patrick.net

It's def serious having to deal with two seasonal influenzas at the same time, and the R0 is supposedly higher for the CV. However the main reason for the higher R0 could very well be that it is asymptomatic/mild for many, so they spread it easily, whereas the flu usually leaves most either bed-ridden or at least housebound for days up to a couple weeks, so there's more self-isolation going on with the flu. I don't see any reason why the CV should be more contagious than the flu virus, they both spread in very similar ways.

China’s extreme response to Covid 19 indicates that this virus is much more dangerous than any cold or flu. Otherwise why would they have reacted like that? That’s what concerns me the most.

PaisleyPattern says

China’s extreme response to Covid 19 indicates that this virus is much more dangerous than any cold or flu. Otherwise why would they have reacted like that? That’s what concerns me the most.

In the concentrated regions millions of people live so close to each other that they need to use drastic measures, also their sanitation is far inferior. It makes sense. It also overloads their inferior medical facilities and will take resources away for people who may need life saving procedures or care for many other reasons. It's severe enough like a well-spreading severe flu.

But they have never responded in this manner to any other flu type virus. It seems very likely they are hiding something about its severity. I don’t want that to be true. But I’m trying to be as realistic as possible. Hundreds of millions of people quarantined, and the resultant immense damage to their economy and society. I can’t imagine this would have been done if there wasn’t a very very serious reason.

PaisleyPattern says

But they have never responded in this manner to each other flu type virus. It seems very likely they are hiding something about its severity. I don’t want that to be true. But I’m trying to be as realistic as possible. Hundreds of millions of people quarantined, and the resultant immense damage to their economy and society. I can’t imagine this would have been done if there wasn’t a very very serious reason.

No, if they didn't quarantine hard economic output would have been down for many quarters. Instead if they get it under control quickly only Q1 may be impacted. It's economic survival for China as companies may decide to move their supply chain out of China. Again, makes sense. No need for conspiracy theories.

My point is that this response is immensely more extreme than any other response China has had to a respiratory virus , a cold or flu , or even any other disease. There is obviously something different going on otherwise there wouldn’t be a different response.

PaisleyPattern says

But they have never responded in this manner to any other flu type virus. It seems very likely they are hiding something about its severity.

I'd actually agree they're trying to hide something, but I don't think it has anything to do with the disease. Between the Hong Kong protests, the US trying to get fair trade, etc. I'm guessing the people aren't all that happy in China. This might be an "emergency" by design type thing to distract as silly as it sounds. We have zero idea how well the government has brainwashed the average Chinese person over there. I also don't put much stock in how the Chinese react with regards to something that may have been their own fuck up.

At the end of the day, this really isn't that dangerous to 99% of people. Especially in less densely populated places like the US.

PaisleyPattern says

My point is that this response is immensely more extreme than any other response China has had to a respiratory virus , a cold or flu , or even any other disease. There is obviously something different going on otherwise there wouldn’t be a different response.

What part of China is economically finished if they lose one or 2 quarters of GDP is so hard to comprehend? Their whole economy is based on producing (cheap) stuff and exporting it. No need to hide anything, it's simple math. They need to get this under control or they slip into a (possibly severe) recession.

WookieMan says

PaisleyPattern says

But they have never responded in this manner to any other flu type virus. It seems very likely they are hiding something about its severity.

I'd actually agree they're trying to hide something, but I don't think it has anything to do with the disease. Between the Hong Kong protests, the US trying to get fair trade, etc. I'm guessing the people aren't all that happy in China. This might be an "emergency" by design type thing to distract as silly as it sounds. We have zero idea how well the government has brainwashed the average Chinese person over there. I also don't put much stock in how the Chinese react with regards to something that may have been their own fuck up.

At the end of the day, this really isn't that dangerous to 99% of people. Especially in less densely populated places like the US.

Occam's razor still points to an accident. Anything else would be foolish. 99% of the time there is a new dangerous epidemic it originates from an animal to human transmission. HIV, bird/swine flu, pretty much all cases. Bu there are still people peddling the theory that HIV was engineered in a lab, or created to kill gays or whatever. Ironically it may turn out to be a net beneficial discovery after many years of bringing suffering as it's now easily treatable and - due to its very low mutation and very slow but stealth infection rate - it's perfect for engineering cures w/ genetically modified versions, such as leukemia or other cures.

Just wait for Hospitals to be overwhelmed by the number of cases, and people showing up demanding the healthcare they paid for dearly.
How long will civilized conversations go on?

Heraclitusstudent says

Just wait for Hospitals to be overwhelmed by the number of cases, and people showing up demanding the healthcare they paid for dearly.
How long will civilized conversations go on?

If the flu abates this won't be an issue at all. The flu is the main reason hospitals are booked in the winter.

Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: 10 to 20 times more lethal.
2 - R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.
3 - For the flu, around 1% of cases are severe enough to lead to people being hospitalized. For coronavirus, 13.8% cases are severe (meaning probably hospitalized), 4.7% are critical (Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). I don't look forward to experiencing respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure , even if I survive.
4 - we know the flu, and we know it will abate in March April. We don't know what will happen for coronavirus.

Do the math.

Math says old people and smokers driving death rate
percentages so high.

Heraclitusstudent says

Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: .

Do the math.

OK, so at best it kills off 2% of the worlds population, we will still be too fucking crowded.

The stock market has changed its mind and no longer seems to think that coronavirus is the end of the world.

rdm says

The only way that holds is if the virus doesn't spread in the US.

