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Oil Shock


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2005 Sep 23, 2:25am   29,207 views  276 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

By Randy H

Oil Shock! It now appears that the US will suffer another severe blow to its oil refining infrastructure. With this being the second major shock to the supply-side of energy in less than a month, and with oil, gas and petrol being major inputs into the US economy, how could this affect the overall US economic situation. Could inflationary energy pressures, rising interest rates, and worsening deficits finally pop the real-estate bubbles in the “frothy” RE markets?

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156   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 4:18pm  

The article goes on to say that there is a misconception that the tax benefits of owning make purchasing a better option, at least when the P/E ratio is so disconnected like it is now.

People hate taxes so much that they are willing to pay more just to get a deduction.

157   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 4:19pm  

If having higher interest rates and high oil price ( > $60 per barrel) is going to impact your style of living, then you were not leading the life that have earned..you were probably leading the RE bubble life.

Very well said.

158   SQT15   2005 Sep 24, 4:23pm  

People hate taxes so much that they are willing to pay more just to get a deduction.

lol
I can't tell you how many people who have told me I should buy just to get the tax deductions. Doesn't anyone own a calculator anymore?

159   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 4:28pm  

I can’t tell you how many people who have told me I should buy just to get the tax deductions. Doesn’t anyone own a calculator anymore?

Perhaps they should pay me some money right now and I will give them a 40% refund next April. ;)

(Not solicitation of money)

160   SQT15   2005 Sep 24, 4:31pm  

Peter P

I think I want to come work for you.

(not a solicitation for a job)

161   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 4:35pm  

South Bay and East Bay lower-end inventory continues to swell. Is lunarpark from Ben's blog here?

162   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 4:39pm  

I think I want to come work for you.

And then you will become one of the Bay Area commuters...

I thought you loathe them. ;)

163   SQT15   2005 Sep 24, 4:44pm  

Awwwww I can't work from home? I thought that was the wave of the future. Actually I don't loathe the commutes, I just dislike what it's done to our housing market. But I understand if someone doesn't have a better option----- but how do they do it? I can't imagine driving so many hours a day!

164   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 4:46pm  

I think many "BA commuters" telecommute. Our company has some people working from the Sacramento Metro area.

165   SQT15   2005 Sep 24, 4:51pm  

I think many “BA commuters” telecommute. Our company has some people working from the Sacramento Metro area.

Judging by the traffic, telecommuting still hasn't fully caught on. I've known quite a few people who share housing in the bay for the work week and only come home on the weekends. I'd rather rent. ;)

166   OO   2005 Sep 24, 4:53pm  

Why don't we talk about if telecommute is getting popular, where around BA would you like to live?

I just came back from a party way east from East Bay, man, the new developments there are just astounding. And even more astounding is the price. They developers are trying to sell a 2,500 sft house on a 4,500 sft lot for something like 800K. Grant it these are brand new developments, but they are so plastic and blatantly boring, and there is really no geographical distinctiveness whatsoever. I won't even touch these homes at half of 800K. I wonder how hot it gets further east in the midst of summer.

If I can telecommute, Santa Cruz will be on the top of my list.

167   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 5:08pm  

Why don’t we talk about if telecommute is getting popular, where around BA would you like to live?

Let me see...

- Vancouver, BC
- Las Vegas, NV
- San Diego, CA
- Victoria, BC

(Not in any paricular order)

168   SQT15   2005 Sep 24, 5:11pm  

I don't have a RE strategy so to speak because I'm not interested in it as an investment, but rather as a home. I think we're pretty realistic about the whole thing, I don't expect a scenario where we swoop in and buy up a bunch of cheap foreclosures. I think we'll wait until the market comes down enough for us to comfortably buy and then we will.

I was joking about the telecommuting. I expect to stay home with my kids until they're older and then maybe go back to work, I haven't decided if I would stay in teaching or go to a different field. I guess whatever is most convenient with the kids. But I actually like the Sacto area, I just like to complain about how pretentious the newly flush RE genius' in my area are becoming.

