patrick.net

By the way. I didn't pull that out of my ass. I was hanging out with our CEO (pharmacia corp) in 2000 and he flat out told me that. We aren't going to invest in something we can't sell.

Government's expected us to keep it tucked away for emergencies.

... makes sense to me...

Government's should then fund the research. That would fill the gap.

I think antibiotics will be replaced by Eastern Euro tech: phages

just_dregalicious says

rd6B says

Pharma has too small profits on something that cures you in 2 weeks so they do not invest in antibiotics.

Myth.

They don't invest in that class because sales of new antibiotics are restricted by the government.

Don't know for sure, this is second-hand knowledge for me. A student of mine who works in pharma advanced this idea, and my PhD advisor with connections in pharma was saying that as well.
One could also think that pharma executives will try to blame gubbermint for their companies not looking well.

I always hear conspiracy theories about them not wanting to cure cancer as well. As if it's a single disease.

Total crock of shit.

It's just hard as fuck to solve. We used to just name them by body part. Only very recently are we starting to understand their many molecular signatures.

rd6B says

student of mine who works in pharma advanced this idea, and my PhD advisor with connections in pharma was saying that as well.

I like academics but most don't know shit about industry and many have a chip on their shoulder about it.

In over 25 years at over a dozen companies I have never once encountered such a situation. Quite the opposite in fact. Everyone wants to be the person or on the team who saves lives and becomes famous and furthers their incredibly difficult careers.

Primarily by way of a cure for X disease. In the short run turning it into a chronic yet manageable condition is second only due to the difficulty of finding a cure. Better diagnostics a third.

The implication of these conspiracy theories is that myself and my peers would actually work for an outfit like that is ludicrous.

The rumor mills at these companies are wide open. We'd know...

I'll concede that sometimes man bites dog but that is not the rule.

just_dregalicious says

conspiracy theories about them not wanting to cure cancer as well

That one I have not heard.

Go look at the conversations under stock tickers.

We do compete against each other brutally though. For example 16 years ago a small biotech named Amylin discovered a diabetes drug from Gila monster saliva. An incretin mimetic.

They made a deal with big pharma Eli-Lilly (diabetes company) to do the marketing.

Lilly didn't market for shit and started their own secret incretin mimetic program instead. Total scandal and I'm leaving a lot out.

That sort of crap happens all the time sadly.

In the end Amylin was bought out for pennies on the dollar for what they should have been worth.

just_dregalicious says

Go look at the conversations under stock tickers.

Those are probably professional conspiracy theorists with no other knowledge that everything is regulated by a clandestine secret society, and since we know their response to everything, we don't need to take their ideas seriously.

I am fairly far removed from pharma in my own research, but a few students get hired there to do chemistry, so my knowledge is somewhat limited and second-hand. And occasionally I read something like this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-03/antibiotics-aren-t-profitable-enough-for-big-pharma-to-make-more
I am not sure how close to reality it is, since one can not trust a lot of media analyses.

Note the part where it says: Don't use it. Hold it in reserve.

Article could have been written in the 90s and still been accurate.

I truly think phages are the future. It's amazing that USSR states were working on that back when penicillin was discovered.

They were just too early. Future tech is going to (current already has) make that work swimmingly.

Also says: They're made to be used as little as possible.

If they were used they'd be profitable.

Holding in reserve is the right idea. Just need some incentive to fund them (better) anyway. Can't expect a business to do that.

I like the idea of funding phage research instead though.

Give the little bacterial cock-a-roaches corona virus:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/65455-superbug-killing-phage-therapy-how-it-works.html

Heraclitusstudent says

Yes, government imposed safety tests are known to be too drastic. No one ever dies from a FDA approved drug!

Did you listen to Trump's speech with the CDC this week? In particular when the director guy spoke?

"We'll have vaccine in about two months"

Then he goes on and on about the durations of this and that trial etc., and finally says 1-1.5 or 2 years.

And that were already testing some in china right now.

Fucking FDA man.

Btw I hear people typically don't build immunity to corona even after having the disease - can be reinfected.
Wonder if they can actually create a vaccine.
There is no vaccine against the common cold.
This might just be the super common cold that will stay ever after. (and happens to save Social Security?)

Heraclitusstudent says

Btw I hear people typically don't build immunity to corona even after having the disease - can be reinfected.
Wonder if they can actually create a vaccine.
There is no vaccine against the common cold.
This might just be the super common cold that will stay ever after. (and happens to save Social Security?)

The reason there's no vaccine for the common cold is that there are hundreds of types of cold viruses and unless you find a common link you can't and don't want to vaccinate yourself against all of them - totally different from the CV causing Covid-19 which has not mutated and is a single virus well known by now. The observation of re-infection may be due to faulty tests not detecting a still ongoing infection, or it can be due to other factors related to the virus which are again not uncommon at all. There are tons of viruses you can get reinfected with or which reactivate - most childhood diseases you can get as an adult again, most notably Chickenpox -> Shingles (varicella-zoster). None of that makes it a super bug and the hype around this is still overblown. Most countries act strongly also because their populace demands it, and seeing the media switching from impeachment to non-stop news about the CV surely makes this very suspicious. Nothing more than a glorified flu, this has gotten too much media attention in the US, because after impeachment they have nothing left to blame on OrangeManBad!

