patrick.net

The following are not supported by the top three hits on google for Strawman:

* Strawmen can't be questions (although your very own example started with a question)
* Strawmen must to be something that both sides agree on.

If a Creationist debates an Evolutionist at a University, and says "So, you're saying we're all descended from gorillas, huh?"
Do you think there is agreement on both sides that this is the case?

Do you not think that is a strawman argument?

It's teh Russians!

Everybody is hacked. Where have you been?

Patrick = Petrov. He is Putin's son-in-law, you dupes!

I'm not selling or giving away any emails!

Why would you think the spam had something to do with patrick.net?

Logan Mohtashami says

The biggest under performer in this economic cycle has been housing and as I have documented for years, that should have been excepted

so how come house prices have shot up like a rocket since? well at least here in CA

No one ask the tough questions.
Patrick,did you vote for trump?

SubOink says

so how come house prices have shot up like a rocket since? well at least here in CA

Prices are a function of inventory

This cycle was a real good example of why the Price only thesis wasn't a good one because not only do we have the weakest demand curve for existing homes but new homes sales has never had a more weaker demand curve ever on record. Tail end of a 8 year cycle in terms of nominal sales is where we would be at a recession right now today even with rates under 5% and the lowest rate curve ever on record for a cycle.

This was probably the avenue for my economic work to break through in terms of demand curve economics. The theory that all the matters is price nothing else was 100% debunked in this cycle because

- Demographics matter
- Ability of understand residential lending capacity in a ability to repay back debt matters

I always use this as a bullish demand curve post 2020 because we are working from the lowest levels ever recorded per the data existence in 2014.. as adjusting to population purchase application demand hit it's lowest level ever in 2014 and this cycle wouldn't have many than 4.5 million existing home sales if it wasn't for the abnormal high levels of distress cash purchases

New home sales was even worse.. that is working of 3 years of missed home sales estimates and still nominal levels are what we see at a recession with supply higher monthly now than any period of 1999-2005

This goes also into my thesis that

American housing economist and analyst can't keep on using low inventory for their weak demand theories, there is a more sophisticated economic equilibrium logic working here in America post 1996 ... and the adaption needs to be looked at

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/11/22/bloomberg-financial-interview-low-inventory-myth-crushed-by-existing-home-sales/

Logan Mohtashami says

This cycle was a real good example of why the Price only thesis wasn't a good one because not only do we have the weakest demand curve for existing homes but new homes sales has never had a more weaker demand curve ever on record.

All this will only result in more pent up demand. When the dam bursts, home prices will go through the roof. Home construction will explode, and home builder stocks will go to record highs.

Oh cool.
Gary and Logan have met.
Now they can shamelessly promote... endlessly reference their blogs, share links and bore each other to death.

Dark matter meet black hole.

Strategist says

pent up demand.

So my running trick is showing everyone who said this term

PENT up demand

2009-2016

new home sales 560K - 570K

Does that show pent up demand

Wait until 2020

junkmail says

Dark matter meet black hole.

Then there are grumpy old men who hide behind fakes name talking old man dreams while the young kick ass

But then again... I can be anyone I want when I hide behind a fake name

You guys are too old on this site

You need to recruit younger talent

AARP crowd of ideological thinkers

Fake created conservatives and liberals

just like demographics you need replacement people ....

Drill, baby, Drill!

Another day, another record. ZZZZzzzzzzzzz.

I like Trump better already.

This is the kind of image management he needed from the beginning. What liberal can argue with this.

anonymous says

Toss the above in with this: Some 6 million Americans are delinquent with auto loans and it’s going to get worse. The number of subprime auto loans sinking into delinquency hit their highest level since 2010 in the third quarter, with roughly 6 million individuals at least 90 days late on their payments.

There are 200 million cars on the road, with most of them paid off. 6 million defaults does not seem like a serious problem.
Bring out the repo man.

Strategist says

Another day, another record. ZZZZzzzzzzzzz.

anonymous says

6 million defaults does not seem like a serious problem - the number is rising and while that may not be too much of a problem for the moment, the inventory numbers and difference in outlook and responses between Ford and GM is unsettling to say the least, just read another piece where Chrysler is delaying some releases. Don't see this situation turning around on a dime.

American cars suck. Except for Tesla.
Toyota does not seem to be having any problem.

