patrick.net

Tesla stock now worth more then Ford and GM (individually, not combined). Can you say irrational exuberance?

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2017/04/11/tesla-is-now-americas-most-valuable-automaker/

Tesla Is Now America’s Most Valuable Automaker

Tesla (TSLA) is now America’s most valuable car company.

Tesla’s gains on Monday put it ahead of General Motors (GM), the last firm standing between it and the title after it surpassed Ford’s (F) market capitalization earlier this month.

As far as world domination, it still has a way to go: Its market cap makes it the sixth-largest automaker globally. Toyota Motor (TM) is still No. 1, but Tesla is within a billion dollars of overtaking No. 5, Honda Motors (HMC).

I was starring at TSLA when it was 193 and thinking, pull the trigger.

Two financial analyst friends convinced me it was overvalued lol.

Kicking myself.

Don't kick yourself. Not being able to predict random irrational exuberance is no fault of your own.

You might as well kick yourself for not having picked the correct lottery numbers.

The definition of investment is a sound forecast of its ability to make profit, in what time frame and how sure you are. All other ways of betting money is speculation. -- Warren Buffet

TSLA is a speculation like all silicon valley ventures. There is nothing wrong with speculating on ventures, but you have to know it is NOT investment.

For some reason, I posted a comment using DryPark's login, i just logged out. Patrick, this is a security risk.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-just-said-apos-141619694.html

Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its price forecast on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares on Tuesday, saying the electric car maker's "long-term viability" was at risk because of the acquisition of SolarCity.

The investment firm now believes the stock will be nearly cut in half over the next 12 months because "positive earnings and cash flow [are] now even more elusive" in light of the combination.

"We believe the SolarCity acquisition introduces material risks to the longer-term viability of TSLA, while the recent capital raise only serves to further dilute potential shareholder value," research analyst John Murphy said in a note to investors. He has an underperform rating on the stock.

Murphy sees Tesla shares falling to $165, a 46 percent drop from where the stock closed Monday at $308.03 a share. Shares were unchanged in premarket trade.

Murphy also said he is cutting his 2017 earnings estimate on the combined entity from a 25 cent loss per share to a $2 loss. Looking to 2018, he lowered estimates from $2.05 a share to $1.65 but set 2019 estimates "optimistically" at $4.55 a share.

In November, SolarCity and Tesla shareholders voted to approve the electric car maker's $2.6 billion acquisition of the solar power company. SolarCity has struggled financially despite revenue growth, while Tesla has continued to burn cash in pioneering the electric vehicle market.

Elon Musk is chairman and CEO of Tesla, and chairman of SolarCity. Tesla did not return an email for comment.

Here are some of Murphy's other concerns about the combined Tesla-SolarCity:

The solar company acquisition should "exacerbate TSLA's serious cash burn problem, at least in the near-term." Similarly, Murphy anticipates "the SolarCity business burning cash through our forecast period."

The combined company likely depends heavily on the automotive business: 84 percent of total revenue and 97 percent of gross profit, he estimates.
The "Model S may be experiencing a typical spike and burnout" and "without an all-new or next-generation Model S, we think TSLA could see Model S volumes fade, even if prices are lowered."

"Shareholders seem to come second" as Tesla pursues its mission of vertical energy integration because the company has raised capital every year since 2008, Murphy said.
Those shareholders may eventually lose confidence in the stock: "While we recognize that TSLA is a growing top-line business, we think it is unlikely that investors would continue to supply the company with incremental low cost capital in perpetuity if investments fail to generate return."

Shark Tank Star Kevin O'Leary on Why Tesla Shares Are Headed for an Epic Crash

The party is over.

Tesla (TSLA) shares are set to crash, according to Shark Tank star Kevin O'Leary, who is also chairman of O'Leary ETF Investments.

"I'd argue there's a 30-40% downside in Tesla's stock," O'Leary said in an interview with TheStreet.

Tesla shares are up 51% since the start of the year, crushing the broad S&P 500's 6.6% gain.

"There are going to be self-driving cars manufactured by many companies," O'Leary said, "Tesla is the first and perhaps the best brand known, but if I were putting money to work today into this space, it probably wouldn't be in Tesla because it doesn't fit any of the criteria that I look at in terms of derisking my portfolio."

O'Leary said investors who believe in Tesla think it's going to be the only winner in the car space, a contention he's skeptical of.

Last month, Apple (AAPL) disclosed that it had received a permit to test self-driving technology on public roads. Apple is the largest holding of O'Leary's U.S. focused ETF, the O'Shares FTSE US Quality Dividend ETF (OUSA) .

O'Leary also doesn't like that Tesla doesn't pay a dividend.

"It's a cult stock," O'Leary said, adding that he does not own the stock. "If I'm looking at the automotive sector, why would I pay this valuation for basically a car company?"

O'Leary said Tesla investors think Tesla is a technology company, instead of a car company.

PE Ratio (TTM) -69.03
EPS (TTM) -4.68
Earnings Date May 3, 2017
Dividend & Yield N/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend Date N/A
1y Target Est 262.8

It's a lot higher than I ever thought it would get to, it is however negative in earnings by a lot. Reminds me of Sears.

zzyzzx says

Shark Tank Star Kevin O'Leary on Why Tesla Shares Are Headed for an Epic Crash

When? Without timeframe this "prediction" is useless.

