patrick.net

Iranian_Oil_Burse says

LOL, if you are so sure 80% of white collar jobs can be quickly automated why don't you start a company which would do exactly that and become a gazillioner in no time?

Why do you think my hedge fund did so well? We didn't hire the useless 80%. Even our receptionist knew a lot about the firm, took her series 3 and was getting a masters part-time in the sciences (full scholarship via my recommendation to the senior partner) to sit for the Patent Agent/Bar exam. Yes, it made quite an impression on all of our clients that everyone at the firm was bright and actively engaged. And with bonuses, even she was hitting 90K+ per year, prior to transitioning into her six figure patent career.

Iranian_Oil_Burse says

quickly

Not quickly because ppl are hiding information and using antiquated systems to prevent it in the near term.

It is same in industrial and academic research - 20% of people produce 90% of results. So...get rid of the 80% as described above

6rdB says

It is same in industrial and academic research - 20% of people produce 90% of results. So...get rid of the 80% as described above

Except here, the total headcount is much higher and thus, will form the voting bloc needed, to get UBI implement in the decade following 2030.

Rin says

Why do you think my hedge fund did so well? We didn't hire the useless 80%.

Meh. It's not the same thing as claiming that "80% of white-collar jobs can be quickly and easily automated". Not even close. Most probably, as it usually case with the so-called "hedge funds", yours simply got lucky.

Again, if you think that 80% of white collar jobs can be quickly automated and know how to do it you're wasting an opportunity to get filthy reach by not pursuing it. Or you're full of hot air. Pick one.

Iranian_Oil_Burse says

know how to do it you're wasting an opportunity to get filthy reach by not pursuing it.

First of all, I've already made a few million from prior work so I don't need the extra cash and at the same time, I'm not in management consulting, where I'd need to assemble a taskforce which is what's needed to poke into the hidden "corporate knowledge", needed to help automate entire back offices of deadwood firms.

Rin says

Iranian_Oil_Burse says

know how to do it you're wasting an opportunity to get filthy reach by not pursuing it.

First of all, I've already made a few million from prior work so I don't need the extra cash and at the same time, I'm not in management consulting, where I'd need to assemble a taskforce which is what's needed to poke into the hidden "corporate knowledge", needed to help automate entire back offices of deadwood firms.

While there are many unproductive workers, the number of unproductive managers in unrivaled - at least the workers still do actual work. Start at the top.

mell says

While there are many unproductive workers, the number of unproductive managers in unrivaled - at least the workers still do actual work. Start at the top.

I'm also including middle managers here.

The real issue is the lower executive to senior executive crowd. Those ppl are so good at obfuscation that it may take coercion just to get 'em to spill the beans.

Rin says

First of all, I've already made a few million

"A few million" impresses exactly nobody these days. Especially in SFBA. You're allegedly sitting on the opportunity to be worth tens of billions and you are bragging about "few million"? Pathetic. Or you are full of shit and you don't really have the idea how "automate 80% of white collar jobs". It sounds more and more like latter rather then former.

Rin says

Even our receptionist knew a lot about the firm, took her series 3 and was getting a masters part-time in the sciences

but did she have teh fat boobiez?

Iranian_Oil_Burse says

you are bragging

Rin says

I don't need

Is not bragging, you troll.

Iranian_Oil_Burse says

Especially in SFBA.

First of all, I don't give a rat's ass about SFBA (phony culture anyways) and BTW, no one on this forum is impressed with you either.

As for automation, one needs a taskforce and then, an IT business systems focus group to automate those clusters of jobs. I've made enough from my HF fund to comfortably retire in New England and then invest my money and not have to work. which setting up a new company is all about.

And since I'm not talking to you but others, reading this, here's how it's done for one sector ... the contract review process eats tons of hours for associate attorneys and their paralegals.

https://www.lawgeex.com

This firm has a system to cut that by 50% which is a lot of billable hours saved.

Then, one by one, each dept or line of work experiences the same thing. Again, this can't be done by a lone wolf in his garage, it needs to be a taskforce which involves collaboration between software vendors, corporate COOs, and then, the so-called in-house experts who can verify the outputs' consistencies over time. This is something which takes time but can occur.

