patrick.net

He'll probably explode in the middle of the quad at peak traffic time.

Coronavirus....china trade talks...hong kong riots...impeachment fail...who benefits? any theories?

He's at home with mild symptoms. I agree it's prudent to disallow flights and now they're routing them to 3 airports only, one being SFO. But the dude is at home with a mild cold so let's not pretend this thing kills everyone. It's def not a good image for China that everyone outside China, even in other developing countries, survived that virus while they can't stop their patients from dying. Communism - it never works.

I've been watching the John Hopkins School live tracker:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

In particular, I've been hoping to see the 'Total Deaths' vs. 'Total Recovered' diverge somewhat but so far they have not. ~50% death rate all week and the numbers do change.

I'm sure it'll be <10% though at some point. Maybe outside of asshoe the numbers are better?

You can check and uncheck the plot boxes to see the trajectory of spread outside of asshoe is proportional to spread inside of asshoe.

Hircus says

I heard he's a san jose state student.

I'm hoping he self isolated himself as soon as he got home, but I doubt it. He probably went to school this week, touching hallway and bathroom door handles, desks, chairs, and water fountains, infecting others.

Where did you hear this from?

OccasionalCortex says

Why? Do you see anyone like Trump in the GOP that will come even close to replacing him

No, but maybe after another 4 years of watching him, someone will be able to emulate him.

OccasionalCortex says

Why? Do you see anyone like Trump in the GOP that will come even close to replacing him?

Plague also has "HIV insertions", e.i. surface glycoproteins that share similarities with HIV. Simple truth is that these insertions help the viruses infect humans, so they may independently arise in different species of viruses...a biologist should correct me if I am wrong as this is only peripherally related to my field.

Hmmm. CNBC reports investors flowing money into vaccine makers. There's always a silver lining when capitalism is involved!
Honestly, unless this item mutates into some killer flu.
In 2017, the standard flu virus had a death rate of about 0.13%. This was a very bad year for the flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
The flu was estimated to have infected about 44 million in the USA.
The current coronavirus death rate appears to be about 2%. This would be about 880,000 deaths. But likely higher as hospitals couldn't handle the influx of patients. But is this pandemic level? I guess. I'm happy to see they are taking steps to limit the spread.
Looks like I picked the wrong time to get into the market. /sigh

Kung Flu

komputodo says

OccasionalCortex says

Why? Do you see anyone like Trump in the GOP that will come even close to replacing him

No, but maybe after another 4 years of watching him, someone will be able to emulate him.

Jim Jordan,
Mark Meadows
Daniel Ratcliff
I would pretty much everyone everyone in the House that had Trump's back and really went above and beyond to go around and stab the RINO's all in the back every chance they got.
While they aren't Trump, I think they have America's best intention in mind out of anyone in the Senate. It's a Shame we don't have any real heroes in the Senate like we do in the House. Although I got to tell ya, there's something about Chuck Grassley, he's the guy that keeps Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnel voting on the right side throughout all of this. He sounds the alarm when the Republicans are colluding with the Liberals to run a knife through Trump's back, or he's the one to shine a light on dark secrets they are trying to pull on Trump or hold against him.

The markets should recover soon. This is nothing. Not a single patient outside chinaisasshoe has died. You can't compute the death rate from what you see in China. I mean people die there form speaking ill of the politbureau. How do you know the flu doesn't have a death rate of 2% or more in China? What the markets are worried about is supply chain disruption. It'll pass soon.

mell says

What the markets are worried about is supply chain disruption.

And supply chain disruption is exactly what I am hoping for, if it shifts more manufacturing back to the US.

Looking uglier:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The thing about this virus. It's not like pneumonia which might affect a few lobes or the flu. It's the Acute Respiratory Syndrome that kills. Your entire lungs swell closed and fill with fluid. If you're lucky enough to get an O2 ventilator it basically fucks your lungs up for life anyway, partly due to the tidal volumes the respirator makes collapsing and inflating your freaking alveoli causing more inflammation and scarring. Like immediate COPD from then on, great fun!

Unless you're one of those people with an immune system that doesn't react much.

More modern methods of respirator treatment use positive pressure but CO2 builds in your body which is uncomfortable and people start gasping which fucks things up. So they paralyze you and put you face down. However only if there is a trained nurse who then basically has to wait on you continuously. Not enough nurses in a mass outbreak to do that. Not enough respirators for that matter.

Why? That's to be expected. Imagine you coming home with mild cold/flu symptoms and being quarantined? Lol. A good WTF moment. The patients in China probably catch all kinds of cross infections, I mean people shit into standing latrines. It's terribly sad for those affected but hopefully that's a wakeup call for them to Improve their conditions. And for SF where people shit in the streets too ffs. Nothing good comes from the left.

just_dregalicious says

The thing about this virus. It's not like pneumonia which might affect a few lobes or the flu. It's the Acute Respiratory Syndrome that kills. Your entire lungs swell closed and fill with fluid. If you're lucky enough to get an O2 ventilator it basically fucks your lungs up for life anyway, partly due to the tidal volumes the respirator makes collapsing and inflating your freaking alveoli causing more inflammation and scarring. Like immediate COPD from then on, great fun!