169   OO   2005 Sep 24, 5:12pm  

It's interesting that somebody who likes Vancouver BC would even put Vegas on the list. Peter P, Your list is like one of those IQ tests, which city doesn't fit?

170   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 5:13pm  

Even if I telecommute, I still need a place with easy access to a divided highway. I cannot drive on 2-lane highways every day.

171   SQT15   2005 Sep 24, 5:13pm  

Btw, I'm going to be really busy over the next week, so I am not going to put up any new threads. I know Surfer-X was going to put up the next one, and Kurt mentioned adding one too. Hopefully more people will step in as I am going to be out of commission for at least a few days.

172   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 5:14pm  

It’s interesting that somebody who likes Vancouver BC would even put Vegas on the list. Peter P, Your list is like one of those IQ tests, which city doesn’t fit?

LOL

You are right!

174   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 24, 5:57pm  

Regarding impact of gas prices:
In San Jose (at least), PG&E has sent notices to expect something to the effect of 42% higher costs this winter (perhaps just on gas?). *That* will surely crimp consumer spending. Look for slow xmas sales if winter comes early & cold...fall sure has come early.

175   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 6:00pm  

In San Jose (at least), PG&E has sent notices to expect something to the effect of 42% higher costs this winter (perhaps just on gas?).

Considering how much NG has gone up, the increase is well justified IMHO. Long winter follows a brutal October. Planets appear to align for something major this year.

176   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 24, 6:07pm  

Wow, Peter P, that's a rather surprisingly doom&gloom article. Here's what I found this a bit astounding:
"Almost 40 percent of credit-card holders pay only the minimum balance, according to Cardweb.com. The average household credit-card balance is around $9000, according to Boston's Babson Capital. Previously, families paid a minimum of $180 a month. Now, they will have to pay $360 each month."

And this is surprising in that it echos lots of expressed sentiment on this blog:

"The basis of the American economy is consumption financed by debt. The economy's health is measured by its growth, and its growth is dependent on consumer spending and debt. But consumer debt is too high, income isn't growing, and jobs keep disappearing overseas. "It may implode," warns Adler. A perfect storm is brewing -- and San Diego may be in the eye of it."

177   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 6:17pm  

SJ_Jim, we definitely have an economy of make-believe.

Beliefs may shift during flight...

Donald Kohn:

"But if current expectations are badly distorted, then the way forward may not be so smooth. Eventually, reality always asserts itself over wishful thinking, and such realignments are sometimes abrupt, as illustrated by the collapse of the high-tech bubble a few years ago."

I love this guy. Let's hope that he succeeds Greenspan. I do not want the helicopter man to be the next Fed chairman.

178   OO   2005 Sep 24, 6:37pm  

Coming from a conservative Asian culture, my parents used to buy their primary residences with cash, not because they couldn't take out a mortgage, but they would only buy a home that they could pay off right away with cash. Their philosophy is, if I have to pay for something by borrowing, then I shouldn't buy, it is beyond my affordability.

So far, I have had 0 credit card credit and always bought my vehicles on cash, and drove them to the ground. I was astnoished to find out that some of my colleagues, all earning 6-figure salaries, carry credit card debt in the range of 10,000 to 30,000, on top of their car loans, student loans etc. Some of them quoted items to me in terms of minimum monthly payments, like, this LCD TV will only cost 259 a month, or, this cruise vacation will only add another 125 per month, it's so smart of me to do remodeling since I pulled out an home equity loan that is tax deductable... The list goes on and on, it is all about spending now and dealing with the monthly payment later.

I have to say, some Americans are psychologically sick, they need to see a shrink about their spending habits. I sometimes feel like starting a seminar teaching people how to hold back their urge to spend.

179   Peter P   2005 Sep 24, 6:53pm  

Well, debt is not all bad, but revolving debt is all bad. Using long-term debt to meet short-term needs is extremely bad.

Their philosophy is, if I have to pay for something by borrowing, then I shouldn’t buy, it is beyond my affordability.

I do not agree with the American debt culture, but this philosophy is a bit over-restrictive IMO. We can discuss further on this.

180   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 12:40am  

StanMan, last post was dead on. I don't know the thoughts are so hard to capture for many.

