patrick.net

My realtor said that she could get me something similar in the Marina for $990k, she said she won’t even think about any offers for less as the market is about to pick up again around December when all the merchant bankers buy them for their wifes.

Mine said that even if the market drops 2% this year, it will go up 12% next year so there will still be good appreciation. Buy Buy Buy.

Mine said that even if the market drops 2% this year, it will go up 12% next year so there will still be good appreciation. Buy Buy Buy.

Mine turned out to be a raging alcoholic, so I had to fire her. Given my situation (bubblesitting), I don't really need one anyway except to keep an eye on the properties I'm directly tracking (because Marin MLS is totally gamed, as we discussed earlier). ...you know, she was entertaining to eat sushi with, though. she could really put away the sake.

Mine turned out to be a raging alcoholic, so I had to fire her.

She sounds like a pretty good realtor - after all 'raging alcoholism' is probably cutting edge stuff so she knows how to stay ahead of the curve, after all it won't be long before all the other realtors join that movement...

you know, she was entertaining to eat sushi with, though. she could really put away the sake.

Randy, where do you live? Perhaps we can have sushi together.

If you are ever down in Alameda, stop by Angelfish sushi, amazing.

If you are ever down in Alameda, stop by Angelfish sushi, amazing.

I will.

Pink Godzilla in Santa Cruz, Kotabuki in Piedmont...yummy!

For those in Peninsula, Kaygetsu in Menlo Park. Excellent.

Pink Godzilla in Santa Cruz, Kotabuki in Piedmont…yummy!

Ahh the Pink, sad to report it's a shadow of it's former self. Food is mediocre at best and the attitude!, I'm saddened as I've been going there for 15 years or so. I guess Mitsu's (the owner) is tired of the housing bubble.

Pop!,

I put ALL my 410K in GLD, CEF, GGN, essentially my 410K is glittering with gold at this moment. If I could, I would have cashed out 410K to buy physical gold, but that is about the best thing I can do now.

For the rest of the taxable money, I'm moving towards 100% target of a basket of foreign currencies, although I am still waiting a few under-water stocks to come above water so that I can cash out.

Except for my home, I don't want any asset in USD at this point. But I am not simply hedging, so I know I am a bit on the extreme. What I am doing is betting against the dollar in the medium to long term.

Frankly I think we are in a much bigger bubble than Japan, lots of Japanese families have a shitload of savings that pulled them through the next 14 years. Savings is an oxymoron in American vocabulary, you mean home equity loans? I just read a piece of a news saying that the national default rate is already 5% on credit card due to the gas price hike, hello, that should only be an impact of 200-300 dollars per household, if people are defaulting for that extra 300 bucks, we are in deep trouble.

*not an investment advice*

Ryan, sushi prices are ultimately tied to real estate costs, one only need to look at the availablity of Toro here, previously when Japan was bumping, there was none to be found. When the Toro leaves so does the real estate market.

I gotta say, I think NAAVLP’s are here to stay. It’s the poor man’s foot-in-the-door product that’s always going to have some suckers who will jump on it, even while prices are going down. That being said, do you think they would soften the blow of a drop in prices, especially at the low end of the market?

I doubt that. Credit standard will be tighted after the housing bubble bursts.

Ryan, sushi prices are ultimately tied to real estate costs, one only need to look at the availablity of Toro here, previously when Japan was bumping, there was none to be found. When the Toro leaves so does the real estate market.

In NY, I paid $60 for 6 pieces of half-sized half-decent sushi. Total disappointment.

I didn’t know this was a restaurant review board.

You really do not know me, do you?

In NY, I paid $60 for 6 pieces of half-sized half-decent sushi. Total disappointment.

I rest my case, sushi prices scale with housing costs.

"didn’t know this was a restaurant review board."

Bring us your tired, your poor, your unwanted thread topics, cast off like so much old sushi--to the Social Effects Thread! We must make 800! There is no thread bubble!

I gotta say, I think NAAVLP’s are here to stay. It’s the poor man’s foot-in-the-door product that’s always going to have some suckers who will jump on it, even while prices are going down. ....

I doubt that. Credit standard will be tighted after the housing bubble bursts.

Right--I'm hardly a banking/finance guru, but I imagine the risk travels upstream to lenders too.

MLS also contains info that neither the county nor DataQuick have. Look at MLS as a marketing database, and it all falls into place.

The data is owned by the local branch of the NAR. It's a copyrighted database used to facilitate the transfer of properties. It is legitimately valuable. In fact, its continued relevance and legal protection are the only things that keep Realtor®s in business. And they know it.

Each local MLS contains different data, and each local Association has different rules about what data is "public", what is Realtor®-only, what is OK to display on the web, etc. I built a fairly big system for the NAR a bunch of years back (you've probably used it) -- the accretion of business logic is nothing short of Byzantine.

BAB and ScottC, you boys need to have some sushi!

'Sushi on the Run' in Los Gatos; might have to wait a bit as it only seats 7 (yes, SEVEN) at a time...but it is slightly undiscovered so wait is short enough to be worth it. The best part (other than large chunks of fresh fish)? It's BYOB...they'll store it in the fridge while you're waiting for seats to open up.
Housing? Los Gatos has one of the highest %'s of homes in so. bay that are worth less than what they were bought for (read this couple mos ago in SJMN i think)...something like 5% IIRC.

Ryan, I think you must of misread the original topic. It clearly states that this is a sushi board.

True, I suppose lenders will be more strict about who they approve, but I don’t see why they would discontinue these types of loans if they find people who qualify and are willing to take them. Unless there was legislation against it, which would probably never happen.

