patrick.net

kt1652 says

Go out to see the rest of the world.

Where in the rest of the world should we look for an apples to apple comparison? We have a huge land mass and there's no need for tight quarters where high speed rail is most efficient. Could we be better? Of course. But our cities are spread far apart and it's not efficient to build high speed rail between even some of our largest cities.

I don't think high speed trains ever make a mark here in the US. Some will exist on the coasts, but it will never be a mainstream from of transportation. Hell, I recently looked at trying Amtrak from Chicago to Denver and it was WAY MORE expensive than a flight and 8 times as long. Make it a 300mph train and it's still 2-3x's as long as a flight. Even with high speed, my MDW to DEN flight is faster and cheaper 10 out of 10 times. Hands down. Safer too.

So ultimately it is corruption. Skip the inefficiency or incompetence. There's little, to no need for it in the states. I don't listen to Rush or anyone. It's common sense.

kt1652 says

Efficient mass transport, we are the dunce of the 1st world.

I don't think investing in 18th century technology (trains) is all that progressive or forward thinking to get us ahead of the pack. I want Uber Drones to pick me up and fly me around SoCal. That is the future I was promised back when California was actually a dynamic State with a can-do culture.

The US is much bigger geographically than most of the 1st world and it is alot more difficult and less efficient to try and lay tracks after cities have spent 100+ years building out. Let alone a State like California with active fault lines, mountain ranges and a myriad of environmental regulations and hustlers making any construction project of that size nearly impossible.

It would have been much smarter to invest those billions in a fleet of very nice buses and maybe improve some of the existing light rail and airport systems in California.

socal2 says

The US is much bigger geographically than most of the 1st world and it is alot more difficult and less efficient to try and lay tracks after cities have spent 100+ years building out.

This. While airports are expensive, it's one location and not a thousand miles of track, RR ties, gravel, land, switches, generators, signals, etc, etc.... High speed RR is never going to be efficient here. Learn a chart a pilot needs to know. You'll see there's RR tracks in the air essentially.

Changing times too. There's little need for MOST people to travel 100-200 miles in a short amount of time. Any further and there's a stop every 50 or less miles (oh... that's efficient). That's what high speed rail is in other countries or continents and it makes sense for them. As more and more people work from home, those trains will be less and less filled in Europe or other countries though.

More has happened in 120 years and a lot of people don't comprehend that the next 120 years are going to flip even faster. Rail is dead. It's helped to build the US and remains a vastly important infrastructure component and will in the future. Not for moving people though.

Ultimately to the rail people, just get over your fear of flying. It's sick how a few influential scared flyers can cause such a stir over something so logically wrong.

Yeah, if it takes 20 years to talk about a solution but "we got nothin, bro", at the end. Why don't we wait for the ultimate perfect solution before we act?
Indecision has a price.
RE prices are ridiculous in SF Bay Area, larglt due to demand from competition from folks who have jobs there. Imagine if workers can ride a maglev train from Stockton, Sacranento and arrive refreshed, rested in <1 hour.
Edit: spelling - from phone

kt1652 says

Imagine if workers can ride a maglev train from Stockton, Sacranento and arrive refreshed, rested in <1 hour.

How does a fucking wheels-on-rails choo-choo between Fresno and Bakersfield help to achieve that dream of living in Stockton? What was the fucking point to even plan a passenger railroad between SF and LA when this particular route is already covered by aviation so cheaply and efficiently?

Hugolas_Madurez says

What was the fucking point to even plan a passenger railroad between SF and LA when this particular route is already covered by aviation so cheaply and efficiently?

Not sure much else needs to be said. You can't force logic on people.

