patrick.net

MMR says

Which cities/states?

One thing to be mindful of the data... The NAR has their survey data of first time home buyers, last report has 35%, running at trend 30% for many years. That is still Millions and millions of first time home buyers in this cycle. However, looking at the raw loan data, The M's are the biggest buyers of homes now, just the law of demographic math.

Mark Fleming and I presented this at the economic conference with the thesis that Student loan debt isn't the big factor on why first time home buyers aren't massive in this cycle. The educated income power given with a degree is a plus not a minus. Now that the M's are in the 30's they're the biggest buyers now of homes

The data you requested is above

The more interesting time frame is to see what happens in years 2020-2024 when there will be a higher supply of college educated dual income Americans in play and how it relates to housing demand.

In any case, as always, this isn't a deflationary thesis. Even the biggest American bear Harry Dent gives up his bearish theories in the next decade

Logan Mohtashami says

If you lower Millennials on that graph by 20%, (putting the spike near 3.8) then not much is going to change.

Logan Mohtashami says

Even the biggest American bear Harry Dent gives up his bearish theories in the next decade

Curse of the last bear.

Heraclitusstudent says

Curse of the last bear.

Funny part is that he is starting to run out of time with his own data lines. Dent believes in a mass over investment thesis, this is why he claims that home prices have to fall 42%-67% in some areas because he is using the Japan thesis here. So in theory we should have collapsed by now but I find his work to be drama queen material. Prime age labor force growth did peak in 2007 and yes we are in a rough demographic patch from 2008-2019.. all demographic people believe in this but his flaw was the grand over investment thesis.

Ironman says

What's that got to do with lazy teenagers and Millennials NOT working for their spending cash??

The best return for teenagers is to study harder and longer.

Ironman says

Because the lazy ass teenagers and Special Snowflake Millennials (like YOU) won't do it.

No. because they need to to feed their families.

The real test for the Democrats is the upcoming battle about Part D Drug Negotiation.

Wayyyy too many democrats are in the pockets of Big Pharma that wants to get paid full retail for drugs that are purchased by the billions of pills annually.

Will the Dems side with Paul Ryan against Trump?

Ironman says

You LOST the last FOUR.

You've got me confused with someone else, and your reading comprehension sucks.

Entitlemented says

During the lead up to the French Revolution, the 3rd Estate (peasants) were made to pay taxes on land while there was multiple exemptions for land tax for the wealthy.

Waiting for a discussion of how current Proposition 13 reinforces or is different from the land taxes in France pre-1700s.......

Why does everyone want to fan the flames of division left over from the last 8 years.

Alinskys 13th commandment making them do it?

We should not hate the politicians. We need to not polarize, not hate as Alinsky has suggested in his 13th commandment. We need to set aside politics of division and polarization. It worked - a little too well.

We need to be principled as a founding father - set aside politics - the election is over.

Remember, Lincoln realized that Slavery was wrong, had a heck of a hard time getting every to agree, had a revolution over the matter. He was Republican - and he was right, just very unpopular....

Tim Aurora says

That is a spin by Right wing media. Keep it up.

Hillary dogwhistled her ass off in 2007-2008. Any statement otherwise is pure River in Egypt. Here's your right wing media:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/geoffrey-dunn/hillarys-hypocrisy-clinging-to-obama-after-her-racist-dog-whistles-in-2008_b_9011244.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-rucker/can-black-people-trust-hillary_b_9312004.html
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/12/475175/-
http://theweek.com/articles/567774/hillary-clinton-needs-address-racist-undertones-2008-campaign

www.youtube.com/embed/ZIQuBvtDGbQ

SNORT.

Yes, it is a very different world today than it was late 18th Century France, but plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose, right? The common man's tolerance of unfairness vs his fear of those in power has changed little. If anything the balance is more tenuous today. Most of the "poor peasants" this time around can not only read and write, but also took a shower this morning, have mobile access to front page news and instant social access software, and would perform well against many of the rich and lazy on intelligence tests.

The government is still favoring the Have's over the Have-nots because they know the latter would spend the windfall on real commodities rather than any investment that can be artificially inflated.

The American Screwed-Over (SO) can and will yell just as loudly as anyone in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy or Ireland. The Chinese SO are finally learning how. Were you convinced the Chinese man's fear of their government was boundless? You were wrong. The number of labor strikes in China escalated by 100 percent from 2012 to 2014, and by another hundred percent by mid year 2016.

The fundamentals of today's riches are based on currency manipulation and asset class favoritism...all over again.

Is that 20% figure adjusted for inflation?

It's all Obama's fault!!!

anonymous says

Jersey

Nobody in CA gives a flying fuck about Jersey.

Ironman says

Shows Left-Wing Devouring Its Own

It's what happened in the late 60's.

deepcgi says

The fundamentals of today's riches are based on currency manipulation and asset class favoritism...all over again.

-The US cannot outsource our way to prosperity.
-Walmart being the #1 employer in 19 states is similar to a French "3rd Estate" condition.
-The US cannot graduate record number of lawyers, humanties, while Indian and Asian counterparts take up the most positions in Undergraduate/Overgraduate Sciences/Medicine.
-The US needs to get back to the progressivism that got the US into technology and manufacturing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Era
-Bringing back jobs to the US is only sustainable way to stabilize the middle class, and create opportunities for the entry level classes.
-Liberal Elistism in our inner cities, the malivestment and concentration of taxable resources is being wasted on cities vs. spent on infrastructure. Malivestment cuts across political and class boundaries.

