patrick.net

DinOR,

the HF limit is lowered to 5K only? That's like a retail fund of the lower end.

FAB said:
An unidentified threadmaster posted What’s Next?

Sorry, that was me. It was late past midnight by the time I posted the topic. I was working out various scenarios on the ride back from an after-work party, which is what gave me the idea for the thread.

Thanks for everyone's excellent contributions so far. Just one comment though - I didn't mean to start a discussion on whether rents were going to continue going up. The example was just to illustrate a chain of cause-and-effects to lead from a premise to a conclusion.

Almost every premise I could think of seemed to lead (at least logically) to a fairly steep correction. So I wanted to see if the blog could collectively brainstorm a few more of these.

SP

Randy H Says:
Threadmasters should try to remember to sign their articles as many readers like to know who the author is.

As I said, it was an oversight, probably caused by a preoccupied, sleep-deprived (and perhaps mildly inebriated) mind. :-)

I agree it is a good idea to sign threads - however, I have seen other threads in the past that did not specify an author.

SP

God damn I'm on my deck right now ass packing Confused Renter's Mom, and I must say that the summer corn looks good on my little buddy. I'm no longer confused as I went to Craigslist and found out Confused Renter posts there as LittledickSFonhiskneespieceofshitcocksucker, yes quite a title but hey at least the troll is still giving a go.

I’m not sure what Randy means by “adjusting for regional inflation factors”

I think what he means is that on a cost adjusted basis that the bias always shifts towards the spread in such that the holding buyers who adjust the carry trade given the float on the Euro dollar Vs. Yen market on the London exchange any given day minus of course any transactions floated across the bond yield divided by the cost of money times the Fed charge in reverse. If you factor in the cost of money divided by the absolute value of M3 times 4 then you come to the conclusion that it is as it has always been, you lose.

I hope this helps.

- "of course" my commision.

"VC" = Ventura Communist

I always thought Tahoe was a Chevy?

here's 2 links on recent OT topics that just showed up, somewhat belatedly -- hypoallergenic cats in CA, and GM crops. maybe the Allerca site triggered the earlier discussion anyhow... just FYI, not trying to spark any new discussion:

High-tech cat won't cause allergies

just about the whole dam story on GM politics - lots of good links in this article - like the 'instant expert' ref, we're good at that...

Instant Expert: GM Organisms - 04 September 2006 - New Scientist

@Suman,

How do you become a quant programmer? Is a programming background good enough or do they look for a financial background as well? Would a lot of motivation and a good grounding in financial concepts do, without a degree?

And, if you can name a few quant companies that are in the bay area, that would help a lot…Am thinking of pursuing the financial engineering program at berkeley, but not sure yet.

In many ways quant programmers are similar to game programmers. Parts of it are truly unique from regular business software work, but at least as much isn't unique. The problem is that those inside the industry think it's unique.

Getting into most HFs as a QP is tough. They like to pick the top .01% academics, but they also want people with lots of real experience. I'm not sure if there is an average profile for a QP, but most will have an advanced degree, many have a Phd, and some kind of math-centric academic background is common. The guys I personally know have backgrounds like: BS-(Math or Physics or Business or Econ or CS) with either outstanding grades or some good years of experience. MS-(CS, Finance or Econ; much less commonly a MBA) grades much more important for grad studies.

As to work experience, any experience you can get with a HF or in the HF service industry is extremely valuable and will help you get considered for other jobs. A lot of times a QP might find his first HF job only lasts 6-12mos, because the fund is small and either fails or cuts costs in a bad year. But that experience will find you another job pretty quickly.

The only other thing I can think of is that only the really big HFs have a "career path" for QPs. At smaller HFs you may be expected to do programming, modeling, and research.

Things they look for:
* Solid coding. Prove you're "too smart to be coding Oracle apps for some corporate IT department".
* Experience or familiarity with math tools, usually Matlab, less often Mathematica.
* Often stats programming/tools, usually SAS.
* Heavy Excel. Often VBA.
* Superstar credentials, work and academic.

There are hundreds of HFs in SF and Larkspur. Most are small and you'll have trouble finding out who they are. There are a couple big shops that you can target and try to land an interview with:

- BGI (Barclays Global Investors). Look in their alternative investments division. These guys run probably the largest global macro fund in the world, and do all their dev out of SF.

- DE Shaw. Very hard to get into, but if you can you can get a job anywhere after a couple years there.

Finally, I'd say go to vault.com and buy their $30 career guide on Hedge Funds. Probably you should also spring for the general career guide for jobs in Finance. These guides will help you talk the right jargon, understand how compensation works, and get inside the heads of how HFs operate, hire, and promote.

bonus link - IMF's long, hard look at itself might be too late

plenty of material in that article for anti-globalists AND econometricians...

Prove you’re “too smart to be coding Oracle apps for some corporate IT department”.

hey!

I’m wondering if Randy knows if there is anything stopping a “day trader” from calling himself a “hedge fund manager”…

I'm wondering if FAB knows of any "day traders" with a Prime Brokerage, SEC registration requirements, and Series licensed traders?

There are plenty of bad HFs, but these aren't generally Junior Richy running around "managing" the family jewels. Much more often they are bad-boy IB traders -- usually top traders, often from modest backgrounds, who are out to prove their IB bosses were jackoffs. They get into trouble because they take winning trading strategies from one area, like equities, and try to replicate them in other area, like commodities. For example, there are a couple HF managers running around doing long/short pair trades in natural gas. We should start a dead pool on how long until those blow up.

Assuming I am an apologist for the HF industry would be wrong. I have become extremely critical of their supposed "uncorrelated returns", which have proven to not really hold up well over time.

Am thinking of pursuing the financial engineering program at berkeley, but not sure yet.

Don’t bother, there will be an Indian waiting to take that job for about what they will pay you to pick up trash in a park. Better off getting a job in the service sector or if you really want to do that kind of work, move to India.

I wouldn't worry about offshoring/outsourcing as a real threat to a MFE degree. I've seen no evidence this is likely to occur anytime soon. The real risk of an MFE is that the degree is relatively new.

Erc,

Good question. One of the misunderstandings regarding AAA rated munis is that while it's true they are insured it simply means the insurer steps in to make int. payments while the issuer sorts things out. There have been cases (particularly w/ revenue backed bonds) where redemption wasn't possible. At least to the liking of bond holders. Serial redemptions mean you may have to wait in line OR hold until maturity.

Since you're in what sounds like a fund most of this is more the managers problem than it is yours. My 2 cents? If you're not in an AMT situation you can look at funds that have not been "scrubbed" of non-AMT holdings or even a "national muni" BF for better diversification. Also (b/c we're such big fans of ETF's here) there are several that yield 8-9+%, pay monthly and are fully liquid. One that I've used is EVV. Everyone here has taken their turn flogging MBS (yours truly included) and while EVV is leveraged and contains MBS, they are "seasoned" w/avg. duration of 12-16 years so the downside is more prepayment of the loan rather than default of the loan. Randy H can explain that better than I but you get the idea. www.investinginbonds.com has a great "Taxable Equivelant Yield" calculator and a LOT of great general information.

NIA

Oh just a quick correction!

Serial Redemptions can also occur when the issuer has the window to refinance at lower rates in which case Murphy's Law dicatates that your bonds will be recalled first! Sir, your CUSIP Number is up!

Can anyone else think of a scenario where you get "re-called"? In know there are others, just can't think of 'em now.

Since Suman brought up financial engineering, I'd like to report this tiny data point.

I spoke to my cousin (the one looking at US finance and accounting programs) this Friday and apparently, financial engineering is all the rage in the cream of China's education system. My cousin said that the people who have a seriously shot at getting in are those with math or physics masters or were undergraduate stars at China's MIT/Harvard equivalents. She said that finance undergrads cannot compete, either to get in or with the coursework once they are in.

