patrick.net

Logan - in all sincerity, I appreciate you coming back form time to time to rub the faces of the Patnet "doomers" in their failed calls.

In the early days of the blogosphere, I just assumed that if someone was commenting they actually knew what they were talking about. Naïve, I know, but I had no idea that housing sites would be dominated by complete imbeciles - the "Anti American Bears" as you called them who truly did seem to hate, well pretty much everything.

It pleases me to see that there still mostly here and still stuck in their failed lives - but it pleases me even more when you come back pick up the big shit sandwiches they made and shove them down their throats. Again, thank you!

And Logan is back for the 1000th time after promising that he was done.

You're like a crack addict.

Logan Mohtashami says

American bears have been wrong since 1790..... and you all will be too!

They're shooting bears wherever they find them. Not a good time to be a bear.
Hey Logan, are we rich yet?

joeyjojojunior says

And Logan is back for the 1000th time after promising that he was done.

This is the 2nd post of the year. However, I use this site as example of Anti American bashing from old men who hide behind fake names and no photos

Oh please don't ever get wise to my act, I have got a whole entire 21 year plan for you bears who can't read macro data lines but push Anti American non sense

Keep it up gents... Keep up the American bashing with crash theories of deflation and inflation ....



In the real world you can't hide behind fake names

What happened to silver gold bug people??? Just about when gold look like it might break a down trend since 2011 and reach 5,000

Strategist says

Hey Logan, are we rich yet?

MASI had one hell of a run! I told you man KB homes at $10 bucks! I am up 43% YTD its been a good year

Went to Maldives for New Years eve! One hell of Trip and then to Jumby Bay for 10 days last month

@Logan

It's easy to be right until you're not.

just any guy says

It's easy to be right until you're not.

Timeline, method, thesis, It's a on going process

A. Over investment thesis in a cycle
B. Inflation to be fought
C. Labor unit cost to really hit the bottom line
D. Unemployment claims to rise off a certain basis % from a base low
E. (Never) had a post WWII recession without LEI falling 4-6 months into a recessionary data curves

Rules, can't just randomly push crash theories with out a reason

You guys remember the PMI recession bears of 2015 and 2016..

Holy S#$#)#)(

I told you they were going to be a disaster fail call

Don't put this all on conservative calling for Crash .... MMT people were calling for recessions especially Warren Mosler because he put way too much faith in the PMI data

MMT and Gold Bugs.... debt deflation and Hyper inflation crew, get these two groups in a bar.. wow

Now the world economies are all working together .... goodness.... what happened???

as oil rises, trade rises and Japan and Europe get some more output action

Now to be fair!

Low bar for 2017, Q1 and Q2 earnings because oil and mining where in a recession, that kept 2017 safe, that low bar is gone for 2018

Hi Logan. What's your prognostication on the 10yr. yield?

Logan Mohtashami says

What's your prognostication on the 10yr. yield?

"For 2017, I am sticking to my call that the 10-year yield will channel between 1.60% to 3%. Yes, I do expect to see a 1% handle again"

From my 2017 Economic and Housing Predictions

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/12/31/2017-housing-economic-predictions/
So far we haven't gotten that 1 handle yet on 10's

2.038% still doesn't count



Battle here for sure, maybe test 2.44% before falling again. However, still sticking to a 1 handle call

Oil held up better than I thought this year and the world economies are now working together, Have you all seen the world ETF's this year, finally Russia got positive



So even with all that, 10's lower highs and lower lows for the year big fight right now on where does it break out too.

However, we stay below 3% and that 1.60% the two times that broke lower were off the 2012 Spain default fear trade and 2016 Brexit so you need an event to break below that line.

However, that lower band range is putting up a epic fight not to break lower where in other years it would have smashed through by now

Thanks, Logan. What do you see as the economic conditions concomitant with that 1% handle?

What happened to the Great American Crash? Great American Cash!

I wish it actually smelled like mint, don’t you? Perhaps a scratch and sniff hundred with a touch of chocolate. Except the Washington’s and Jackson’s should smell like slave sweat, instead, no?

Your S&P chart shows the inflation quite plainly. It is in the assets this time, but It won’t be a crash. It will be long painful doldrums dressed up as a nice sunny day.

I would recommend shorting the Powdered Wig Market, though.

I just keep walking away from huge money deals because it is always tied to a-holes whose only charity arrives only out of their cognitive dissonance. I think I will continue that trend.