And they're closing in on the common cold: https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/09/16/scientists-close-in-on-a-cure-for-the-common-cold/

A second person in California was diagnosed with the coronavirus despite a lack of known ties to other infected patients or areas. It’s a further sign that the disease is likely spreading in some parts of the U.S.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-boosts-border-checks-google-215438086.html

Meaning people have it and just don't realize it.
There will be 100 cases in CA in a week.

mell says

the hype around this is still overblown. Most countries act strongly also because their populace demands it, and seeing the media switching from impeachment to non-stop news about the CV surely makes this very suspicious. Nothing more than a glorified flu, this has gotten too much media attention in the US, because after impeachment they have nothing left to blame on OrangeManBad!

Glorified flu 10x as lethal, that kills people in otherwise good health, and completely overloads the healthcare system where it happens.
Also the governments in China and elsewhere have every political reasons to minimize it and under report cases.
China strongly resisted strong measures until they were forced. Europe strongly resists travel limitations even now.
They DON'T make a big deal to keep people happy. They are forced to.

Heraclitusstudent says

mell says

the hype around this is still overblown. Most countries act strongly also because their populace demands it, and seeing the media switching from impeachment to non-stop news about the CV surely makes this very suspicious. Nothing more than a glorified flu, this has gotten too much media attention in the US, because after impeachment they have nothing left to blame on OrangeManBad!

Glorified flu 10x as lethal, that kills people in otherwise good health, and completely overloads the healthcare system where it happens.
Also the governments in China and elsewhere have every political reasons to minimize it and under report cases.
China strongly resisted strong measures until they were forced. Europe strongly resists travel limitations even now.
They DON'T make a big deal to keep people happy. They are forced to.

The flu brings hospital capacities and sometimes meds to an overload whenever it's a sever season. Nothing new. It's not 10 x lethal, outside of China it's a bit more lethal than the flu. That may change for the better if it becomes endemic. The reason it puts so much strain on everything is that it's being dealt with by enacting extraordinary measures for every infected person, which they don't do for the flu. So yeah, it def will have an impact, mainly on the Q1 economy of suppliers and tourism, we know Europe is a bit laxer than the US at the border. They will be a good testing ground for the true severity of the CV. We'll see how Italy, Germany etc. evolve. My prediction is by quarantining the sick and calling off major gatherings for a while they will get control of it.

just_dregalicious says

Give the little bacterial cock-a-roaches corona virus:

nice, I recall that one of my friends back in USSR was working on phages in late 1980's. Never thought about it afterwards, thanks for reminding.

HEYYOU says

What's your worse case scenario for America & the globe from the corona virus?

Worst case is that very few people die and we are still grossly overpopulated.

Booger says

Worst case is that very few people die and we are still grossly overpopulated.

If it clears out the Sunol Grade at rush hour, it was all worth it.

Another graph from the Wikipedia which shows that the number of cases has leveled off in China.

When that graph starts falling, expect the stock market to start rising.

Patrick says

When that graph starts falling, expect the stock market to start rising.

I don't think this is paying attention to the situation at hand.

It falls in China because of major clamp down on activity, forcing people to stay at home, forcing them to report temperatures, closing schools, severely limiting transportation, etc... that's a severe economic disruption by itself.

It's obvious that this thing will go increasing exponentially in the west until we do the same as China. It's a direct straight line from here to there. So huge economic disruption is baked in. It would take a miracle for this not to happen. For example, maybe warmer temperature will make it go away? Like yes - miracle.

It will also happen in places that don't have the medical infrastructure or social authority to do something like China did. I.e. this thing will keep moving around and be a pain long term.

Don't kid yourself.

The flu has killed over 15000 people in the US alone and is just reaching its peak. If people confine themselves when they get sick with flu like symptoms this is nothing more than another serious flu. Not good but by far not as bad as the media shills make it appear. These things will recur every decade or so, most will either disappear or become mild and endemic.

mell says

It's not 10 x lethal, outside of China it's a bit more lethal than the flu.

This is the first time I heard this. I just heard Italy had about 3% mortality rate, while I usually hear 2%, sometimes up to 3%, for China.

edit - I saw a source claim 3.5% for Iran.

Do you think maybe the lower death rate outside China is due to them receiving better/any hospital care? I'd imagine China hospitals overloaded quickly, leaving most with little to no care. That can happen happen outside of China too, given a bit of time.

edit - I'm now questioning "the death rate being lower outside of China" given that Italy and Iran are the top locations, and they have the same or higher death rate.

I hope Mell is right, but we just don't know. I have had a weird feeling about the way the media has treated this, but I think it is becasue we don't know, and people are erring on the side of caution, becasue that's what will make a difference if it is really bad. I don't think it's a conspiracy against Trump. IF anything this is a chance for him to be Presidential, to the extent that's possible.

