patrick.net

Looks like the daily growth rate keeps tapering off these past few days, although it's still about 25% or so.

That's the thing: it's not that easy to infect large number of people nowadays.
They panic, stay home, wear masks and other protections, stop traveling. Other measures like closing school cut contagion links.
And the more deaths, the tougher the measures.

Heraclitusstudent says

And the more deaths, the tougher the measures.

Right. And the death rate doesn't seem high at all, low in fact. What is it 2 point something percent ?

For that reason I wouldn't be surprised to see the number of infected continue to rise exponentially for a while. The very young, very old and people with weakened immune systems need to be protected for a while. If I was in one of those categories, or a caretaker for someone in one of those categories, I would be very careful until this passes.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=DUDN_1580431941

www.youtube.com/embed/0SWyXJ5L2R0

@HEYYOU try logging out, and then logging in to https://patrick.net instead of https://www.patrick.net

It's the "DIE, BOOMFUCK, FUCKING DIE ALREADY" virus.

Look at this creepy shit,

https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1223298733602934784

RC2006 says

Look at this creepy shit,

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223218977570078721

Next year it will be a drone saying "Why are you out with my girlfriend!!"

HeadSet says

RC2006 says

Look at this creepy shit,

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223218977570078721

Next year it will be a drone saying "Why are you out with my girlfriend!!"

Next year they will have gun mounts and be shooting people.

P.F. Chang picked a terrible time to launch their Crispy Bat Wings in Spicey Civet Sauce entree.

RC2006 says

HeadSet says

RC2006 says

Look at this creepy shit,

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223218977570078721

Next year it will be a drone saying "Why are you out with my girlfriend!!"

Next year they will have gun mounts and be shooting people.

Dealing with the recoil would be a bitch.

Dealing with the recoil would be a bitch.

Hellfire missiles, then. Its been done.

Maybe this would be better for infected people.
www.youtube.com/embed/07rtBip9ixk

This whole thing is still a nothingburger compared to the flu. I almost think it's deliberately hyped to stoke fear in the markets and then set up for a sharp rebound after retail sold for cheapies. I expect a rebound this coming week

mell says

This whole thing is still a nothingburger compared to the flu. I almost think it's deliberately hyped to stoke fear in the markets

If you think about it, they could crush the pandemic by taking radical measures as soon as they found the virus: stop all in/out from China regions without 2 weeks quarantine, close schools and stop economic activities without full protection gears. This would have avoided contamination outside the region and saved lives. But the rub is a large hit to economic activities due to added frictions. Which is why they resisted radical measures initially.

This is starting to happen: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-infecting-global-economy-220135978.html
Economic activities are put on old, stores are closed, people stay home. This hurts the economy and will hurt profit.

Heraclitusstudent says

mell says

This whole thing is still a nothingburger compared to the flu. I almost think it's deliberately hyped to stoke fear in the markets

If you think about it, they could crush the pandemic by taking radical measures as soon as they found the virus: stop all in/out from China regions without 2 weeks quarantine, close schools and stop economic activities without full protection gears. This would have avoided contamination outside the region and saved lives. But the rub is a large hit to economic activities due to added frictions. Which is why they resisted radical measures initially.

This is starting to happen: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-infecting-global-economy-220135978.html
Economic activities are put on old, stores are closed, people stay home. This hurts the economy and will hurt profit.

Agreed. I think the drastic measures are right, even if it is just to prevent damage to your own economy. An dit seems to be working with only 132 confirmed cases worldwide outside of China. Still people will rush and buy their iphones when the stores open again with even longer lines. We had situations like this - for various reasons - many times before and it hardly made a dent, compared to a real organic recession or finanicial crisis.

Growth rate currently roughly at 15%-20% if you believe official numbers. Pretty much all cases in China.

mell says

only 132 confirmed cases worldwide outside of China.

That was an hour ago. Now it's up to 164.

14380 cases, 304 deaths in China.

just_dregalicious says

mell says

only 132 confirmed cases worldwide outside of China.

That was an hour ago. Now it's up to 164.

I think it was from even earlier. The rest of the world will soon have China completely isolated. It's tougher for the bordering countries though.

Also some are probably recovering by now so you can't just keep counting up. ROW still seems fine but not China. Also surprising Hong Kong has been largely spared and theres no reports of health worker transmissions (outside China).

Heraclitusstudent says

14380 cases, 304 deaths in China.

Looks like still 20%-25% steady growth then.

2590 new cases in China, that's 18%, a clear slowdown from the original ramp.

https://apnews.com/ae3b771d965a635e438cfdeeedb62b71

The population of Wuhan is 11M people while the Chinese government locked down 50M people. Could the problem be at least 5x of what they’re actually reporting?

They treated a very sick patient in Thailand with hiv/flu AVs and she improved dramatically within 48 hours. I think at this point it is very manageable and just a hygiene and supply issue for China. We may have reached a turning point for the better, Oseltamivir is one of them, I believe that's Tamiflu.

