patrick.net

Here’s a creepy new gimmick builders are using to move their overpriced McAlbatrosses: hiring actors to “live” & interact in model homes.

How about playing some acted murder / who-did-it type game as well? Potential buyers will have to roam around the entire model homes to find clues. The winner will have the right to buy the overpriced crap.

Even better: how about we form our own troupe of BubblePlay actors and tour open houses (uninvited of course)?

(courtesy SDFotBotD from Ben Jones' blog):

“I told you we shouldn’t have bought now…”
“How are we going to pay the mortgage when the rate adjusts?”
“…the nice people on the Blog said ‘Wait’, but noooo…”
“What does ‘negative equity’ mean?”
“…buy now, or be priced out forever, you said!”
“The mortgage broker won’t return our phone calls!”
“I think we should see other people…”

HARM Says:

Even better: how about we form our own troupe of BubblePlay actors and tour open houses (uninvited of course)?

Can I get to play Casey Serin?

Can I get to play Casey Serin?

Only if I get to be David Lereah!

I want to play the crazy squirrel feeding lady.

Only if I get to be David Lereah!

That would be an interesting script - a conversation between Serin and Lereah, with the crazy squirrel lady running around in the background, and maybe add in a few more characters:

- that "suzanne researched this" Century 21 couple
- Bob Toll
- Gary Watts
- Larry Nussbaum
- Leslie Appleton-Young

The Awful Truth (I hope you don't mind me calling you TAT from now on),

Thanks! Sounds better and better. If this keeps up, I might have a shot at buying that high up Blackhawk manor with Diablo views in 2012. Maybe even 2010 if DinOR migrate south and start his emcee career in the pricy parts of Danville.

FAB says:

"It is scary when my sister tells me about SF girls in their 30’s that have six figure credit card debt who are hoping to marry someone who pays it off…"

That is scary indeed. I'd seriously reconsider marrying anyone in debt unless they have a very good excuse (medical emergency or recent educational expenses or bad luck on a good business plan). People who are still irresponsible with money in their thirties don't sound like good life partners. Marrying a spendthrift is much less conducive to future happiness than marrying someone homely or someone with a lowly (but honest) job.

HARM,

I'm imagining a situational comedy, a sort of cross between MADtv and Curb Your Enthusiasm.

Don't you just feel for this guy? He must have some kind of house in Portland for this rent.......

"I owned this house for the past 2 1/2 and stuck with a (5 yr)pre-payment penalty if I sell the house early. Should I rent it to avoid the pre-payment penalty or sell it? Got a new job and must relocate to a somewhat depress town. We want to keep the house as an investment but don't want to let it sit. We can rent it to qualified renters with minimum rental payment of $3,000/mo. Is this a reasonable rate?
Location: Portland, Oregon"

"Don’t you just feel for this guy?"

No! If he bought in early 2004 he can still afford to sell for a profit and he's just greedily holding out for more upside. If he had agreed to extremely onerous pre-payment penalties then he's a reckless dumbass. Asking for $3K/month in Portland (I assume his house is very plain vanilla) is greedy and unrealistic.

I don't have any sympathy for greedy dumbasses. This one can go rot in his "somewhat depress town."

(PS - I know your question was asked in jest, but greedy dumbass RE specuvestors really piss me off today)

Allah Says:

What area are you talkng about? Where are these prices going up? I gave Randy an example of one place where it is not sticky (click here)….and although this is NOT the only non-sticky area, it was just easily available to prove my point, and since I don’t see Randy answering back, I can only assume that I’ve made my point.

Allah be Praised, I am pulling this info directly from the Monthly Statistics page of the Contra Costa Update. Everything I've said is true. Prices DID go up YOY in nearly all months even when adjusting for inflation at the same time that inventory was rising dramatically. As I said, it seems with August that trend may have finally flattened or reversed.