These are very risky products. Unless the borrower is well qualified (large downpayment, high income to loan ratio, significant liquid assets), there is no reason for the lender to take the risks in a falling-price environment.

"Los Gatos has one of the highest %’s of homes in so. bay that are worth less than what they were bought for..."

Undoubtedly, Saratoga, Los Altos, Palo Alto and Menlo are up there too.
My guess would be: people more willingly bought overpriced homes in so-called "status" towns.
laughs maniacally
busy day here--gotta vent some.

"Housing? Los Gatos has one of the highest %’s of homes in so. bay that are worth less than what they were bought for (read this couple mos ago in SJMN i think)…something like 5% IIRC. "

Any idea why? I only have a very superficial familiarity with the area, but it seemed nice to me.

Any idea why? I only have a very superficial familiarity with the area, but it seemed nice to me.

Never been able to figure that one out. I have a contractor buddy that was remodeling a $hitbox a few years back, no yard, 1.2 mil, E. Los Gatos. Los Gatos hills is a very nice area and there are some very cute bungalows, nice area but I don't get the out of line costs. I guess it's the trolls from the Almaden area of San Jose that are looking for more prestige.

Los Gatos hills is a very nice area and there are some very cute bungalows, nice area but I don’t get the out of line costs.

Some may consider it the Mill Valley of south bay, for similar reasons.

Oh, duh, now I get it. I wasn't reading SJ Jim's comment correctly at first. IOW, it means people were willing to overpay for houses there. Now, that makes sense...in a warped CA real estate frenzy kind of way.

Maybe people have been willing to overpay more in Los Gatos because relative to home costs in, say, Saratoga or Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos has been on the more affordable side? (I'm using that word affordable very loosely here)

Los Gatos has been on the more affordable side

Probably not the case, LG has been expensive since I can remember. Always hoitytoity pinky raised environs.

H.Z.,

I have both IRA and 401K, but I don't seem to have any problem in choosing the ETFs (GLD, CEF), at least nobody stopped me from buying them. Perhaps my old companies have more things to worry than keeping their ex-employees conservative :-)

I am sure you are aware that for the past two decades gold did not even keep up with inflation. It actually dropped even in nominal value.

Very true. Unless one wants to "rotate" among stocks, bonds, and gold...

I can speak for LG since I live there. The whole area had a sudden spike around 1999-2000 when people who wanted to move to Saratoga or Monte Sereno for prestige suddenly found themselves priced out due to the dot com bubble, so they turned to the neighboring areas like LG foothill and Cupertino foothill, causing a spike in these two areas as well. But both Cupertino and LG are two LARGE suburbs, and such a small move in the nicest parts of these two suburbs in turn drove the rest of the suburb up in price. But in fact, some parts of LG and Cupertino are no different from average San Jose. People who pay that kind of pricing premium purely for zip code show-off reasons.

Since LG has a nice downtown area, probably the nicest in South Bay, such a name-brand effect is particularly apparent. I know of a colleague who moved two blocks just so he can have a LG address. And of course you have other morons from LG who moved two blocks so that they can have the Saratoga address. Don't get me wrong, I love my neighborhood, but looking at what idiots pay to get in just makes me laugh. Nobody should pay that kind of money to get into ANY neighborhood, especially for a 1300-sft, 70-year-old shack.

Peter - still holding those Fannie puts? It’s party time for the RE bears… I hear that raging Grizzlies were seen storming Toll Bros. HQ today, pulling out the bulls and chowing down. What a day!

Yep. I do not usually buy OTM options, but the Jan-06 40 Put is quite tempting. I need to "diversify" into HBs and subprimes very soon though.

H.Z.,

No, I have one 401K account that didn't stop me from buying anything, and another one with an ex-employer that only allowed me to buy their stock, plus a few stupid mutual funds. So I rolled that one over.

Well, the 20 years of bear market of gold was precisely the reason why I want to get into gold. I think the spike of gold to its record high in 1980 along with oil during the last oil crisis was the source of my inspiration. Here are some interesting charts just about everything that you can look up. They are only updated till 2002, but serves as a good reference anyway.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/historical.php#PRECIOUS

Peter, I’m pissed with myself for not shorting a builder or 2 on the recent bounce.

I did not either. But this is going to be a long bear market. Lots of opportunities.

Can you describe how MLS is gamed in Marin or point me to the thread where its discussed?

The Marin discussion is in here:
http://patrick.net/wp/?p=90#comments

Just do a Ctrl+F for Marin and that starts the discussion on Marin shenaningans.

I'd love to have Sushi sometime Peter P.

...on another topic, why do Realtors(tm) come here with thin skins and get worked up when they're challenged by intelligent argument? This is a housing bubble blog, no? Aren't there new paradigm cheerleading blogs somewhere? I don't know all that much about real estate, after all, just whatevernomics. Seems that a good RE agent would welcome the impending crash to clear out the riff raff that have infested their ranks. Happened a few years ago to programmers and "engineers" (who usually weren't), happened to stockbrokers and traders before that. It's natural; it's healthy; it just is.

I don’t know all that much about real estate, after all, just whatevernomics.

How about ergonomics? ;)

Peter P… lotsa great sushi places in dowwntown Vancouver… cheap too

I know. Too bad I am not there. :(

Whats all this inflamed off-thread talk about sushi? Cant we all just get along?

There will be difficulties. Some prefer tuna, some prefer salmon, some like clams. The differences are there.