No. The tiny bits of land, the piles of wood, nails, and sheetrock are not worth millions. The demand is NOT high. There are empty houses everywhere.

And stop insulting my favorite country by equating it with the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department. It is not those institutions which made this country great. They just gave you great opportunities to be an a-hole.

anonymous says

What do you see as the economic conditions concomitant with that 1% handle?

I would tell you this for that 1 handle call, and some of you that follow me on facebook would know this

If oil had broke under $43.. that would get you a one handle, now 2.038% was close but not there

Now, stock wise $$$ flow into bonds ?

4th longest period ever without a 5% pull back

2nd longest period ever without a 3% pull back

VIX is the walking dead ... any little noise or down draft below $43 on oil should get a 1 handle but 1 quarter left, so that 1 handle 10 year print only has 3 months left

You guys all remember the time stamp thread here with the video and all that bait ...

What happened then?



Well oil was crashing .... that was the risk to other economies and the oil, mining sector... didn't see the major big BK's smaller players yes... so why is 2017 so quiet

Oil up, risk down world trade picked up everyone is happy for now

Thanks, Logan. The sooner you leave the sooner we can go back to calling each other cunts and cucks again.

anonymous says

calling each other c

Awesome! so not much has changed...

Gentlemen as always, pleasure!

My favorite photo of the year, Mr. Doom and Gloom .... Marc Faber... grumpy old man with dow record tagged to his face

deepcgi says

No. The tiny bits of land, the piles of wood, nails, and sheetrock are not worth millions. The demand is NOT high. There are empty houses everywhere.

And yet rents and home prices keep going up. An explanation would be welcome.

deepcgi says

The demand is NOT high

True, mortgage demand is only back to 1998 levels, new home inventory just hit a cycle high over 6 months , and adjusting to population using a 6 month moving average sales are at par or below 5 out of the last 6 recession .... all true

Well documented here too

Existing Home Sales

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/20/existing-home-sales-look-just-exactly-right/
New Home Sales

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/26/new-home-sales-look-exactly-just-right/

However, you're running into a better demographic patch in a few years, this isn't like 2006, it's the exact opposite

Also be mindful that median sales price for new homes is more due to a make shift in sale prices not a drawn down lower in net prices. This is actually bullish for more unit sales growth which still even today hasn't broken off 600K for a total year

Logan Mohtashami says

Rates of cash purchases of homes are up. They were at 50%.

This is the one thing I got wrong this year in my housing predictions

I was looking for cash buyers to fall to 16%-19% this year of sales and not only did they not fall, in some months they grew year over year. Nothing to big of course, 20%-24% range, one month that was 18%




Looking for negative to no growth this year in existing home sales with slight up tick in mortgage demand and a decline in cash buyer %, existing home sales are on trend to end the year flat to negative growth but cash buyers as a % really didn't fall this year

https://loganmohtashami.com/2017/09/20/existing-home-sales-look-just-exactly-right/

Logan, interesting as always. Do you have stats for regional, say CA or the midwest etc?

As an aside do you speak englush?

Logan Mohtashami says

So even with all that, 10's lower highs and lower lows for the year big fight right now on where does it break out too.

However, we stay below 3% and that 1.60% the two times that broke lower were off the 2012 Spain default fear trade and 2016 Brexit so you need an event to break below that line.

However, that lower band range is putting up a epic fight not to break lower where in other years it would have smashed through by now

jazz_music says

This implies that investors are using a lot of mortgages.

This is the big difference between 2016 vs 2017

Heat month action in existing home sales in the mortgage purchase application data is from 2nd week of Jan until the first week of May. You can get an idea of how the year will be by the end of March really. However, last year

25% + plus growth in purchase apps in that time frame

2017 -1% to 9% growth in data

% don't = nominal volume, but you can see that the holding up pattern of cash buyers gave a bit of better demand for 2017 even though sales most likely will end the year negative year over year but not by much

lostand confused says

Do you have stats for regional, say CA or the midwest etc?

https://www.nar.realtor/news-releases/2017/09/existing-home-sales-subside-17-percent-in-august
For CA

http://www.corelogic.com/solutions/configurable-real-estate-data-reports.aspx/

Pure greed. Markets built entirely on collateralized debt and blessed asset classes. The demand for money is high. The demand for prices of real estate to continue increasing is high. In other words, second, third, or fourth empty homes. Next time you see a Chinese national with all cash, remove your expensive sunglasses, and don't forget to kneel. I lose my faith in humanity when i listen to the rich and the holy. The future generations will not be as impressed as this lot.

jazz_music says

Logan Mohtashami says

I was looking for cash buyers to fall to 16%-19% this year of sale

NAR shows sales to investors up but cash sales down. This implies that investors are using a lot of mortgages.

