patrick.net

Watching CNN looks like a good night for the Dems.

I hope the GOP completely implodes in 2007, and the Dems die a quiet death 2009-2015. This country needs more logically organized parties.

I think that one’s in there…

no, it's not -- this is our chance to make a meaningful contribution to lexicography... Drop in your Eggcorns

At the very least if Dems sweep the abuses on Wall Street will be scrutinized more carefully. The investor community especially big corporation fear regulatory measures. Alot of scandal broke out this year HP, Major backdating of options (many Tech), oil. Somebody needs to take a big push broom to the floor and clean up the dirt and dust. Nothing wrong with capitalism as long as the playing field is honest.

I tend to believe that housing will not be directly manipulated by the government. The bubble isn't uniform across the country, and it is very hard to re-balance housing supply and demand based on fiduciary policy.

Let's face it, we're overbuilt AND underwater. You can't incent the builders to burn down existing empty homes. Everyone with a pulse and a credit score higher than 2 already has a fancy IO loan, which means more interest rate cuts won't help. And you can't kill the bubble directly with government spending.

The only thing that will equalize the pressure is when stretched individuals start going bankrupt, and banks basically eat the bad loans. Eventually prices will come down (causing more bankruptcies in the process). Once prices are down enough, all the buyers who were waiting will then enter the market. Perhaps that will even stabilize the banks, because at that point the interest rates will probably be higher... although perhaps bank stocks themselves will take an extreme beating.

One might term that "justice". If you can't rely on banks to implement good capitalism, then survival of the fittest must have its day.

Anyway, new laws are forward-looking. You could argue that legislation could allow REITs more leeway to sue banks who sold them bad loans, but I don't think you can Constitutionally make that retroactive.

btw, the next town over has 0.59% of all homes in REO, which makes it the #1 foreclosure town in the nation. Rock on Greeley. Why there was a bubble in a place that stinks of cow s--t is beyond me (for those who don't know, Greeley is a stockyard and slaughterhouse capital of the U.S., and can be smelled 10 miles away on a windy day).

I'd love to see how their elections turn out. Although I believe Greeley is already mostly Democrat due to a blue-collar population.

Say bye bye to cap gain tax break. I see sell offs!

Oh, I get nervous when people agree with me. Actually, I wasn't advocating accelerating a pull-out in Iraq, CB. Colin Powell supported counter-insurgency tactics (probably sensible, given the conditions at the time), but the neocons were having none of it. Even today it makes better sense than our current 'conventional' warfare. We're still shooting at everything that moves over there.

As to prognostications for the coming two years, how about some inflation, some devaluation of the dollar, some increases in the short-term rate, some roll-backs in tax breaks, and residential real estate finds its own level?

Another one bites the dust

"Neocons are chickens."

Sir, I consider that a slur to chickenkind. I'm forced to challenge you to a pecking to death.

"REIC-based economy"

"overbuilt AND underwater"

Kind of says it all for me!

Oh btw "REIC" was one of the few terms Carol Lloyd (SF Gate) actually objected to on our blog! I found that a little weird. So..... as per her assesment all of this is just some huge and random coincidence?

She'll come around.

Allah,

The SDCIA post was hysterical! Thanks, needed a laugh.

"Some of the money was my own from a cash out re-fi"

Uh dude, that is not YOUR cash! It's the lenders and you "may" have to pay that back! Also notice just what an accomplice Home Depot became? No Payments-No Interest for 6 Months! For some flipper dude? Whoa! I understand some suburban couple charging $900 to build a deck but this is a serious extension of credit for people who's only means of repaying the loan is from the sale of the home?

REIC-based economy indeed!

I see senatorial hearing next year addressing lending practices and the causes of the RE debacle. Banks will blame the MB's who will then blame the realtwhores. But be assured everyone will be invited to the party.

Forsaken: Former IE girl here did arnold take it again? I'm hoping that area shakes out because I'd like to return. The IE market has insane prices even with all the Bubble news.

@allah,

It's interesting reading the responses to that FB flipper you linked to. There seems to be consensus among these "seasoned flippers" that the market is tanking (at least in SD), and that it's best to undercut now rather than chase the market down. Looks like at least some of the bulls are capitulating!

Looks like the Republicans will stay in power in all three branches.

I can't say I feel too bad about it. Now I want the Republicans to go and lie in and it, I want them to be forever tarred by their actions circa 2000 - 2006. I want future generations to associate the GOP the way people mentally associate with Fascism or Communism or the PRI.