Seems to resolve quickly for people who don't get the respiratory syndrome. I a saw a doctor last night talk about a German guy who got it on the 20th, started to feel ill on the 24th, began to feel better on the 26th and went back to work on the 27th. He was still shedding virus particles on the 29th. That is when they caught up with him. He didn't even know it was the Tecatevirus.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-cenbank/china-to-inject-174-billion-of-liquidity-on-monday-as-markets-reopen-idUSKBN1ZW074

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said last week that the virus could force companies to re-evaluate their supply chains, potentially returning some jobs to the United States.

Yes!

26 million flu cases and 25000 deaths in the US alone - and it's not even a severe season. So wtf is this coronavirus hype all about.

mell says

26 million flu cases and 25000 deaths in the US alone - and it's not even a severe season. So wtf is this coronavirus hype all about.

If this spreads the same as the flu your 26 million would equal 5.2million deaths (if death rate is 2%) in the US not counting how overloaded hospitals would get. Also I think we would rapidly run out of all of the common drugs used to treat breathing issues from pneumonia. With the way China is ran I would think they are under reporting as much as they can.

RC2006 says

mell says

26 million flu cases and 25000 deaths in the US alone - and it's not even a severe season. So wtf is this coronavirus hype all about.

If this spreads the same as the flu your 26 million would equal 5.2million deaths (if death rate is 2%) in the US not counting how overloaded hospitals would get. Also I think we would rapidly run out of all of the common drugs used to treat breathing issues from pneumonia. With the way China is ran I would think they are under reporting as much as they can.

Yeah but there's zero quarantine for the flu and by now almost total quarantine for this so this won't spread much beyond China. Plus if the anti viral cocktail helps for most cases they have plenty of it since it's common flu and hiv AVs so they need to make sure people take them right away on suspicion before developing complications.

Also the flu virus mutates much more rapidly which makes it a challenge each year. Cvs don't mutate much. Still all these measures are very important until there's a vaccine. Good to stay vigilant.

If there's a bad flu season stock up on Tamiflu and immediately take on onset of high fever.

flu seemed pretty weak this year, so far I'm the only one to get it in family and had a 100 fever for 3 days just felt tired.. Truth be told it was kind of nice I just stayed in room and watched TV without being bothered lol.

Looks like the daily growth rate keeps tapering off, fairly rapidly.

I took the daily data from here
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

and ran it through a script to calculate the daily growth rate. They obviously have a graph, but I feel these numbers add value.

Here's the results, taken 1 day at a time:


Jan 22 to Jan 23 (1 days)
555 to 653 = 98 growth
CDGR 17.66%

Jan 23 to Jan 24 (1 days)
653 to 2040 = 1387 growth
CDGR 212.40%

Jan 24 to Jan 25 (1 days)
2040 to 2757 = 717 growth
CDGR 35.15%

Jan 25 to Jan 26 (1 days)
2757 to 4464 = 1707 growth
CDGR 61.92%

Jan 26 to Jan 27 (1 days)
4464 to 6087 = 1623 growth
CDGR 36.36%

Jan 27 to Jan 28 (1 days)
6087 to 7805 = 1718 growth
CDGR 28.22%

Jan 28 to Jan 29 (1 days)
7805 to 9818 = 2013 growth
CDGR 25.79%

Jan 29 to Jan 30 (1 days)
9818 to 11353 = 1535 growth
CDGR 15.63%

Jan 30 to Jan 31 (1 days)
11353 to 14473 = 3120 growth
CDGR 27.48%

Jan 31 to Feb 1 (1 days)
14473 to 16780 = 2307 growth
CDGR 15.94%

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+17.66%2C212.40%2C35.15%2C61.92%2C36.36%2C28.22%2C25.79%2C15.63%2C27.48%2C15.94


and 3 days at a time, which helps smooth the trend


Jan 22 to Jan 25 (3 days)
555 to 2757 = 2202 growth
CDGR 70.63%

Jan 23 to Jan 26 (3 days)
653 to 4464 = 3811 growth
CDGR 89.79%

Jan 24 to Jan 27 (3 days)
2040 to 6087 = 4047 growth
CDGR 43.97%

Jan 25 to Jan 28 (3 days)
2757 to 7805 = 5048 growth
CDGR 41.46%

Jan 26 to Jan 29 (3 days)
4464 to 9818 = 5354 growth
CDGR 30.05%

Jan 27 to Jan 30 (3 days)
6087 to 11353 = 5266 growth
CDGR 23.09%

Jan 28 to Jan 31 (3 days)
7805 to 14473 = 6668 growth
CDGR 22.86%

Jan 29 to Feb 1 (3 days)
9818 to 16780 = 6962 growth
CDGR 19.56%

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+70.63%2C89.79%2C43.97%2C41.46%2C30.05%2C23.09%2C22.86%2C19.56