I"m going to start a new thread . . .

181   tsusiat   2005 Sep 25, 2:01am  

Notes to Escaped from DC, from earlier in this thread -

"Tsusiat wrote . . .
“It’s easy to pull stuff off the internet from some right wing think tank.”

I quote a Canadian Supreme Court decision from Summer 05 and you accuse me of cherry picking information?"

You don't understand the context of that decision or its actual implications. Go read some more.

"You asked me what I meant by the U.S. subsidizing your medicine . . .

When Phizer develops a new drug that wouldn’t exist without it’s capitalist motivation, it sets a price of X$ in the U.S.. Because the Canadian government will only pay Phizer .6X for the drug, the net effect is the subsidation of Canadian drug costs by U.S. consumers."

What are you talking about - it is Phizer who agrees to sell at that price! That's called market economics, and if a customer, no matter how large or small, says I can afford to pay x and the seller agrees, they are probably not doing it as a loss leader!

"in 2003 the average Canadian waited more than four months for treatment by a specialist once the referral was made by a general practitioner.

A simple MRI requires, on average, a three-month wait in Canada."

Well, let's see, the reason for those waits is that people from all walks of life have access to the medical system. The fact rich people can afford to jump the line and go elsewhere is no reason to switch systems unless you are a millionaire!

"Terry Salo, a Canadian resident of Victoria, British Columbia, availed himself of hip replacement in Madras, India after waiting more than a year for the “free” service in his home province."

My step-father had a double hip replacement in the hospital in Victoria BC - he waited a year. Cost if he had to pay - about $200,000. Cost in his case - $0. Which system do you think he preferred? Do you think he minded waiting? And before you say he didn't pay for it, that is the point of paying higher taxes through the years, it all evens out in the end.

Without this medical system his choice would have been, sell my house to fix my hips, or just keep on getting weaker. Not a nice choice to have to make at 75.

"And of course, Tsusiat, let’s not forget that the very rich in Canada have a very good solution to your system - they come here! Isn’t that great? The rich use the U.S. system, the well-off negotiate the system in Canada, and the poor canadians get screwed."

On what basis are you saying the poor get screwed? Are you implying the poor do not have access to the medical system in Canada? You don't know what you're talking about! The fact that they underutilize the system has more to do with socio-economic factors than availability - that is to say, if you are homeless and off your gourd and have no family, you are not as likely to attend a walk in clinic as a young middle class mother with 3 kids.

Additionally, as native Canadians are the poorest and most geographically scattered community in Canada, they are part of that statisitic of under-representation, and a US style medical system would make things worse for them, not better.

BTW, my mother had breast cancer, and was treated wonderfully. There was no delay, she had a lumpectomy within two months of needing it.

My father had serious liver cancer last year that required removal of 80% of his liver - he is still alive and doing well. If he had had to pay on short notice for the treatment he received, he would be DEAD!

Did you know that waiting lists are for people who can WAIT!

My father did not have to wait - MRIs and CT scans occurred within two weeks of him seeing the doctor, he saw three specialists, and received top class treatment.

Finally, I have to laugh at your one sided arguments.

I at least attempt to refute the weak points in your arguments, why don't you try to do that? Why no reply to the statistics about infant mortality being higher in the US than Canada? That is not indicative of a better medical system!

As far as your military subsidizing Canada's defence, I have to laugh. If the US was not bent on dominating the world militarily, your military could be a half or a quarter the size and still protect the United States. Do you think you would be at greater risk of invasion in that case? I have to laugh - no, you would not.

If Canada was to increase our military spending to a level similar to the United States, would that be a normal thing for a country to do? And since our only potential military enemy in the real world is basically the United States, what would the point of that be? Do you think the Pentagon would be happy if Canada had an independent military, adopting an independent policy, of several hundred thousand combat ready troops?

I guess the only other potential military threat might be China, there are a lot of Chinese here, I guess they could all put on combat fatigues one day and tak over the airports and railyards and ports...LOL!

Here are a couple of very interesting lists - comparisons of expenditures on military for all the countries in the world.

