There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!
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2018 May 14, 8:51am 79,587 views 699 comments
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594
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:35pm
Goran_K says
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
595
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:36pm
curious2
2018 Nov 6, 8:36pm
Goran_K says
Among convicted felons, that might be true, and Florida has decided to add more than a million to the list of eligible voters. In 2016, President Trump carried FL by 100k votes, out of 9 million total. If a million more Democrats can vote starting in 2020, then that might tip the balance towards Democrats for statewide and federal offices.
The majority of felons in the United States are Democrats.
Among convicted felons, that might be true, and Florida has decided to add more than a million to the list of eligible voters. In 2016, President Trump carried FL by 100k votes, out of 9 million total. If a million more Democrats can vote starting in 2020, then that might tip the balance towards Democrats for statewide and federal offices.
596
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:41pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:41pm
marcus says
Uh because they’re wrong?
Goran_K saysThat is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.
Why is 538 still saying +3.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.
Perhaps west coast ?
Uh because they’re wrong?
597
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:42pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:42pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Correct even now he's not predicting that. Although as you say, at this point it's not predicting (unless it's you or Goran).
Also, Nate did not predict 4 and maybe 5
Correct even now he's not predicting that. Although as you say, at this point it's not predicting (unless it's you or Goran).
598
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:44pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:44pm
Goran_K says
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
Uh because they’re wrong?
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
599
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:53pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:53pm
Pmarcus says
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Bet confirmed?
Goran_K saysUh because they’re wrong?
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Bet confirmed?
600
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:56pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 8:56pm
Goran_K says
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100. 3 I win, 5 you win, 4 neither of us win.
Yes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100. 3 I win, 5 you win, 4 neither of us win.
601
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Imarcus says
Braun, Scott, Harley, Cramer.
Pay me.
@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
Goran_K saysYes positive it’s NOT 3. I’ll bet $1,000 it’s not 3.
Are you going to delete this is it is 3 ? Just wondering, becasue you are a republican. It seems kind of like something you might do.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not betting that is is three, but I will do the bet I said for $100.
Braun, Scott, Harley, Cramer.
Pay me.
@Patrick
Can we ban Marcus and his IP if he doesn’t pay up?
602
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 8:59pm
Senate = Republican
House = probably Democratic control, not exactly a wave though. Like a small ripple.
House = probably Democratic control, not exactly a wave though. Like a small ripple.
603
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:00pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:00pm
Marcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?
I can accept any.
I can accept any.
607
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:06pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:06pm
FortWayneIndiana says
I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.
Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.
Goran_K saysI’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.
did you guys bet money?
I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.
Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.
609
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
Aphroman says
I thought you were pro freedom.
@Patrick you want to be careful with your site and it’s mods participating in, and facilitating criminal activity
I thought you were pro freedom.
610
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
I didn't. I gave him an offer that still stands I win $100 if it's 3 or less. He wins $100 if it's 5, and neither of us win if it's 4.
Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.
Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.
611
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 9:07pm
Goran_K says
Nice bet
FortWayneIndiana saysGoran_K saysI’ll accept the gentleman’s $100 if you admit you were wrong.
did you guys bet money?
I bet $1000 that GOP flipped 4 seats (with a 5th coming possibly). Marcus tried to be a bad ass and bet money that it was only 3 and I accepted.
Scott race was called in Florida making it the fourth flip.
Nice bet
612
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm
Aphroman says
He owes me at least $100.
I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.
Goran_K saysMarcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.
Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?
He owes me at least $100.
I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.
613
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm
FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut
2018 Nov 6, 9:08pm
Aphroman says
Yeah very much so.
Goran_K saysMarcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?
I can accept any.
Is this legal?
Yeah very much so.
615
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:10pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:10pm
Pmarcus says
lol okay. You bet that it was 3 and asked if I was “sure it wasn’t”.
Now you’re changing the bet.
Okay fine. If it’s 5 flips, you owe me $1000 right? Confirm please.
I didn't. I gave him an offer that still stands I win $100 if it's 3 or less. He wins $100 if it's 5, and neither of us win if it's 4.
Apparently he's drunk ? I don't know.
lol okay. You bet that it was 3 and asked if I was “sure it wasn’t”.
Now you’re changing the bet.
Okay fine. If it’s 5 flips, you owe me $1000 right? Confirm please.
618
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:16pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:16pm
Okay I accept marcuses modified, changed small time $100 wager. I usually don’t get out of bed for less than $2k but Marcus convinced me. Bet confirmed.
619
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:18pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:18pm
Aphroman says
I could cover $1,000 bets more than 2,000 times. I even proved it to iwog when he came back for a little bit and sent him away from PatNet sulking and crying. It was funny as shit.
