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Social effects of the bubble


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2005 Sep 21, 3:01am   51,013 views  583 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Per Jamie's request

What kind of social impact do you think there has been by the bubble? Are people any different because of the wealth effect? What about the social impact on people who have not bought into the RE market? Do you think what we are seeing is predictable human behavior that will occur again in the next bubble?

Is there a social impact we haven't discussed yet?

#bubbles

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505   SQT15   2005 Oct 6, 12:44pm  

JeffMN

It's interesting to hear a Gen Y perspective of your own generation. You seem very well spoken and intelligent. Hopefully people like you will be able to salvage some morality out of your generation. I totally agree with your assessment of the Hollywood culture. I've experienced it firsthand and it's as bad as it seems.

506   Jamie   2005 Oct 6, 12:50pm  

Interesting, JeffMN. I probably agree with you, though I haven't given the generation younger than me that much thought yet because I'm only now figuring out that there *are* some people younger than me, LOL. I'm Gen X, and your comments on the Hollywood elite are particularly interesting to me because I realized, I can't even remember much of a Hollywood elite that was my age when I was in my teens/early twenties. I was not at all tuned into that culture--too busy going to college, working, and then I lived in Europe for years and lost touch with American culture altogether.

But now it's almost impossible not to turn on CNN or any other channel and hear the things that the 20-something Hollywood elite are up to. Makes me want to barf. I have to force myself to avert my eyes from the magazines at the grocery store to avoid getting all caught up in the lurid details of the latest Hollywood scandal.

Anyway, I think we rant about the Boomers a lot because they are in control right now, and because we are at the age where we're starting to look around at the mess the generation before us made and wonder how we're going to clean it up.

507   Peter P   2005 Oct 6, 5:18pm  

I think Gen-X is the paranoid generation. I myself probably worry too much, about everything.

508   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 4:32am  

" think Gen-X is the paranoid generation. I myself probably worry too much, about everything. "

Peter P, are you worrying about worrying too much? ;-)

509   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 4:41am  

"Regarding the generation “in control,” if you look at the White House, is Georgie in control or are Papa Bush and Cheney running the show? "

Given some of the dumb things George W says, if he's just a puppet, he's doing a really bad job of it. :-P Sorry, he's an easy target. But I do believe he's a man with strong convictions and that he makes leadership decisions based on those convictions...

As far as control, I dunno. My only thought: I think the media has a ton of control in this country. Because they choose what *is* news in the first place, and that is a powerful thing. Then they also, often without intending to , give the news a slant that reflects their political views. Popularity polling has played a part in the destruction of leadership in this country. So now we have leaders who are the best at pandering to as many demographics as possible, rather than leaders who are truly great. I would even go so far as to suggest that this polling phenomenon has played a big part into the red state/blue state division.

510   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 4:55am  

Peter P, are you worrying about worrying too much?

You are reading my mind.

511   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 11:21am  

"I grew up with MTV and now I can’t even watch it because it’s all geared to a generation I really don’t understand. "

Scary, isn't it? MTV strikes me as so shallow and stupid now, but hey, I was a HUGE Beavis and Butt-head fan, so who am I to criticize? :-)

"And let’s not forget media news coverage. I said it before, and I still think it holds true; it’s all about ratings and circulation. The news media deliberately hypes up the news to gain viewership, and not coincidentally creating a large amount of fear in society by highlighting the negative and ignoring the good. "

This from a journalism major?! ;-) I agree with you completely.

512   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 11:52am  

The news media deliberately hypes up the news to gain viewership, and not coincidentally creating a large amount of fear in society by highlighting the negative and ignoring the good.

I think they will leverage the fear of the "avian flu" very soon.

513   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 12:36pm  

"I think they will leverage the fear of the “avian flu” very soon."

Seems like it's already happening. I can't turn on CNN without hearing about avian flu news. There was even a story yesterday, I think, on the news about *why* avian flu is in the news.

514   Jamie   2005 Oct 7, 12:40pm  

"We watch the BBC News now on PBS every night which gives a different slant to the “world news,” "

I miss getting CNN International. It was far from perfect, but it was truly bizarre coming back to the US and having to go from that network to the domestic version of CNN. The news here is more sensational, padded with more fluff pieces, and seemingly more interested in flash (attractive newspeople) than content.

515   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:08pm  

Flu can be a real threat as a pandemic can truly disrupt the world. I was actually very interested in the subject 10 years ago. Robin Cook was my favorite writer at that time.

516   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:09pm  

I think they will leverage the fear of the “avian flu” very soon.