Is Calif Larger Than China?
Brilliant logic. American people won't give up single occupancy commuting?
What is there is a real alternative?
"Common sense, ev'yone knows that", wow, impressive.
" America’s most productive cities are notoriously short of housing. High home prices make it hard for people who aren’t inherently wealthy to afford to live in cities like Boston, New York, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle. This problem is costly. The barrier to urban newcomers reduces total U.S. economic growth by 36 percent, recent researchshows."
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwijiZHvtfbhAhWniVQKHVmtD8QQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fopinion%2Farticles%2F2019-02-28%2Fhigh-speed-rail-can-solve-housing-shortages&psig=AOvVaw1pL_kebbgvrHE3KCanLdWb&ust=1556665727697500">www.bloomberg.com%2Fopinion%2Farticles%2F2019-02-28%2Fhigh-speed-rail-can-solve-housing-shortages&psig=AOvVaw1pL_kebbgvrHE3KCanLdWb&ust=1556665727697500">https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwijiZHvtfbhAhWniVQKHVmtD8QQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fopinion%2Farticles%2F2019-02-28%2Fhigh-speed-rail-can-solve-housing-shortages&psig=AOvVaw1pL_kebbgvrHE3KCanLdWb&ust=1556665727697500

America’s most productive cities are notoriously short of housing. High home prices make it hard for people who aren’t inherently wealthy to afford to live in cities like Boston, New York, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle. This problem is costly. The barrier to urban newcomers reduces total U.S. economic growth by 36 percent, recent research shows.

High-speed rail could help. That is, if America were more willing to embrace that form of transportation. Just this month, both the California governor and the U.S. president poured cold water on plans for a fast train from San Francisco to Los Angeles.

Yet trains running 200 miles an hour can connect people to jobs as much as 100 miles away from where they live, without their needing to suffer intolerably long commutes.

This has proved to be an enormous benefit for cities in China where fast trains have been built. My own research has measured the real estate price growth in medium-sized cities when they become connected to big cities by high-speed rail. The trains effectively move second-tier cities such as Tianjin and Suzhou “closer” to megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai.

Given the huge disparities in productivityacross U.S. cities and the opposition to building significant quantities of new housing, fast rail transit is a feasible way to provide affordable access to jobs. Consider that the median home price in San Jose, California, is $631 per square foot, four times as high as that in Merced, which lies 100 miles away. If it were possible to commute at high speeds from Merced to San Jose, workers could have both good jobs and homes within their means.

A short high-speed rail line from Merced to San Jose would obviously be less expensive to build than one from San Francisco to Los Angeles, and the line could always be extended in the future. This would curtail costs while still triggering a construction boom that would create new opportunities, especially for relatively low-paid workers.

In China, my colleagues and I have found, high-speed rail has made academic researchers in second-tier cities more productive – by allowing them greater access to the superstar researchers who work in the bigger cities. Scientists who live within 150 miles – too close for a plane trip but too far for old-fashioned commuting – have gained the most from access to fast trains.

To be sure, high-speed rail is expensive to build. But the economic payoff can also be great. Fast trains allow people to work and play in big cities and still live somewhere they can afford.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Matthew E. Kahn at kahnme@usc.edu

It was a payoff for election. Tit for tat or whatever the phrase is for this symbiotic back scratching.

kt1652 says

This has proved to be an enormous benefit for cities in China where fast trains have been built. My own research has measured the real estate price growth in medium-sized cities when they become connected to big cities by high-speed rail. The trains effectively move second-tier cities such as Tianjin and Suzhou “closer” to megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai.

He trusts this data? I mean the USA never puffs anything up at all, ever. China is some choir boy now with regards to data? Self reporting mind you? Enjoy the research, glad you have the free time to waste.

kt1652 says

To be sure, high-speed rail is expensive to build. But the economic payoff can also be great. Fast trains allow people to work and play in big cities and still live somewhere they can afford.

To be sure, you can live somewhere else with a COL a whole hell of a lot less expensive and the same paying job. Meh, weather. Fuck it, people like the weather, let's blow shit loads of money to appease the people serving us coffee. Said no one ever. This isn't rocket science people.

