of your income for five years" but the truth is, I had very little saved before I sold my set of options in 1999. My fiancee, on the other hand, saved up her half of the downpayment on a waitresses salary, while going to graduate school. So at least someone I know has done it.

And now that I live with her, I save like mad. Funny how that works. :-D

Oh, by the way, my TOL and MTH puts are up 25% and 50% today. I guess the housing market did not like Greenspan's comments about interest rates.

If these puts work out the way I am expecting them to (at least 100% up) I will take any of you who wish to show up out for sushi, that's a promise. I would never have actually gotten off my tushie and applied for a level 2 trading agreement with E*Trade if it hadn't been for the steady barrage of housing bubble related information you all provided me with.

"500k blow my mind and I think what the hell are people thinking???"

More like what are they smoking. But seriously, 500K doesn't even do it in anyplace I'd want to live in the Bay Area. Prices keep edging closer to a million for a halfway decent single family house. And if you're talking a fixer with character, well, that's still in the same price range.

It's hard to fathom the mentality of spending that much until you're in the midst of a bunch of people who actually are. I have to give props to those of you who do live in desirable areas and have managed to resist the herd mentality of buy-buy-buy-real-estate-never-goes-down-you're-going-to-be-priced-out-forever. Because when we visit our family and friends who all think we should buy, I find myself starting to think crazy thoughts like, "Well, I guess if we can swing the 4000K per month payments, we might be able to own a house here..." And then we have to get the hell out of there.

I was talking to one of the parents at my daughter's school and told him I was renting and he totally agreed that it made sense in this market. He told me that he and his wife tried to find a house with some property because they have 4 kids and would like to have a place for them to play. He said they couldn't find anything they could afford within a 50 mi radius, and I believe him. They are going to Oregon this week to look at homes.

What bugs me about family/friends who do the buy buy buy mantra is that they really don't understand what it's like right now. All my family bought years ago and have no idea what homes cost these days. And when you tell them they say "well, why don't you just get an interest only loan.... blah blah blah." It's so hard to gat across to them that I don't want to buy some teeny tiny shack and then be house poor because I had to pay a fortune for it. I can literally get twice the house if I rent.

Did you guys read this article from Reuters about how borrowing and adding to the U.S. debt for Katrina reconstruction is likely to make interest rates go up?
http://tinyurl.com/76wqf

Very interesting.

It’s hard to fathom the mentality of spending that much until you’re in the midst of a bunch of people who actually are. I have to give props to those of you who do live in desirable areas and have managed to resist the herd mentality of buy-buy-buy-real-estate-never-goes-down-you’re-going-to-be-priced-out-forever.

Yeah--I hear this constantly. Of course, it's never actually backed up with anything other than "just look at how prices have gone up". Then I drag out my research, comments by Schiller, The Economist and others: blank stares, quick change of subject.
Sometimes I feel like Noah, giving out "bad weather forecasts" LOL.

"A 2 topping large pizza and 3 pitchers of beer at Lanesplitters in Berkeley will set you back 90 bones including tip."

Man either I'm getting old, inflation is getting ridiculous, or both.

Sometimes I feel like Noah, giving out “bad weather forecasts” LOL.

Awesome line! Hilarious.

Maybe it includes some bowling.

Sometimes I feel like Noah, giving out “bad weather forecasts” LOL.

Do you guys think Noah includes "(Not weather advice)" in his forecasts?

"Sometimes I feel like Noah, giving out “bad weather forecasts” "

LOL!

And regarding SurferX's bowling alley bill, I totally believe it. We bought enough pizza in San Mateo recently to feed 4 adults and 3 kids, and the bill was between $60 and 70. I was stunned. Granted, it was "gourmet" pizza, but still. Pizza!

Just spotted a great posting on craigslist.
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/98794861.html
The poster is looking for a family to rent a house he hasn't bought yet. Once he has the renters lined up, he's going to buy the rental property. How tight do you have to be financially if you have to line up the renter before you buy?? Pretty funny.

"gourmet pizza"

What a scam.

It's like saying "elegant living in a double wide."

The poster is looking for a family to rent a house he hasn’t bought yet. Once he has the renters lined up, he’s going to buy the rental property. How tight do you have to be financially if you have to line up the renter before you buy?? Pretty funny.

LOL

Good luck finding anyone. Better luck for him if he cannot find anyone.

“gourmet pizza”

Gourmet soup line! Parking spaces for your designer shopping carts!

It’s like saying “elegant living in a double wide.”

Why are the posts getting cut off??

I was going to say if you go to Malibu you can get the "elegant double wide."

CONGRATS Everyone! Fed Raises rates, signaling the economy continues to be robust AND the 10-yr yield actually dips a bit, making mortgage rates cheaper! BEST OF BOTH WORLDS!

Well, if this squeezes out marginal buyers while keeping conventional fixed rate mortgage borrowers untouched, I am fine with it. I guess the market will be healthier once the marginal homedebtors are forced out of the game, perhaps rightfully.

Marina Prime, quick question, is a Russian Hill condo a good investment for someone with cash but is not too concerned about risks? What are the numbers (price/rent) like?

I love Russian Hill, and would buy. But, ONLY if i had a view of the Bay.

So how much is a 2/2 on Russian Hill with a view going for? Usually what is the rent and HOA?

This is for a friend's friend. Thanks.

Love the Columbia/Wharton piece also.

You should love this too:
http://tinyurl.com/7fpdq
Sure smells robust to me.

Prime Meridian wrote "CONGRATS Everyone! Fed Raises rates, signaling the economy continues to be robust"

Fed is raising rates because inflation is getting out of hand.