I think this is already happening too. I saw a very alarmist piece on this on one of the "news magazine" programs. But the interesting thing was that they said the flu was still not directly transmitted to humans from birds. Rather infected humans ate infected bird and that's how they got the flu. The said that the flu virus would have to make a genetic leap from birds to humans before it would have the possibility of becoming a pandemic. But do you think this part of the story was stressed? No way. They made it seem as if this was something that could literally happen any day. And they made the point of stressing that if it happened this year ( or more accurately in the next 6 months) the US would not have enough vaccine. So, in order for the avian flu to become the pandemic we are being told it will be, it has to occur very soon. Otherwise it's very likely we'll have an adequate supply of the vaccine. But that hasn't stopped the media from sensationalizing this story.

This from a journalism major?! I agree with you completely.

It was my experience working in the journalism field that gave me such a jaded view. I really think you have to sell your soul to work in the media and sleep at night.

517   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:10pm  

I miss getting CNN International. It was far from perfect, but it was truly bizarre coming back to the US and having to go from that network to the domestic version of CNN.

I follow Google news. :)

BBC is great. Too bad I do not have cable anymore.

518   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:10pm  

800!

519   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:13pm  

The said that the flu virus would have to make a genetic leap from birds to humans before it would have the possibility of becoming a pandemic. But do you think this part of the story was stressed? No way. They made it seem as if this was something that could literally happen any day.

It appears that they like to manipulate fear. Just try to imagine what they will be saying when the housing bubble is bursting? Will it be something like, "tomorrow may be the day your home loses half of its value!"

520   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:19pm  

The one thing I learned working in television is that the truth is flexible and will be manipulated at will for ratings. I risked getting fired many times by trying to protect people I was working with. I actually withheld information from producers because I knew it would be used irresponsibly or even distorted for the benefit of the show.

521   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:23pm  

The one thing I learned working in television is that the truth is flexible and will be manipulated at will for ratings.

Truth is not rigid by any measure. Even if truth is absolute, the presentation of truth can be creative. :)

522   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:27pm  

Truth is not rigid by any measure. Even if truth is absolute, the presentation of truth can be creative.

Absolutely. But I have seen facts deliberately distorted for personal gain.

523   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:34pm  

Absolutely. But I have seen facts deliberately distorted for personal gain.

I would not be surprised. I guess the media is for entertainment only? This is a really sad fact for journalism.

I am a bit optimistic about the internet being part of the media though. SactoQt, I think you should have your own blog about things that you care about. I am sure you will be successful. I am serious.

And I will have a food blog, perhaps... ;)

524   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:39pm  

I am a bit optimistic about the internet being part of the media though. SactoQt, I think you should have your own blog about things that you care about. I am sure you will be successful. I am serious.

And I will have a food blog, perhaps…

I'm flattered. Who knows, maybe I will. I think promoting honesty in the media is something the public should do. I've often thought it would be fun to print conflicting news stories on a blog from various sources and point out the biases; and then try to find the truth that surely lies in-between the varying agendas. Kind of tough to devote the time necessary with two small kids though. Maybe someday.

I'd love to read your food blog... :)

525   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 5:51pm  

One thing I should say though.........
There are those in the media, very rare though they be, who do feel a responsibility to present the truth as accurately as possible. There are those who put themselves in harms way, such as embedded reporters in Iraq, who do try to present the story as truthfully as possible. (Though with a father-in-law who is a General, I also know there is a lot of news not being presented)

But it is hard for me not to be jaded because the majority of what I saw first-hand was not altruistic in nature. It made me sad to see something that could be a noble profession turned into something kind of sordid most of the time. I just couldn't justify continuing in a career that made me feel as if I'd have to sell out to survive.

526   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 5:58pm  

There are those in the media, very rare though they be, who do feel a responsibility to present the truth as accurately as possible. There are those who put themselves in harms way, such as embedded reporters in Iraq, who do try to present the story as truthfully as possible.

Kudo to those people.

Hopefully information technology can improve the situation.

One fundamental question: would you rather see the sad truth or a rosy illusion if the subject has little effect on you anyway?

527   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 6:04pm  

One fundamental question: would you rather see the sad truth or a rosy illusion if the subject has little effect on you anyway?

I can't help but feel that any fallacy ends up being harmful in some way. Think of the rosy illusion of a robust economy or housing market. If people buy because of the illusion, they end up being harmed in the long run. Yes, they should independently research the subject, but people are notoriously short-sighted and having an irresponsible media doesn't do anyone any good. A sad truth may end up saving someone some grief down the road, a much better outcome IMO.

528   SQT15   2005 Oct 7, 6:05pm  

Anyway, the sad truth is I must go to bed; the children will wake up early and I am already sleep deprived. Nite Peter.

529   Peter P   2005 Oct 7, 6:07pm  

Good night.

530   Peter P   2005 Oct 8, 4:53pm  

Are we continuing for numbers …. say 1000 posts?

But there is no thread bubble...

531   SQT15   2005 Oct 9, 2:38am  

One concern I have is this blog should strive to engage a diverse set of people to contribute.

How do we do this exactly? We already know there are a lot of lurkers who may or may not choose to post for their own reasons. No one can really control who chooses to post here other than the times we choose to delete particularly offensive comments. But I don't know how to make the board more diverse. People will do what they choose to do.