US is #3 behing Israel and Singapore - $935.63 per person - newsflash, YOU CAN'T AFFORD THIS ANYMORE!

Do you remember how Reagan bankrupted the Soviet Union by forcing them to overspend on their military?

Canada is #30 - $239.62 per person - which by the way, we can afford!

And check out this expenditure graph for US debt in 2004 as influenced by the military. BTW, these expenditures are not defending Canada, what a joke, they are being spent in Iraq among other far overseas places that we could better have dealt with other ways! Please note, I personally view what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq as completely different, so don't bother going there.

http://www.g2mil.com/Oct2003.htm

Can't wait to hear your ranting response which will, of course, ignore all the facts you can't absorb!

tsusiat

182   tsusiat   2005 Sep 25, 2:13am  

Opps, here is the other link mentioned in my previous post, on military spending per person per country

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/mil_exp_dol_fig_cap

tsusiat

183   Zephyr   2005 Sep 25, 2:18am  

The Social Security system is mostly a pay as you go arrangement, with some accumulation of assets for future needs. The government refers to these accumulated assets as “surplus” because the funds are not need right now.

Pay as you go is fine if the age distribution of the population shifts only minimally over the decades. However, we have an unusually large cohort in the baby boomers. They will be too many for the younger generations to support in retirement on a purely pay as you go basis. This is why the current taxes are higher than what is needed right now, so they can generate surpluses for this future need.

However, the surpluses are not large enough to fund this fully. It is estimated that the surpluses will be exhausted around 2042. After that the current income will cover only 75% of the social security outflow. To cover the deficiency the benefits must be cut or the tax must be increased (by 33%).

It would be much better to fund this in advance at a much lower rate. We need to put more money onto the surpluses while the baby boomers are still working and paying into the system. If we raise the tax by 1% now the system should never come up short.

However, the generations after the baby boomers will not have the same problem. They will have a more normal population distribution following them and social security will be healthy for them, after the current challenge has been fixed. This is a one time problem caused by the population bulge of the baby boom.

184   Zephyr   2005 Sep 25, 2:47am  

I think the shortfall should be fixed with an immediate 1% tax increase. Pay as you go is inadequate, but we do not need to go all the way to full pre-funding.

As for individual accounts, I think Social Security should be provide a basic minimal income to everyone at retirement. Those who want more than that must pay for it themselves. Individual retirement accounts are a good policy to encourage savings. However, I believe that the Social Security system must stand on its own without individual accounts.

185   Zephyr   2005 Sep 25, 3:16am  

BTW, I am refering to a tax increase of 1% of income. Not 1% of the current tax.

186   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 25, 4:54am  

Zeph,
Was SS conceived of, and always considered to be, "pay as you go", or has it evolved into that fact?

187   Zephyr   2005 Sep 25, 6:12am  

It started that way. It's a social insurance scheme, where everyone pays in and everyone has the chance of using (needing) it.

It's much like paying for public education, except that we all get our education before we pay for others to get theirs.

With the retirement benefit of SS we pay during our working lives for the retirement benefits of those who are no longer working (and paying in).

Public Education and Social Security are inter-generational support programs.

188   Zephyr   2005 Sep 25, 6:15am  

The very first SS retirees paid almost nothing in and recieved pensions for life.

189   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 7:00am  

Tsusiat, I respectfully note that you seem to be extremely patriotic. I think that's a very bad thing. It's coloring everything you write.

I note that MRI's take a long time to get in Canada, and you note that "cousing Bob got one in 2 days." So? If I said 99% of grenades will explode if the pin is pulled, would you refute that by saying, "Cousin Bob pulled a pin on one and it didn't explode." So? The point wasn't that EVERY wait is too long. The point was that waits, on average are too long.

I call your resonse "cherry picking a single data point to refute a trend."

You go on about U.S. military. Somebody already posted this, but I'll note it again. It is the U.S. Military that keeps Canada safe. You don't think the Japenese or the Chiinese would consider taking over Canada if they could?

Let me be clear. If Japan knew back in 1935 that it could invade Canada without the US stepping in, you'd be eating frozen sushi right now and speaking Japanese.