It can't work here! We are Americans! We're too dense, when we want to be, too distant when we want to be.
Is it better to have NO solution?
I demand perfect, unicorns or nothing?
Which one is it?
Heads you win, tails I lose?
Again, HS rail is not the only solution, just one of many.

kt1652 says

Again, HS rail is not the only solution, just one of many.

And I think everyone here so far would agree. It has its place. Just doesn't make a ton of sense with our current infrastructure and the future outlook for where and how people will work in the future.

Not just China, they're the newest best tech and build super quick. Japan, S p ain, France, Germany.
You need to go ride on one.
BART, NY subways are butt fuk jokes in comparison.

kt1652 says

You need to go ride on one.
BART, NY subways are butt fuk jokes in comparison.

You need to buy a Tesla, they're fun to drive (they are).

Doesn't make it the best or right solution. We're all assholes here, but that's generally what everyone is trying to tell you. High speed is a ticket to more debt, at least in the states. Works great in Europe. China fine. That doesn't mean Shaq O'Neil having sex with a midget is going to work out well. Big peg, small hole? Or round peg, square hole? Whatever, you get it.

"At risk of sounding like a shameless flack for Chinese infrastructure, I can report that the rail station in  Chengdu was huge, attractive, well-designed, brightly lit, and full of people. I know, I know, I keep saying things like this. Well, dammit, they are true. As a self-respecting journalist, I don’t like to tell the truth too often, but here I will break with tradition.

Having gotten tickets beforehand we waited until our train was called, in Mandarin and English, as was true also in the city’s subway. Apparently Chengdu wants to be an international city and someone thought about it.

Anyway, the train pulled in and looked like a freaking rocketship. We boarded and found it to be clean and comfortable, with most of the seats filled. Off we went, almost in silence, and shortly were sailing through countryside.

At a cool 180 miles an hour. It was like stepping into a future world. I thought about buying one of these trains and entering it in Formula One, but I suspect that it would not corner well."
Fred Reeds, googLe it, friend.
I gotta work.

kt1652 says

Fred Reeds, googLe it, friend.
I gotta work.

No. You had the time to quote it, could have just posted a link. Lazy plain and simple (not personal, just fact).

kt1652 says

Anyway, the train pulled in and looked like a freaking rocketship.

Cool. Our rocket ship would cost 4x's more. It would be more reliable and kill less people overall (that we know about), but again, debt. Logic. Apples to apples. Stop bringing up China or Europe. Cortex and others here have posted why it's not logical. Yet you keep posting about the same things. Post something countering it besides "beautiful" or the "greatest" trains mankind has seen. You're sounding a bit like someone I think you dislike.

Bottom line, the train they were building in California sucked. Even if they managed to finish this thing in the next 20 years, it was still going to be a 4+ hour haul since they were going to be at reduced speeds at the metro connections. There are just too many easier, cheaper and more convenient flight options out there.

I routinely take the 6:40AM flight from San Diego to Oakland or San Jose and can make it to a 10:00AM meeting pretty much anywhere in the Bay Area and make it home for dinner.

kt1652 says

America’s most productive cities are notoriously short of housing.

The fastest growing city in US in last few years was Houston, yet there is no "shortage" of housing despite a megaflood 1.5 yrs ago which devastated ca. 8% of houses. Housing is also not particularly expensive there. I wonder what is different between extremely fast-growing Houston, San Antonio, Dallas on one hand, and Boston, New York, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle on the other hand.

Another issue with (fast) trains is that track has to be built on someone's land. In China, they will just bulldoze your house; in US, luckily, that is somewhat more difficult.

From someone who proposed building more airports...lol.
2008, This site was belly aching of outrages RE prices in SFBA. What happened? Did it self correct? Lol.
Did anyone try to do better?
The landlock geography, tremendous growth of social media tech, google...today it is not better, it us worse.
So, you have no solution.
Just yelling.
We have subsidized the oil industrial complex for a looong time, at a very high cost.
You act like there is only one way to go forward - the same way we did for the last 100 years.
Pathetic. Potus pound the table for lower oil price every few weeks. What next, occupy every oil field in the world by force?

kt1652 says

From someone who proposed building more airports...lol.