The ostentible reason for this "super hot" status (apparently this is the hottest area in finance for the average Chinese student) is that good paying jobs are currently easy to come by. However, the degree has zero application in China right now.

We yakked on a bit more and two other somewhat interesting points came up.

1. All Chinese applicants to foreign finance programs focus on writing their career goals in their personal statement. My cousin and I agreed this was a patently absurd approach for a 20 year old with no working experience away from a couple summer internships.

I suggested a more realistic and softer sell by emphasizing that she's a great person who will be an asset to the school and go far. I also recommended requesting phone/face to face interviews, which will hopefully help her stand out a bit more from the crowd of 20-50% anonymous Chinese applicants.

2. The finance students start looking for work as soon as they arrive. This is because most finance programs only run for a year. So this all seems more like a "get the US/UK job" approach and not at all like an attempt to get some education.

She's taking the November GMAT and then we'll do some strategizing for application and so on. She's looking at 2 year finance and 2 year accounting programs. As always, any tips on this matter would be much appreciated.

She's a smart girl and she did her homework. I think she'll do alright whereever she ends up.

I want to warn confused renter that the household income of most people with MBAs from top 5 schools is well below $500K and he should plan on making less than $100K his MBA from the University of Phoenix after the slow real estate market forces him to back to school to try and get a real job...

I wouldn’t worry about offshoring/outsourcing as a real threat to a MFE degree. I’ve seen no evidence this is likely to occur anytime soon. The real risk of an MFE is that the degree is relatively new.

Is the MFE program similar to the Mathematical Finance program at Stanford?

I am going to take a spiritual approach to finance and see how it goes.

I am a strong believer of competition avoidance. If the quantitative finance is becoming competitive, it will eventually collapse.

I feel that there is less "alpha" out there than necessary to support all the HFs with similar methodologies and approaches.

I afraid their recent apparent success are mostly from beta. This is scary.

When thousands of people are doing the same thing, they must be misguided. When millions of people are doing the same thing, they must be wrong.

I was doing some research on DE Shaw and it must warm you r heart that they have also established their India operations!

DE Shaw, as far as I know (and I no longer have a direct contact there in that area), only offshores non-proprietary work. Any quant programming you would do on the model development side would be done strictly here, and under very tightly monitored circumstances. Big guys like DE and BGI go to unbelievable lengths to keep even the tiniest "competitive secret" from getting out. These guys are already continually trying to reverse-engineer/infer each other's models, because even the smallest nugget of info can lead to hundreds of millions in gains.

Stanford would probably disagree, but their Mathematical Finance is essentially the same as Haas' MFE. Probably the Berkeley flavor is a bit more practical-focused while the Stanford side is probably a bit more theoretical. Either will probably get you to the same place, but some places will *only* consider you if you're Stanford branded.

There's a long tail to the competitiveness of the MFE discipline. Right now probably 99% of the graduates are going into high finance proper. But, places like GE, P&G, Boeing, etc. are starting to hire these types also as a solution to the limitations of the current state of internal finance. Any global company with substantial capital, debt, and currency issues has a need for some MFEs.

Probably the Berkeley flavor is a bit more practical-focused while the Stanford side is probably a bit more theoretical.

I agree. I took a class. Stanford's is more about math than finance.

What is the university's "official" position on the "alpha pursuit"?

Confused,

The FT is one of the better MBA rankings because it is driven primarily by straight salary-related data, and not a bunch of social-preference factors (like diversity, etc.).

http://www.ft.com/businesseducation/mba

Download the PDF versions, where all the salary data is included inline.

There you'll find the most recent median salary for Stanford was $156,126, Columbia $148,778, Haas $123,968.

I have to look down to #18 to find a salary below $100K, and then #31 to find a *US* school that is below $100K (Michigan State Univ).