I think what we hear from Italy and Iran in the next week or so should be very telling. I guess someone else said something similar above.

In these situations I find myself wanting to be optimistic, maybe becasue it's my nature, but probably also becasue of the relative false alarms in the past few decades, such as avian flu and Ebola. That is false alarms in the sense that they were contained, I don't think this will be similarly contained, but hopefully like Mell said, people maybe it will just be like another flu. People are less likely to go to school or to work than they would with the flu, but will the carriers even know they have it ? Will they have fevers ? I think it's true with flu also, that people are sharing it, before they know they have a fever.

They say children have very mild symptoms with CV, which is good, but it might not be the best time to be working in a school, not that I am particularly worried.

Heraclitusstudent says

There will be 100 cases in CA in a week

Costco this weekend then soon I plan to start working from home for a while.

Heraclitusstudent says

It will also happen in places that don't have the medical infrastructure or social authority to do something like China did. I.e. this thing will keep moving around and be a pain long term.

Define long term pain, and let's bet.

This is a giant nothingburger. I'll bet $10k US deaths never gets to 5% of flu deaths. Give me odds and I'll take the under of 1% of flu deaths.

People choking on grapes is a bigger threat than the corona virus.

Hircus says

mell says

It's not 10 x lethal, outside of China it's a bit more lethal than the flu.

This is the first time I heard this. I just heard Italy had about 3% mortality rate, while I usually hear 2%, sometimes up to 3%, for China.

Do you think maybe the lower death rate outside China is due to them receiving better/any hospital care? I'd imagine China hospitals overloaded quickly, leaving most with little to no care. That can happen happen outside of China too, given a bit of time.

Yes the hospital care in China is likely atrocious or for many non existent. The majority of of people who die are very old and/or have underlying conditions. It's def less than 1% in ROW. Italy has botched it as well and I agree with strict containment measures simply because we cannot afford another flu on top of peak flu season. But the measures in the US are pretty tight, regardless you will see some community spread simply because for most it's very mild and they go undetected. Still of people shoe common sense and self contain them as soon as they get sick it should be very containable.

CBOEtrader says

Give me odds and I'll take the under of 1% of flu deaths.

I would take the other side of your bet, but I don't want to betting on more people being sick and dying. I think you need pretty big odds to bet on it being less than 1%. I wish I thought you were right.

But yeah, I've been thinking similarly, about the media concern being a little out of proportion, for reasons I stated above. But I know I don't know.

We should all have a much better idea soon enough.

marcus says

CBOEtrader says

Give me odds and I'll take the under of 1% of flu deaths.

I would take the other side of your bet, but I don't want to betting on more people being sick. I think you need pretty big odds to bet on it being less than 1%. I wish I thought you were right.

But yeah, I've been thinking similarly, for reasons I stated above. But I don't know.

We should all have a much better idea soon enough.

Flu kills around 500k each year on avg. so 1% is 5k deaths, 10% 50k deaths.

I'm optimistic but 1% may be tight. 2%-3% is a good bet. The problem with the high death rates are countries with poor to no medical care like China or Iran. Even Italy's rate is high at 2%, but Italians are known to occasionally mess things up and they has a lot of elderly among the infected in Lombardy.

mell says

Flu kills around 500k

CBOE was talking about U.S. only. I don't know the average, it swings pretty wildly between about 30 to 80,000. Perhaps the average is near 45,000. Probably trending up with the boomer cohort getting up there. So 5% ? I would take the bet, except that I'm just not comfortable betting on more deaths, even if it is hedged in the sense that it would be nice to lose. Still, yeah, not going to do it, but sadly I fear over a few thousand deaths is very likely.

marcus says

CBOEtrader says

Give me odds and I'll take the under of 1% of flu deaths.

I would take the other side of your bet, but I don't want to betting on more people being sick and dying. I think you need pretty big odds to bet on it being less than 1%. I wish I thought you were right.

But yeah, I've been thinking similarly, about the media concern being a little out of proportion, for reasons I stated above. But I know I don't know.

We should all have a much better idea soon enough.

mell says

I'm optimistic but 1% may be tight. 2%-3% is a good bet. The problem with the high death rates are countries with poor to no medical care like China or Iran. Even Italy's rate is high at 2%, but Italians are known to occasionally mess things up and they has a lot of elderly among the infected in Lombardy.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

34000 deaths from the flu in the US. I doubt the US will see 340 deaths from corona virus.

This will go the way of Ebola and Zika virus in a few months.

marcus says

mell says

Flu kills around 500k

CBOE was talking about U.S. only. I don't know the average, it swings pretty wildly between about 30 to 80,000. Perhaps the average is near 45,000. Probably trending up with the boomer cohort getting up there.

You think we will have 450 deaths in US from this? We shall see

I heard many viruses dont spread well when it warms up. If that holds true for covid-19, the quickly approaching warmer months could be the main thing that prevent it from hitting the usa much. Look at how concentrated the flu deaths are during the winter months, and barely anything in summer months: