patrick.net

HARM Says:

> @SFWoman, Though it’s no beauty queen,
> I wouldn’t call that the Ugliest house in
> America or even NoCal

Some real dumps at:

http://marinpos.blogspot.com/

Keep in mind you’re quoting someone who also thought he was a jelly donut.

Yes, and I think I am a cannibalistic lobster. :)

I’m so warped I still think that people dislike Ayn only because they learnt it was fashionable to do so as some right of passage — usually about 3 weeks into Philosophy 101.

Actually, it was around page 700 of Atlas Shrugged after reading The Fountainhead the month before.

In Ayn's sexy fantasy land, people don't need safety nets. Nobody in Rand's world got hit with Cancer after losing their health insurance.

@Doug H
Or...it may be 'Property Ladder'...a good 'ohmygod what were you THINKING!?!?' kind of show.

Particularly liked the one with the young newleyweds, who thought that not having an inspection prior to buying a 'fixer upper' was no big deal...

@HidingintheBronx.....you aren't from the UK, are you???
Makes me laugh that the most popular UK show ever only takes 40 years to cross the Big Pond. I love it though.
But I'm still trying to get my head around David Tannant - Christopher Eccleston was brilliant.

I'll have to get on board w/Dr. Who but my all time favorite was "The Avengers" w/Patrick McNee and Diana Rigg (hubba hubba). They were so campy and kind of kinky in weird sort of way?

Hiding,

Come on! You don't even watch the new Battlestar Galactica?

FAB,

MarinPOS was pretty damn funny! Evidently only in the BA can something that's 800 sq. ft. be considered "perfect for entertaining".

How about, "perfect for hermit w/no friends and no desire ever to have friends"? Seriously. I thought to myself, entertaining who? Carnival performers? WTF.

The show I watched had a couple selling their house to move up....isn't that always the case and it documented their work with their realtor and the selling process......low offers and SINCERE disgust they had to actually get up off their ass and do something. After all, they are ENTITLED.....
Thanks for the clues; I just got cable down here and there are a kazillion channels of crap so there's a bunch of programs I've never heard of. I'll let everyone know when I locate the series. This one was pretty true to the current market situation.

Back to my friend DinOR. I got a flyer in the mail all the way down here about an upcoming property auction in the Portland area....WTF?

Here's the website: http://rmnw-auctions.com/

Any idea what this is all about?

@Randy H,

Thank you, sir. I am truly honored to receive praise from the Great Master of econometrics himself. :blush:

@FAB,

Thanks for the MariPOS link --nice to have something to 'fill the void' left by the late, great "America’s Overvalued Real Estate".

I think this works better: :oops:

I'm a bit bummed that Mark Warner is not running in 2008. I wish Hilary Clinton made that announcement instead.

Awful Truth,

LOL! Great news. Maybe I can rope my boyfriend in for some property blogging now. (Once his precious Tigers play out their season).

astrid,

You get behind those Tigers and I do mean now! I don't want to jinx 'em but this could be a victory dance worthy of youtube! Or Gootube or.... whatever...... Anyone seen the Fox commercials w/Tommy Lasorda coaxing "also ran" fans down from trees and out from under the cupboards in the fetal position! They show one Cubs fan in a tree in the front yard, eyes aglaze sucking his thumb! Too funny. Me? I'm joining Tommy by the TV!

Allah,

It's ok. You buy when *you* think the absolute, undeniable, incontestable bottom occurs. Other people may have to balance the almighty dollar with living their lives just a tad bit more than you.

You think I'm a realtor in disguise? I'm not anonymous. You can read all about me. What do I know about you again?

There will be people buying as the prices drop and they will be buying for fear that someone else will buy it if they don’t, but what they don’t understand is that with inventorys as high as they are and as high as they will be going there will be other similar or better houses that will be available for increasingly better prices.

What you don't understand is that this exact outcome is not 100% guaranteed, and some people may derive better value from buying at a different point than others, including you. You are not everyone; you are just you.

By the way, prices are very sticky, by definition, right now; at least in this area. They have been for some months now. That you choose to ignore it does not change that fact.

you are just you

Excellent quote, Randy. May I use it on my new non-proliferation blog if I decide to start one? :)

Is it anecdote time again? I was speaking to a persian friend a week ago and she was telling me about her cousin who somehow managed to gather up around seven houses. (And had no idea how he could afford them, of course.)