Sensible intercity and interregion passenger rail infrastructure should be part of the "basics" kit for modern Western civ.

It is highly durable, cost effective on reasonable timescales, creates permanence and sense of place for people and businesses establishing in the catchment areas. Most importantly, in my opinion, it creates transportation choices for citizens and transportation resiliency in the face of fuel price spikes, union strikes, and security state intrusion at e.g. airports.

Whether or not California is an incubator for porkbarrel contractor handouts, representative graft, and opportunistic letigiousness is certainly relevant. However, the value of these basic amenities should not be understated.

kt1652 says

You act like there is only one way to go forward - the same way we did for the last 100 years.

This seems more like progress and the way forward to me.

www.youtube.com/embed/2W80V54i8no

Shot down by patnetters, are you outta your f×÷ken mind?
An flying EV! Where would I mount my confederate flag post?
It will cost a million bucks, on l y Zuckerberg can afford one.

socal2 says

This seems more like progress and the way forward to me.

Didn't watch the whole video, but this is it. You can have single lane traffic at different altitudes and have them merge over into the air (space) that likely already exists and descent to their destination. Like front door type shit. And it could all be automated. What was a congested city street would be non-existent. Existing roads are opened up to bikes for 90% of the usage. Yet people want to spend billions on traveling to the next city over, in a longer time than air travel?

We have planes to travel distances. Trying to recreate that wheel is just stupid. Obviously make that industry better, but unless you're allowed to break the sound barrier with air travel, I'm not sure what beats it. Not trains. In America at least. The shipping industry would love high speed trains, but it make no sense for people moving with the size of America.

I seriously hope you joking.

kt1652 says

I seriously hope you joking.

Why and about what? If you're talking to me. If you think trains are the future, you've got to be joking, not me.

kt1652 says

It will cost a million bucks, on l y Zuckerberg can afford one.

They are saying the Blackfly will sell for about the same price as a high end SUV.

WookieMan says

kt1652 says

I seriously hope you joking.

Why and about what? If you're talking to me. If you think trains are the future, you've got to be joking, not me.

You are ignorant of energy utilization efficiency Each of us flying on our personal aircraft to work!!
You are also clueless of vehicle cost for pie-in-the sky tech.
You extrapolate small numbers to large, without understanding the economics. E.g. a $20 million 777 is way more cost efficient than passengers flying solo, if that is even feasible. It is pointless. You also think "a solution" must be the best in every possible scenario, region or it's no good. A train is a train, right? A maglev train network is more advanced than a 767 in many ways but you still need other transportation progress, e.g. EV, autonomous buses, uber style car share...
We don't start building HS rail to every town on the map, you start where it is needed the most.
In 2008 I joked, the median price SFBA home may reach ludicrous $800k. So funny, looking back. There were no HS rail in China in 2008. Today, it is the envy of the world, outside patnet, anyway.

WookieMan says

Didn't watch the whole video, but this is it. You can have single lane traffic at different altitudes and have them merge over into the air (space) that likely already exists and descent to their destination. Like front door type shit. And it could all be automated.

Air traffic control can totally be managed with software. Its a HUGE sky up there. We already have self-driving cars that can deal with way more complex traffic and physical obstacles that wouldn't be present in the sky.

kt1652 says

You are ignorant of energy utilization efficiency Each of us flying on our personal aircraft to work!!
You are also clueless of vehicle cost for pie-in-the sky tech.

All you got to do is get about 10-20% of the daily commuters to take the flying drone option and you fix traffic gridlock in alot of major cities overnight.

I envision the flying drones to be computer operated Uber type service that is locked into a unified air traffic control grid. The drone will only need to do about 100 mph under 1,000 feet dropping people off at various mini-landing sites throughout the busy metro areas. .