Please don’t feed the troll. I thought this asshole was banned, more banned, and then double banned?

X--you're right. Take the effort to dig up data that's blissfully ignored.
So, who's the joke really on?

Guess what Escaped from the District… if inflation is ‘getting out of hand’, then guess what happens to real asset appreciation?

If only inflation is a single variable...

Thanks for the info. Russian Hill is District 8, by the way.

Sorry this question is off topic, but I thought I would ask it anyway. If home prices remain flat for a certain time, is there a chance that this would cause prices to eventually fall?

This is a MIRAGE vs ILLUSION question (see glossary). If the market is as speculative as we have thought, sustained non-appreciation itself will be sufficient to trigger a crash.

MP,

This one appears to be under $1000/sf:

http://www.sfarmls.com/scripts/mgrqispi.dll?APPNAME=Sanfrancisco&PRGNAME=MLSPropertyDetail&ARGUMENTS=-N291205560,-N176638,-N,-A,-N408075

Please do not use as an example if it sells for 400K above asking. ;)

Or does it have problems?

Housing prices never fall because no more land is being made.

Huh?

Yeah, but heck, I’ll tell it at least once to everyone I care about. Ain’t about to hear how I knew “all this” was coming and didn’t say squat to ‘em.

Do you guys remember the Will and Grace "I told you so" dance?

Just throwing fuel on the fire Peter since MP was here winding you guys up. That condo looks very nice. $682 / sf is a good deal? Jesus.

It is not for myself, of course. Is it a good deal? I do not know.

Considering that a San Jose condo next to the airport is selling for $480/sf with no view...

Shit that condo is SUPERPRIME. 1.15mil? Why not buy 2 and be twice as prime?

Multiply any prime number by two and you get a non-prime number.

How do you guys approach this one?

Depends on who the person I am talking to. Sometimes, I just pretend to be a bull in order to avoid "awkwardness".

"This is a MIRAGE vs ILLUSION question (see glossary). If the market is as speculative as we have thought, sustained non-appreciation itself will be sufficient to trigger a crash."

Thanks Peter.

But all of my friends have heard my bubble throey at least once.

"How do you guys approach this one?"

Well, I'm a big jerk with no sensitivity, so when the nosey neighbors asked about the sale, I'd get real loud and aggressive and say,

"this whole market is a giant bubble and you've got to be an idiot to buy real estate at these prices. Me, I'm going to pawn this big overpriced piece of ___ off on any sucker who will take it."

No kidding. Maybe a little less nasty, but I tried to get my point accross. Part of that was 4 years of having to put up with "this area will always be in demand because it's such a great place to live," and "the Redskins are going to win it this year."

1. Other than the schools and the good assortment of people, the place was a god-awful place to live. Traffic, high price, bad weather . . .

2. The Redskins suck and will never be any good with an old man at quarterback. Don't let the 2-0 fool you. They're going down.

Yeah, but heck, I’ll tell it at least once to everyone I care about. Ain’t about to hear how I knew “all this” was coming and didn’t say squat to ‘em.

Agreed--but anyone buying should go outside their realtor for ample cautionary information. That said, a coworker discussed how they want to buy a bigger home right now, despite knowing that prices could easily fall. He actually said he "worked the numbers" and they were in his favor. That is, until we did some calculations together, taking a moderate bust into account--and oops it didn't look so great after all. (I also cautioned this guy against buying Worldcom stock--to no avail)

I suspect a lot of home-buying decisions are not rational at all. It's just like someone eyeing that new sports car in the showroom. At first, it seemed out of the question; there were a hundred reason not to buy. But later, after thinking about the car, it becomes a "necessity" of sorts, and we concoct arguments to rationalize the decision. Been there, done that myself. The same goes for houses. They're are such visible examples of our self-image, financial standing, and daresay "self-worth" that people will do anything to "move up". It's just a part of the "ownership culture" that many people will pay dearly for.

Peter P? You "try to avoid awkwardness?" That must be a Cali sensitivity thing. There's nothing I like more than blasting the RE idiots.

"Yeah, you think house prices are going up?" I ask them. Then I reel off about 10 statistics that say otherwise. They never have an answer. It seems that 100% of RE bulls are either Realtors or clueless people.

I won't talk about realty with my friends, who on average own 2.5 homes per family, and most of them picked up the homes in the last 2 years. I just made my case earlier on and keep my mouth shut. There is no point talking about it once the deals are done. With my close family, all of us turn out to be quite financially prudent, so no worries there.

I bought my current home 9 years ago so unless my neighborhood loses 65% of the current value, I will be fine. This is my primary residence, and I am locked in with a low property tax.

I also think selling your only residence is kind of a gamble. If you buy in the last 3-4 years, it is worthwhile to do it. If you are like me, bought early at a low point, you'd be better off sitting through the bubble.

If you have an investment property, it will be stupid not to unload at this point. But don't talk too much about it until your transaction is done. You do want the buyers to think the party will last forever.

Kurt S, your post was dead on. Well put.

Do you guys think it make sense to take advantage of the price compression and move from a crash-prone/less-desirable area to a more desirable area?

I am trying to help out another friend who lives in a "sub-prime" area. Selling and renting is not a feasible solution.

Multiply any prime number by two and you get a non-prime number.

lmao!

Peter P? You “try to avoid awkwardness?” That must be a Cali sensitivity thing. There’s nothing I like more than blasting the RE idiots.

Not really. I am not sensitive at all. I just try to avoid unnecessary confrontation because it does not serve me any better.