I was speaking to a persian friend a week ago and she was telling me about her cousin who somehow managed to gather up around seven houses.

Seven only? What a petit flipper. :)

Sure Peter P, I just want a small cut of your massive Google Ads revenues. 85% should do. ;)

Sure Peter P, I just want a small cut of your massive Google Ads revenues. 85% should do.

If it is truly massive I would not care. ;)

Perhaps south marin is really prime. It has one of the very few Michelin starred sushi restaurants (perhaps the only one?) in the Bay Area.

How is Sushi Ran by BTW?

Just had a realtor at the door wanting to know if I wanted to sell my house - told him it's a rental (now I'm hoping he's not going to contact the owners - I don't want them deciding to sell at the minute) - wanted to know if I'd like to buy a house.

I've noted at least 2 realtors cold calling in this neighborhood in the last 3 weeks - what kind of sign is that? Is my area highly sought after or are the realtors desperate for business?

You think I’m a realtor in disguise? I’m not anonymous.

Randy is a realtor? :lol:

How is Sushi Ran by BTW?

Delightful. Hard to get in, though, and it carries a high premium.

I am a bit more a fan of Robata Grill.

I am a bit more a fan of Robata Grill.

I love robata. Do you want to comment in Astrid's blog?

Claire Says:

> Just had a realtor at the door wanting to know
> if I wanted to sell my house - told him it’s a
> rental (now I’m hoping he’s not going to contact
> the owners - I don’t want them deciding to sell
> at the minute).

As a renter you always want to tell Realtors at the door that the owner is a relative who NEVER plans to sell (nothing is worse than renting a place that is for sale)...

@HidingintheBronx: ...ahh, Scotland, my all-time favourite country :-)
Wierdly enough, every time I've been to Scotland the weather has been wonderful.

Except for the time I had to wait in Glasgow one winter's day, for the train to Ardrossan (for the ferry to Arran) when it was a staggering -12C (about 10 degrees f) during the day. Other than that...blissful.
Wherabouts does your brother live?

@LILLL: LOL!
I'm working on the 'quantity over quality' model atm when saving stuff on Zip. I reckon of the 100+ places I'm tracking (some on spreadsheet now), a few will still be availalble when i want to start looking to buy in Q32007. I'd like to document what happens to them all during the long dark tea-time of the soul over winter 2006 and beyond. I'm not actually thinking of buying it, especially at 1.2 mill. 450K, maybe.....
I chose it because its within commuting distance for the husband, and we actually like small - there's only the two of us, plus cats, so don't need much over 1500 sq ft. Plus, a 10K lot is a nice size for L.A.

I'll be sure to monitor the goings-on there now!
Especially if she's snotty :-)

sure Peter P. Post the URL. All I find is Astrid's mish mash.

Claire,

We get plenty of soliciting newly minted "realtors" here in Tam Valley McMansionville hell.

I always tell them "no, I'm not looking to sell. I really built this home to leave to my kids".

sure Peter P. Post the URL. All I find is Astrid’s mish mash.

greencrabs.blogspot.com

astrid Says:

LOL! Great news. Maybe I can rope my boyfriend in for some property blogging now. (Once his precious Tigers play out their season).

I have some more here. The numbers across the board are very bad, but I'm just mentioning the worst of the worst. It makes for great drama!

So... let's see...

In January of 2005, there were approximately 46 active ATTACHED listings (condos/townhomes, usually) for the following cities in Contra Costa County:

Alamo, Blackhawk, Clayton, Concord/Clyde, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez/Pacheco, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, Rossmoor, San Ramon, Walnut Creek

As or today for those same cities (according to ziprealty) there are 930
active ATTACHED listings.

That's 1922% increase in inventory for that period (about 19 months).

In August 05, it was 300. In August of 06, 940. So YOY about 210% increase in inventory.

For anyone who cares, the YOY increase for Detached (from the other post) is about 147%. There were around 804 Detached properties in those cities on the market in August of 05, vs 1902 in Aug of '06.

Pending Detached 8/05 vs 8/06: -44% Attached: -50%
Sales Detached 8/05 vs 8/06: -25% Attached: -25%

So consider two things in regards to the above:

1) Inventory has jumped 147% and 210% YOY but sales are down 25% for both. Oops.

2) Look at Pendings. -44% and -50%. These will likely CLOSE in September. So I wonder what those september numbers look like. Probably pretty painful.

YOY Sales were below 2005 levels from April onward. However, inventories have been AT LEAST 100% over 2005 levels for the same month.