Unless you're one of those people with an immune system that doesn't react much.

More modern methods of respirator treatment use positive pressure but CO2 builds in your body which is uncomfortable and people start gasping which fucks things up. So they paralyze you and put you face down. However only if there is a trained nurse who then basically has to wait on you continuously. Not enough nurses in a mass outbreak to do that. Not enough respirators for that matter.

That's SARS though are you sure people are dying from ARS and not pneumonia or sepsis?

It seems the opposite is the case, it affecting people with poor immune systems, otherwise the dead would be the young and younger adults.

That party catered to crazy leftists for a long time. And the old wisdom about it is pretty clear, you group up with morons, morons will destroy you.

epitaph says

Hircus says

I heard he's a san jose state student.

I'm hoping he self isolated himself as soon as he got home, but I doubt it. He probably went to school this week, touching hallway and bathroom door handles, desks, chairs, and water fountains, infecting others.

Where did you hear this from?

A coworker told me it was an sjsu student, and flashed me her phone. It looked like some kind of announcement from sjsu, but may have been someone else quoting sjsu (like, a copy+paste tweet)

But, I can't find anything about it via google. And, sjsu's official announcements seem at odds with that fact: http://blogs.sjsu.edu/newsroom/2020/01/

January 31, 2020, 5:45 p.m.
Editor’s Note: Updates regarding 2019 Novel Coronavirus will be posted in SJSU Newsroom. The following update was added January 31, 2020.

In light of this afternoon’s announcement by the Santa Clara County Public Health Department (SCC Public Health) of the first reported case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Santa Clara County, it is important to note that there have been no cases reported to the university at this time.

The SJSU Student Health Center is continuing to monitor 2019-nCoV outbreak and is in communication with SCC Public Health.

I didn't read her phone in detail, but it was NOT what I just quoted. Also, they posted that at 5:45 fri, and I talked to her at maybe 2-3pm on fri.

I don't know what to say. I'm wondering if maybe someone misinterpreted SJSU announcing the santa clara case as meaning it was an sjsu student, when he really wasn't. The time doesn't match well though, but maybe sjsu tweeted or spoke via some other channel earlier in the day, which would make the time match up, and thus support it being a misinterpretation.

It's also possible he really is an sjsu student, but they dont want to cause instant mass panic. Especially if he hasn't actually been to school since returning from china.

mell says

are you sure people are dying from ARS and not pneumonia or sepsis?

Oh sure, all three including those two.

mell says

it affecting people with poor immune systems

I was speaking towards inflammation only. Immune systems are more complicated than just that.

It'll be interesting outside of China. So far not one single death outside. It looks pretty damn ugly inside. I watch a lot of Chinese utube channels and it's nothing like what's being reported.

This one isn't Chinese but interesting none the less:
www.youtube.com/embed/VBxZ1XIYmGc&t=1946s

Just the 1st 3rd is the part worth watching.

100K as of last Monday. Probably 1 million as of yesterday. I have co-works who have family near the outbreak location who are freaking out / getting updates on Weichat. They thought it was >1million last Wednesday. One statistician says given the number outside of China it had to already be 1-million inside.

So although the John Hopkins numbers are fun to watch they are anything but accurate.

I found a doc explaining how it kills:

www.youtube.com/embed/okg7uq_HrhQ

One thing he doesn't mention is steroids helps as well.

Fluid in the lung spaces of a young coronavirus patient:

https://news.yahoo.com/chinese-doctors-released-chest-x-012400585.html

Agree 100%.

The only party that matters and should be gaining members is the Constitutionalist party. Fuck the other two statist cuck parties.

Yawn. Buying opportunity. The markets will recover and then some when the scare is over.

~2500 new cases counted since my last post!

About 50 new for each of survive vs. death numbers as well.

USA picked up one new case to total 8 now.

TrumpingTits says

Patrick says

And supply chain disruption is exactly what I am hoping for, if it shifts more manufacturing back to the US.

This is why the government has not quarantined ALL contact with China and dragged their feet on stopping air flights.Ditto for their hacks running the CDC/WHO who are probably threatening the research doctors who wanted to act and act harder to keep their yaps shut.

I don't think you can assert this. Usually people complain about the CDC/WHO because of their incessant vaccination recommendations like for the flu. I'm not the biggest proponent of the flu shot but it seems odd that when a viral outbreak happens they're accused of not doing enough. It seems to me the measures taken are adequate if the US cases stay that low. But who knows.

Thank God! No more cookie guilt trips at the entrance of the grocery store.

The 49ers will take live dumps on the field at half time. Gotta keep the faith.

Professional sports fucking suck, oh and it's staged, the winner is already known by the NFL owner.

Only thing I watched was super bowl Trump ad on a website.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

But will they eat them?

No, but they will fling it at their opponents!

rd6B says

No, but they will fling it at their opponents!

So embarrassing to get a brain concussion from fling poo rather than noble sports combat.