Don't believe that? Your patriotism is blinding you.

One last point. Tsusiat wrote, very Tsusiisticly, . . .

What are you talking about - it is Phizer who agrees to sell at that price! That’s called market economics, and if a customer, no matter how large or small, says I can afford to pay x and the seller agrees, they are probably not doing it as a loss leader!

Please seriously try to get this point. I'm not asking you to say that America is great. I'm not asking you to swear eternal fealty to the Red White and Blue. I'm asking you to consider the information and perhaps reasonably come to a conclusion that is counter to your central thesis . . .

Phizer will sell to Canada at a loss or very low profit because it is better than NOT selling to Canada. But there is no "market economics" operating. The only reason Canada can "negotiate" the drug for less is because U.S. people are paying a lot more for the drugs.

Try this if you believe that "market economics" are in operation here.

What if every U.S. patient got their drugs exclusively from Canada at the "negotiated" price? What do you think would happen?

One of these two things would happen -
Phizer would absorb a huge drop in profits and go bankrupt . . . or . . .
Phizer would tell Canada - either pay 30% more or you can't have them.

Why? Because the drugs are only profitable if the huge U.S. market is paying a premium for them.

Please try to see that. It's not a slam on Canada. Really.

Here's an example . . .

Phizer invests billions making drug X.
It finally clears the clinical proving tests, and the FDA approves its use in the US. A patent in the U.S. is also obtained.

Phizer immediately begins selling the drug in the U.S. for 100 bucks a pop.

At 100 bucks a pop, Phizer makes a huge amount of money on the drug in the U.S. - The profits help pay for further drug developments.

Phizer now looks at the Canadian Market, which is about 12% that of the U.S..

The Canadian government looks and says, "we won't pay more than 40 bucks for a pill."

Phizer now has two options - 1. Don't sell to Canada and make no money there. or 2. Sell to Canada and make 40 extra bucks a pill, where the pill costs about 10cents to manufacture.

Phizer is a corporate that was created for profit. Phizer wants the money, so it choses 2.

But when the entire U.S. starts getting pills through Canada, then the 10 fold larger market of the U.S. is now only paying 40 bucks a pill, and Phizer starts losing money hand over fist.

Phizer will first try to use its political clout to get the Stooges in Congress to prevent medicine from coming in from Canada. They will come up with every conceivable lie. They will say there are "drug safety" issues. They will say that there are fakes. What they won't say is what they know is true, which is . . . "we will lose money."

If this works, then Phizer is all set. U.S. folks get screwed and have to buy the pill at 100 a pop while the Government puts a gun to your head.

If this doesn't work, which it may not, then guess what?

Phizer says to Canada - "it's 95 bucks a pop or you can't have it."

Then Phizer won't care where the U.S. people get their drugs from, and the U.S. subsidation of the Canadian price will end.

Now, Tsusiat, please tell me which part of the example was incorrect.

190   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 9:00am  

Social Security is the greatest anti-poverty program ever invented. Before it, 50% of all seniors lived in poverty, many in the poor house and malnutrion amongst the over 65 set was widespread.

Now the over 65 crowd has the lowest poverty rate in the nation and stories of retirees being forced to survive on cat food are non existent.

Has the US government *ever* defaulted on any of its debts? None ever, as far as I know.

The SS trust fund is as solid as the US dollar, for whatever that is worth. If worst comes to worst, the treasury can just print more dollars to fufill its obligations. And with the huge Boomer cohort getting ready to retire and voting in record numbers, don't think that they are going to be willing to sacrifice any of what they "earned" to help society as a whole.

SS outflows will exceed inflows in about 10 years, neccessitating a tax increase or cuts in other government spending. Some will wail like it is the end of the road, but it is just economics enforcing demographics. With fewer workers and more retirees, something just has to give. Either the retirees will have to accept a lower standard of living or the workers will. With the retirees outnumbering us in votes, I am pretty sure I know what is going to give.