We pretty much already have the technology available now and just need to get the government regulations, software and battery tech in sync. Hopefully in the next 10 years,

This approach seems far better, faster, more environmentally friendly and less daunting than building thousands of miles of new freeway lanes, railroad tracks, bridges, tunnels and everything that goes with it.

kt1652 says

You are ignorant of energy utilization efficiency Each of us flying on our personal aircraft to work!!

You do understand that it's a matter of years, not decades before we have drones that can fly you around with the same batteries that are in Teslas, right? I dislike the guy and thought he was an idiot for trying what he was doing, but Musk has made MASSIVE waves in a short amount of time in what, a top 5 global industry? Creating a EV out of thin air and doing it better or as good compared to the grandfathers of the industry. Pie-in-the sky I suppose. Tell that to D-bag Musk.

kt1652 says

There were no HS rail in China in 2008. Today, it is the envy of the world, outside patnet, anyway.

And what does their (China) HS rail do? Essentially moves slaves to their jobs. If you got into the books, I can promise you China is losing money on their HS rail. They can cook the books with the best of them though and it's getting the slaves to work, so yeah, it's a good system we should mimic it. Just because a train is fast (not as fast as flight) doesn't mean it's economical. Not even close.

socal2 says

We pretty much already have the technology available now and just need to get the government regulations, software and battery tech in sync. Hopefully in the next 10 years,

This approach seems far better, faster, more environmentally friendly and less daunting than building thousands of miles of new freeway lanes, railroad tracks, bridges, tunnels and everything that goes with it.

YES. I think some people need to find a buddy with a decent drone or something. At the consumer level, I think you'd be astonished what a $1k drone can do with ZERO skill or knowledge in operating the damn thing.

Yes, it's not picking up heavy weight (yet), but it's a matter of time. Outside of prepping the thing before takeoff, I've had a completely preprogramed flight ready to go and it flies it without issue, flawlessly. As socal is saying, the tech is probably actually there now. FAA and ATC are the one's lagging.

Collision avoidance is already built into drones. So local or physical avoidance is there already. Throw in a better ATC grid and you have a pretty solid system in place. The problem is train lobbyist sucking up valuable time/money from what will be the future.

Freight trains are and will always be here to stay. Trains moving people, in a hundred years will be looked at like horse transportation. It will be around still, but it will be a novelty. Praise Chinese trains all you want, at the end of the day we'll be laughing at them in 50 years for those of us that can.

WookieMan says

kt1652 says

You are ignorant of energy utilization efficiency Each of us flying on our personal aircraft to work!!

You do understand that it's a matter of years, not decades before we have drones that can fly you around with the same batteries that are in Teslas, right? I dislike the guy and thought he was an idiot for trying what he was doing, but Musk has made MASSIVE waves in a short amount of time in what, a top 5 global industry? Creating a EV out of thin air and doing it better or as good compared to the grandfathers of the industry. Pie-in-the sky I suppose. Tell that to D-bag Musk.

kt1652 says

There were no HS rail in China in 2008. Today, it is the envy of the world, outside patnet, anyway.

And what does their (China) HS rail do? Essentially moves slaves to their jobs. If you got into...

Again, example of patnet talking out of both cheeks. When EV/renewable enervy is bad - Musk is a scammer, Tesla is a accounting pyramid heading to bkcy. When EV drones are "good", (hey we found a story n I'm sticking to it.) Elon is a visionary, ahead of his time.
"Chinese trains are going to crash, fail, it'll never work. They also said that in 2012.
Why don't you try "highest effective utilization of a unit of energy per unit of dustance", at a scale of billions of people context.
This is almost surreal to me.

Trains do have the advantage that they generally stop in the centers of cities, unlike airports, which are almost always on the peripheries.

I lived in Germany for two years and was very impressed with the train system there. Of course it is a much denser country than the US overall.