As for established companies like State St, etc, many of their senior VPs resist introducing venues which can lower headcount for their divisions so it'll probably have to happen at JPM which is always nickel and diming. All it takes is for another recession and more and more companies will be forced to reduce headcount for the sake of making their quarterly numbers.

A UBI and a RealDoll in every pot! And pot in every pot, too!

Why would anyone want to associate with Yang?
The guy clearly has issues.

If we automate the crap out of everything and unneeded blokes fill the streets so that we have to give them UBI..... then how are they going to justify on-going massive immigration?

Great everyone gets $500 a month in basic income, now if we can get Iwog to go along with it, and rent his flats out for $180 a month. I think we might be turning a corner here.
And Rin your fancy lifestyle has to go. Marxist can't stand anyone to have more than the commoners. Unless of course you make it to the ruling class. But then you're in the cross hairs of the Dictator. One false move your whole family will get a bullet to the head and tossed into a pigshit pit. Who's going to report that the State Media CNN? Good luck, they were probably in on the meeting when their fate was discussed by the big cheese in charge.They will report you fled with your family.

Rin says

no one on this forum is impressed with you either.

I'm not trying to impress anybody. Neither by mentioning my (alleged) net worth, not by parading around my sexual perversions like some here, m'kay? And especially not by making chilidish assertions about how "easy" is to "automate 80% of white-collar jobs". Mark my words and we can get back to them: "80% of white collar jobs" will not be automated in your or my lifetime (whichever ends last). Let's re-visit this post every 10 years.

Heraclitusstudent says

If we automate the crap out of everything and unneeded blokes fill the streets so that we have to give them UBI..... then how are they going to justify on-going massive immigration?

feelings and reparations

We can give them robots to produce stuff for their populace.

$500 a month won't cut it. The cigarettes alone cost that much.

You need an amount that covers drugs, cigarettes, alcohol, plus all the basic living expenses.

Heraclitusstudent says

If we automate the crap out of everything and unneeded blokes fill the streets so that we have to give them UBI...

We don't have to give them anything.

The word processor (anyone still remember Wang Computer?) and early personally computers eliminated millions of typist jobs.

The automobile eliminated the overwhelming majority of jobs in transportation industry previously centered around horses.

So what happened after those changes?

The lower cost of doing business enabled numerous new businesses that were previously uneconomic.

Instead of obfuscating and holding sinecure jobs inside a quasi-monopoly corporation collecting monopolistic profit margin to feed those obfuscators, the alleged useless people can open their own enterprise because the cost of doing business would be lower.

Reality says

sinecure jobs inside a quasi-monopoly corporation collecting monopolistic profit margin

I believe that this is the "OfficeSpace" crowd.

Reality says

the alleged useless people can open their own enterprise because the cost of doing business would be lower.

Not quite because those future entrepreneurs would be among the ppl who're already in the top 20 to 25%. The OfficeSpacers at most, can collect trash, perhaps work at a sandwich shop, or give tours of the Boston Tea Party ship to the visitors.

What you'll see is a massive drop in aggregate demand for a lot of non-essential goods and services as more and more white collar work gets automated.

Iranian_Oil_Burse says

"80% of white collar jobs" will not be automated in your or my lifetime (whichever ends last). Let's re-visit this post every 10 years.

Yup. Even if automation were to take off to the moon, someone still has to sell it. Someone still needs to assist the salesperson. Someone needs to maintain it. Someone needs to supply parts. Someone needs to do accounting. Someone sells the parts to the guy/gal selling the complete product. Well, I think the point is made.

There will be less jobs in the future in the areas/fields that exists now. That doesn't mean overall jobs will just disappear. Roles will shift and businesses and employees will adapt.

WookieMan says

Someone still needs to assist the salesperson. Someone needs to maintain it. Someone needs to supply parts. Someone needs to do accounting. Someone sells the parts to the guy/gal selling the complete product.