In the longer run, the Social Security trust fund will "run out" around 2042 under current projections. But his is pretty far into the future to be projecting. For example, five years ago, it was predicted that the SS trust fund would "run out" in 2037. Five years later, the date has been pushed forward five years. Why is that? Productivity growth has been far higher than the government projected. In fact, if we can continue with the productivity growth that we have had for the last decade (2.5%) instead of the numbers projected (1.8%) we will not even run the trust fund empty.

I actually expect that the economy will continue to grow at this higher rate, as we emphasize more and more the knowledge skills which allow us to work more effectively and as the education level of the population continues to rise.

So yeah, there really is no pile of money in a bank somewhere, but there is a social contract we signed with the Boomers 23 years ago, in which they agreed to pay more Social Security tax, which would be repaid to them, with interest, when they retired. Now Reagan decided to return that money straight to the taxpayers, mostly the wealthy taxpayers, in the form of tax cuts. I was opposed to this at the time, but looking back on it, it was not such a bad strategy: he was counting on the tax cuts stimulating the economy enough that they would more than pay for themselves with a larger tax base 50 years down the road when the bill came due. And by giving the money mostly to the investor class, he was probably counting on them to wisely invest in a way that grow the economy the most. At least I can hope that is what he was thinking. Or he just might have been thinking what Grover Norquist referred to when he said he wanted a government "small enough to drown in a bathtub." Which seems like a particularly unfortunate phrase to use in the wake of Katrina.

I am in favor of continuing Social Security as it is: it is a useful and important safety network and insurance program. I can invest my 401k money with more risk and more potential reward, knowing that I have Social Security to fall back upon. I am positive it will still be there for me when I retire in 30 years. It might end up being cut back in benefits 1/3, but I doubt even that will happen. What I *am* worried about is what the tax rate will be on my 401k withdrawals. I would not be surprised if they equalled 50%. To a certain extent this is unfair, since I will be penalized for saving for my retirement and I will end up subsidizing those who blew it all on vacations, new cars, etc. I am willing to live with that. In any case, I don't have much choice.

There is a strong strain of pessimism throughout this blog. I find it interesting and I think I have realized something that has puzzled me since I started posting here. How can so many high income people being doing so poorly financially? Then I realized it: you are all very conservative investors. I am much more optimistic by nature and I have had pretty good overall returns from my investments. Right now, I am in a house in San Francisco (up probably 50% since I bought it in early 2003) and emerging markets (up 30% so far this year). Sure I have my down years, but in the long run, I probably make a better return because of the risks I take.

If we have a 30s style decade of depression, I am sure you will all end up ahead of me. My house would get repossessed by the bank, I would be out of a job and my overseas investments would probably tank, too. I have a couple of pounds of gold stashed away in a safety deposit box, but that wouldn't last for long.

But I am literally betting my life savings on that not happening. Let's check in in five years and see who made the better investment decisions.

Remember the discussion we had four weeks ago about how to profit from the coming crash in the real estate market? I went out and bought puts which are up 50%. You see change and turn that into danger and fear. I see change and read it as opportunity. Did anyone else take advantage of that discussion. Okay, I am not giving credit to anyone who actually sold their house and have decided to rent. I am not sure who that is, but there has got to be at least one of you. I know a bunch of you have been waiting to buy, believing that prices have to come down, but I think most of you have been waiting for over five years, so unless prices drop 50%, you made a bad choice.

There is an idea for a thread: how are you positioning yourself financially to benefit from the downturn in the housing market? What do you invest in today?

I am willing to "moderate" that thread, but be warned in advance, my idea of moderation is pretty hands off.

191   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 9:52am  

Oh, one other thing. It is not Social Security that is going to bust us, it is Medicare. I think we all realize that though.

192   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 10:28am  

Jimbo, I just got a call from Randomhouse. They'd like to publish your book.

;-)

193   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 11:09am  

Yeah, I didn't realize how long winded I had gotten when I posted it. But we have been all over the place in this thread, so I had a lot to say.

I will try to break it into more digestable chunks next time :-P

194   Jimbo   2005 Sep 25, 11:20am  

Almost every other industrialized nation has a health care system similar to Canada's with similar results: they spend half as much as the US does on healthcare and get either similar or better results as measured by overall life span, percentage of infants dying in the first year, percentage of the population on long term disability, disease rates in the population, etc.