And trains are actually quite energy efficient, even passenger trains (as long as they are full of passengers).

kt1652 says

When EV/renewable enervy is bad - Musk is a scammer, Tesla is a accounting pyramid heading to bkcy

I dislike Musk, don't think he's an honest person. Never said he was a scammer. Never said what he's done was bad, kind of thought it was praise. Ultimately like what he's done so far to the auto industry. Surreal, I know, I guess...

kt1652 says

Why don't you try "highest effective utilization of a unit of energy per unit of dustance", at a scale of billions of people context.

Not ultimately sure what you've said here. You've kind of proven the population density point though if I'm understanding the few words spelled correctly. TRAINS WORK AND MAKE SENSE IN CHINA!!!! No one here has disputed that. Move on from China. We're talking about the states and I think for many here, specifically, California.

A single train line, from point A to B (who cares what city) is a nothing burger in the USA. It IS going to cost residents that DON'T use it money. It WON'T be profitable or break even. I don't understand the disconnect at this point. If it worked here it would be working ALREADY!!! Money is money at the end of the day and people will find ways to make it. People moving trains, over distances (even 100 miles) is stupid here. Do an Amtrak search, check the prices and get back. Then add speed and all that shit and quadruple the price and you'll understand why trains won't solve shit. Then stop in a city every 8-12 miles and you're essentially going 50 mph when you could be doing 480mph in a jet.

Look I was typing on a phone, on a slow work hour. If you don't think proposing everyone to fly on electric drones as a mass transport solution is absurd, I guess we agree to disagree. In the real world, solutions have to be proven, technically and the economics of the solution simulated extensively. I saw one on YouTube is nonsense.
It us a failure of the state of Calif to not address something so important. Having made no progress for 20 years. We are living the consequences. SFBA RE prices. Can't go back in time.

Europe is set up differently: Dense Satellite Cities surrounding the Major City.

The US is endless suburbs outward.

In a European Satellite City, their suburbs, the train station is 10-15 blocks from your Dense Residential Apartment Complex, so you walk or bike.
In a US Suburb, the Suburban Train Station is 5 miles from your SFH, you must take a car.

Patrick says

Trains do have the advantage that they generally stop in the centers of cities, unlike airports, which are almost always on the peripheries.

1. Problem is that I do not live in a center of a city.

2. "They" are talking now of a high-speed train line connecting Houston and Dallas. One reason for why it can't get much out of planning stage is that landowners are dead set against giving up their land. TX landowners already killed Trans-American highway, supported by Rick Perry and nearly every politician/Big Business entity. I am 100% sure they will be able to kill also the train...and Big and Beautiful Border Wall...and anything else that will be encroaching on their land. They are not afraid to stand up for what has been theirs for many generations.

kt1652 says

If you don't think proposing everyone to fly on electric drones as a mass transport solution is absurd, I guess we agree to disagree.

Who is saying "everyone"?

As I pointed out yesterday, you only need to get about 10-20% of the daily commuters to get off the freeways (either through air drones, carpooling, telecommuting and light rail) and gridlock in big major cities like Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle and the Bay Area are solved instantly without having to build thousands of miles of new concrete freeway lanes, bridges and tunnels that takes decades to build.

I totally agree with you that we need to find better ways to get people living way out in the suburbs to commute into the city for their jobs to help with the high cost of housing. But how would you do that with high-speed rail in a city like Los Angeles? Would you build 10-20 different train lines going out in every direction in a spoke and wheel pattern to cover the commuters coming from Riverside, Orange County and San Bernardino? That is a pretty difficult thing to build in an already built out city, let alone California. It is alot easier for China to build a train line out into the country and then build a community around it.

I really believe we can get a safe fleet of drone taxis out to market quicker than building thousands of miles of new train lines or extra freeway lanes.

d6rB says

They are not afraid to stand up for what has been theirs for many generations.

Yep.

But they don't control the big open sky. That's the future.......at least the future I want to live in.

www.youtube.com/embed/JuWOUEFB_IQ