Ok, you said the key word there ... someone. That's a singular noun, not a task force of 70-80% of a workplace's department.

In other words, if 1 person can do the work of 10 and then, that 1 person has 1 backup, in case he's out sick, then in effect, you've just collapsed tons of work which used to be done by a crew of workers.

Booger says

Heraclitusstudent says

If we automate the crap out of everything and unneeded blokes fill the streets so that we have to give them UBI...

We don't have to give them anything.

Yeah, great idea. Let's have hundreds millions people in the street, with no revenue, no food, and no way to earn money.
Let's see what happens...

Heraclitusstudent says

Yeah, great idea. Let's have hundreds millions people in the street, with no revenue, no food, and no way to earn money.
Let's see what happens...

If you haven't noticed, that's been a part of my point of the whole white collar automation thing.

Realize, in the past, automation was relegated to the 'rust belt' where yes, ppl across the Great Lakes area had lost manufacturing jobs but were "too lazy" to retrain to become a programmer or engineer. Yes, that's the rhetoric of the 'rust belt' issue.

When the white collar class gets decimated, it's a game changer. A huge voting bloc will grow, realizing that anytime they 'come up with an idea', it's stolen, worked on by a crew in eastern Europe, and then sold to America by one of the stateside survivors of the crash with tons of cash in his pockets to make it a viable product/service.

Heraclitusstudent says

Let's have hundreds millions people in the street, with no revenue, no food, and no way to earn money.
Let's see what happens...

Food, clothing, shelter, etc. etc., all of life's necessities are brought forth by the market place, not by the government. When the federal government was shut down, there didn't seem to be any shortage of food, clothing or shelter. When the government tries to be in control of the provision of food, clothing, shelter, etc. like in Venezuela, North Korea, Cuba, former soviet union, maoist china, etc., people literally starved to death by the millions!

If there is ever a situation where "hundreds millions people in the street, with no revenue, no food, and no way to earn money," that would be the result of government bureaucrats imposing too many regulations and/or collecting too high taxes preventing market exchanges from taking place therefore preventing people from marketing themselves to get food and other life's necessities.

People too weak to market themselves are too weak to riot, and can be better taken care of by competing private charities instead of government-monopolies (where the monopolistic bureaucrats are known for running roughshods over peons).

Rin says

Not quite because those future entrepreneurs would be among the ppl who're already in the top 20 to 25%. The OfficeSpacers at most, can collect trash, perhaps work at a sandwich shop, or give tours of the Boston Tea Party ship to the visitors.

What you'll see is a massive drop in aggregate demand for a lot of non-essential goods and services as more and more white collar work gets automated.

Even running a sandwich shop would be more productive than obfuscating.

I'm afraid you are making the classic "Broken Window Fallacy." Since you are saying 70-80% of white collar jobs are nothing more than obfuscating . . . let's say if for some odd Keynesian reason we were living in a culture of burning down 70-80% of all cars and all housing stock every year in order to rebuild them as the ultimate Keynesian/Krugman experiment gone mad . . . do you think stopping that practice would somehow destroy quality of life? If that's the case, then London, Berlin and Moscow should be encouraged to bomb each other like they did during WWII, and all the nuclear powers of the world now should just start nuking each other now to deliver that 70-80% annual destruction rate.

Even based on your own experience, do you think life in Montreal would be better off if the Montreal girls service you as they do now or have the French Canadians raise even higher taxes to give every college student in Montreal a stipend comparable to those girls would make in the market place so they don't have to work? Of course the higher taxes would make finding jobs even harder for them. Heck, why not have a 90% asset tax on arriving tourists (with a body cavity search to get hold of all assets) so the government bureaucrats can spread the money around!