August 06 PRICE is down 3% YOY, not adjusting for inflation.

In response to the Sticky Prices arguments in this thread, first, a definition:

Sticky prices
Petrol-pump PRICES do not change every time the oil price changes, and holiday prices and standard hotel rates are fixed for months. Sticky prices are slow to change in response to changes in SUPPLY or DEMAND. As a result there is, at least temporarily, DISEQUILIBRIUM in the market. The causes of stickiness include MENU COSTS, inadequate information, consumers’ dislike of frequent price changes and long-term contracts with fixed prices. Prices change only when the cost of leaving them unchanged exceeds the expense of adjusting them. In FINANCIAL MARKETS, prices move all the time because the cost of quoting the wrong price can be huge. In other industries, the penalty may be much less severe. Small disequilibria in, say, the pricing of hotel rooms will not make much difference. So hotel prices are often sticky.

Second, I have only to look through my stack of CCAR Update newsletters to see evidence that RE is very sticky. Inventory (supply) has been going UP UP UP constantly since Jan of 05. Usually in the double-digits. But price was ALSO going up during much of that period even when adjusting for inflation. Price has only very recently started to level off according to these stats, at least 18 months after inventory levels began to rise dramatically.

That's the exact definition of sticky.

Here's a creepy new gimmick builders are using to move their overpriced McAlbatrosses: hiring actors to "live" & interact in model homes.

Centex HomePlay actors
http://rprclients.com/CTX-06201HomePlay/CTX-06201HomePlay.html

MODEL HOMES MAY NEVER BE THE SAME. Most people are familiar with model homes as a way of showcasing a new neighborhood. But do model homes reveal how a home really lives? They do now! Welcome to HomePlay, Centex Homes’ improvisational theatrical model home experience. During HomePlay, actors representing a family will interact with each other as if the new Trellis Model Home at RiverPark were their actual home. Our HomePlay family will be taking part in all the happenings that could take place in a real household. The family will interact with potential homebuyers in BOTH ENGLISH AND SPANISH.

Because this is an innovative, improvisational experience we can’t predict how this will unfold. But we do expect this to express how a new home at Trellis can be lived in. Join us on October 14th for HomePlay at the Trellis Model Home.

Oh, the satiric/comedic possibilities are endless...

Here’s a creepy new gimmick builders are using to move their overpriced McAlbatrosses: hiring actors to “live” & interact in model homes.

How about playing some acted murder / who-did-it type game as well? Potential buyers will have to roam around the entire model homes to find clues. The winner will have the right to buy the overpriced crap.

Even better: how about we form our own troupe of BubblePlay actors and tour open houses (uninvited of course)?

(courtesy SDFotBotD from Ben Jones' blog):

“I told you we shouldn’t have bought now…”
“How are we going to pay the mortgage when the rate adjusts?”
“…the nice people on the Blog said ‘Wait’, but noooo…”
“What does ‘negative equity’ mean?”
“…buy now, or be priced out forever, you said!”
“The mortgage broker won’t return our phone calls!”
“I think we should see other people…”

HARM Says:

Even better: how about we form our own troupe of BubblePlay actors and tour open houses (uninvited of course)?

Can I get to play Casey Serin?

Can I get to play Casey Serin?

Only if I get to be David Lereah!

I want to play the crazy squirrel feeding lady.

Only if I get to be David Lereah!

That would be an interesting script - a conversation between Serin and Lereah, with the crazy squirrel lady running around in the background, and maybe add in a few more characters:

- that "suzanne researched this" Century 21 couple
- Bob Toll
- Gary Watts
- Larry Nussbaum
- Leslie Appleton-Young

The Awful Truth (I hope you don't mind me calling you TAT from now on),

Thanks! Sounds better and better. If this keeps up, I might have a shot at buying that high up Blackhawk manor with Diablo views in 2012. Maybe even 2010 if DinOR migrate south and start his emcee career in the pricy parts of Danville.

FAB says:

"It is scary when my sister tells me about SF girls in their 30’s that have six figure credit card debt who are hoping to marry someone who pays it off…"

That is scary indeed. I'd seriously reconsider marrying anyone in debt unless they have a very good excuse (medical emergency or recent educational expenses or bad luck on a good business plan). People who are still irresponsible with money in their thirties don't sound like good life partners. Marrying a spendthrift is much less conducive to future happiness than marrying someone homely or someone with a lowly (but honest) job.