Lol, the only way that doesnt hold true is if it doesnt hold true.

Yes, I am saying this wont spread in the US and/or some mitigating factor will stop the virus.

Assuming it is unstoppable is the unrealistic expectation that I am directly challenging.

We shall see whose expectation of reality plays out :) wouldnt be the first time I've been wrong

Heraclitusstudent says

Do the math

This is global warming alarmist type forecasting.

We dont know enough about the virus to "do the math". But sure if you take your back of the envelope math of 300 M Americans times your 1% deathrate (lolz) times almost any % of the population then we have a LOT of deaths.

Me thinks your model is as off as Al Gore.

Captain Crunch is more dangerous to public health than coronavirus.

Have you seen diabetes rates lately?

CBOEtrader says

Captain Crunch is more dangerous to public health than coronavirus.

Have you seen diabetes rates lately?

Yup. It's like CV is the only virus or disease going. Nah, diabetes and cancer no longer exist.

Fact is most our healthcare costs are due to keeping people alive that should be dead. My own father was one of those. It was a miserable existence for him. If you make it past 65-70 with relative good health, you've won the lottery. Very few people 65+ are all that highly functioning (yes they fucking exist before someone gets their undies in a knot).

Let's all be honest, a senior pandemic/epidemic right now might not be a bad thing?

WookieMan says

Let's all be honest, a senior pandemic/epidemic right now might not be a bad thing?

Wear a go-pro, then say that in polite public. Your video would go viral.

WookieMan says

Fact is most our healthcare costs are due to keeping people alive that should be dead.

The sick are the golden geese of the medical industry. End stage renal disease sufferers, diabetics, even HIV patients are absolute cash cows for the industry.

China's Wuhan closes coronavirus hospital as officials hail drop in new cases

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-wuhan-closes-coronavirus-hospital-as-officials-hail-drop-in-new-cases-idUSKBN20P01K

Patrick says

The stock market has changed its mind and no longer seems to think that coronavirus is the end of the world.

Insiders cleaned out the suckers and bought the dip...same as it ever was.

Patrick says

China's Wuhan closes coronavirus hospital as officials hail drop in new cases

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-wuhan-closes-coronavirus-hospital-as-officials-hail-drop-in-new-cases-idUSKBN20P01K

Is anyone really expecting more than 400 US deaths?

All of us are fools for even wasting time discussing this, unless you want to make money off of it.

This is a $$ 3.5 B brokerage using CV to sell insurance... just in case you wondered what our overlords do when the idiots run hither and fro

CBOEtrader says

All of us are fools for even wasting time discussing this, unless you want to make money off of it.

How can I make money off of this?

Heraclitusstudent says

Just a reminder for people on how this compares to the flu:
1 - Death rate for flu around 0.1%. For this coronavirus: 1-2%: 10 to 20 times more lethal.
2 - R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.
3 - For the flu, around 1% of cases are severe enough to lead to people being hospitalized. For coronavirus, 13.8% cases are severe (meaning probably hospitalized), 4.7% are critical (Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure). I don't look forward to experiencing respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure , even if I survive.
4 - we know the flu, and we know it will abate in March April. We don't know what will happen for coronavirus.

Do the math.

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-cuts-rates-by-50-basis-points-amid-coronavirus-concerns-150008506.html

Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points amid coronavirus concerns

In a few weeks when this is over are they going to raise it back?
This type of knee jerk overreaction is not what I want to see from the Fed.

How does lowering interest rates help fight a virus that is spreading?

zzyzzx says

In a few weeks when this is over are they going to raise it back?

No.

Trump's USA - proving that border controls are more effective than "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony"

No surprise that Redditors blocked the post that contained a reference to this Study from last year - which has so far proven itself correct.

Right. Many of the US cases are repatriated ones. For a country with 330MM people they're doing quite well.

NoCoupForYou says

Trump's USA - proving that border controls are more effective than "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony"

North Korea is suspiciously absent from that list.

zzyzzx says

North Korea is suspiciously absent from that list.

CV is no match for Kims firing brigade.

Heraclitusstudent says

R0 (how transmittable it is) 1.3 for flu, 2-3 for coronavirus : i.e. much more contagious.

It's slowly dawning on me that this thing just isn't going to be stopped.

It's more contagious than the flu and no one tries to stop the flu.

China tried with draconian measures and still failed.

It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services. Otherwise we will just have to learn to live in a world where you have a small chance of being killed by a cold.

Longer term maybe we'll find a vaccine or drug.

Yep, it'll effect 1000s of Americans like it does every year. No big whoop.

Heraclitusstudent says

It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services. Otherwise we will just have to learn to live in a world where you have a small chance of being killed by a cold.

Or we could always just vaccinate people

Scientists and 99% of Doctors: Wash your hands, stay hydrated, only wear a mask if you're sick, please stay home if you feel you're getting sick. This doesn't really kill anybody who isn't elderly or immune compromised.

Media: ZOMG ALIEN VAMPIRES FROM HALLEYS COMET?!

NoCoupForYou says

Scientists and 99% of Doctors: Wash your hands, stay hydrated, only wear a mask if you're sick, please stay home if you feel you're getting sick. This doesn't really kill anybody who isn't elderly or immune compromised.

Media: ZOMG ALIEN VAMPIRES FROM HALLEYS COMET?!

That alien vampire was hot as fuck, best part of that movie.