Goran_K saysAphroman saysGoran_K saysMarcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.
Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?
He owes me at least $100.
I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.
I never saw Marcus confirm any wager
He considered your reputation and wisely asked how he could hold you to the wager because you giving your word isn’t worth much
I could cover $1,000 bets more than 2,000 times. I even proved it to iwog when he came back for a little bit and sent him away from PatNet sulking and crying. It was funny as shit.
620
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:19pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:19pm
Aphroman says
It’s a gentleman’s wager. Don’t worry I won’t hurt Marcus. He’s safe with me.
FortWayneIndiana saysAphroman saysGoran_K saysMarcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?
I can accept any.
Is this legal?
Yeah very much so.
How do you figure?
@Patrick you going to take FortWayneIndiana word that facilitating a wager is very much so legal on your site?
It’s a gentleman’s wager. Don’t worry I won’t hurt Marcus. He’s safe with me.
621
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm
Goran_K says
I have a screen shot of
marcus says
I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.
And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?
Now you’re changing the bet.
I have a screen shot of
marcus says
Goran_K saysUh because they’re wrong?
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.
And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?
622
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm
curious2 says
I voted against that, it's sad it passed.
I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
Are you sure about that?
Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:
I voted against that, it's sad it passed.
I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
623
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm
curious2 says
I voted against that, it's sad it passed.
I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
Are you sure about that?
Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:
I voted against that, it's sad it passed.
I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
624
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:21pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 9:21pm
marcus says
What are you talking about? The Dems have not flipped a senate seat yet.
Goran_K saysNow you’re changing the bet.
I have a screen shot of
marcus saysGoran_K saysUh because they’re wrong?
What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.
You're sure it's not 3 right ?
I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.
And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?
What are you talking about? The Dems have not flipped a senate seat yet.
625
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:26pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:26pm
IT was 51 - 49
this says it's now 53 - 47 .
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html
That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?
What you take the gain for republicans and add it to the loss for democrats to come up with 4 ?
Wtf ?
Republicans will pick up either 2 or 3 seats in the senate, no ?
this says it's now 53 - 47 .
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html
That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?
What you take the gain for republicans and add it to the loss for democrats to come up with 4 ?
Wtf ?
Republicans will pick up either 2 or 3 seats in the senate, no ?
626
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 9:29pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 9:29pm
marcus says
NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html
There's still the potential to pick up Montana, too, which would be 5.
And Arizona, which isn't really a pick up, but Flake was a major NeverTrump PITA, so it's kind of a pickup if Sinema is beaten off.
That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?
NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html
There's still the potential to pick up Montana, too, which would be 5.
And Arizona, which isn't really a pick up, but Flake was a major NeverTrump PITA, so it's kind of a pickup if Sinema is beaten off.
628
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:42pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:42pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
That would be 3. 54 - 51 = 3 OH, is it becasue they aren't counting Nevada ? Why is that ?
No, that's not it. I still don't get it. But then I haven't been watching the tube.
NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.
That would be 3. 54 - 51 = 3 OH, is it becasue they aren't counting Nevada ? Why is that ?
No, that's not it. I still don't get it. But then I haven't been watching the tube.
629
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 9:53pm
MisdemeanorRebel
2018 Nov 6, 9:53pm
Marcus:
Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.
Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.
630
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:55pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:55pm
Why does 538 have it as most likely to end up being net gain of 3 and NYT (your link) shows it at 53 republicans now, up from 51 ? with an equal number of undeclared on each side, or perhaps one more for republicans.
631
NDrLoR
2018 Nov 6, 9:56pm
NDrLoR
2018 Nov 6, 9:56pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Headline:
DeSantis defeats Gillum in RACIALLY CHARGED Florida campaign that followed Trump’s playbook
No one saw that coming, did they? In other words, he was the perfect candidate except for his race?
Florida
Headline:
DeSantis defeats Gillum in RACIALLY CHARGED Florida campaign that followed Trump’s playbook
No one saw that coming, did they? In other words, he was the perfect candidate except for his race?
632
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:57pm
marcus
2018 Nov 6, 9:57pm
Well see in the end. It was 51 republicans in the senate yesterday, I think it will be 54 when this is all over, maybe only 53. I'm out.
633
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 10:01pm
Goran_K
2018 Nov 6, 10:01pm
TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
lol I posted the same list.
Marcus:
Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.
lol I posted the same list.
« First « Previous Comments 594 - 633 of 699 Next » Last » Search these comments
Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.
Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.
Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".
"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."
That's when Morris dropped his prediction.
"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."
Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.