Who in China actually holds the treasuries and securities? Is it individual investors or the Chinese government itself? Obviously they must be in a very stressful situation as well, since bonds are virtual ownership that can actually be "canceled" (not that the U.S. would want to do that to a manufacturing superpower making most of its cheap goods).

If China owns mortgage-backed securities, does that mean Chinese investors will eventually hold U.S. homes or commercial land as the number of defaults climbs?

Why there was a bubble in a place that stinks of cow s–t is beyond me (for those who don’t know, Greeley is the stockyard and slaughterhouse capital of the U.S., and can be smelled 10 miles away on a windy day).

oh, well, there is a permanent industry there, prices will always be strong -- and the livestock workers need somewhere to live, and think of all the teachers and shopowners and ancillary services. and there's a hospital. they all need houses! it can only go up! i know SF has a pretty bay and good weather, etc, but this is livestock -- and beef is the bread and butter of mcdonalds! you couldn't be making a better investment, just sign here on the dotted line, and watch it appreciate -- your grankdkids will thank you when it's worth $10,000,000 in 20 years time...

I am governor jerry brown
My aura smiles
And never frowns
Soon I will be president

so what's the outcome of the mid-term elections so far? i'm not near a news feed or TV... how many votes were rigged this time?

@surfer-x,

I hope you're kidding about Jerry Brown. Look at what that carpetbagger's done to Oakland and its crime rate since being mayor.

Ha Ha,

Good summation. The only thing I would add is that the Tax Legislation of 1997 didn't 'fully' remove capital gains entirely. At the time 250/500k exemption seemed basically unattainable. A ceiling without limit. We'd all be old and gray before we would see THAT kind of appreciation!

Well here we are just a few short years later and even with a "renewal" every other year we've exhausted it! This thing has been exploited in more different positions than the Kama Sutra for crissakes. Does it get any more jaded than this?

My bet is that they will still come to work (wouldn’t you?), but will not receive the benefits.

Then at least the harm can be minimized. We *really* need a guest worker program.

I don’t have a problem with having an official language either. Signs are in English, your driving test should be as well.

There is no reason not to have an official language.

Another would expand the list of government benefits denied to illegal immigrants.

How about a 31% backup withholding for all non-bank money transfers in which a valid SSN or TIN is not specified?

I say tax the smokers to help pay for the hospitals that are going out of business giving birth to illegals with no insurance.

It is more effective to tax the illegals.

Flat tax. Sales tax. Repeal social security and minimum wage!

OO said:
But I’d like to see Republicans retaining the current control so that Bush will have NOBODY to blame when Iraq eventually blows right up in his face.

While it would be good to see W get his commeuppance for letting his chums fuck up the country, I don't mind him getting away if it means we can find a way stop wasting 100 American and 4000 Iraqi lives PER MONTH.

SP

Flat tax. Sales tax. Repeal social security and minimum wage!

These taxes may indeed disproportionately affect illegals, but they also have impact on other groups as well. In that vein, you can also add lottery tickets - not only taxes the poor disproportionately, but also the mathematically challenged.

SFWoman Says:

> DS,They are constantly updating
> their threads: http://dailykos.com/

It is going to be fun to read these guys complain about Lamont loosing to Lieberman after spending tons of money, including $16mm of his own cash (almost as much as Feinstein’s new home on Lyon cost)...

skibum Says:

> In that vein, you can also add lottery tickets -
> not only taxes the poor disproportionately,
> but also the mathematically challenged.

The Lottery is a "tax on people that have never taken a statistics class"...

I suppose the lotto ticket is a license to dream.

That's the same thought process that goes into flipping houses, day trading stocks during dot.com, buying beanie babies: hoping for a payday to easy money without having to work for it. It's probably what motivated ConfusedRealtor to go become a realtor. That, and not being able to find a job as an IBanker.

In that vein, you can also add lottery tickets - not only taxes the poor disproportionately, but also the mathematically challenged.

If you reduce the probability to win by a factor of 10, people will still buy them.

You make a good point except that the illegals already pay sales tax. Some argue that they are still a burden on the economy because of the social services that they use. As a group, they use a disproportionate amount.

True. But...

1. Some states do not have sales tax
2. Most people pay more social security tax than sales tax

I strongly believe that welfare keeps the poor poor.

The only way to eliminate poverty is to eliminate welfare.

SFWoman said:
if we are ever going to go back to Afganistan and eliminate the Taliban and terrorist camps there for once and for all.