This is so much like 1700 France, which at least had been been through the enlightenment, buoyed by Napolean to correct the other factors that layed liberty aside until the people did rise up. The US would not be free republic today if not for Jeffersons working with the Montesquie. Also the statue of Liberty was the greatest gift - dont think we could of realized it at the time! Liberty, Egalitarianism, and Fraternity, dont leave home without it.

errc says

You got three likes for what may be the stupidest post I read all day.

Stupid post are patnet rule # 6

Make that 3 likes from stupid people.

Ironman says

Straw Man says

Nobody in CA gives a flying fuck about Jersey.

Your jealousy isn't very becoming.

Enjoy your Gov. Moonbeam screwing!!

Jealosy towards Jersey? Same shit as CA with worse weather.

Quigley says

The wall bit was tongue-in-cheek.

What was "IRAQ has WMD" ?

Good. The corporate party is alarmed we may have a President that supports the common man and not the monied interests.

Entitlemented says

... buoyed by Napolean to correct the other factors that layed liberty aside until the people did rise up.

"buoyed by Napolean"???
"until the people did rise up"???

lostand confused says

Good. The corporate party is alarmed we may have a President that supports the common man and not the monied interests.

Based on his cabinet picks, the monied interests are very well represented. Corporate America is dancing in the streets.

joeyjojojunior says

Based on his cabinet picks, the monied interests are very well represented. Corporate America is dancing in the streets.

Based ont he corporate donations to the election cycle-hedge funds and wall streets donating close to 100% -we know which party candidate they supported.
Based on the action he has taken so far, we know who is supporting. Dems could lose a generation by their foolishness.

lostand confused says

Based ont he corporate donations to the election cycle-hedge funds and wall streets donating close to 100% -we know which party candidate they supported.

Based on the action he has taken so far, we know who is supporting. Dems could lose a generation by their foolishness.

They supported the party that they thought was going to win. As they always do.

Not sure what you mean by the action he has taken so far? You mean handing over Treasury to Goldman Sachs? Handing over State Dept. to Exxon? Appointing a warmonger AG that supports the police state taking innocent citizen's assets with no cause? Hiring a corrupt Congressman who is not only bought and paid for by the Health Care Industry, and not only traded on inside information, but actually made policy decisions to help the companies he invested in so he could further line his pockets. Not to mention his tax policy--which is a giant middle finger to his voters.

Dems could gain a generation by Trump's foolishness. They just need to get out of his way and let him eff up.

joeyjojojunior says

They supported the party that they thought was going to win. As they always do.

Nah-they always hedge. As for the rest-blah, blah, blah. These are people immensely successful who do not need to do favors to maintain the jetsetting lifestyle. Liek trump who has created so many jobs already-maybe they made their money and now want to do some good for America.

Unlike the dems-where politics and lobbying are the means to their lifestyle.

lostand confused says

These are people immensely successful who do not need to do favors to maintain the jetsetting lifestyle.

Rationalize much?

"There are no such thing as bad people, only prisons that make people bad." Snowflake Saying #32

MMR says

“I’m definitely a Trump-generated, new-wave feminist.” ― Tristan, 17, N.Y.

It's not going to get you any pussy, kid.

Ironman says

Ahhh, here's another of her blabbering, clueless statements.

She is such an embarrassment. On behalf of all Californians, I apologize to the American people.

Ironman says

President Obama’s 1,385 commutation grants – which includes 504 life sentences – is also more than the total number of commutations issued by the past 12 presidents combined. (Kinda like adding MORE debt than all the other President's combined, too).

And with today’s 64 pardons, the President has now granted a total of 212 pardons.

Most of them are probably his "sons" It's a family thing.

Ironman says

Update: 60 Democratic lawmakers now say they are skipping Donald Trump's inauguration ceremony on Jan. 20, a number that grew Saturday after the president-elect dismissed a congressman who is a civil rights icon as "all talk."

Trump does not care. He is hoping they never show up in Congress too.
By the way, what percent of the democrat lawmakers does the "60" represent?

It's sort of like asking for an abortion before you are even pregnant.

Brooks knows he has to boycott or he will be boycotted.
A hand in someone's wallet gets their attention.

https://www.yahoo.com/music/garth-brooks-clarifies-why-wont-play-trump-inauguration-033650318.html

Ironman says

Strategist says

By the way, what percent of the democrat lawmakers does the "60" represent?

There is 194 Dems in the House right now, so it's almost 1/3 as of right now. I'm sure by Friday it will be more.

Fucking sore losers.

Are any of them moving in with him in his new digs?

Ironman--

Do you not know what rationalize means?

Ceffer says

Are any of them moving in with him in his new digs?

Nope. They will go back to their old digs, and do what they do best. Be criminals.

Strategist says

Fucking sore losers.

WRONG!

AMERICAN CONSTITUTION! & BILL OF RIGHTS! FREEDOM! LOVERS!

They WILL be fucking up Republicans with their BOYCOTTS & PROTEST!
Republican can do nothing. They have to take it.