I'd scan this stuff for all of you but it says it's copyrighted. You may be able to call your local association and ask if they publish these numbers and if you can get them.

The very important thing you are missing with that link you pointed me to is you don't know what inventory looked like *preceding* those price falls. Was inventory gaining double-digit for the two years prior *while* prices were still going up? Further, we also don't know what's going on (hard numbers) in the whole of Sac. While some are taking a bath, others might still be appreciating. (All that said, there is no doubt in my mind that Sac will take a brutal beating overall).

You see some people taking a bath now, but the supply might have dictated it two years ago and it's only now starting to happen. That's stickiness. :-(

goober,

I'll probably hold my nose and vote for Hilary if I absolutely have to, but in that case I might just decide voting for a decent Green Party candidate if they ever bother to field someone reasonable and pragmatic. I will be working against Clinton II every step of the way - maybe even up to supporting a McGovernesque splinter candidate that ensure another Republican in office.

And then I'll work extra hard to get that Australian or Canadian citizenship. If Bush Clinton Bush Clinton ?Bush? is the best this country can do, I don't want to be a part of this country much longer.

Doug H/astrid,

Uh, I think you can stay at the Benson Hotel for 3K a month! Nobody is getting 3K a month. Our rents are so anemic it's ridiculous. Why doesn't dude get on C/L for some real laughs. With an NAAVLP 3K will put you in some of the finest neighborhoods in Goose Hollow, "The Pearl Dist." (which is a total fabrication w/no historic precedent btw) or even Lake Oswego. In fact I don't believe I've EVER seen a 3K rent in Drizzletown, let alone it being a standard. This guy related to Casey by any chance?

Sale prices going up could indicate qualitative differences in the kinds of house sold. It doesn't really matter. If there's tons of supply and only a tiny amount of demand, prices will come down sooner or later...and I'm patient.

Dinor,

I can say with complete confidence that the most regulated industry in the United States of America is the nuclear industry. I work at a nuclear power plant and I can't take a dump without having the paper I used to wipe looked over for mistakes. A tree must die before I can perform the simplest tasks such as turning a light on! I can't blame the government for the oversight. Making a mistake could cost hundreds of billions of dollars (lawsuits).

http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/apa/219826329.html

Took 3 minutes to find this McAlbatross for under 2K a month. I could dredge up more but what's the point?

nuttyneutron,

Well pardon the sh@t out of me! I stand corrected. O.K, I'm in the SECOND most regulated industry.

Just kidding, (most of us here definitely appreciate what you do and I'd say overall we're pretty pro nuke/innovation here. The difference is the worst thing that can possibly happen to you (besides exposure to radiation that will leave your corpse horridly disfigured) is that you'll get fired. You'll still get your last paycheck.

We don't necessarily have to be found guilty of anything to be drummed out of the industry in disgrace, shackled for life w/legal fees you can never hope to recover, barred for life oh..... and fined more than you've ever made. When the NASD is done w/you exposure to lethal levels of radiation is starting to look pretty f@ckin' good. Other than that we're pretty lenient.

Jon,

At the risk of sounding very vulgar, I suggest we hire Mr. and Mrs. Serin for your production, along with Casey's former cellmate - white power Mike. You can be Tek Jansen.

Last line of the video, Mrs. Serin swoons in your arm and say "Tek, I bet you've had hundreds of girlfriends!"

As a matter of fact (and I can't believe I forgot this nutty) if you're under ANY kind of investigation whatsoever you're considered "radioactive". As in no one wants to be in the same lobby w/you let alone give you a job.

No matter your client connections or how much you've made over the years! You're damaged goods and good luck in your new career.

Dinor,

I only slightly glow in the dark:) I was not trying to goad you. I started work 18 months ago and am still amazed at the complete crap I have to deal with. I have been observing the RE industry and am confident that we are in a long slide. I will try and stay out of trouble with a new house, which I am looking for. I just can't find one at a reasonable price.