Also note these are for full-time MBAs, which are on average 28 years old upon graduation (and falling as per another FT article).

You can download EMBA and Part Time MBA data separately, and there you will find much higher salary averages, but lower salary % increase averages -- because graduates tend to be older and already higher on the salary curve. My own alma mater in this camp comes in at $193,188 median salary (2005).

If you're really going to Univ of Phoenix then good luck. That's not regarded as a legit MBA.

There you’ll find the most recent median salary for Stanford was $156,126, Columbia $148,778, Haas $123,968, India $5,000

Sometimes if something is much cheap than the rest, you have to ask why.

Do you think the employers somehow overlooked such data?

I too am surprised at the slow speed of off-shoring.

India $5,000

Not even close, even for home grown Indian MBAs working within India. And note there are no top-50 Indian B Schools yet. Assuming their B Schools keep increasing in ranking, so will their salaries.

http://www.dqindia.com/content/top_stories/2005/105091201.asp

This answers your question too, Peter P. There are very few MBAs in India, relatively. They aren't producing very many new ones, and all top school MBAs have to come through a foreign program and thus they lose a lot to emigration. Add to that the roughly 20% management salary yearly growth, and you see the value proposition falls apart pretty fast.

China and other Asian countries could pose a different long-term threat, though. Yet to be seen.

China and other Asian countries could pose a different long-term threat, though. Yet to be seen.

Yeah, by then their MBAs will cost just as much, or more.

Look at the eMBA ranking. No. 2 is in Hong Kong. 255K!

The cost of living is that much lower in India.

Code monkeys in India make more than that.

Randy - Thanks for perfectly proving my point USNWRandBW all show $120,000-$150,000 first year starting salaries for 28 year old MBA grads. So many people think that everybody is making the Bay Area median or is it avg of $70,000. People just don’t know.

The only reason why they are making that much is because there are not many of them.

Even if there are two MBAs making 250K each (500K total), the family still cannot afford a 2M house with 20% down. What can they get in SF for 2M? A 2/2 condo?

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/rfs/221499453.html

What is the median salary of lobbyists on J Street? DC must be prime!

I just spent some time on the HSBC site and Randy H is correct when he says that "according to the HSBC research it has usually been more expensive to buy then to rent".

I stand by my original comment that other than in Bubble Areas over the past few years “the cost to rent has always been close to the cost to buy (after making a down payment)”.

I play with Argus models before I buy anything, but my Dad has always just run the numbers in his head. Over the years when he has tried to talk people in to buying he will say: ”As long as the mortgage is less than your rent you should be OK since insurance and maint. will just push things up a little bit, your tax deduction should come close to covering the property tax and you will probably get a better return on your 20% down payment with 5:1 leverage than you can get anywhere else”…

The main problem with the HSBC data is that they are comparing the median rent in an area to the median sale price in an area and don’t adjust for the fact that median home or condo that sells in an area will rent for much more than the median “rental property” since there are very few high end rentals and many low end rentals.

Using the HSBC logic I could show that it is cheaper to rent a car than buy one by taking the median prices to rent for a car in the Bay Area and buy a car in the Bay Area. There are very few rental Ferraris or BMWs and a lot of stripped down rental Fords and GMs so the cost to “rent” the median car available for rent in the Bay Area will be less then the cost to “buy” the median priced car sold in the Bay Area.

Other adjustments that HSBC did to push up the cost of buying were:

1. Looking at only first year cost after adding a 5% “closing cost” (who pays 5% extra to buy a home)?

2. Adding the opportunity cost on a down payment (and the mystery 5% “closing cost”) without giving any credit for the leveraged home appreciation (and they did not give any value to the flexibility of renting).

3. Only using a 30% total tax rate when over the years (when most CA homebuyers have paid a higher percentage in combined federal and state taxes).