Escaped from DC, you claim that Tsusiat “cherry picking a single data point to refute a trend” when you do the same thing with your MRI data. MRI wait times is not a good indicator of overall health system effectiveness and you know it. I think you might be picking a statistic to point out a general fact that when you give something away for free, it tends to be oversubscribed. I bet if you need an emergency MRI, you get it right away in Canada.

Health care is great in the US, if you can afford it. But there is a huge and growing population in the US that cannot afford it. These are the people who are not getting any MRIs at all, except in true emergencies. These are the people not getting their yearly physicals, vaccines and other preventative health care they need to keep overall health care costs low. So Canada saves a lot of money by giving this away for free and saving in the long run. At the very least, we need to find a way to do that in the United States.

195   Escaped from DC   2005 Sep 25, 12:34pm  

Jimbo, you're killing me here man.

you wrote . . .
"Escaped from DC, you claim that Tsusiat “cherry picking a single data point to refute a trend” when you do the same thing with your MRI data."

OK, no I don't.

The "MRI data" example was ONE data point that I provided to support the following conclusion - That wait times in Canada were significant and problematic.

BUT, that datapoint was not given alone. In addition to that datapoint, I provided several other examples, including wait times for breast radiation, which led to a massive lawsuit, and a case that involved wait times that went to the Supreme Court, which decided the waits were intolerable in some instances.

So the MRI data was not offered, alone, to support the point that the Canadian health care system sucks, but . . .

rather was provided along with several other corroborating points to support the notion that there is a wait list problem in Canada, which . . .

supports my conclusion that Canada's health care system is problematic, at best.

Finally, Jimbo, I understand your point. Your point is that things in the U.S. are bad and need to be better.

I agree. Our health care system is very problematic. I just don't agree that putting the govt. in charge will do anything but make it worse.

With regard to your contention that Canada is a model we should emulate, however, I also disagree.

I think the notion of making it illegal to own private insurance is anti-American, and I mean that in the Founding Fathers kind of way.

Based on what I've read, Canada's system is getting more problematic with time.

Finally, I'd suggest the following as first steps toward reducing health care costs in the U.S. . . .

Put an end to frivolous lawsuits.

Make damage awards for non-frivolous lawsuits reasonable.

Put the screws on the AMA and other monopolies to get rid of sub-par performers. It makes me sick when I read about physicians who cut off the wrong leg and then move to another state to practice.

Allow all Americans to access medicine from anywhere, and end the American subsidation of the socialist medicince countries.

Get 90% of kids off ritalin.

Stop diagnosing Adult Parenting Disorder as "ADD" "ADHD" and whatever other concoction of letters will make parents feel less responsible.

Have Americans stop stuffing their fat pieholes with crap food.

Make nicotene ILLEGAL. The government tells you that you can crap into no more than 1.6 gallons of water, but it is fine with you sucking down a monstrous mutagen that is physically extremely addictive.

Establish a better hierarchy in medicine. In other words, you don't need to see somebody who has got 10 years of medical training when you have a cold. Here's an example - Went to see a doc about a mole on my kid's back. Didn't think much of it until I get the bill. The guy walked in, looked at his back, and said, "come back in a few years because it's tough on kids this young." Get the bill, 210 bucks. The guy was a surgeon. WTF? Why is a surgeon looking at a mole? A freaking janitor could have told me "come back." And by the way, I went 2 months later to a dermatologist and had it taken off in office - for less than 200 bucks.

Change the whole medical school theory. You simply don't need to go to school for 4 years to be a dermatologist, booby surgeon, or whatever.

Stop having insurance pay for birth control, pregnancies, boner medications, and other optional, non-health issues.

Have a la carte plans where people like me can choose basic catastrophic coverage and people who want plans where they get birth control for "free" can pay extra premiums for the fake freeness.

[the next two are not serious suggestions, although they'd help]
Burn all X-Boxs, Playstations, and all the other garbage machines that help keep kids fat.

Have 1 hour per day limiters on the Idiot Boxes.

I have more, but I have to run to the doctor to get some sleeping pills.

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