You are right about the whole "radioactive" part if under investigation, hell I have to report traffic tickets within 48 hours to my security department for them to reevaluate my status for "unescorted access". God what did I get myself into!

Allah,

I gave Randy an example of one place where it is not sticky (click here)….and although this is NOT the only non-sticky area, it was just easily available to prove my point, and since I don’t see Randy answering back, I can only assume that I’ve made my point.

Yes, you've made your point. You don't understand the difference between sticky prices and hard landing. I feel confident categorically stating that real estate (both residential and commercial) are sticky, as the term applies to economics.

That is simply because real estate is _not_ an example of a *perfectly competitive* market. You invoked Economics 101 earlier. Perhaps a refresher is in line. Only perfectly competitive markets can have efficient prices (in other words, not-sticky).

(And apologies to anyone who thinks I'm being too harsh or that I am merely being baited again.)

DinOR,

You are the man! The fool posted the message on a board and I'm using your link to bait the sucker.....then slap him like a 419 scammer. LOL
Thanks, I'll let you know if he "bites".

HITB,

I thought it was more like; wok-a, wok-a, wah?

Personally I find the thought of casey in an adult film revolting. And it’s not
because I’m particularly down on adult films. (Bow-chika-bow-wow).

Sounds like someones been watching Red vs. Blue

Doug H,

Were you talking about the Craigslist poster in Portland with a 4,600+ sq. ft. house (just reduced 64k btw) that is for rent/sale/lease/?

Allah,

Were are arguing semantics. Sticky is a specific economic term, and it is not what you are describing. You can reference any intro micro economic text to find the specific definition of sticky. It's no different this time than any other time. What may be different this time is the scale, scope, and psychology that affects the RE market. But I assure you basic micro economic mechanics will remain nicely intact.

Randy,

I am lost as well. I am illiterate in economy, so I may be wrong.

Sticky to me meant "slow speed of change". Just now I checked Wikipedia and it defines it as "a variable that is resistant to change".

Hard / soft landing to me means "how much of a change".

So if prices are sticky it will take a while to reach hard landing, if at all. Low speed, lot of distance and hence more time. But Sacto seems to be heading towards a hard landing pretty fast. So at least there, it is not sticky.

Rest of the country and BA in particular, could be a completely different story. The job market in BA seems to have more strength then most RE bears think. Even then, I don't think it is going to be as sticky as it was during early nineties. I actually think once it's done, most people won't be calling it as sticky behavior at all. But that's speculation from my part.

Unless, sticky means less volatility. So the change may happen fast, but the slope will be much smoother than daily gyrations of the stock market.

Different people have different definitions of soft/ hard landings/ crash/ correction etc. Maybe we all are saying the same thing, but using different words due to different levels of theoretical knowledge.

StuckInBA,

shouldn't you be the expert in stickiness? :P

sticky means that prices may take months or years to descend (or ascend i suppose), unlike the stock market, where valuations change in a matter of hours or days... houses also tend to be unable to lose as much value as stocks, barring natural catastrophes, due to inherent value of land and land use. for this reason, many ordinary people are drawn to residential property as an investment vehicle after being wiped out or duped in stocks, as they can 'understand' it, they live in one, and they believe it can't lose much value (limited downside, unlike shares/derivatives), and even 'that it can only go up (at 10% a year indefinitely)', because somebody told them, and there's a graph to prove it over the last 100 years... hence the saying 'safe as houses'

DinOR said:
"Were you talking about the Craigslist poster in Portland with a 4,600+ sq. ft. house (just reduced 64k btw) that is for rent/sale/lease/?"

He didn't say....just posted what I quoted. I'm waiting in the bushes for his reponse and will slap him with your link to the 4,600 bad boy if he gives me a chance. Hell, I think I'll slap him anyway....for being stupid.

I know nothing about the rental market in the Rose City and only what BA folks have posted here but it seemed TOTALLY out of the question for anyone to get that kind of rent up there.