Straw Man says

Tesla patents are free to everyone.

Why did they make the patents free to use?

rando says

Why did they make the patents free to use?

I can't say I understand it 100%.

http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1112106_heres-how-mazdas-hcci-engine-works

Bye bye TSLA.

I'd rather have an electric car (not Tesla) than a Mazda. Mazda makes shitty cars.

someone else says

Straw Man says

Tesla patents are free to everyone.

Why did they make the patents free to use?

Here's my guess:
To ward off the oil companies from taking over Tesla, and stopping the rise of the electric car. Tesla wasn't worth much back in 2014 when it put all its patents into the public domain. The oil companies worldwide are worth $ trillions. They have an unlimited spending power. Politicians are in their pockets. Research scientists are in their pockets. They can take any technology they want and permanently shelve it. By giving away their technology to the world, Tesla ensured the fucking oil companies could never own those patents. Elon Musk is a hero.

mell says

Bye bye TSLA.

Dead on arrival.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/08/19/economist-announces-death-ice-finally/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29
The Economist Announces The Death Of The ICE (Finally)

Booger says

I'd rather have an electric car (not Tesla) than a Mazda. Mazda makes shitty cars.

Good man. You will save money while putting the Saudis out of business. And our air will be cleaner.

Amazon is another whose valuations I don't get-my loss!! perhaps i need to understand better.

Never had a Mazda but I'd rather have a hcci than an electric car. Not to mention hccis and modern diesel are already better in total emissions than EVs.

Booger says

I'd rather have an electric car (not Tesla) than a Mazda. Mazda makes shitty cars.

I was surprised as well to see Mazda of all to come out with this. Not necessarily known as the greatest car maker, but with dedicated fan base. We'll see.

$297.80/sh -23.27 (-7.25%) As of 1:01PM EDT.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-model-3-volume-production-213200872.html

Tesla Model 3 volume production delayed 3 months as company posts loss of $619.4 million

zzyzzx says

Tesla Model 3 volume production delayed 3 months as company posts loss of $619.4 million

WTF. I signed up for one on the very first day, and I still have no idea when my turn comes up.

TSLA going to $50-$100. What a beautiful short that would've been at $380. The jig is up.

How can people ignore fundamentals so easily???

Love these blast from the past stock posts lol.

In the 20s when this post was made? Up 12x?

mell says

TSLA going to $50-$100.

When?

KimJongUn says

mell says

TSLA going to $50-$100.

When?

Who knows. When they run out of gullible funding. If you want to be more on the safe side, set the bottom price target to $150-$200. This company has no fundamentals, just Musk.

The fact that he was able to tweet away to get it up to $380 was just laughable. I'm still baffled how a company that doesn't make a single product that costs more than does to produce can be valued higher than car companies that sell two orders of magnitude more cars than said company while profiting.

mell says

KimJongUn says

mell says

TSLA going to $50-$100.

When?

Who knows. When they run out of gullible funding. If you want to be more on the safe side, set the bottom price target to $150-$200. This company has no fundamentals, just Musk.

Too vague to be actionable.

KimJongUn says

mell says

KimJongUn says

mell says

TSLA going to $50-$100.

When?

Who knows. When they run out of gullible funding. If you want to be more on the safe side, set the bottom price target to $150-$200. This company has no fundamentals, just Musk.

Too vague to be actionable.

Yeah and you shouldn't short a momo stock like this unless you have deep pockets. It can run up on the slightest hype like it has destroyed any shorts from $20 to $380. In the end fundamentals will likely win, I give it 1-2 years for a serious decline of at least another $100, but still wouldn't short it. There are much better and safer shorts out there such as CMG. AMZN is fundamentally a good short as well, but you can only start touching those once the general economy and/or market goes into a tailspin, then those companies should be the losing leaders. Anyways, I only recommend long positions here, Going broke shorting is too easy.

BayArea says

Love these blast from the past stock posts lol.

In the 20s when this post was made? Up 12x?

@BayArea,

I made a little bit of money trading the stock, but it paled comparing to had I hung onto the stock. I wish I knew then what I know now. After I became a Tesla owner, I realized I completely missed the boat on this company. NVDA and AMZN are companies that I've missed, but my mind was so into real estate at the time. Thankfully, I've made my money with Bay Area real estate so I have nothing to complain about.

$100k can't really change your life, but $1M can... A tennis friend of mine who bet the farm on TSLA when it was in its infancy. He accumulated over $500k worth of TSLA stocks in its 20's and made it big when TSLA popped. He was betting on it with conviction as he put it after he listened to Steve Jobs. "Find a company you believe in and bet big on it." He sold a good chunk of it and bought a million dollar home all cash at the age of 47, the first time he ever owns a home. He bought himself a new Tesla, quit his job at ORCL and started his own consulting firm.

Good luck with your investments.