Fat chance (by the way, the largest camps are actually across the border in Pakistan). There is a strong likelihood that by 2008, Afghanistan will be in full-blown civil war. The most likely outcome of that war will be a reconstituted Taliban retaking Kabul. The US has lost interest in the Unocal pipeline through Aghanitan-Balochistan, and is more likely to route Turkmen oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. As a result, the US priority in Afghanistan has changed significantly. We no longer care about stabilizing it for a pipeline, we just care enough to keep them from being a direct threat to US interests.

SP

I strongly believe that welfare keeps the poor poor.
The only way to eliminate poverty is to eliminate welfare.

jeez. not with a system that takes away UB after 9 months or whatever it is. someone here has shown that the incarceration rate in US jails almost exactly tracks the long-term unemployment rate in Oz, where people in Oz stay on welfare indefinitely rather than survive by committing crime. is it not cheaper to provide UB than to process people as felons?

'welfare' also includes old age pensions, child care benefits to middle class families, free school education, free hospital treatment, etc. the US is routinely placed at the bottom of any taxonomy of modern affluent OECD welfare states.

many welfare intitiatives were progressively brought in throughout the 20th century in a response to addressing entrenched poverty. doctors were shocked at the state of malnutrition of many Londoners showing up to enlist to 'fight for their country' in WWII. old age pensions were introduced in the 30s, and structured cash UBs gradually came online following the Great Depression rather than breadlines and soup kitchens and random acts of charity. people like reagan formulated and opposed 'welfare dependency', and it would be a good idea to reduce any such dependency should it be shown to exist. this is distinct from 'abolishing welfare' in a system where employment and housing are otherwise not guaranteed through market arrangements.

someone here has shown that the incarceration rate in US jails almost exactly tracks the long-term unemployment rate in Oz, where people in Oz stay on welfare indefinitely rather than survive by committing crime. is it not cheaper to provide UB than to process people as felons?

It may be "cheaper" but incentivization is one big problem.

I am pretty much anti-prison. Crimes should be punished exclusively by community service, flogging, and execution.

I also suspect that US has a high incarceration rate because a large group of people has a persistent victim mentality.

US is really doing very well as a country of 300M. Most successful welfare states have very high natural-resource-to-population ratios.

Canada is sitting pretty though. It has excellent natural resources like gold, tar sands, timber, fishery, and uranium. Also, it has only 32M people.

Moreover, the alleged "global warming" is supposed to open up new shipping routes across the Arctic.

Perhaps Vancouver is prime. :-P

Housing is expensive or considered scarced in much of the US mostly because of NIMBYism or other anti-growth efforts.

If unrestricted development is allowed, housing affordability will be reasonable according to market conditions.

I sound like someone completely incapable of compassion. Perhaps I am. But what if the optimal world requires such conditions? It is entirely possible or even likely.

Everyone "ought" to certain "basic" things. But this statement seems to be contrary to human nature and it will be proved impossible.

The trend is following the people voting for the party they precieve as having the greater chance of bailing out the FBs and GFs.

a post-election survey run by Labor here showed that people with a mortgage were more likely to vote Conservative, regardless of the neighbourhood, because the conservatives seemd to promise better 'economic management' or lower interest rates to be specific, and they had campaigned on this. when the conservatives were returned, interest rates rose a few times regardless, as it's the Federal Reserve who makes the decision, not the govt. hmm, some political education for the populace. the head of the Reserve had chosen NOT to weigh in durign the propaganda war leadign up to the election because 'he didn't want to be a third force in the election'. hmmm... it's time to elect a new populace...

Everyone “ought” to certain “basic” things. But this statement seems to be contrary to human nature and it will be proved impossible.

how can you say something is categorically within 'human nature' when people differ from each other and cultural attitudes differ over time? some people are more inclined to be compassionate than others. some societies are more compassionate than others. most people when directly confronted by someone in need will try to do something. most people abhor cruelty. but there are enough psychopaths to keep the misery going, such as in burma... we have evolved as a 'social' or communitarian animal as a survival mechanism. this is probably why we feel compassion for others who are genuinely in need due to circumstances beyond their control -- helping others to survive helps the species to survive. philosophically, we say we respect people's rights to autonomous personhood and to flourish when we are living in a very clear state of surplus.

how can you say something is categorically within ‘human nature’ when people differ from each other and cultural attitudes differ over time?

Human nature is pretty much universal. Virtual all humans are economic beings seeking maximization of self-interests.

some people are more inclined to be compassionate than others. some societies are more compassionate than others.

True. But very few people are capable of true compassion. Most display such emotion out of guilt or fear. Moreover, compassion towards individuals and compassion towards the human order are different and opposing.