More to come if he takes the bait......

Doug H,

Oh that's right. The original source of the "rental folly" was the guy that thought renting his Portland, OR home for 3K was like some kind of lay-up! LOL! I've got to be honest here. I'm just shocked by the accelerated pace with which our local market fundamentals are falling apart.

I swear just about every third posting is "rent to own/lease to own" challenged credit OK, just out of bankruptcy OK, pets OK etc. Two years ago this entire concept only existed (if it all) on commercial properties etc.

Then again OR has the highest per capita of self employed people in the country and as I've said before flipping is an "idea junkie's" dream! No regulatory body to report to and you can change your business model every day if you want to! I'll have to call Michael Anderson (our Bend, OR "insurgent") for some local updates. I owe him a call anyway.

Allah and everyone else,

Sorry to about all this. I've already emailed patrick with a request to strike down my offending comments. I really have no intention of starting a flame war with LILLL. (though I'm quite willing to participate in ones involving Hilary Clinton's running for the presidency or the right temperature to serve Brie)

Allah,

I tried your link from the post above and wasn't able to connect but tell me, is it the interview w/ Suzie Assad from Bloomberg? If so I HAVE heard each and every gut wrenching moment of that and Peter is totally unapologetic in his assesment of what lies ahead for RE! Suzie (normally bearish) and calling out HB (home builder/housing bubble cheerleaders, your option) was actually forced into a role of contrarian just to have a two sided conversation! Normally I agree w/most everything Randy H has to share (but "stickiness" ain't one of 'em).

LILLL,

When it comes to MEW (Mortgage Equity Withdrawal) the sky is the only limit! My problem with this (and my father always told me) is that doing the "work" is the easy part of the job, collecting? Now that's the tough part!

Saying I'll pay you from my house is like saying "eff off"! The guy's telling you he's going to pay you out of his house?! C'mon, I wasn't aware that houses were a liquid commodity! Tell this assclown to up and sh@t the money today (he can recover that expense from his "cash out re-fi" on his own time!) Right now, he needs to do what's right. He needs to pay you what's right. If you want (and I'm just that kinda guy) give me the invoice and the guy's phone number and I'LL call him!

astrid and LILLL are two of my favorite posters here. Not, "among the gals". Two of my favorites, period! Seeing you's two go at it is tearing my heart out (what little I have left). Please guys, please.

Allah,

Oh.... I gotcha. I'll check it out. I wasn't aware that Peter had time for a radio show? Michael Holliday and I are kind of working on that same concept. An "FB Hour" where John and Jill McDebtor call in and ask why their overpriced POS isn't selling! Michael and I kind of agreed that if we don't do it, someone else will! Do you have anything on where I can catch Peter's radio show too?

LILLL,

ALL these guys act like they ain't got the money! (And they're using yours!) When someone tells me they'll have to sell something to pay me it's like saying "I really am in a jam here, please take pity on me". I'm not buying it (and neither should you). They'll tell you they really are sucking it up to get you covered, then you see their car parked at the golf course. They're just buying time so they can deal w/other creditors that are more seasoned and not buying their cr@p. Please, please let me call this clown!

DinOR,

I'll do my best to stay out of trouble.

(Funny, I thought you handed your heart over to Randy H for trading on the futures market. That's what I did, I got $50 and stopped noticing panhandlers.

Dude, did I just start a flame war with my favorite Oregonian? ;) )

While various studies generally agree that some of the biggest risks of declines are in California and Florida, there are striking differences, reflecting different forecasting methods. For instance, a recent "risk index" study published by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. ranks the Boston metro area as the seventh-riskiest in the nation in terms of the likelihood of price declines over the next two years. But Economy.com says that home prices in Boston likely bottomed out in this year's third quarter after a modest 2.2% decline.

Glad to see that Boston has bottomed out? Economy.com? WTF?