The college student enrollments are already 65% female, perhaps 95+% of non-STEM majors and 80+% of STEM majors in college are useless/superfluous (as rigorous college education is really only worthwhile for the top 6% IQ population, as shown in college attendance rate before the government massively subsidized colleges after WWII). They are the feeder stock for the "OfficeSpacers." When those jobs are eliminated, parents may finally realize college education should be reserved for those who have the mental acuity to benefit from a rigorous college program (i.e. the top 5-10% IQ at the most). Sending most of the girls into traditional family life would by itself eliminate the need for 60+% "OfficeSpacers" looking for new placements, perhaps 80% if you count government bureaucracy. Sending them home and making them dependent on their husbands' income may well solve the low-birth rate problem that we are facing . . . and ironically make the women themselves happier! When the SJW freaks and fellow-travelers / enablers are sent home, the real productive people like Linus Torvolds may actually be able to get some real work done again.

I used the term "Quasi-monopoly" because a real monopoly like government bureaucracy or much of the medical system would have no market pressure / incentive to cut out those positions regardless automation technology; in fact, the massive explosion of new positions in the medical industry in recent years have been the exact opposite of automation: increasing myriads of obfuscating paper pushers. That sort of bloating of obfuscators is of course not a good thing. Their cost may count towards GDP due to the current GDP accounting methodology counting all government expense as GDP, but is certainly detrimental to living standards of the society.

Rin says

In other words, if 1 person can do the work of 10 and then, that 1 person has 1 backup, in case he's out sick, then in effect, you've just collapsed tons of work which used to be done by a crew of workers.

I get your concept of it, I just don't see a 10 to 1 or 2 shift anytime in our lifetimes. Probably ever. White collar jobs will most certainly be reduced over time, there's really no disputing that as efficiencies are found.

I'm a believer in the Pareto Principle (80/20 rule). So in theory it's possible for 2 people to do the work of 10. But even the 2 people, like you said can get sick, take vacation or just have a lazy day. So you still need probably a backup for the 2. So now you're at 4, but those extra two aren't as productive as the best 2, so you still need another 1 or 2 after that. So best case maybe a 50% reduction, but I still think that's even a stretch.

Not saying it cannot happen, but an 80% reduction across the board (all white collar industries) seems impossible.

WookieMan says

Rin says

In other words, if 1 person can do the work of 10 and then, that 1 person has 1 backup, in case he's out sick, then in effect, you've just collapsed tons of work which used to be done by a crew of workers.

I get your concept of it, I just don't see a 10 to 1 or 2 shift anytime in our lifetimes. Probably ever. White collar jobs will most certainly be reduced over time, there's really no disputing that as efficiencies are found.

I'm a believer in the Pareto Principle (80/20 rule). So in theory it's possible for 2 people to do the work of 10. But even the 2 people, like you said can get sick, take vacation or just have a lazy day. So you still need probably a backup for the 2. So now you're at 4, but those extra two aren't as productive as the best 2, so you still need another 1 or 2 after that. So best case maybe a 50% reduction, but I still think that's even a stretch.
...

Not only that, attrition as well. if the 2 people doing 80% of the work leave for better journeys the company is in panic mode and needs to hire 10 20% "idiots" for replacement.

Reality says

When those jobs are eliminated, parents may finally realize college education should be reserved for those who have the mental acuity to benefit from a rigorous college program (i.e. the top 5-10% IQ at the most). Sending most of the girls into traditional family life would by itself eliminate the need for 60+% "OfficeSpacers" looking for new placements, perhaps 80% if you count government bureaucracy. Sending them home and making them dependent on their husbands' income may well solve the low-birth rate problem that we are facing. When those SJW freaks and fellow-travelers / enablers are sent home, the real productive people like Linus Torvold may actually be able to get some real work done again.

I believe that this issue will become a flash point for the 2040 elections when it's fairly obvious that many of the OfficeSpace career tracks are decimated across numerous white collar functions including accounting, legal, finance, actuary, etc.

The silver lining here, hopefully, is that "the trades" get even more sophisticated where an electrician would use a lot of AI based tools to improve his day-to-day tasks of building out, maintaining, and certifying facilities. And thus, we may in fact have the best and brightest of the former OfficeSpacers be living a more productive life whereas earlier, they were suffering like Peter Gibbons (Ron Livington's character) or Michael Bolton in the movie.