My one Zero Brain dead retweet

#Classic

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge
World's "Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Suffers Worst Month In History, Refuses To Capitulate http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-12/worlds-most-bearish-hedge-fund-suffers-worst-month-history-refuses-capitulate …

Logan Mohtashami says

World's "Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Suffers Worst Month In History, Refuses To Capitulate

ROFL. ha ha ha what a shocker.
"A fool and his money is soon parted"

Where were the switches made? Communist China?
Trump will make sure all GM parts are made in america.
Everything will be made in the u.s. except a few Carrier products.
Billions of jobs,WOO!HOO!

Corporations are People, therefore trump can pardon GM.
Let the stock price collapse,then I will buy all of it.
I'm a genius!

Strategist says

ROFL. ha ha ha what a shocker.

Jon Corzine had the right trade but it's always if you out last your call...

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

Doesn't anyone care about the duck?

I do. The duck on the bottom is a male.

Logan Mohtashami says

Commercial and industrial loans at all banks decline by $1.6 billion in a week to $2.098 trillion http://bit.ly/2hvgSfe

You do realize that these banks are lending to Europe and big business here don't you? Euro banks have no loans to make.

Logan Mohtashami says

Total consumer credit outstanding rose in October to $3.73 trillion http://bit.ly/2har8KS

Much of this is a function of auto loans. Many people are behind on those payments.

Logan Mohtashami says

Gary Anderson says

And we know by the shadow stats that full employment is not being reached

Shadow stats is a fraud it implies that 47 Million jobs were lost in 2 years and no jobs were created. It's one of the single worst things I have ever seen in my life

I don't think Shadow Stats is necessarily a fraud. I just think many who have given up are in rural America, that voted for Trump, and they have no hope of getting to where the jobs are.

Logan Mohtashami says

Gary Anderson says

The Fed rope a doped to keep it above negative GDP

Each high peak is lower, Logan. You are a chartist and you should know this.

Gary Anderson says

Shadow Stats is necessarily a fraud.

Fraud is a kind term that would imply they know they're wrong... I was being kind

Gary Anderson says

Each high peak is lower, Logan. You are a chartist and you should know this.

Not for a rolling 4 quarter cycle, that thesis could have been used for the one off number GDP print we have had that deviate from the three

Recessionary data isn't really that hard to look for if you know where to look

Gary Anderson says

Many people are behind on those payments.

95% + make their payments and most pay off their loans....

95% plus, in fact the first 3 year waive of loans are all paid off

Did you see the WaPo failure to retract the "Prop or Not" article?

They thought an "Editor's Note" claiming they gave no veracity of the information provided by Prop Or Not was enough. The entire piece praises Prop Or Not despite not identifying a single individual in the organization. It appears to be a Neocon-MIC Front Group.

They should actually pull the piece. They will, once they get sued.

Pretty sure no one has ever gotten emails out of the site, except individuals who have "befriended" another user, which results in email sharing for just those two users.

You must not be too happy about the YOY change in GDP and labor force are you? That seems to contradict some other indicators.

And btw, I am not interested in competing with you. I just think that the economy is weaker than many think. I just want to get to the bottom of it. I want to know where we stand. Certainly, there are some positives, but there are also some obvious negatives.

jazz music says

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE:

Time Magazine's man of the year!

And two Presidential Medals of Freedom.

Who would have thought that Trump would be the first IHL president.

Is this the WaPo article you are talking about:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-during-presidential-campaign/2016/12/09/31d6b300-be2a-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html?utm_term=.308f601c90ba

If so, they say:

“It is the assessment of the intelligence community that Russia’s goal here was to favor one candidate over the other, to help Trump get elected,” said a senior U.S. official briefed on an intelligence presentation made to U.S. senators. “That’s the consensus view.”
.....
The CIA shared its latest assessment with key senators in a closed-door briefing on Capitol Hill last week, in which agency officials cited a growing body of intelligence from multiple sources. Agency briefers told the senators it was now “quite clear” that electing Trump was Russia’s goal, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

The CIA presentation to senators about Russia’s intentions fell short of a formal U.S. assessment produced by all 17 intelligence agencies. A senior U.S. official said there were minor disagreements among intelligence officials about the agency’s assessment, in part because some questions remain unanswered.

Seems consistent with this new reporting. It's all going to be a moot point anyway. Trump rejects the intelligence community.

This is all a moot point because Russia didn't hack voter machines, but they exposed information about how corrupt the DNC is. If that affected the election, so be it. Not Trump's problem.