I appreciate detailed research, but sometimes you can’t look at things from such a high level. If you just look at the median temperature from Chicago you will think it is always 65 degrees there. The HSBC data also didn’t adjust for alternative financing during periods of high interest rates (most sales in the late 70’s and early 80’s had creative financing

What is the median salary of lobbyists on J Street? DC must be prime!

That's a good point Peter P. I'm not trying to argue that housing is priced correctly. It is not. But I also highly doubt we'll see dual income MBAs "waking up on the street" anytime soon either, even though a lot of people would be happy to see it come to pass.

I'm just taking a nice Sunday (starting last night) to refute the normal spew of fabricated data, made up numbers, and flawed conclusions. I'm not making this stuff up. Anyone can find it or read it just by opening the FT or WSJ every day.

Confused Renter let loose with:
The lesson? Time goes by with or without you and education and love make you much wealthier than you could have imagined.

Let’s enjoy the weather!

Absolutely! Don't waste precious time looking at overpriced properties to buy. Enjoy life for a few years, and buy after prices have dropped. And oh, by the way, you don't need a useless realtwhore to 'help' you buy.

SP

FAB raises some legitimate methodology debate with the HSBC research, and I appreciate that. They are not, however, making the "median temperature from Chicago you will think it is always 65 degrees there" error, however. I'm also not convinced that their opportunity cost of money equations are flawed either. I'd like to see a candidate equation to beat how they compute apples-to-apples opportunity cost of money. There's plenty in there to take issue with outside of that, though.

Suman said:
All I need now is to challenge myself and work out a strategy/career path towards finding a job in DE Shaw

Suman,
You sound like you are motivated, adaptable and willing to work to succeed, instead of wallowing in a state of entitlement. With an attitude like yours, you don't have to worry about jobs that are inevitably outsourced for lower wages. You will find more rewarding work when that happens.
SP

Allah Says:
There you’ll find the most recent median salary for Stanford was $156,126, Columbia $148,778, Haas $123,968, India $5,000

Wow! Is the India number from FT, or is it just something you made up? It wasn't clear from your post, and I didn't find this number in the FT link.

SP

# lars39 Says:
Any chance that more home buyers will buy smaller, less expensive houses that they can actually afford? Maybe ones without granite, stainless steel, 400 sq ft bathrooms and more room than they can maintain? Probably not.

Why not? After prices fall, I fully intend to buy a house that is smaller, cheaper and more modest than the maximum that I can afford. A house has to 'fit' my family's needs. To borrow a phrase from another context: Anything more than a mouthful is a waste.

SP

@ConfusedRenter, master of anectode and manipulation of data to prove your point,

Lemme ask you this: how many top MBA program grads are there out there in the world? Not many, relatively speaking. Now how many are in the US? Less than that. How many in the BA? Even less. How many of those earn the median incomes you quote or higher? Even less so. How many of those are married to someone else with equivalent salary? Miniscule. Most MBA's, like lawyers and doctors, aren't married to other professionals. Having both spouses work hellacious hours is a tough road to take (believe me, we're doing it).

My point is, your examples barely make a dent in the overall BA RE market.

Enjoy the "whether".

RMB,

Most of them go into high finance or strategy consulting. Those heading into finance were mostly already in a big investment bank, and after graduation return (not always to the same IB) or go into a private equity fund (M&A, LBO, etc.). I'd be very surprised if very many of these guys were making less than $100K _before_ entering the full time MBA.

Strategy consultants will easily make $100K after graduation. There are tons of these jobs, and have been for many years. Doubtful a bubble.

There's a good argument that HFs are a bubble. Some say PEs are a bubble, but probably not. PEs are very cyclical, with huge money inflows during periods of consolidation driving massive M&A activity, like the last half decade. It'll dry up eventually, and tons of these guys will be trying to get into corporate development jobs, probably for pretty nasty salary cuts.

I would have thought a MBA from U. of Phoenix would detract rather than improve a resume. Such a diploma would certainly bring up more questions than it would answer.