Still, politics being politics, the former OfficeSpacers will be a significant demographic and thus, will be able to get legislation passed to put 'em in a quasi-welfare mode since most are too lame to work as a trash collector.

mell says

Not only that, attrition as well. if the 2 people doing 80% of the work leave for better journeys the company is in panic mode and needs to hire 10 20% "idiots" for replacement.

That's if automation is done to only a few sectors, ala microeconomic effect, as oppose to a vast sway of white collar sectors so that it's macroeconomic in scope and impacts white collar work, in general.

In other words, where would they go for better pastures? I'm sure that by then, even being an electrician's apprentice will probably be a very competitive position, much like getting hired by a Big Law firm in NYC today.

Reality says

Rin says

Not quite because those future entrepreneurs would be among the ppl who're already in the top 20 to 25%. The OfficeSpacers at most, can collect trash, perhaps work at a sandwich shop, or give tours of the Boston Tea Party ship to the visitors.

What you'll see is a massive drop in aggregate demand for a lot of non-essential goods and services as more and more white collar work gets automated.

Even running a sandwich shop would be more productive than obfuscating.

I'm afraid you are making the classic "Broken Window Fallacy." Since you are saying 70-80% of white collar jobs are nothing more than obfuscating . . . let's say if for some odd Keynesian reason we were living in a culture of burning down 70-80% of all cars and all housing stock every year in order to rebuild them as the ultimate Keynesian/Krugman experiment gone mad . . . do you think stopping that practice would ...

100% agreed. Over-promoting, almost demanding womyn in the workforce is a big issue. Many of them aren't happy anyways, see the dramatic rise of SSRIs and similar in womyn.

Rin says

Still, politics being politics, the former OfficeSpacers will be a significant demographic and thus, will be able to get legislation passed to put 'em in a quasi-welfare mode since most are too lame to work as a trash collector.

Agreed, but that's mainly an attitude problem. If you look around in most areas it seems like there is always a need for certain jobs/services. Trash is one of them, and they do make quite a good salary. Service is still shitty for many aspects and the more people are here the more services are needed. Of course curbing immigration will greatly benefit the job market as well and automation is still tricky wrt everything finance. I think if we curb immigration to a minimum and send womyn back to where they are happiest (at least a majority of them there are always those few that actually want a career and are smart enough) most of the labor pressure will take care of itself. Lastly all the male paper pushers could retrain as nurses, demand there will keep rising.

Rin says

Again, this can't be done by a lone wolf in his garage, it needs to be a taskforce which involves collaboration between soft...

I'm about to prove that wrong. I'm betting. There are lots of opportunities to make this happen in many fields. 80%? Wow, that does sound high.

WineHorror1 says

Rin says

Again, this can't be done by a lone wolf in his garage, it needs to be a taskforce which involves collaboration between soft...

I'm about to prove that wrong. I'm betting. There are lots of opportunities to make this happen in many fields. 80%? Wow, that does sound high.

Well good luck.

You'll help in the rise of the OfficeSpacers' malcontent voting bloc, who'll realize that their college certificates are worth toilet paper, and then, ask for UBI.

Rin says

WineHorror1 says

Rin says

Again, this can't be done by a lone wolf in his garage, it needs to be a taskforce which involves collaboration between soft...

I'm about to prove that wrong. I'm betting. There are lots of opportunities to make this happen in many fields. 80%? Wow, that does sound high.

Well good luck.

You'll help in the rise of the OfficeSpacers' malcontent voting bloc, who'll realize that their college certificates are worth toilet paper, and then, ask for UBI.

Why do I keep hearing people say SAAS is dead?

WineHorror1 says

Why do I keep hearing people say SAAS is dead?

Because for now, it's too generic and thus, is compared to Salesforce.com, which isn't really the future but a present day CRM implementation.

In the future, a "plug-in of sorts", however it's done, will be able to let's say, do an individual actuarial analysis of all the corporate data and pre-existing models, to come up with a pricing plan, real-time, with all that information sent back to accounting to anticipate future revenues, along with getting the prospective client to upgrade their services.

The caveat here is that there are no actuaries in the middle, only the actuarial fellow who green lights the software.