E-man says

A tennis friend of mine who bet the farm on TSLA when it was in its infancy. He accumulated over $500k worth of TSLA stocks in its 20's and made it big when TSLA popped. He was betting on it with conviction

That's great for him and in the end the net gain counts. However this was a very risky play as the majority of its move was just hype while fundamentals kept and keep deteriorating. It works for some companies, esp. in modern technology when coupled with politics and tax breaks and big institutional money supporting it and crushing the shorts. If/when one or more major investors start reducing or pulling out of their position, this will crash hard and leaving a lot of people holding the bag. Of course Musk could succeed with TSLA, but chances are slim at this point. However until major investors start bailing shorting this remains risky, too much fund money rammed into this.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4121231-10-qs-hidden-bombshell-tesla-yet-ordered-crucial-model-3-production-equipment

mell says

E-man says

A tennis friend of mine who bet the farm on TSLA when it was in its infancy. He accumulated over $500k worth of TSLA stocks in its 20's and made it big when TSLA popped. He was betting on it with conviction

That's great for him and in the end the net gain counts. However this was a very risky play as the majority of its move was just hype while fundamentals kept and keep deteriorating. It works for some companies, esp. in modern technology when coupled with politics and tax breaks and big institutional money supporting it and crushing the shorts. If/when one or more major investors start reducing or pulling out of their position, this will crash hard and leaving a lot of people holding the bag. Of course Musk could succeed with TSLA, but chances are slim at this point. However until major investors start bailing shorting this remains risky, too much fund money rammed into this.


The definition of success should be that this company is stable, profitable, and doesn't burn through cash left and right. At this stage of the game, most people would scream failure if this Stock dropped down to $20 while accomplishing that. The valuation is completely insane and it appears that the investors actually want to see an indication of the profitability turning around at some point. Right now, given their failure to deliver on their Model 3 promises, it looks like this company still has a lot to learn when it comes to production. As they burn through cash, they better learn real quick before the big boys blow them out of the water.

i see some bitcoin “believers” in here...time to go big?

DooDahMan says

Any of the prognosticators that commented on this thread have any regrets ?

I’ve made well over six figures on TSLA so no regrets from me. Still own 300 shares. Writing/Selling puts and covered calls on it regularly. It’s my bread and butter with high IV, which means high premiums on options.

New Tesla Gigafactory in Mexico may be for cheaper Model 2 production with US$10 billion investment

The initial US$1 billion Tesla investment in its newest Gigafactory in Santa Catarina may be expanded to US$10 billion when the plant starts assembling a new, cheaper to produce model there in a few years. Elon Musk already met twice with local officials there and Tesla has reportedly acquired the Giga Mexico plots, too.
Daniel Zlatev, Published 12/19/2022 🇫🇷 🇪🇸 ...
E-Mobility

https://www.notebookcheck.net/New-Tesla-Gigafactory-in-Mexico-may-be-for-cheaper-Model-2-production-with-US-10-billion-investment.675769.0.html

Tesla Stock in 5 Years: Will Elon Musk’s Company Keep Leading the EV Market?

https://capital.com/tesla-stock-price-in-5-years#:~:text=As%20for%20the%20long-term%20outlook%20for%20Tesla%20stock%2C,a%20baseline%20Tesla%20stock%205-year%20forecast%20of%20%241%2C534.22.

11 Problems With Tesla Nobody Talks About

Tesla has done a lot for the EV industry, but owners are still facing countless problems with the brand's vehicles.

https://www.hotcars.com/problems-with-tesla-nobody-talks-about/

zzyzzx says

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

244.20-12.80 (-4.98%)

As of 10:18AM EST. Market open.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-shares-slide-more-than-3-as-goldman-downgrades-stock-to-sell-2017-02-27/

Tesla shares slide more than 4% as Goldman downgrades stock to sell

Goldman is expecting the launch of the Model 3 to be delayed and expects Tesla shares to be pressured through the year by an accelerating free cash flow burn rate. The company is expected to raise capital again before the fourth quarter, after Chief Executive Elon Musk acknowledged that need on the company’s latest quarterly earnings call.

“We see room for shares to de-rate as the Model 3 production launch likely disappoints and as an unproven SolarCity business model likely weighs on the company’s focus/results,” said Tamb...

Someone revived this thread today. A flash from the past. It’s fun to look at the comments. 😁

GS had a sell rating at $244 in 2017. Adjusted 15:1 stock splits = $16.20/share. TSLA is trading at $125 after a 70% from the peak. What I’ve learned in real life experience is that if the GS analyst was so smart, s/he wouldn’t be working for GS, but for him/herself. Warren Buffett is correct in his assessment.

Someone disliked this thread. 😂😂😂

This guy is truly a Tesla fan. He bought his house in 2020 for $2,069,420. Just sold it for $2.825M. Used some of the proceeds and bought 10k more shares of Tesla. Incredible.

https://twitter.com/jasondebolt/status/1618716587963588608?ref_src=patrick.net



I spent $30k buying leap debit call spreads in the hope of making $90k in a couple years if things work out. Break even on the $160/$210 call spreads today. Still down $336 on the $200/$250 ones as I was averaging down. Green on the rest of them.