NAR has an obvious agenda influencing everything they say and how they say it as well. There must be some better source for such statistics less noted for deceptive practices

There is a better source.....Dan.

Why hello there @deepcgi - it's funny,I look back at all your old posts, especially your first onw where you were all shrieking and hysterical 4 years ago about why we were due for an imminent CRASH!!!!

Lol - wow, sometimes I just look back at your abysmal calls, and I just laugh and laugh and laugh!!!

anonymous says

Why hello there @deepcgi - it's funny,I look back at all your old posts, especially your first onw where you were all shrieking and hysterical 4 years ago about why we were due for an imminent CRASH!!!!

Lol - wow, sometimes I just look back at your abysmal calls, and I just laugh and laugh and laugh!!!

Wether you are into stocks or housing, over time if it wasn't for the bears the bulls would not get rich.

Wow. I go back a LOT farther than that. That's interesting. I guess I need to say it again, because nothing has changed. It won't be a crash, and the longer we postpone it, the worse it will be. Extend your charts out far enough, and you will see that the ever increasing real estate future you envision requires the young and the poor to evolve around your privileges. The rich baby boom living out its dreams of 'retiring' at 55 but not dying until 120, while their tenants are denied the same. Historically, that type of imbalance works out better for the pissed-off than the wealthy.

The most amusing part though, from the perspective of the R&D I have been involved in for the past 8 years, is that you seem to believe you will not have to tear your shacks down to the baseboards to be on the wise side of the next big fear. And no it isn't climate. This is SO much more terrifying than being unsure of where the beachfront property will be. I wonder which side of the new religion you will land upon.

What happened to the crash?

Hillary lost. That's what happened.

BlueSardine says

As an aside do you speak englush?

I know I know... bond market lingo ... I naturally assume I am speaking to an audience that knows the general baseline assumption of the topic in my language

Key lines to watch on 10's

Close above 2.44% and next trading day follow through you're testing 2.62%

We close under 2.03% next trading day follow through should get us to 1.87% on 10's

If we are to break lower in yields we should break under 2%

Last few moves lower in yield for bonds have created yield slippage at key levels, so respect the trend.

However, just be very stubborn to break below 2% this year so I have to respect the market place not letting the 10 year yield go to one handle this year

Right now conventional wisdom is we test the 2.40% - 2.44% range with the recent moves but I am still sticking to the break off that 2% level this year because 2.038% still doesn't count

Very tight range in yields this year unlike the previous years where you can see the action pre 2017 more with this chart

Logan Mohtashami says

My favorite idiot.

It hasn't happened up to now,it can never happen.
What MAGA is that the U.S. has never had a small downturn or Depression.
Happy days are always here.

CHARRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTSSSSS!

Good to see a Logan thread up in here.

For guys like HEY YOU and DEEPCGI every bull agrees that in the next 500–1000 years America is finished. However we understand that just because it's "inevitable" does not mean it's "imminent".

The reality is we get about 80 spins on this planet and only 40 of which involve our finances. Thus there is a stunning arrogance in your position that the once in a millennium kaboom will happen during your watch.

For guys like HEY YOU Who is in the twilight of his existence, all I can say is I'm sorry it didn't work out for you. I'm sorry that you sidelined yourself in the 70s or 80s getting out (at DJIA under 2k) Now you are too old to risk it and must live on your meager savings for the last 15 spins you have on this planet. I'm sure you will still be here snarking and trolling till your last breath - and no doubt you WILL see other collapses, but none powerful enough to knock the markets down to the 1970s 80s level where you decided to "wait out the kaboom". Again I truly am sorry it didn't work out like you thought.

However, for younger guys like DEEPCGI There is still time for you. I truly suggest the "inevitable does not mean imminent" lesson that every investor should. Take your licks from the "1994 till current" or whatever sideline position you took and slowly start backing away from it. 40 - 50 years from now when you draw your last breath you will thank me for this. Good luck.

Logan Mohtashami says

Remember 2/3rd of our labor force have some form of college education now

And how is that going to help when competing with outsourcing and other wage pressures. You clearly don't work for a large corporation.