532   Peter P   2005 Oct 10, 5:37pm  

This thread appears to be in some seasonal dip.

533   SQT15   2005 Oct 11, 1:38am  

This thread appears to be in some seasonal dip.

Come spring, the thread will gain momentum and eclipse all previous activity.

534   Jamie   2005 Oct 13, 4:50am  

"Come spring, the thread will gain momentum and eclipse all previous activity."

There is no thread bubble!

535   Jamie   2005 Oct 13, 4:57am  

"One concern I have is this blog should strive to engage a diverse set of people to contribute"

We could bus in a more diverse set of bloggers...

Politically, I think we are pretty diverse. We have everyone from left to right wing, and all sorts of degrees in between.

Opinion-wise, well, I think people gravitate here usually because they believe there is a housing bubble. Maybe the housing bulls are all too busy buying up real estate to chat with us.

We also have gender diversity. (I'm female, BTW, although my mother chose to give me one of those names that leaves one wondering, and always has people in SoCal assuming I'm a middle-aged Hispanic man when they see my name on paper.)

And as far as ethnic diversity, who knows, but I would guess we pretty much represent the typical demographics of the internet.

536   Jamie   2005 Oct 13, 4:58am  

We should rename this The Never-Ending Thread.

537   brightc   2005 Oct 15, 10:58am  

Oh my, I thought we'd run out of space to post on this "Social Effects" thread, then you come back again.

Phuong, I thought you'd said you'd leave this blog for good. What nationality is "juju"? Are you trying to pass as a Zambian now?

Heh, I see from your IP address that you're using Dial-up this time. I wonder why a millionaire like you can't afford highspeed. Are you trying to explain to Silicon Valley residents how the Internet Protocol works? Dude, you're so brave.

Thanks for your interest in the BA real estate market. Keep buying, dude, we need you. Just like fireworks, we want to see a spectacular burst.

538   Peter P   2005 Oct 16, 4:04pm  

See, soft landing in this thread. Comment count is still going up, although at a more sustainable rate. Soon, this thread will be worth 1000K (1000 Komments)!

539   SQT15   2005 Oct 17, 1:49am  

good luck renting… you will be sorry

Huh? This makes no sense at all. We did a rent vs. own calculator on the house we rent and in almost no scenario would it be better to buy. The house would have to see a guaranteed 8% appreciation for the next ten years to make buying the property a better deal than renting. Even at 5% appreciation buying the house would mean spending over $100,000 more than renting over 10 years. 7% appreciation would be an almost break even deal. And before you argue that 8% appreciation over the long term is likely, an almost identical house down the street has lowered it's asking price by almost $20,000 in the last month. As far as I can tell, that means the home values are already depreciating, and in 10 years I seriously doubt we'll see housing first crash and then triple in value. And if that does happen all I have to do is buy when the values go down and it's a win win for me.

Btw, I love that this thread won't die!

540   Jamie   2005 Oct 17, 2:36am  

"We did a rent vs. own calculator on the house we rent and in almost no scenario would it be better to buy. The house would have to see a guaranteed 8% appreciation for the next ten years to make buying the property a better deal than renting"

I was just looking on craigslist at rental houses on the peninsula (San Mateo area), and OMG, you'd have to be smoking crack to think it's better to buy a house there than rent. There are many nice rental properties at reasonable prices, whereas to buy an equivalent house would be well over a million dollars.

I personally have much lower standards for rentals, because I know I"m only going to be in it for a few years, whereas if I were laying out my life savings on a house, I absolutely could not find one in our price range that I'd want to buy. Plus, all the rentals I saw had gardeners included. Another thing I wouldn't be able to afford if I were a buyer.

541   SQT15   2005 Oct 17, 3:47am  

whereas if I were laying out my life savings on a house, I absolutely could not find one in our price range that I’d want to buy. Plus, all the rentals I saw had gardeners included. Another thing I wouldn’t be able to afford if I were a buyer.

It really is amazing the deals you can find as a renter. The house we rent is approx 1900 sqft for $1350 a month. You can't buy a house for less than 2 1/2x's that in this market. Why would I buy?

Sorry? I don't think so.

542   Peter P   2005 Oct 17, 8:40am  

good luck renting… you will be sorry

This type of comments would have been rejected if we were in a normal thread market. Still, there is no thread bubble.

543   Jamie   2005 Oct 17, 8:42am  

"See, soft landing in this thread."

Calling this a soft landing is unnecessarily pessimistic. Moneyed immigrants are busy setting up their first computers and internet connections as I type this and will soon overwhelm the thread with new activity.

544   surfer-x   2005 Oct 17, 8:52am  

JuJu, or Phoung, dude, learn some freaking grammar! Perhaps spending some of that equity to hire an english tutor might be your best investment ever!

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